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Overcoming barriers for the scaling up of ee appliances in nigeria
1. Overcoming barriers for
the scaling up of EE
CONFIDENTIAL
appliances in Nigeria
Jason Yapp
Document
Oct 2011
Date
This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be
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organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company.
This material was used by McKinsey & Company during an oral
presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion.
2. Unit of measure
Content
•Lessons learnt
•Energy Baseline scenarios
•Barriers analysis
•UNDP GEF EE Outcomes &
outputs
•Challenges
* Footnote
Source: Source 2 2
3. Win-Win-Win Solutions
Unit of measure
The Ghana Standard, GS362: 2001, label and test procedure for Room
Air Conditioners was gazetted in December 2001
•Save Ghanaian consumers an average of $64 million annually in energy
bills.
•Average price increase 3%, 9% improved efficiency = Payback < 9 months
•In 2003 compliance with the standard freed up 13 MW of generating capacity
• By 2013 will be saving the equivalent of a 150MW generating plant.
• By 2020, this standard alone will be saving about 950GWh per year,
freeing up nearly 250MW of generating capacity that can be used for other
productive purposes, and that number will increase through 2030, all at net
negative cost to the economy (virtual power generation).
• In contrast, the 200MW Bui hydropower plant is being constructed at a cost
of nearly US$600 million.
• Carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by about 2.8 million tons over 30
years (104,890 tons per year).
* Footnote
Source: Source 3
4. Unit of measure
• Population - 150
million
• Well endowed with
oil and natural gas
• Largest emitters of
GHG in Africa –
off-gas flaring
* Footnote
Source: Source 4 4
5. Energy Supply Challenges
Unit of measure
PHCN 11 companies
Current Electricity Demand estimated at over 15,000 MW
(Peak), 10,000 MW during off peak.
Current Power Generation: 2,500 MW – 4,000 MW
Deficit 7,500-11,000 MW leading to frequent load
shedding, poor access and energy poverty
Caused by inefficient generation, interruptions in gas
supplies, high transmission & distribution losses and non
technical losses (pilfering and clandestine connection)
* Footnote
Source: Source 5
6. Supply Challenges
Unit of measure
Electricity demand is increasing at about 7% annually
Focus on supply side management at the expense of
demand side management
Heavy reliance on diesel generators – 60 million
owners and cost USD 92 million per year
Dirty, noisy and smelly
Could this UNDP GEF EE project provides some
solutions?
* Footnote
Source: Source 6
7. Unit of measure
Unreliable Infrastructure services
7
* Footnote
Source: Source 7
8. Household income and electricity access
Unit of measure
Lack of access to sustainable energy will
impede economic growth and national
*
development and increase poverty
Footnote
Source: Source 8 8
9. World Energy Development Index 2010
Unit of measure
Malaysia= 0.83
IEA’s Energy Development Index is an average
of four indicators:
ii) per capita commercial energy consumption
(toe);
Nigeria = 0.17
iii) per capita electricity consumption (toe);
iv) % population share of modern fuels (e.g.
LPG, CFL, LED) and
v) % population share of access to electricity.
9
* Footnote
Source: Source 9
10. Overarching Climate Change Strategy
Unit of measure
National Development Priorities Vision
2020/NEEDS/President 7 Points Agenda
Danger Low Carbon, High Growth,
Climate Resilient, Social
Opportunity
Equity & Sustainable
Development
Mitigation Low Carbon Path Adaptation
Climate
Industrial Renewable Natural
Energy Energy Resilient
Emissions Energy Resource
Efficiency Access Human
Reductions Management
Development
Methane Vulnerability and
Diversified
ODS Phase Energy efficient capture/solar Adaptation
Livelihoods
Out appliances and Hydropower Assessment
building
Decentralized/ Adaptation Adaptive
Feed In Habitat
Off grid Mainstreaming
Tariff Conservation
Territorial Approach on Climate Change
Climate Change Governance
Capacity Development and Resource Mobilization
UNDAF and UNDP CPAP 2009-2012
* Footnote
Source: Source 10
12. Myth and reality
Unit of measure
Myth: When an appliance is left on standby, it’s off.
