Who pays for mobile broadband?
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This presentation was given as a teaser at the Open Mobile Summit 2011 in London followed by a Fireside talk on "Who pays for mobile broadband?".
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Who pays for mobile broadband?
- 1. Who pays for mobile broadband?Open Mobile Summit, June 8th 2011 London, UK. Dr. Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology EconomicsTechnology, Deutsche Telekom.
- 2. A bygone time … not so long ago ...When 1 + 1 was close to 2. Blablabla ... Bla … Mobile Network We talked (a lot) Rarely did we use the (mobile) web. We SMS’ed (even more) 2 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 3. A new paradigm … 1 + 1 is no longer “just” 2 ... Applications have “taken over” the communications. 1 User 1+ Device Many applications User & application initiated bandwidth demand. Device & application (IP addr, keep alive, …) driven signaling resources. 3 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 4. Its all in the data package ... Mobile revenues in an Apps centric world could decline rapidly. Western Europe ARPU development in Euro Illustration CS Voice SMS & MMS PS Data 23.0 22.4 By 2015 more than 70% of users have a smartphone 6.2 ? 3.3 3.4 3.8 12.7 15.7 13.0 6.2 6.5 2010A 2015E Mobile centric 2015E Apps centric Source 2010 & 2015 Pyramid Research March 2011 Western Europe. 4 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 5. When the mobile network becomes a bit-pipe ... Apple iTune promotion in NL ... free downloads. 9× increase in peak throughput. More than twice the total volume. 30+ thsd downloads in the peak. Promotion day Normal 5 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 6. Smartphone traffic tsunami ... and growth expected to continue for quite a few years more... Smartphone indicators ×7 Data signaling Problems! May – June 2010 (Netherlands). “iPhone overload T-Mobile (NL) network” (Volkskrant, May 2010). “T-Mobile (NL) gives compensation”. (2 month no data charge & iPhone users gets €30.) “T-Mobile (NL) admits not able to handle data growth in its mobile network“ (Tweakers.net). ×6 Smartphones ×4 Throughput ×5 Volume December 2008 to December 2010 Illustration 6 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 7. Smartphone usage ... 2GB = unlimited ... for most. Monthly volume relative to Average usage: >2GB 3% of users with 30% of volume Outside bundle: 4% of users with 35% of volume Illustration Laptops Today ca. 20% unlimited subscriptions takes ca. 60% of data volume. Less than 2% of Laptops takes more than 20% of data volume. 7 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 9. LTE deployment will be accelerated.
- 10. In-door off-loading to WiFi and Femto.HSPA only - No LTE HSPA, with LTE deployment HSPA+LTE, 50% off - load 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Operator illustration 8 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 11. Network sharing a way to profitability and cash. > 7 years < 5 years 4 – 8 years The best sharing strategy depends on the business cycle and technology age. LTE UMTS & GSM -> LTE HSPA / UMTS HSPA+ Rollout Phase (primarily coverage) Steady State (capacity & in-fill) Modernization (replacement) Illustration Rollout Steady state Modernization Significant Capex savings. Substantial Opex prevention. Best shared network. Little Capex benefits. Substantial Opex savings. Significant write-offs & re-structuring costs. Significant Capex savings. Substantial Opex savings. Minor write-off. Re-structuring costs. 9 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 12. The smartphone … The “killer” device and its “killer” applications… The smartphone … The “killer”device and its “killer”applications… 10 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 13. Key challenges.What we need to be passionate about. How to spend it How to earn it back 11 Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Mobile Open Summit 2011, June 8th, 2011, London, UK.
- 14. Acknowledgement: I am indebted to my fantastic team for always being patient with my data requests, for their great suggestions and support in creating this presentation. The key value proposition of a mobile network is .... mobility Let the discussion begin! Contact: kim.larsen@t-mobile.nl Mobile: +31 6 2409 5202 http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen