Major Trends: 2013 and Beyond

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Version 1 | Public

Major trends – 2013 and beyond
Bobby Duffy
MD Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute,
Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London

© Ipsos MORI Version 1 | Public

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Start with
some
predictions
for 2013...


>
3

= 1/2 = 3/10

= 1/2
> = 4/10

= 1/5

4

61% think Britain
will fall back into
recession

Extraordinary year in 2012 – but still one big issue
....all seemed to be going well for a few years.... 5

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Brown becomes Cameron becomes
PM PM
70

60
The economy
50

40

30

20

10

0
May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May May
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Representative sample of c. 1000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Ipsos MORI Issues Index


Exceptional crisis – but worry about the economy is
the norm... 6

What would you say is the most/other important issue facing Britain today?

90
80
Economy
70
60
50
Unemployment
40
30
20
10 Inflation/prices

0

Ipsos MORI Issues Index


Not a global crisis – and we’re in the unhappiest group
7

Net last five years good for country
Brazil
40%
R² = 0.49

20%

Sweden
0%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Net disagree -20% Net agree
country will country will
never be the Belgium never be the
-40%
same again France same again
-60%
GB
Italy
-80% Spain
Hungary
Net last five years bad for country
Base: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September 4-18 2012. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor


A new reality – where we expect our children to have a
lower quality of life than us 8

When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life
than you, or about the same?

% Higher % Lower

November 2011
23 42 35

April 2003
43 45 12

Base: 1,006 British adults aged 18+, 19th-21st November 2011 Ipsos MORI


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How do we
feel about
local?


Satisfaction with local govt as high as it’s been...
10

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way your local council runs
things?

50%
45%
40%
Net Satisfaction

35%
30%
25%
20% National net satisfaction

15%
10%
5%
0%
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Year surveyed
Ipsos MORI


Trust is up…
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Trust % Local Council
70
64
61 62
60
60 57
52 54

50
Per cent

40

30

20

10
2001 2003 2005 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Core sample in England; (2001: 9,270, 2003: 8,859, 2005: 9,104, 2007-08: 8,729, 2008-09: 8,706, 2009-10: 8,677, 2010-11: 9,521) Ipsos MORI


People recognise councils have an impact on everyday
lives 12

From this list, which two or three of the following do you believe have most impact on
people’s everyday lives?
Change since 2006 ±%points
Media 63% +9

Local councils 50% +1

Business 44% +7

Civil service 23% +3

European Union 20% n/a

Westminster Parliament 19% -8

Prime Minister 17% -7

Cabinet 5% -2
Scottish Parliament/ n/a
Welsh Assembly 6%
(asked in Wales/ Scotland only)
Don’t know 4%
Base: 1,156 British adults 18+. Fieldwork dates: 13th - 19th November 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI


Clear preference for local decision-making
13

Who do you trust most to make decisions about how services are provided in
your local area?

2%
8%

Your local council
11%

The Coalition
government

Neither

79% Don't know

75% of Conservative voters
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+ Ipsos MORI, January 2013


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Version 1 | Public

Some love for local – because some
loathing of national politics?

Trust in politicians never been high...
15

...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?

100
90 Doctors
80
Teachers
70
60
50 Ordinary man/woman in the street

40 Civil servants

30
Politicians
20
10 Journalists
0
1983 1993 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011

Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn


How trusted are local government professions?
16

...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?

100
90 Doctors
80
Teachers
70
60
50 Ordinary man/woman in the street

40 Civil servants Local Councillors

30 Managers in Local Government
Politicians
20
10 Journalists
0
1983 1993 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011

Base: c.1,000-2,000 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Medical Associatypn


But this is serious...
17

How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this
country above the interests of their own political party?

40
% “almost never”
30

% 20

10
A real crisis of trust?
0

Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2009


And confidence in the government’s policies on public
services falling… 18

Do you agree or disagree… “In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the
state of Britain’s public services”
2001 General Election (Jun 01) 2010 General Election;
2005 General Election Brown as PM Cameron as PM
% net (May 05) (Jun 07) (May 10)
agree 20 22

10
6
3
0
-2 0

-10 -10
-14 -13 -13
-18 -19 -17
-20 -21 -20
-22 -22
-27 -28 -27
-30 -28 -28 -29
-34 -32
-40

c.1,000 British Adults Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor


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There’s also a
local/national
contrast in
blame for cuts


Who’s getting the blame for cuts now?
20

From what you know, who do you think is most to blame for the level of cuts
to public services?

31
The previous Labour government
26

29
Banks
23

18 March 2011
The state of the global economy
21 January 2013

10
The Coalition government
21

5
Local Councils
4



And when you look at local services?
21

The previous Labour 25
government 26
Most to blame for the
11 level of cuts to local
Banks council services?
23
Most to blame for the
The state of the 17 level of cuts to public
global economy 21 services?

