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Economic Statistics and Forecasts from the Kyser Center

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This document summarizes an economic presentation given by Robert A. Kleinhenz, Chief Economist at the Kyser Center for Economic Research. It provides an overview of the U.S., California, and Southern California economies, including statistics on GDP, employment, unemployment, and other indicators. It also includes a forecast projecting continued moderate economic growth in the U.S. and California through 2014.

FormationTechnologieÉconomie & finance
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Economic Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research Real Estate Educators’ Conference October 18, 2013 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC
Outline • • • • U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy Forecast & Conclusion Kyser Center for Economic Research
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U.S. Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Unemployment Rate 12% Seasonally Adjusted, Aug. 2013: 7.3% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-95 Jan-94 Jan-93 Jan-92 Jan-91 Jan-90 0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
Employment Fell Faster and Longer than in Prior Recessions... …and Recovered More Slowly! 108 11/1973 - 3/1975 1/1980-7/1980 106 7/1981-11/1982 7/1990-3/1991 104 3/2001-11/2001 12/2007-6/2009 102 100 98 96 94 92 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth 600 MTM Changes in Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted MTM Job Changes 3 per. Mov. Avg. (MTM Job Changes) 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Recession Job Losses: 8.7 million Since December ’09: +6.8 million Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 -800 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
Gross Domestic Product Annual % Change, Chain-Type (2005) $ Annual Quarterly 12.0% 10.0% Averaging ~2% YTY, need 3.5-4% YTY 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 13-Q2 12-Q4 12-Q2 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 -6.0% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Kyser Center for Economic Research
Consumer Price Index % Change from a Year Ago, 100 = 1982-1984 Aug. 2013: All Items +1.5%; Core +1.8% 15.0% All Items Core 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 -5.0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Total New Vehicle Sales 18 Millions of Vehicles 16 14 12 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Retail Trade & Food Sales YTY % Change – Aug. 2013: +4.6% Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% -16.0% Source: US Bureau of the Census Kyser Center for Economic Research
Receipts Outlays 2005 2008 Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays as % of GDP 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 10.0 Source: Office of Management and Budget Kyser Center for Economic Research
Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Fixed Rate Mort Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Fed Funds Jan-99 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-95 Jan-94 Jan-93 Jan-92 Jan-91 Key Interest Rates 10-Year T-Bond 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Economic Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f GDP - Annual % Chg. 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.4% Nonfarm Jobs Annual % Chg. -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% Unemployment Rate 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.2% Consumer Prices Annual % Chg. 1.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.7% Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Recap  Labor Market  Quality of jobs  Healing Consumer Sector  Housing continues to improve, Durable goods up  Business Sector  Investment spending interest sensitive  Government  Federal budget cuts = drag; but will cut deficit  State/local fiscal situation improving  International Trade  Trading partner economies improving Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Growth Tracks U.S. US GDP CA GSP 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; forecasts by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Unemployment Rate & Nonfarm Jobs 4.0% Unemployment Rate in % YTY % Change, Nonfarm Jobs 14.0% Aug. 2013: 14.7 million jobs, +1.5% YTY; U.S.: +1.7% YTY 2.0% 12.0% 0.0% 10.0% -2.0% 8.0% 8.9% -4.0% 6.0% Nonfarm YTY % Change -6.0% 4.0% Unemployment Rate 2013.07 2013.01 2012.07 2012.01 2011.07 2011.01 2010.07 2010.01 2009.07 2009.01 2008.07 2008.01 2007.07 2.0% 2007.01 -8.0% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Job Trends by Industry – CA Aug. 2013: +223,900, +1.5% YTY Construction Leisure & Hospitality Wholesale Trade Administrative & Support & Waste… Educational Services Management of Companies &… Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Professional, Scientific & Technical… Health Care & Social Assistance Finance & Insurance Retail Trade Nondurable Goods 0.0% Durable Goods -0.1% Information -0.4% -0.5% Government -2% -1% 0% 5.0% 4.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Job Trends by Industry – CA Aug. 2013: +223,900, +1.5% YTY Leisure & Hospitality Construction Administrative & Support & Waste… Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Technical… Wholesale Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Educational Services Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Management of Companies &… Retail Trade Nondurable Goods -0.1 Durable Goods -1.1 Information -1.8 Government -12.4 -30 -10 66.2 29.1 27.8 26.4 22.5 21.2 11.4 10 7.9 6.7 5.6 2.8 (thousands) 10 30 50 70 90 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Professional and Business Services Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +55,900, +2.5% 2,700,000 2,200,000 1,700,000 1,200,000 700,000 Jul-13 Jan13 Jul-12 Jan12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan10 Jul-09 Jan09 Jul-08 Jan08 200,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Private Education & Health Services Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: Health Svcs. +26,400, +1.7%; Education: +10,000, +2.9% 2,500,000 Education Services Health Services 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Leisure and Hospitality Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +66,200; +4.1% 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 200,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Manufacturing Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: Durable -1,100; -0.1%; Nondurable -100; -0.02% 1,600,000 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 May-13 Jan-13 Sep-12 May-12 Jan-12 Sep-11 May-11 Jan-11 Sep-10 May-10 Jan-10 Sep-09 May-09 Jan-09 Sep-08 May-08 Jan-08 Sep-07 May-07 Jan-07 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Value of Manufacturing Output – California 250 $ Billions Durable Goods 225 Nondurable Goods 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: BEA, Global Insight Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Transportation and Warehousing Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +11,400, +2.3% 540,000 490,000 440,000 390,000 340,000 290,000 240,000 190,000 140,000 90,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 40,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual % Change in Nonfarm Jobs Aug. 2013 – California: +223,900 jobs, +1.5% YTY San Jose Orange County San Francisco Stockton MSA Ventura Fresno MSA Bakersfield LA Modesto San Diego Oakland Riverside-San… Sacramento 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Unemployment Rates by MSA Bay Area MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Napa 7.4 5.8 -1.6 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont 7.1 5.4 -1.7 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara 8.7 6.8 -1.9 Santa Rosa-Petaluma 8.6 6.6 -2.0 Vallejo-Fairfield 10.1 8.2 -1.9 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
Unemployment Rates by MSA Central Valley MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Bakersfield-Delano 12.3 10.9 -1.4 Chico 12.1 10.0 -2.1 Fresno 14.2 11.9 -2.3 Merced 15.8 13.3 -2.5 Modesto 14.2 11.9 -2.3 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville 10.4 8.5 -1.9 Stockton 14.6 12.2 -2.4 Visalia-Porterville 15.3 13.1 -2.2 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
Unemployment Rates by MSA Central Coast MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Salinas 9.3 7.8 -1.5 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles 8.2 6.6 -1.6 Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta 7.8 6.3 -1.5 Santa Cruz-Watsonville 9.8 7.9 -1.9 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
Southern California Economies Kyser Center for Economic Research
Employment Rates by MSA Southern California MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 10.9 10.1 -0.8 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura 9.5 7.8 -1.7 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 12.6 10.4 -2.2 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos 9.2 7.4 -1.8 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
Local Unemployment Rates 20% Aug. 2013 LA - 10.2% OC - 6.2% IE - 10.4% 20% May-13 0% Jan-13 0% Sep-12 2% May-12 2% Jan-12 4% Sep-11 4% May-11 6% Jan-11 6% Sep-10 8% May-10 8% Jan-10 10% Sep-09 10% May-09 12% Jan-09 12% Sep-08 14% May-08 14% Jan-08 16% Sep-07 16% May-07 18% Jan-07 18% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Orange Inland Empire 2007 2009 1,200 Los Angeles Thousands 2004 Southern California Professional & Business Services Employment Ventura 1,000 800 600 400 200 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2008 2006 2005 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Southern California Leisure & Hospitality Employment 2013 YTD Ventura 2012 2011 San Diego 2010 2009 2008 Inland Empire 2007 2006 Orange 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Los Angeles Thousands Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