Reality: Many people presume electrical products are off, when
they are on standby. In this mode, they continue to consume
power. Be especially wary of equipment that has a remote
control: this is a tell tale sign that the equipment is on standby
while waiting to receive the “on” signal from the remote. A red or
green LED light is another tell tale sign.
Myth: It’s better to leave fluorescent lights on rather than turning
them off when you leave a room.
Reality: This consumes unnecessary energy. A fluorescent tube
uses over five hundred times more energy if left on for fifteen
minutes than the energy needed to restart it.
* Footnote
Source: Source 12
13. Barriers to EE Investment
Unit of measure
1. Policy and Regulatory
• Lack of appliance standards and labels
• Highly subsidized electricity tariff – no incentive
to save
• Lack of metering – no ‘feel’ of electricity usage
and opportunity cost is high
• Procurement policies favour lowest cost
• Import duties on EE equipment
• Unclear or underdeveloped institutional
framework to support EE
• Lack of credible testing centre
• Poor enforcement (Custom and SON)
* Footnote
Source: Source 13
14. Barriers to EE Investment
Unit of measure
2. Appliance suppliers (MIDR)
•Limited demand for EE goods and
services
•Fluctuating voltages and load shedding
•Appropriate design (screw/pin, tubular –
transport damage)
•Affordability
* Footnote
Source: Source 14
15. Barriers to EE Investment
Unit of measure
3. End user
•Lack of awareness of EE
•Inferior imported EE products – lack of
confidence – dumping ground
•Concept of energy savings is ‘virtual’ – cannot
‘see’
• Lack of incentives
• Lack of credible data
• Disempower to act and take informed decision
• Media unfamiliar with EE concept
* Footnote
Source: Source 15
16. EE Governance for Market Transformation
Unit of measure
4. Pilot CFL
3. Capacity
Sensitized Development
Enabling Manufacturers Who?
Environment-
Importers - Public/private
Market Drivers
1.EE Policy & Distributors sectors
Retailers - Policymakers
Legislation
- Lawmakers
2. S & L
EE Appliances - Industry
supported by
- Commerce
accredited Incentives - Consumers
testing centres Fiscal
Appliances: Microfinance What and how?
CFL Carbon - Awareness
Street lights
- Publicity - Media
Refrigerators
Well informed - Co-benefits
Air-conditioners
Low Carbon, - Life cycle cost
Electric motors
analysis
Water Heaters Climate - Monetary and
Pumps Resilient and Energy saving
Sustainable - Carbon mitigation
Consumers
ECOWAS Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Centre
* Footnote
Source: Source 16
17. 4 years Annual Work Plan
Unit of measure 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
Outcomes Outputs M J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MA
OUTCOME 1: Output 1.1: Energy & GHG savings potential for
Enhancing the each main end-users in the residential and public
Capacities of all sector validated
relevant
stakeholders at Output 1.2: Develop an inventory for the
the national monitoring and data collection system for end-use
level regarding sales, energy demand and energy consumption
the concept, Output 1.3: Awareness of the political and policy
nature and decision makers’ on end-use energy efficiency
potential of options and potentials for GHG reductions
energy enhanced
efficiency in the
residential and Output 1.4: Energy efficiency policy and
