Opening Remarks and Presentation from the Chair- The State of The Wireless Industry Chetan Sharma is President of Chetan Sharma Consulting and is one of the leading strategists in the mobile industry. Executives from wireless companies around the world seek his accurate predictions, independent insights, and actionable recommendations. He has served as an advisor to senior executive management of several Fortune 100 companies in the wireless space and is probably the only industry strategist who has advised each of the top 6 global mobile data operators. He is considered a leading authority on the mobile data technologies and consumer trends. Chetan Sharma, President, Chetan Sharma Consulting

1. State
of
the
Global
Mobile
Industry
CTIA
Research.
Technology.
Strategy.
Intellectual
Property.
Thought
Leadership
Summits.
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2. Chetan
Sharma
Consulting
§ 10
yr
old
Seattle
based
Strategy
firm
exclusively
focused
on
Mobile
§ Advisor
to
major
operators,
brands,
startups,
VCs,
and
Fortune
500
firms
around
the
world.
§ Strategy
for
each
of
the
top
6
global
mobile
data
operators
§ Have
a
unique
360o
view
of
the
ecosystem
• Market
Research
• Intellectual
Property
– Research
and
ForecasJng
– Strategy,
Audit,
&
Policy
– Patents,
Infringement
analysis
– CompeJJve
Analysis
– Patent
Mining
and
ValuaJon
– Market
Sizing
– LiJgaJon
• Strategy
– Consumer
&
Enterprise
• Mobile
Thought-­‐leadership
Summits
• Roadmap
– Mobile
Future
Forward
• Product
and
Technology
– Mobile
Breakfast
Series
Strategy
• Technical
Due-­‐Diligence
• R&D
• Business
Plan
Development
• Revenue
Models

3.
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5. MOBILE
FUTURE
FORWARD
MOBILE’S
THOUGHT-­‐LEADERSHIP
SUMMIT
09.10.12
SEATTLE
WWW.MOBILEFUTUREFORWARD.COM

6. Discussions
to
inform
your
strategy
• Is
4G
a
Game
Changer?
• InnovaJon
at
the
Edges
• Mobile
Payments
and
Commerce
• DisrupJon
is
in
the
air
• Mobile
Data
Services
from
the
Prism
of
the
CIOs
• Solving
the
50
year
Spectrum
Crunch
• Managing
the
Network
Growth
• OpportuniJes
in
the
Emerging
Markets
• The
Universe
of
Connected
Devices
• AnalyJcs
-­‐
How
to
Collect,
Manage,
and
Use
Data?
• MulJ-­‐modal
InteracJons
-­‐
How
Consumers
Adapt?
• At
the
IntersecJon
of
Social,
Mobile,
Commerce,
Content
• Ba=le
for
the
Home
–
playing
in
the
n-­‐screen
world
• What
do
Developers
Want?
• A
Smarter
Planet
-­‐
The
Role
of
Mobile
in
Enhancing
Lifestyles
and
in
Making
Everyday
Decisions
• Drivers
for
New
Sources
of
Revenue
• Role
of
RegulaJons
-­‐
Spectrum,
Privacy,
Net-­‐Neutrality
• Mobile
Cloud
CompuJng
• MoneJzing
the
network
• From
3
Screens
to
MulJ-­‐screens
• Mobile
Universe
in
2020
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7. Mobile
Executive
Summit
Sept
10th,
2012
Seattle
Ever
wondered
what
the
future
of
mobile
looks
like?
Join
us
for
an
extraordinary
day
of
executive
mobile
brainstorming
Contact
info@mobilefutureforward.com
for
sponsorship
and
speaking
opportunities
www.mobilefutureforward.com

8. Mobile
Breakfast
Series
June
7th
–
SeaFle
–
Mobile
Operators
and
OTT
Panel
Discussion
with
AT&T
June
22nd
–
Atlanta
–
Connected
Devices
Fireside
Chat
with
David
Christopher,
CMO,
AT&T
Mobility
Panel
Discussion
with
CNN
and
Synchronoss
June
29th
–
London
–
Mobile
Operators
and
OTT
Panel
Discussion
with
Telefonica,
Orange,
Rebtel,
Horizons
Venture
Excellent
Speakers.
Invaluable
Insights.
Peerless
Networking.
Contact
info@mobilebreakfastseries.com
for
sponsorship
and
speaking
opportunities
www.mobilebreakfastseries.com