SoCal Manufacturing Employment Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Orange Inland Empire 2009 300 Los Angeles Thousands 2007 Southern California Transportation and Warehousing Employment Ventura 250 200 150 100 50 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2008 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
International Trade-Related Employment in LA 5 County Area Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County 157,200 7,500 44,500 35,000 Source: LAEDC 2010 Cluster Analysis Project Kyser Center for Economic Research
Annual TEU Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports millions of TEUs August 2013: +2.4% YTD 18 16 15.8 14 14.3 14.2 11.8 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.1 2010 2011 2012 2013F 13.1 12 10 15.7 11.8 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
L.A. County Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: -6,800 jobs, -5.6% 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
Where is the Motion Picture & Sound Industry Located? Share of employment in U.S. LA 34.6% 59.3% Rest of CA Rest of US 6.1% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
On-Location Film Production Days by Type 60 50 Production Days,1000s Feature Films Television Commercials Other 2012: + 1.7% YTY 2013: +11.9% YTD (Q3) 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 YTD YTD Source: Film LA Kyser Center for Economic Research
Home Sales & Median Prices – CA Existing Detached Homes – September 2013 Price: $428,810 +24.4% YTY - - - Sales: 412,880 -2.6% YTY Sales (000s) 700 Price ($000s) 600 500 400 300 200 100 Source: California Association of Realtors 2013.01 2012.01 2011.01 2010.01 2009.01 2008.01 2007.01 2006.01 2005.01 2004.01 2003.01 0
Home Sales & Median Prices Los Angeles County New and existing, single-family homes and condos 12,000 $600 Sep. 2013: $425,000, +25.0% YTY, Sales: 5.0% YTY 10,000 $500 8,000 $400 6,000 $300 4,000 $200 2,000 $100 Home Sales Median Home Price 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
Home Sales & Median Prices Orange County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 5,000 4,500 $700 Sep. 2013: $550,000, +22.2% YTY, Sales: +8.9% YTY $600 4,000 $500 3,500 3,000 $400 2,500 $300 2,000 1,500 $200 1,000 Home Sales 500 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $100 Median Home Price $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
Home Sales & Median Prices Riverside County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 7,000 $450 Sep. 2013: $269,000, +26.6% YTY, Sales: 7.6% YTY 6,000 $400 $350 5,000 $300 4,000 $250 3,000 $200 $150 2,000 $100 1,000 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick Home Sales Median Home Price $50 $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
Home Sales & Median Prices San Bernardino County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 5,000 4,500 $400 Sep. 2013: $225,000, +32.4% YTY, Sales: 15.4% YTY 4,000 $350 $300 3,500 3,000 $250 2,500 $200 2,000 $150 1,500 $100 1,000 Home Sales Median Home Price 500 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $50 $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
Home Sales & Median Prices Ventura County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 1,400 $700 Sep. 2013: $445,000, +18.8% YTY, Sales: +0.2% YTY 1,200 $600 1,000 $500 800 $400 600 $300 400 $200 200 0 Jan-06 Home Sales Median Home Price $100 $0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick Kyser Center for Economic Research
Unsold Inventory (Months) Existing Single Family Homes County/Region Los Angeles Aug-12 3.0 Jul-13 2.9 Aug-13 2.9 Orange County 3.6 3.0 3.3 Riverside County 3.2 3.1 3.2 San Bernardino 3.4 3.1 3.0 San Diego 3.7 3.3 3.4 Ventura 4.0 3.5 3.2 Source: CA Association of Realtors Kyser Center for Economic Research
16,000 Southern California Unsold New Housing Total Units Ventura 14,000 San Bernardino 12,000 Riverside 10,000 Orange Los Angeles 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
L.A. Five-County Region Apartment Vacancy Rates & Average Rental Rates Vacancy Rates Rental Rates 9.0% $1,500 8.0% $1,450 7.0% 6.0% $1,400 5.0% $1,350 4.0% 3.0% $1,300 2.0% $1,250 1.0% $1,200 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 0.0% Note: For Apartments with > 100 units Source: Real Facts; CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
Office Vacancy Rates in Southern California 26.0 % Vacant, Quarterly Averages 22.0 18.0 14.0 10.0 6.0 2.0 07Q1 08Q1 Los Angeles 09Q1 Orange 10Q1 Inland Empire 11Q1 Ventura 12Q1 13Q1 San Diego Source: Grubb and Ellis Research Services; CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
Industrial Vacancy Rates – Southern California % Vacant, Quarterly Averages 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 2Q13 1Q13 4Q12 3q12 2q12 1q12 4q11 3q11 2q11 1q11 4q10 3q10 2q10 1q10 4q09 3q09 2q09 1q09 4q08 3q08 2q08 1q08 4q07 3q07 0.0 San Diego Source: Grubb and Ellis Research Services Kyser Center for Economic Research
