2008 Bird flu ( HPAI ) outbreak impact in Assam ( India ) as assessed during June 2009

Post 2008 Bird flu (HPAI) outbreak
scenario in Assam ( North East India ):
Dr.M.Islam Barbaruah and Dr.Monjul Islam
Regional Risk Assessment of HPAI: FAO,
Bangkok 28-29 April,2010

Assam with an area of 78,438 sq km is a gateway state of a
strategically important region of India, that shares 98 percent
of its regional borders with international neighbors such a
China, Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh : Issues – Physical
Connectivity, Dependence for trade route, Psychological distance, Feeling of
deprivation, Illegal migration, Conflicts & Terrorism.
USD 527
USD 361
Poverty rate 36.09% against India’s 26%.

The population of the state (2003) is 26.6 million. There are
3.7 million cultivators and 1.2 million agricultural laborers.
Agriculture and allied sectors that employs 69 pc of total
workforce, productivity is amongst the lowest within India.
Being a state with limited benefits of green revolution
technologies and climatic uncertainties e.g. flood / erosion etc.
livestock / poultry has potential to contribute to onfarm
diversification and intensification.
Livestock products are integral part of local diet as more than
95 percent of the population are non-vegetarian.

0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Rice
Wheat
Pulses
Food Grain
Oil Seeds
Fruits
Vegetables
Spices
India
Assam
Performances
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Human Population
Growth Trend
Milk Production
Growth trend
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Human Population
Growth Trend
Meat Production
Growth Trend
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Human Population
Growth Trend
Egg Production Growth
Trend
Per capita milk 69 gm against recommended 208 gm
Per capita egg 17 number against recommended 180 Per capita meat 930 gm against recommended 10.8 kg
Agricultural Productivity

The distribution of local birds per square km ( as calculated for
North Eastern Region of India) is 71
Total indigenous poultry population (2003 ) of Assam is 21.66m.
This is around 4 percent of indigenous poultry population in
India and 55 percent of Northeast region.
Total chicken meat production from indigenous poultry is 21%
of the total meat production in Assam.
The government is popularizing improved breed of dual purpose
chicken and duck in the state.
The Backyard Poultry sector – At a glance
Assam is the 2nd leading duck state in India with a population of
5 million ducks.

Improved Poultry and Women Self Help Groups
Picture courtesy: Dr.Dishanta Dutta

Input market Chicken raising Out put market
HE
Hatcheries
DOC
Poultry feed
Medicines
&feed
supplement
Equipments
and
appliances
Marketintermediaries
Individual farmer
- self capital
Farmer – growing
with small traders
Marketintermediaries
Retail
wet market
Hotels and
specialized
food joints
Consumers
Farmer – under
contract farming
with large companies
14% Market share as
on June’2009
Structure of Commercial Poultry Sector in Assam

It is estimated that about 0.08 -1 m families are directly or
indirectly engaged with commercial broiler chicken sector of
Assam. In 60% of cases farm size managed by these families
is less then 1000.
Commercial Broiler chicken input market (June ‘09 )
Different
inputs
Volume Rate (Rs) Total amount
(Million Rs.)
Percent
Market share
Hatching
eggs (Lac no)
25.5 14 35.7 13.5
DOC (Lac
no)
31.4 22 69.08 26
Feed (ton) 8478.0 17000 144.126 54.5
Medicine
and feed
supplement
5 X 31.4 15.70 6
Total 264.60~5.8 m USD 100
The Commercial sector

Inputs Rate
(Rs.)
Amount / volume
required
Total cost (Rs)
200 500 1000 200 500 1000
DOC 20/DOC 200 500 1000 4000 10000 20000
Feed 18/Kg 700 1750 3500 12600 31500 63000
Litter
materials
60/ bag 5 12.50 25 300 750 1500
Medicines,
vaccines and
disinfectants
5 / bird L.S. L.S. L.S. 1000 2500 5000
Labour 3000/ batch 1 1 1 3000 3000 3000
Electricity 0.50 /bird L.S. L.S. L.S. 100 250 500
Shed
depreciation
10% /
annum
(1.50)/sq.ft
/batch
200 500 1000 300 750 1500
Total 21300 48750 94500
Cost of rearing: Small holder Commercial Broiler
Chicken ( June’2009)


Particulars
( Cost as on June’09)
Farm size ( Number of birds )
200 500 1000
Total chick placed (no) 200 500 1000
Mortality (@5%) 10 25 50
Live / Ready birds (no) 190 475 950
Avg. Body wt (Kg)
(FCR= 2:1)@1.75 kg per bird
332.5 333 831.25 831 1662.5 1663
Total cost of rearing 21300 48750 94500
Cost of production /Kg in Rs (
USD )
64.0
( 1.42 )
58.66
( 1.30 )
56.83
( 1.26 )
Av.Market Price per Kg (
Whole Sale as on June’09 )
Rs. 77 ( USD 1.7 )

Cost of Commercial Broiler meat Production in
Small holder farms vis a vis Price

It was the fifth incidence in India and third within the North-
eastern region. The outbreak covered 10 districts within a span of
27 days. Total of 5, 12,221birds were estimated to be susceptible
out of which 2,697 died and 5, 09,524 birds were culled.
The HPAI outbreak of 2008
15 out of 18
epicenters,
outbreak is
reported in
backyard
poultry.