9. Table
of
Contents
• Global
Mobile
State
of
the
Union
-­‐
2012
• Mobile
Impacts
Everything
• Mobile
Subscriber
and
Revenue
Growth
• Global
Markets
–
Data
Growth
• Devices
–
Changing
Landscape
• Mobile
VAS
and
OTT
• Mobile
Data
Traffic
Growth
and
SoluJons
• 2012
ExpectaJons
• Mobile
Web
and
Apps
Program
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11. Key
Industry
Micro-­‐Milestones
• Apple
captures
70%
of
mobile
device
profits
–
defies
gravity,
obliterates
compePPon
• Apple
mobile
appstore
downloads
exceed
25
Billion,
100
Million
on
Mac
–
redefines
distribuJon/ecosystem
• Samsung
ends
Nokia’s
14
year
reign
as
the
device
king
–
brutal
execuJon
• Android
300M
acJvaJons
–
Juggernaut
• Paypal
does
$7B
in
mobile
transacJon
volume
• Square
does
$5B
in
commerce
transacJon
volume
• Google
>
$5B
in
mobile
revenues
• Microsoh
revenues
from
Android
>
Windows
Mobile
• Pandora’s
70%
usage
is
on
mobile,
Twi=er’s
60%
of
the
usage
is
on
mobile
–
heading
towards
a
mobile-­‐dominant
world
• Facebook
Instagram
AcquisiJon
$1B
–
Mobile
only
acquisiJon
to
beef
up
mobile
strategy
• Angry
Birds
approaches
a
billion
downloads
• ESPN
does
3.1
billion
minutes
on
mobile
in
3/12
–
Mobile
is
where
the
acJon
is
• Skype
traffic
over
150
billion
minutes
–
OTT
pressure
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12. Key
Industry
Micro-­‐Milestones
cont’d
• KPN
messaging
volumes
decline
15%
YOY
–
OTT
pressure
• Mobile
Security
threats
grow
7x
in
last
two
years,
Android
threats
up
3000%
–
Mobile
IS
IT
• Cisco
BYOD
raPo
–
70%
(up
52%
in
2011)
-­‐
BYOD
is
creaPng
new
opportuniPes
for
vendors
• US
data
traffic
over
130
quadrillion
bytes/month
in
2011
–
Data
traffic
2X
YOY,
welcome
to
the
yo=abyte
era
• Fandango
sells
quarter
of
its
Jcket
on
mobile
–
commerce
is
happening
• Expedia
does
>
$1B
in
mobile
commerce
–
see
above
• Microsoh
Nokia
MulJ-­‐Billion
partnership
–
It
takes
two
to
tango
• Lightsquared
fails
–
Keep
your
friends
close,
enemies
closer
• Google
Motorola
$12.5B
–
IP
becomes
key
to
strategy
• Nortel
Patent
acquisiJon
$4.5B
–
IP
becomes
key
to
strategy
• AT&T/T-­‐Mobile
Failure
–
DOJ/FCC
put
down
the
gavel
• 40%
of
Kenya’s
GDP
comes
from
mobile
money
–
impact
of
mobile
is
pervasive
• Millennial
Media
IPO
at
$2B
–
first
public
market
validaPon
of
the
mobile
adverPsing
space
• HP
gives
up
on
Palm
–
CompeJJon
forces
Corporate
Schizophrenia
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13. MOBILE
IMPACTS
EVERYTHING

14. Mobile
is
the
single
most
pervasive
technology
ever
invented
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15. Mobile
is
now
50%
of
the
household
IT
budget

16. Context
–
the
most
valuable
currency
in
mobile
Demographics/Explicit
Profile
Interests/Implicit Profile Browsing, Watching,
Previewing, Flipping
Sensor data
Purchasing, Payments
User Intent
Communications
Location
Trusted
Concierge
Presence Search (Local, Online,
Media)
Physiological
parameters
Knowledge Transactions
DRIVES
(about User) (from User)
Calendar User Experience
Address Book
Gifting
Social Community
Intellectual Community
Trusted
Advisor
Advertising
M2M Pricing
Preferences
Security/Authorization
Devices in the vicinity
Big
OpportuniJes
in
becoming
the
trusted
3 Party Sources
Concierge/Advisor
to
the
individual
user
rd
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17. MOBILE
SUBSCRIBER
AND
REVENUE
GROWTH