Residential Building Permits Issued in California 250 Permits issued, Thousands Multi-Family Single-Family 200 61.5 53.7 56.9 150 43.9 56.3 100 50 54.5 44.6 123.9 155.3 138.8 151.4 41.0 108.0 31.9 33.5 19.5 33.1 11.0 25.5 25.1 21.8 26.1 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 68.4 0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 25.6 66.6 41.0 '13f '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
Residential Building Permits Issued in Orange County 14.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 12.0 Single-Family 10.0 5.6 8.0 3.7 2.7 6.5 4.9 6.0 5.9 3.1 4.6 4.9 4.0 5.9 6.4 5.6 2.0 2.9 4.4 4.1 1.9 3.7 2.2 0.0 '01 '02 '03 3.8 '04 '05 '06 '07 0.8 1.7 3.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.9 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f 2.3 '08 4.3 Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
Residential Building Permits Issued in Inland Empire 60 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family Single-Family 50 9.2 40 5.5 7.0 5.8 3.5 30 4.2 20 43.5 45.3 2.5 36.0 33.3 29.8 10 19.5 22.8 2.3 1.2 3.7 16.0 3.3 5.8 0 '00 4.5 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 2.5 4.8 5.1 3.8 4.7 6.8 '07 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f '08 1.5 1.7 11.1 Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
Residential Building Permits Issued in Ventura County 5.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 4.5 Single-Family 4.0 3.5 1.9 0.3 3.0 1.3 2.5 0.3 0.9 2.0 1.5 0.9 3.2 2.2 1.0 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.0 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 '12 '13f 0.3 '08 '09 '10 '11 0.3 0.4 '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
Residential Building Permits Issued in San Diego County 20.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 18.0 Single-Family 16.0 14.0 12.0 8.9 6.3 6.0 7.8 7.4 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 5.2 6.0 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.6 4.4 3.9 7.9 4.8 2.0 3.5 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 4.2 6.0 1.1 2.3 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 0.0 '01 2.9 2.8 3.9 '13f '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
Southern California Construction Employment 600 Los Angeles Thousands Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura 500 400 300 200 100 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Forecast 2013-14 Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Economic Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Nonfarm Jobs Annual % Chg. -1.1% 1.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% Unemployment Rate 12.4% 11.8% 10.5% 9.1% 8.7% Personal Income Annual % Chg. 3.1% 5.2% 4.0% 2.3% 5.0% Taxable Retail Sales % Chg. 5.0% 8.8% 6.6% 4.5% 3.1% Housing Permits thousands of units 44.8 47.3 59.6 82.0 121.0 Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Employment Annual average in thousands, 2012 benchmark 15,400 Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate 14.0% 15,200 12.0% 15,000 14,800 10.0% 14,600 8.0% 14,400 14,200 6.0% 14,000 4.0% 13,800 13,600 2.0% 13,400 13,200 0.0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Personal Income & Retail Sales Total Personal Income 2,000 Taxable Retail Sales Growth 15.0% Billions of $ 1,800 10.0% 1,600 1,400 5.0% 1,200 1,000 0.0% 800 -5.0% 600 400 -10.0% 200 0 -15.0% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f Source: CA Board of Equalization, Department of Commerce; estimate & forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
California Recap  Faster growth than US  But more ground to make up  Silicon Valley/Bay Area Leading  Driving up housing prices  Southern California Mixed  OC in the lead  Housing  Supply-constrained home prices up sharply  Slower gains in 2014 as supply increases  Construction recovering from steep decline Kyser Center for Economic Research
THANK YOU For Further Insight into the Local Economy find our Mid-Year Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook online at www.LAEDC.org/reports • Keep up with economic news and major developments by subscribing to e-EDGE, our free weekly economic newsletter. Check out the current issue at www.LAEDC.org/eEdge

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Economic Statistics and Forecasts from the Kyser Center

  • 1. Economic Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research Real Estate Educators’ Conference October 18, 2013 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC
  • 2. Outline • • • • U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy Forecast & Conclusion Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 3. Due to the lapse in government funding, census.gov sites, services, and all online survey collection requests will be unavailable until further notice….