public sector legislation drafted and approved by Parliament
OUTCOME 2:
DEVELOPME Output 2.1: National testing centres and
NT OF NEW certification procedures for promoting energy
ENERGY efficiency developed
EFFICIENCY
Output 2.2: Pilot program launched to test and
LEGAL
finalize appropriate energy efficiency schemes such
REQUIREME
as energy labels
NTS FOR A
SERIES OF
Output 2.3: National labelling content and format is
END-USE
designed, tested, validated and adopted
EQUIPMENT
IN NIGERIA
Output 2.4: A relevant multiyear timetable is set to
assure a coherent implementation
* Footnote
Source: Source 17
18. Unit of measure
GfK Retail Panel Nigeria - Covered Channels 2010
Examples GfK Panelmarket
Traditional Markets
Lagos Abuja Kano Ibadan Aba Onitsha Kaduna Port Harc. Benin
Computer GSM Village Ibrahim Taiwo Dugbe Ekeoha Elector-mart Ahmadu Bello Town Ring Road
Village Road Shopping Way
Neighbourhoo Sango Iweka Road Ikwerre Road Mission Road
Centre
GSM Village d Beirut Road Lagos Street
Iwo Road Emeka Offor Artillery/Aba New Benin
Pound Road
Ikeja Emab Plaza Plaza Road
Ogunpa
Ariaria
Idumota Wuze 2 Jerry O Olu Obasanjo
Challenge
St. Michael Plaza
Agege Zone 3 GSM Village
Road
Alaba Sharif Plaza
300 Port
Apapa Nyanya Harcourt
Road
Oshodi Maraba
Victoria
Island
* Footnote
Source: Source 18
19. Nigeria – Panel Activities 2010
Unit of measure
SINCE
Covered Mobile Phones January 2007
Product Smart phones January 2007
Groups CRT-TV/PTV (FLAT/Plasma) January 2008
AHS January 2009
DVD January 2009
Refrigerators January 2009
Airconditioners January 2009
Washing Machines January 2010
Deep Freezers January 2010
Freestanding Cookers January 2010
Covered Cities Lagos January 2007
Abuja January 2007
Kano January 2008
Expansion to Kaduna, Ibadan, January 2010
Onitsha, Aba, Port Harcourt &
Benin City
Audit 1.Monthly
Frequency 2.Weekly (By Request)
Coverage GSM 80%, CE 85%, MDA 85%
* Footnote
Source: Source 19
20. Unit of measure
Electrical Department Store in Lagos
* Footnote
Source: Source 20
24. Metering study
Unit of measure
Study 1
10 high/middle +
10 poor = 20 HH
Monitor for 1 year
– seasonal impact
Study 2
25 high/middle +
25 poor in 6
geopolitical
zones – monitor
monthly = 300
HH
* Footnote
Source: Source 24
34. Labels
Unit of measure
United States Source: US Federal Trade Commission 16CFR305
Europe Source: European Commission Directives 2003/66/EC and 94/2/EC
Korea Source: Korean Energy Management Corporation
Australia Source: Australian Department of Energy Efficiency and Climate change
* Footnote
Source: Source 34
35. 4 years Annual Work Plan
Unit of measure 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
Outcomes Outputs M J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MAM J J A S O N D J F MA
OUTCOME 3:
TRAINING OF Output 3.1: Enforcement of the Energy Efficiency
PROFESSIONAL requirement (through Standards, Codes, Labels or a
STAKEHOLDER combination of them) for market transformation
S AND PUBLIC
OUTREACH Output 3.2: The new regulations are understood and
ACTIVITIES & adopted by local manufacturers, importers, appliances
ENFORCEMENT distributors and the retail chain
OF THE NEW
ENERGY Output 3.3: Energy efficiency becomes priority in the
EFFICIENCY purchase of any equipment
LEGISLATION
Output 3.4: A system for the monitoring of the impact
of the new energy efficiency requirement developed.