The Coalition 30
government 21

13
Local Councils
4



Are people expecting more for less? Or willing to pay
more for the same? 22

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following
statements

Disagree Agree

30% strongly 12% strongly
I am personally happy to accept less from my
local council than I currently get in order to 57 40
help pay off the national debt

I would be happy to pay more council tax if it
helped my local council maintain current 64 34
levels of service
36% strongly 9% strongly



Majority haven’t noticed changes to service – BUT...
23

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with each of the following
statements
Disagree Agree
North a bit more likely to have noticed
– but largest differences by class and party support

I haven’t really noticed any changes to the
34 65
services provided by my local council

The cuts in local council services have gone
47 48
too far and will lead to social unrest

Agree = 29% Conservatives, 60% Labour
Base: 1,015 British adults 18+
Around one in four people agree with both statements.... MORI, January 2013
Ipsos


There is worry about the future...
24

How concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of cuts [to local council
services] on you and your family in the next 12 months?

Local council services Cuts generally

1 6
12 5
21 Very 19
concerned
Fairly
concerned
Not very 28
concerned
32
Not at all
concerned
34 Don't know 42



Varies as you’d expect…
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% very or fairly concerned about the effect of the cuts on them and their
families

77
69 72 72
61 62 60 61
55 58
54 52 54

All AB C1 C2 D E Up to £20k - £35k - £55k+ 1-2 3 services 4+
£19k £35k £55k services services

Social grade Income Public service use

Base: All members of the public interviewed online in GB (1,009); fieldwork, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI


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Version 1 | Public

Two other key trends…


Our generational balance is changing fundamentally –
four roughly equal-sized and very different generations... 27

Proportion of UK adult (18+) population from each generational grouping
100%

90% % pre war generation
80%

70%

60%

50%
% Baby boomers
40%

30%

20% % Generation X
10%
% Generation Y
0%
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Source: Eurostat


Support for political parties is declining – maybe not by as much
as expect?... 28

Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Source: British Social Attitudes


...driven by rock solid generational pattern
29

Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

70%

60%

50%
% ‘yes’

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Pre war Baby boomers Generation x Generation y

Each sample point represents >100 respondents BSA. Population data from Eurostat


Declining support for more welfare spending...
30

“the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,
even if it leads to higher taxes”
70%

60%
Agree total

50% 55%

39%
40%

30%
22% Disagree total 28%
20%

10%

0%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


Generations are very different...
31

“the government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor,
even if it leads to higher taxes”
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%
@BobbyIpsosMORI
0%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)



32

Lot of focus on “Nudging”
behaviour change, using it
in demand management,
pensions, on organ
donation and in letters
from tax collectors…..


33

“If a man sees a
fly, he aims at it”

“Schhpillage
was down by
80%...”


34

Explosion of
behavioural data
...mobile in
particular

90% smartphone ownership in 2-3 years...
35

60%

Any Smartphone
50% 50 (net)

40%

30%

23
20% 20
17
12 13
10%
9 9

0%
Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul' 11 Nov' 11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12 Nov '12

Base: circa 1,000 GB adults aged 15+ per wave Source: Ipsos MORI


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37


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Location & URL Behavioural Data
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By Location we can identify, volume, demographics, web use and web based App use

Identify the
demographics by
location Web & web based app:
before, during & after
they’ve been at location

Identify the volume of
people by location,
where they have come
from, where they go to


Paste co-
brand logo
Everything Everywhere’s Customer Database here
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Demographically Profiled Phone Usage

Mobile Web
Domain
Duration on site
28 million Session length
Previous/next sites
UK SIMS = D.O.B, visited
15 million Postcode
& gender Amount of data
uploaded/downloaded
consumers

Geo Location


Location & URL Behavioural Data
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Saturday 30/06: 124,000 People at Oxford Circus search on the mobile web

4,509 went 364 went on
on to BBC to Pornhub

3,048 went
on to Ebay 1,264 went
on to TFL


A day in the life of XX borough...
43

•Where people go at different points of day
•Who goes where? Profile by individual/geo-
demographics
•Who never leaves?
•What media do they look at, generally and
about local issues?
•Can you trigger interaction when residents
go to particular places/do particular things?
•Can this be linked to other data?

In conclusion...
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• There is definitely a crisis of trust in political institutions…
• …not really affecting local government – yet
• Most haven’t noticed cuts yet – a real credit to public services
and councils
• But fearful about the future for services, and for themselves
• Criticism of local government not working for central government
– but opinions likely to shift more as people notice change
• Need to understand your whole population, generational
differences increasingly important...
• Huge opportunities from technology to understand behaviours
and interact more
• Good luck...

Thank you
Bobby.duffy@ipsos.com
@BobbyIpsosMORI

Major Trends: 2013 and Beyond

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