  • 4.
  • 5. Special Notice: This website is currently not being updated due to the suspension of Federal government services….
  • 6. U.S. Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 7. U.S. Unemployment Rate 12% Seasonally Adjusted, Aug. 2013: 7.3% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Jan-99 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-95 Jan-94 Jan-93 Jan-92 Jan-91 Jan-90 0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 8. Employment Fell Faster and Longer than in Prior Recessions... …and Recovered More Slowly! 108 11/1973 - 3/1975 1/1980-7/1980 106 7/1981-11/1982 7/1990-3/1991 104 3/2001-11/2001 12/2007-6/2009 102 100 98 96 94 92 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
  • 9. U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth 600 MTM Changes in Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted MTM Job Changes 3 per. Mov. Avg. (MTM Job Changes) 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 Recession Job Losses: 8.7 million Since December ’09: +6.8 million Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 -800 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 10. Gross Domestic Product Annual % Change, Chain-Type (2005) $ Annual Quarterly 12.0% 10.0% Averaging ~2% YTY, need 3.5-4% YTY 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 13-Q2 12-Q4 12-Q2 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 -6.0% Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 11. Consumer Price Index % Change from a Year Ago, 100 = 1982-1984 Aug. 2013: All Items +1.5%; Core +1.8% 15.0% All Items Core 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 -5.0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 12. U.S. Total New Vehicle Sales 18 Millions of Vehicles 16 14 12 10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 13. U.S. Retail Trade & Food Sales YTY % Change – Aug. 2013: +4.6% Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% -16.0% Source: US Bureau of the Census Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 14. Receipts Outlays 2005 2008 Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays as % of GDP 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 10.0 Source: Office of Management and Budget Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 15. Jan-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jan-08 Jan-07 Fixed Rate Mort Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Jan-02 Jan-01 Jan-00 Fed Funds Jan-99 Jan-98 Jan-97 Jan-96 Jan-95 Jan-94 Jan-93 Jan-92 Jan-91 Key Interest Rates 10-Year T-Bond 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 16. U.S. Economic Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f GDP - Annual % Chg. 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.4% Nonfarm Jobs Annual % Chg. -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% Unemployment Rate 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.6% 7.2% Consumer Prices Annual % Chg. 1.6% 3.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.7% Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 17. U.S. Recap  Labor Market  Quality of jobs  Healing Consumer Sector  Housing continues to improve, Durable goods up  Business Sector  Investment spending interest sensitive  Government  Federal budget cuts = drag; but will cut deficit  State/local fiscal situation improving  International Trade  Trading partner economies improving Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 18. California Economy Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 19. California Growth Tracks U.S. US GDP CA GSP 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; forecasts by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 20. California Unemployment Rate & Nonfarm Jobs 4.0% Unemployment Rate in % YTY % Change, Nonfarm Jobs 14.0% Aug. 2013: 14.7 million jobs, +1.5% YTY; U.S.: +1.7% YTY 2.0% 12.0% 0.0% 10.0% -2.0% 8.0% 8.9% -4.0% 6.0% Nonfarm YTY % Change -6.0% 4.0% Unemployment Rate 2013.07 2013.01 2012.07 2012.01 2011.07 2011.01 2010.07 2010.01 2009.07 2009.01 2008.07 2008.01 2007.07 2.0% 2007.01 -8.0% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 21. Job Trends by Industry – CA Aug. 2013: +223,900, +1.5% YTY Construction Leisure & Hospitality Wholesale Trade Administrative & Support & Waste… Educational Services Management of Companies &… Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Professional, Scientific & Technical… Health Care & Social Assistance Finance & Insurance Retail Trade Nondurable Goods 0.0% Durable Goods -0.1% Information -0.4% -0.5% Government -2% -1% 0% 5.0% 4.