Regular updates of the legislation in order to tighten the
energy efficiency requirement
OUTCOME 4: Output 4.1: A large scale pilot project for ‘Campaign
TRANSFORM for Energy Efficiency Lamps’ completed. A minimum
THE LIGHTING of million CFLs disseminated in household, commercial
MARKET: and public services in partnership with Government of
PROMOTION OF Cuba and ECOWAS
ENERGY
SAVINGS LAMPS
Output 4.2: Financial incentives provided to pro-active
(USD 400,000)
local importers and traders to sale EE products
Output 4.3: Provision for the recycling of compact
fluorescent lamps with the recovery of mercury
according to international best practices
OUTCOME 5:
PROJECT Output 5.1: Project management and implementation
MANAGEMENT support
(USD 227,273)
* Footnote
Source: Source 35
40. ECN - Cuban CFL project
Unit of measure
IBL CFL
Quan Monthly monthly
tity CFL energy energy Monthly
Type of (milli ILB usag Differe consum consum energy
light on) Savi usage e nce ption ption saved
bulbs ILB CFL ngs (MW) (MW) (MW) (MWh) (MWh) (MWh)
60>14 0.8 3.7
W 60 14 46 15.8 12.1 3,421 798 2,623
0.1 0.3
40>8 W 40 8 32 1.3 1.1 285 57 228
100>18 0.3
W 0.05 100 18 82 1.7 1.4 356 64 292
0.1
20>5 W 0.05 20 5 15 0.3 0.2 71 18 53
4.3
Total 1.0 19.1 14.8 4,134 937 3,197
* Footnote
Source: Source 40
41. ECN - Cuban CFL project
Unit of measure
2. Estimated expenditures Naira USD
i. Cost of 1 million CFLs (@
USD1.50 each) 224,717,850 1,498,119
ii. Spot survey 3,000,000 20,000
iii. Shipment and insurance 10,560,589 70,404
iv. Clearing and transportation 12,500,000 83,333
v. Publicity and Sensitization 2,500,000 16,667
vi. Distribution and installations 5,000,000 33,333
vii. Cuban experts 22,500,000 150,000
viii. Monitoring and evaluation 3,000,000 20,000
Total expenditure 283,778,439 1,891,856
3. Payback
Total monthly saving 101,181,455 674,543
Investment Payback (months) 2.8 2.8
* Footnote
Source: Source 41
42. Co-benefits of CFL project
Unit of measure
Million of CFLs installed 1 10 30
Carbon savings (tCO2e) 233,400 2,334,000 7,002,000
1. Customers benefits and cost
Annual cost of electricity saved 1,534,500 15,345,000 46,035,000
Incandescent cost avoided (USD) 1,000,000 10,000,000 300,000,000
Total 2,534,500 25,345,000 346,035,000
2. Utility benefits and costs
Total MW avoided from 1 million
CFLs 38.9 389 1167
Cost of power station development
avoided (USD) 38,900,000 389,000,000 1,167,000,000
Annual fuel cost avoided (USD) 31,600,000 316,000,000 948,000,000
Total 70,500,000 705,000,000 2,115,000,000
3. National benefits and costs
Avoided capacity cost (USD) 38,900,000 389,000,000 1,167,000,000
Avoided fuel cost (USD) 31,600,000 316,000,000 948,000,000
CDM revenue (USD) 2,334,000 23,340,000 70,020,000
Total 72,834,000 728,340,000 2,185,020,000
* Footnote
Source: Source 42
44. Reducing Peak Load
Unit of measure
Whilst the adoption of energy efficiency technologies in the west is a
matter of luxury, scaling up EE in Nigeria is a matter of survival. The
opportunity cost is far too high to ignore!
* Footnote
Source: Source 44
46. Mercury in CFL
Unit of measure
Energy experts estimate that lighting makes up approximately 14 % of the average household's
electricity account. As much as 80 % of that can be saved by replacing ordinary incandescent
light bulbs with energy efficient compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). Mercury, however, is an
essential, irreplaceable element in compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs); it's what allows the
bulb to be such an efficient light source.
This, however, raises a question about how safe and environmentally sound the use of CFLs is.
* Footnote
Source: Source 46
47. Myth and reality
Unit of measure
Myth: Screen savers save energy.
Reality: They are not designed to save energy. They help
maximise your screen’s useful life. Some screen savers actually
increase energy consumption.
Myth: Turning a computer on and off frequently uses more
power and damages the hard drive.
Reality: The belief that frequent shut-downs are harmful persists
from the days when hard drives did not automatically park their
heads when shut off. Modern hard drives are not significantly
affected by frequent shut-downs.