18. Global
Mobile
Market
Snapshot
2011
Global
Mobile
Market
Snapshot
2012
Global
Subscriptions
Global
Smartphone
Users
Global Data
Users
©
Chetan Sharma Consulting, 2012
Global SMS
Users
Global Mobile
Broadband
Users
Each
dude
represents
approximately
113
million
humans
on
planet
Earth
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19. Global
Mobile
Technology
EvoluPon
First
time,
data
is
leading
the
charge
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20. Global
Mobile
Industry
conPnues
to
grow
at
a
healthy
pace
• Non
Operator
OTT
Revenues
at
4%
• Voice
will
fall
below
50%
in
2012
• Messaging
revenues
sJll
growing
but
fla=ening
growth
• Access
revenues
are
growing
quicker
than
any
other
operator
segment
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21. Mobile
is
over
2%
of
Global
GDP
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22. Operators
around
the
world
are
benefiPng
from
mobile
data
50
operators
with
>
$1B
in
data
revs
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23. Global
Mobile
Industry
Growth
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24. Global
Mobile
Leaders
-­‐
2012
Rank
By
Subs
By
Total
Revenue
By
Data
Revenue
1 China US US
2 India China Japan
3 US Japan China
4 Russia Brazil France
5 Brazil France UK
6 Indonesia Russia Korea
7 Japan UK Italy
8 Pakistan Germany Germany
9 Germany Italy Australia
10 Mexico India Brazil
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25. Global
Mobile
Leaders
-­‐
2012
Rank
By
Sub
PenetraPon
By
ARPU
By
Data
Usage
1 Hong Kong Japan Sweden
2 Finland Canada Finland
3 Portugal Switzerland Hong Kong
4 Austria US US
5 Singapore Norway Denmark
6 Sweden Australia Canada
7 Denmark France Australia
8 Greece Netherlands New Zealand
9 Germany Singapore Austria
10 Switzerland Israel Belgium
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26. Biggest
Telecom
Groups
Rank
By
Subs
By
Data
Revenue
By
NM
Data
Revenue
1 China Mobile Verizon Wireless AT&T Mobility
2 Vodafone NTT DoCoMo NTT DoCoMo
3 Telefonica AT&T Mobility Verizon Wireless
4 Bharti Airtel China Mobile China Mobile
5 America Movil Vodafone Vodafone
6 Orange Sprint Nextel Sprint Nextel
7 China Unicom KDDI KDDI
8 Vimplecom Telefonica Telefonica
9 TeliaSonera Softbank T-Mobile
10 Reliance T-Mobile Softbank
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27. US
–
Mobile
is
the
most
dominant
digital
channel
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28. Race
to
a
Billion
–
China
won
CorrupJon
drags
down
growth
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29. GLOBAL
MARKETS:
DATA
GROWTH

30. Mobile
Internet
3.0
–
Data
as
growth
engine
Mobile
Internet
-­‐ Leading
Global
Operators
(2011)
$40
3.0
Softbank
Japan
NTT
DoCoMo
$30 KDDI
Mobile
Data
ARPU
(USD)
2.0
Telstra
Vodafone
Italy 3
Australia
$20 Rogers Verizon
Sprint 3
Sweden
AT&T
O2
Germany Singtel
1.0
Orange
France
©
Chetan
Sharma
Consulting,
2012
T-­‐Mobile
US SFR
T-­‐Mobile
Netherlands
Bouygues SK
Telecom
$10 O2
UK
KT
T-­‐Mobile
Austria 3
UK Vodafone
UK
Telefonica
Vodafone
Spain TIM 3
Italy
Vodafone
Germany T-­‐Mobile
UKT-­‐Mobile
Germany
Orange
UK
China
Mobile
Turkcell China
Unicom
Vodafone
India AIS SMART
Bharti Reliance
$-­‐
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
Mobile
Data
as
%
of
Total
ARPU
Source:
h=p://chetansharma.com/Mobile_Internet_3.htm
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31. All
major
markets
experiencing
data
growth
–
Japan,
Australia,
US
leading
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32. DEVICES:
CHANGING
LANDSCAPE

33. Mobile
Devices
are
dominaPng
the
CompuPng
Ecosystem
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34. US
leading
in
smartphone
sales
US
accounts
for
roughly
40%
of
the
smartphone
sales
worldwide
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35. Smartphones
driving
data
growth
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36. Samsung
reaches
the
top
of
the
hill
in
market
share,
Nokia
struggling
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37. Apple
and
Samsung
control
50%
of
the
unit
smartphone
sales.
Nokia’s
share
decimated.
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38. Connected
devices
come
in
all
shapes
and
sizes
High
Data
Cards/Embedded
Superphones
Tablets
Video
Cameras
Data
Consumption
Automotive Smartphones
Cameras
eReaders
Picture
Frames
Low High
Number
of
Units
in
Market
Feature
Phones
©
Chetan
Sharma
Consulting,
2011
Digital
Signage/Kiosks
Security
Sensors
Health
Monitors
Copiers,
Scanners,
Printers
Wellness
Devices
Home
Sensors
Asset
Tracking
Energy
Meters
Vending
Grid
Sensors
Low
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39. US
Tablet
Market
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40. Plahorm
players
–
5
Amigos
of
mobile
Strengths
Weaknesses
Apple
Step
ahead
of
the
compeJJon.
Pressure
on
the
operator
margins
VerJcal
IntegraJon,
Brand
loyalty,
Dev
revenues,
Commerce,
DistribuJon
Google
Broad
adopJon.
Broad
Support.
Open
FragmentaJon.
Dev
revenues.
Lack
of
dev
plaqorm.
AmbiJous
clear
device
strategy.
Regulatory
microscope
Amazon
Deep
understanding
of
the
user,
New
to
the
device
arms
race,
Lack
of
Content,
Commerce,
DistribuJon,
OS
Margin
master
Microsoh
Bank
balance,
Operators
want
a
3rd
Late
to
mobile
party,
Lack
of
mobile
ecosystem
execuJon
Facebook
~
1
B
users,
500
M
mobile
Lack
of
coherent
mobile
strategy,
Lack
of
OS
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41. Apple
dominates
the
plahorm
ecosystem
Apple The
overall
market
is
basically
iOS
and
Android.
Apple
marketcap
>
Microsoh
+
Google
+
Facebook
or
Amazon
Marketcap
Microsoft
©
Chetan
Sharma
Consulting,
2012
Google
Facebook
Amazon
Users
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42. VAS
AND
OTT