Average time required for suspect to confirmation is 4.6
days. The longest time required for Confirmation to start of
operation in one case is 36 days. Total down time /
confusion period =6 months+ ( Nov-July’09, formal )
The Response

Regional Risk Assessment of HPAI:
FAO, Bangkok 28-29 April,2010
September
November
Peak time
January
Investment t
Bird flu out
break
June
No sale
No
feed
Distress sale / Body wt
loss
Cash eat up
Increase in demand
No cash/ credit to
restart
Revival period
(?)
Down
time
The sequence of events
July
Official lifting of all
sanctions

The Impact ( Quantitative )
 The government of Assam incurred expense of about Rs.50
million in conducting HPAI control operation during 2008
outbreak. Out of this amount 34% went to compensation and
66% went to logistics. (Cumulative number of RRT deployed
in the operation was 3,184, Expense excludes cost of
surveillance, diagnosis and law and order control etc.)
 Total of 5, 12,221birds were estimated to be susceptible out of
which 2,697 died and 5, 09,524 birds were culled. Percent of
birds culled in commercial sector is 78%. Similarly, destruction
of feed, hatching egg etc. affected mostly commercial sector.
 Total market value of poultry and poultry products destroyed
during the operation is approximately rupees 28 million.

The Impact ( Quantitative, Contd. )
 Total compensation paid was rupees 17 million. This is 60.67
percent of estimated market value of destroyed items. Farmers
who have not cooperated in the culling operation ( where
forces are being used to search and destroy) are excluded from
getting compensation.
 Due to complete ban on transport of poultry and poultry related
products in the state, farmers of even non-infected zone
incurred losses. In some cases market ban was imposed in non
infected zone. Being rapid in nature, the study could not
quantify this impact.
 There is huge foregone Income across value chain during the
down time. The outbreak occurred amidst peak season –Sept –
March. The loss for farmers alone can be quantified as more
than 200 million rupees. ( taking 6 month as down time ).

Particulars
Average Market rate Oct- Nov’08
Volume Rate (Rs) Total amount
(Million Rs.)
Market share
(%)
Hatching eggs
(Million no)
3.5 10 35 7.5
Doc ( Million
no)
3.14 17 53.38 11.5
Feed (ton) 8478.0 17 Per Kg 144.13 31
Ready bird
(Kg)
4455.0 53 Per Kg 236.12 50
Total 468.62 100
Calculation of down time losses for farmers
Cost of production, post bird flu is assumed at Rs. 45 per kg.
Value of the ready bird at farm gate level = 4455 ton x Rs. 45000 = Rs. 200.48
million
Value of ready bird after one month of rearing at whole sale rate: Rs. 236.12 million
Income in a month : (Rs. 236.12 – 200.48)= Rs. 35.6 million

Other losses ( Not quantified )
 Cost for keeping birds for extended period
 Distress selling
 Cost on employee and infrastructure maintenance
 Cost of visiting offices / demonstration
 Increased cost of borrowing ( Money lenders
increased the rate of interest, banks refused in absence
of government formal order )

Down time losses of Input sector ( A glimpse)
Keggs farm, UD Hatchery and Assam poultry ( all known
players ) had to destroy 15000, 8400, 10000 hatching eggs
respectively.
The Golaghat Poultry Project of Assam Livestock and
Poultry Corporation (ALPCO) rearing improved deshi bird
also incurred loss as a consequence of the bird flu outbreak
though it remained in non-infected zone. Forced culling of
4000 DOC was done, 16000 hatching eggs were
destroyed, 1900 parent stock died due to lack of feed.