* Footnote
Source: Source 47
48. Industrial Sector
Unit of measure
Action needed from industry
Electricity usage optimisation needs to be driven by top management
• Participate in a voluntary 10% energy reduction programme – some SA companies have
already reduced by 10%
Identify opportunities for improved energy utilisation
• Process optimisation
• Technology improvements
• Shift usage to off-peak periods
Participate in Eskom’s demand saving programme
• Incentives available for energy savings projects
• Approval lead times improved considerably
Participation in Demand Market Participation Programme
• Incentives for hourly load reduction when tight system conditions prevail
* Footnote
Source: Source 48
49. Adaptive Project Management
Unit of measure
Policy
Nigeria GEF Focal Point (GEF FP),
makers and
Federal Ministry of Environment (FME)
Lawmakers
EE Steering Committee (EESC) to be Co-Chaired by FME (GEF FP) and
UNDP
ECN – NERC – PTFP – NCEEC – SON – MAN – EDAN – CPC – FOTE
Terms of reference and meet at least twice a year
Implementing Agency and Secretariat of the EESC
Energy Efficiency Unit lead by a Project Coordinator
To be domiciled at ECN
UNDP Support
* Footnote
Source: Source 49
50. Unit of measure Establishment Date
S & L in Africa
Type of Program
Country Equipment Type
Labeling MEPS Labeling MEPS
Ghana Room air conditioner & June 2005 2002 - Voluntary June Mandatory
Compact Fluorescent 2005
Lamps - Mandatory June
2006
Domestic refrigeration Nov 2009 Nov 2009 - Voluntary Nov - Voluntary
appliances 2009 Nov 2009
- Mandatory June - Mandatory
2010 June 2010
Banning of manufacturing Nov 2009 Nov 2009 - Voluntary Nov - Voluntary
and importation of 2009 Nov 2009
incandescent lamps, used - Mandatory June - Mandatory
refrigerator, freezers & 2010 June 2010
South Africa AC
CFLs 2003 - Voluntary -
Clothes Dryers - - Under consideration -
Clothes Washers 2005 - Voluntary -
Cooktops and - - -
Under consideration
Ranges/Ovens
Freezers 2005 - Voluntary -
Refrigerators 2005 - Voluntary -
Refrigerator-freezers 2005 - Voluntary -
Tunisia Refrigerators 2004 (2007) Mandatory
Egypt Clothes Washers 2003 2003 Mandatory Mandatory
Freezers 2003 2003 Mandatory Mandatory
Room Air Conditioners 2003 2003 Mandatory Mandatory
Refrigerators 2003 2003 Mandatory Mandatory
* Footnote
Source: Source 50
51. Challenges
Unit of measure
• This is a timely and strategic interventions but how to
ensure continuity beyond the GEF EE project?
• Will the CFL programme in Nigeria help to reduce
the peak demand and allow more citizen to gain
access to electricity?
• How to empower the citizens to own the project and
generate strong buy in to adopt a EE lifestyle?
• How will voltage fluctuation affect the success of the
programme?
• What is the potential to replicate this programme
across Nigeria and the ECOWAS region?
* Footnote
Source: Source 51
55. Residential sector
Unit of measure
Action needed from households
“If you’re not using it, switch it off.”
• Hot water heater: Switch off geysers between 06:00 and 22:00, reduce thermostat to 60
degrees, insulate geyser and water pipes and replace geysers with solar water
heaters using Eskom’s rebate programme
• Lighting: Replace incandescent light bulbs with energy savers, and switch off lights
in unoccupied rooms
• Bathing: Shower rather than bath as less hot water is used, and install an energy
efficient shower head
• Climate control:
• Minimise use of air conditioners by first opening windows to allow cool air to
circulate
• When using an air-conditioner keep the temperature setting between 18 – 22
degrees C
• Insulate ceilings to keep home cool in summer and warm in winter
• Pool pumps: Reduce the operating time to limit water circulation to twice a day and
set the pool pump to operate between 24:00 and 05:00
• Vampire appliance usage - Don’t leave appliances in standby mode. Unplug cellphone charger
• Participate in the Power Alert programme on national TV (SABC and etv)
* Footnote
Source: Source 55
59. Challenges
Unit of measure
• Economic incentives: phasing out subsidies, tax credits or feed-in
tariffs for renewable power
• Target economic/fiscal measures: landfill, CO2 or fuel taxes
• Regulation and standards: energy efficiency standards, bio-fuel
standards and electricity market regulation
• Market-based measures: green certificates and emissions trading
• Research and Development (R&D) for low-carbon technologies and
demonstration projects
* Footnote
Source: Source 59