43. Smartphones
are
enabling
Offdeck
to
dominate
app
revenue
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44. Some
operators
are
starPng
to
see
the
decline
in
messaging
revenues
Some
operators
in
Europe
are
also
seeing
declines
in
messaging
revenue
Total
SMS
Volumes
sJll
increasing
but
revenue
in
decline
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45. SMS
Growth
–
US
takes
over
Philippines
Philippines
SMS
volumes/sub
declining
precipitously
due
to
the
rise
in
IP
messaging
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46. WHAT
TO
EXPECT
IN
2H
2012

47. What
to
expect
in
2H
2012
• More
Tiering,
faster
pace
of
change
of
plans.
More
opJons,
family
data
plans
• Cost
reducJon
is
as
important
as
revenue
generaJon.
More
players
will
align
their
value-­‐chains
and
cost
structures
• Facebook
IPO
is
probably
going
to
be
the
single
biggest
event
in
the
technology
industry
in
the
next
few
months.
• Radios
will
start
connecJng
the
digital
world
with
the
physical
world
with
significant
disrupJon
opportunity
• Mobile
Payment
Networks
will
remain
intact
for
the
near
future
as
the
ecosystem
largely
focuses
on
building
value
on
top
of
the
exisJng
exchange
plaqorms
• The
intersecJon
of
Social,
LocaJon,
IdenJty,
and
Gaming
is
creaJng
new
opportuniJes
• With
connecJvity
becoming
pervasive,
mobile
will
fundamentally
start
to
alter
the
legacy
infrastructure
–
retail,
health,
educaJon,
energy,
compuJng,
travel,
entertainment
• Significant
tablet
adopJon
in
the
enterprise
directly
impacJng
the
tradiJonal
computer
manufacturers
• Both
HTML5
and
Apps
will
conJnue
to
grow,
the
relevancy
to
any
given
applicaJon
will
depend
on
the
reach
and
economics
requirements.
HTML5
is
not
going
to
replace
Apps.
• Mobile
data
growth
will
double
again
in
2012.
Significant
opportuniJes
in
managing
and
understanding
of
mobile
data
growth
• Regulators
will
need
to
evolve
to
keep
up
with
the
trend
to
keep
their
naJon
globally
compeJJve
• More
IP
scuffles
before
licensing
se=lements
• ConsolidaJon
of
weaker
players,
more
global
M&A
• Significant
progress
in
emerging
areas
like
mHealth,
mPayments
will
come
from
the
developing
world
while
the
western
countries
get
mired
in
regulatory
and
legacy
mess
• Several
players
face
challenging
Jmes
ahead
and
2012
will
be
criJcal
in
their
turn
around
sojourn.
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Copyright
2012,
All
Rights
Reserved.
Copying
w/o
permission
is
strictly
prohibited.

48. We
look
forward
to
hearing
from
you
Chetan
Sharma
Mobile
Future
Forward
chetan@chetansharma.com
info@mobilefutureforward.com
TW:
@chetansharma
TW:
@mfutureforward
h=p://www.chetansharma.com
h=p://www.mobilefutureforward.com
Research.
Technology.
Strategy.
Intellectual
Property.
Thought
Leadership
Summits.
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Copyright
2012,
All
Rights
Reserved.
Copying
w/o
permission
is
strictly
prohibited.

49. Mobile
Web
and
Apps
Program
• Apps
and
Web
– Development
– Engagement
– MoneJzaJon
– Connected
Devices
– Commerce
OpportuniJes
– APIs
– Cloud
– Media
and
Entertainment
– Best
PracJces
– Privacy
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49
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Copyright
2012,
All
Rights
Reserved.
Copying
w/o
permission
is
strictly
prohibited.

50. Book
Drawing
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Copyright
2012,
All
Rights
Reserved.
Copying
w/o
permission
is
strictly
prohibited.