Species of bird /
input
Number
culled
Compensation
rate ( Rs. per
unit )
Total
( Rs.)
Calculated
Market
rate ( Rs
per unit )
Total
( Rupees )
Adult backyard 48409 50 2420450 96 4647264
Backyard chick 64563 20 1291260 20 1291260
Adult commercial 202123 40 8084920 79.5 16068778.5
Commercial chicks 167115 20 3342300 20 3342300
Adult ducks / geese 25328 75 1899600 110 2786080
Ducklings 1956 35 68460 35 68460
Eggs 163166 2 326332 3 489498
Feeds (Kg) 12795 6 76770 17 217515
Total 17510092 28911155.50
Culling Vs Compensation
Assumptions:
Body weight: Adult backyard bird @ 1.2 Kg /bird; Adult commercial bird @1.5kg /bird
Market rate (whole sale rate): Adult backyard bird@ Rs. 80/Kg; Adult commercial bird
@Rs. 53/Kg, ducks / geese Rs.110 per unit.

Impact ( Qualitative : Farm Level )
 Loss of confidence on government’s capability to handle crisis.
 Strained relationship between farmers and vets participating in
culling operations.
 Feeling of being deceived ( Relating to false promises being
made by local administration )
 Feeling of insecurity ( not being able to restock after culling and
/ or manage quality protein for family )
 Feeling of being excluded ( Inadequate consultation, Arbitrary
fixing of compensation e.g. Nearly same compensation for table
and hatching egg )
 Mental trauma ( e.g. culling in-front of Children, Vets / farmer
who reported incident of deaths are being humiliated by other
farmers )
 Loss of livelihood and insurance support for large number of
rural poor thriving on backyard poultry.

Impact ( Qualitative : Government Level )
 Unexpected expense charged on existing central sector schemes
e.g. Assistance to States for Control of Animal Disease
(ASCAD) resulted in to non completion of important planned
activities under that schemes.
 Increase allocation for future preparedness, awareness and
communication.
 ‘Work Avoidance syndrome’ when it comes to promotion of
schemes meant for augmenting poultry link income /
employment.
 Increase realization of private sector role.
 Realization of skill and man power gap in handling
emergencies.

Particulars Approx. Quantity
Before Outbreak 6 months
after
Hatching Eggs ( Million numbers) 3.4 -3.6 2.5. -2.6
DOC
( Million numbers)
In Assam 2.72- 2.88 2.0 -2.08
Import 0.33- 0.35 0.25 –
0.275
Total 3.05 – 3.23 2.25 – 2.36
Feed (in tons) 8235. 0 -8721. 0 6075. 0 -
6353. 0
Ready birds
(in tons)
In Assam 3672. 0 – 3888. 0 3037.5 –
3179.25
Import 600. 0- 750. 0 1050. 0-
1200. 0
Total 4272. 0 – 4638. 0 4087.5 –
4379. 2
The Market: Pre and Post outbreak

Particulars As per average market of October – November’08
and June ‘09 (whole sale rate)
Rate before
outbreak
Rate after outbreak Percent increase
Hatching eggs 10 12.75 27.5
Doc 17 24 41.18
Feed 17 18 6.0
Ready bird 53 77 45.0
The Inflation: Pre and Post outbreak
**The study could not record any decrease in demand of broiler Chicken

Major Observed Trend ( Post 2008 HPAI outbreak )
 Emergence of Integration operation by established
companies. ( Trader control market to Integrator control
market )
 Predominantly credit to cash transactions at all levels.
 Decrease import of inputs e.g. Feed, Hatching egg etc.
 Increase inter state import of ready-bird.
 Price increase of finished products e.g. Chicken, Table
Egg
 Current growth trend is mostly in 500-1000 bird category.
 Farms above 1000 birds are showing a decrease scale of
operation.

Suggestions:
 Strengthening of diagnostic infrastructure within the state. E.g.
BSL-4 level diagnostic facilities
 Strengthening of inter agency cooperation, capacity building
and communication programs.
 Careful handing of future containment operations involving
stakeholders and taking care of losses due to long down time.
 Alternative arrangement for non-infected zones.
 Development of dynamic database of poultry sector of Assam (
Compulsory registration of farms through Industry / farmer
associations )
 Support to development of tailor made business continuity kit
for use of value chain players.

This presentation is based on research supported by:
North Eastern Development and Finance Corporation Ltd.,
Guwahati, Assam ( India )
Contact: barbaruah73@yahoo.co.in

2008 Bird flu ( HPAI ) outbreak impact in Assam ( India ) as assessed during June 2009

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Tendances

Tendances (17)

En vedette

En vedette (20)

Similaire à 2008 Bird flu ( HPAI ) outbreak impact in Assam ( India ) as assessed during June 2009

Similaire à 2008 Bird flu ( HPAI ) outbreak impact in Assam ( India ) as assessed during June 2009 (20)

Plus de Miftahul Barbaruah

Plus de Miftahul Barbaruah (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

2008 Bird flu ( HPAI ) outbreak impact in Assam ( India ) as assessed during June 2009