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 22. Job Trends by Industry – CA Aug. 2013: +223,900, +1.5% YTY Leisure & Hospitality Construction Administrative & Support & Waste… Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Technical… Wholesale Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Educational Services Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Management of Companies &… Retail Trade Nondurable Goods -0.1 Durable Goods -1.1 Information -1.8 Government -12.4 -30 -10 66.2 29.1 27.8 26.4 22.5 21.2 11.4 10 7.9 6.7 5.6 2.8 (thousands) 10 30 50 70 90 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 23. California Professional and Business Services Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +55,900, +2.5% 2,700,000 2,200,000 1,700,000 1,200,000 700,000 Jul-13 Jan13 Jul-12 Jan12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan10 Jul-09 Jan09 Jul-08 Jan08 200,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 24. California Private Education & Health Services Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: Health Svcs. +26,400, +1.7%; Education: +10,000, +2.9% 2,500,000 Education Services Health Services 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 25. California Leisure and Hospitality Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +66,200; +4.1% 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 200,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 26. California Manufacturing Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: Durable -1,100; -0.1%; Nondurable -100; -0.02% 1,600,000 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 May-13 Jan-13 Sep-12 May-12 Jan-12 Sep-11 May-11 Jan-11 Sep-10 May-10 Jan-10 Sep-09 May-09 Jan-09 Sep-08 May-08 Jan-08 Sep-07 May-07 Jan-07 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 27. Value of Manufacturing Output – California 250 $ Billions Durable Goods 225 Nondurable Goods 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: BEA, Global Insight Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 28. California Transportation and Warehousing Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: +11,400, +2.3% 540,000 490,000 440,000 390,000 340,000 290,000 240,000 190,000 140,000 90,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 40,000 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 29. Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual % Change in Nonfarm Jobs Aug. 2013 – California: +223,900 jobs, +1.5% YTY San Jose Orange County San Francisco Stockton MSA Ventura Fresno MSA Bakersfield LA Modesto San Diego Oakland Riverside-San… Sacramento 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 30. Unemployment Rates by MSA Bay Area MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Napa 7.4 5.8 -1.6 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont 7.1 5.4 -1.7 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara 8.7 6.8 -1.9 Santa Rosa-Petaluma 8.6 6.6 -2.0 Vallejo-Fairfield 10.1 8.2 -1.9 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 31. Unemployment Rates by MSA Central Valley MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Bakersfield-Delano 12.3 10.9 -1.4 Chico 12.1 10.0 -2.1 Fresno 14.2 11.9 -2.3 Merced 15.8 13.3 -2.5 Modesto 14.2 11.9 -2.3 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville 10.4 8.5 -1.9 Stockton 14.6 12.2 -2.4 Visalia-Porterville 15.3 13.1 -2.2 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 32. Unemployment Rates by MSA Central Coast MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Salinas 9.3 7.8 -1.5 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles 8.2 6.6 -1.6 Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta 7.8 6.3 -1.5 Santa Cruz-Watsonville 9.8 7.9 -1.9 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 34. Employment Rates by MSA Southern California MSA Aug. '12 Aug. '13 Chg. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 10.9 10.1 -0.8 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura 9.5 7.8 -1.7 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 12.6 10.4 -2.2 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos 9.2 7.4 -1.8 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 35. Local Unemployment Rates 20% Aug. 2013 LA - 10.2% OC - 6.2% IE - 10.4% 20% May-13 0% Jan-13 0% Sep-12 2% May-12 2% Jan-12 4% Sep-11 4% May-11 6% Jan-11 6% Sep-10 8% May-10 8% Jan-10 10% Sep-09 10% May-09 12% Jan-09 12% Sep-08 14% May-08 14% Jan-08 16% Sep-07 16% May-07 18% Jan-07 18% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 36. Orange Inland Empire 2007 2009 1,200 Los Angeles Thousands 2004 Southern California Professional & Business Services Employment Ventura 1,000 800 600 400 200 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2008 2006 2005 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 37. Southern California Leisure & Hospitality Employment 2013 YTD Ventura 2012 2011 San Diego 2010 2009 2008 Inland Empire 2007 2006 Orange 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Los Angeles Thousands Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 38. SoCal Manufacturing Employment Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 39. Orange Inland Empire 2009 300 Los Angeles Thousands 2007 Southern California Transportation and Warehousing Employment Ventura 250 200 150 100 50 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2008 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 40. International Trade-Related Employment in LA 5 County Area Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County 157,200 7,500 44,500 35,000 Source: LAEDC 2010 Cluster Analysis Project Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 41. Annual TEU Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports millions of TEUs August 2013: +2.4% YTD 18 16 15.8 14 14.3 14.2 11.8 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.1 2010 2011 2012 2013F 13.1 12 10 15.7 11.8 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 42. L.A. County Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment Aug. 2013 YTY: -6,800 jobs, -5.6% 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 Jan-08 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 43. Where is the Motion Picture & Sound Industry Located? Share of employment in U.S. LA 34.6% 59.3% Rest of CA Rest of US 6.1% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 44. On-Location Film Production Days by Type 60 50 Production Days,1000s Feature Films Television Commercials Other 2012: + 1.7% YTY 2013: +11.9% YTD (Q3) 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 YTD YTD Source: Film LA Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 45. Home Sales & Median Prices – CA Existing Detached Homes – September 2013 Price: $428,810 +24.4% YTY - - - Sales: 412,880 -2.6% YTY Sales (000s) 700 Price ($000s) 600 500 400 300 200 100 Source: California Association of Realtors 2013.01 2012.01 2011.01 2010.01 2009.01 2008.01 2007.01 2006.01 2005.01 2004.01 2003.01 0
  • 46. Home Sales & Median Prices Los Angeles County New and existing, single-family homes and condos 12,000 $600 Sep. 2013: $425,000, +25.0% YTY, Sales: 5.0% YTY 10,000 $500 8,000 $400 6,000 $300 4,000 $200 2,000 $100 Home Sales Median Home Price 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 47. Home Sales & Median Prices Orange County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 5,000 4,500 $700 Sep. 2013: $550,000, +22.2% YTY, Sales: +8.9% YTY $600 4,000 $500 3,500 3,000 $400 2,500 $300 2,000 1,500 $200 1,000 Home Sales 500 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $100 Median Home Price $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 48. Home Sales & Median Prices Riverside County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 7,000 $450 Sep. 2013: $269,000, +26.6% YTY, Sales: 7.6% YTY 6,000 $400 $350 5,000 $300 4,000 $250 3,000 $200 $150 2,000 $100 1,000 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick Home Sales Median Home Price $50 $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 49. Home Sales & Median Prices San Bernardino County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 5,000 4,500 $400 Sep. 2013: $225,000, +32.4% YTY, Sales: 15.4% YTY 4,000 $350 $300 3,500 3,000 $250 2,500 $200 2,000 $150 1,500 $100 1,000 Home Sales Median Home Price 500 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick $50 $0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 50. Home Sales & Median Prices Ventura County New and existing, single-family homes and condos (Sales) (Price, Thousands) 1,400 $700 Sep. 2013: $445,000, +18.8% YTY, Sales: +0.2% YTY 1,200 $600 1,000 $500 800 $400 600 $300 400 $200 200 0 Jan-06 Home Sales Median Home Price $100 $0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 51. Unsold Inventory (Months) Existing Single Family Homes County/Region Los Angeles Aug-12 3.0 Jul-13 2.9 Aug-13 2.9 Orange County 3.6 3.0 3.3 Riverside County 3.2 3.1 3.2 San Bernardino 3.4 3.1 3.0 San Diego 3.7 3.3 3.4 Ventura 4.0 3.5 3.2 Source: CA Association of Realtors Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 52. 16,000 Southern California Unsold New Housing Total Units Ventura 14,000 San Bernardino 12,000 Riverside 10,000 Orange Los Angeles 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 53. L.A. Five-County Region Apartment Vacancy Rates & Average Rental Rates Vacancy Rates Rental Rates 9.0% $1,500 8.0% $1,450 7.0% 6.0% $1,400 5.0% $1,350 4.0% 3.0% $1,300 2.0% $1,250 1.0% $1,200 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 0.0% Note: For Apartments with > 100 units Source: Real Facts; CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 54. Office Vacancy Rates in Southern California 26.0 % Vacant, Quarterly Averages 22.0 18.0 14.0 10.0 6.0 2.0 07Q1 08Q1 Los Angeles 09Q1 Orange 10Q1 Inland Empire 11Q1 Ventura 12Q1 13Q1 San Diego Source: Grubb and Ellis Research Services; CA Real Estate Research Council Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 55. Industrial Vacancy Rates – Southern California % Vacant, Quarterly Averages 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 2Q13 1Q13 4Q12 3q12 2q12 1q12 4q11 3q11 2q11 1q11 4q10 3q10 2q10 1q10 4q09 3q09 2q09 1q09 4q08 3q08 2q08 1q08 4q07 3q07 0.0 San Diego Source: Grubb and Ellis Research Services Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 56. Residential Building Permits Issued in California 250 Permits issued, Thousands Multi-Family Single-Family 200 61.5 53.7 56.9 150 43.9 56.3 100 50 54.5 44.6 123.9 155.3 138.8 151.4 41.0 108.0 31.9 33.5 19.5 33.1 11.0 25.5 25.1 21.8 26.1 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 68.4 0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 25.6 66.6 41.0 '13f '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 57. Residential Building Permits Issued in Orange County 14.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 12.0 Single-Family 10.0 5.6 8.0 3.7 2.7 6.5 4.9 6.0 5.9 3.1 4.6 4.9 4.0 5.9 6.4 5.6 2.0 2.9 4.4 4.1 1.9 3.7 2.2 0.0 '01 '02 '03 3.8 '04 '05 '06 '07 0.8 1.7 3.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.9 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f 2.3 '08 4.3 Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 58. Residential Building Permits Issued in Inland Empire 60 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family Single-Family 50 9.2 40 5.5 7.0 5.8 3.5 30 4.2 20 43.5 45.3 2.5 36.0 33.3 29.8 10 19.5 22.8 2.3 1.2 3.7 16.0 3.3 5.8 0 '00 4.5 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 2.5 4.8 5.1 3.8 4.7 6.8 '07 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f '08 1.5 1.7 11.1 Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 59. Residential Building Permits Issued in Ventura County 5.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 4.5 Single-Family 4.0 3.5 1.9 0.3 3.0 1.3 2.5 0.3 0.9 2.0 1.5 0.9 3.2 2.2 1.0 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.0 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 '12 '13f 0.3 '08 '09 '10 '11 0.3 0.4 '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 60. Residential Building Permits Issued in San Diego County 20.0 Permits Issued, Thousands Multi-Family 18.0 Single-Family 16.0 14.0 12.0 8.9 6.3 6.0 7.8 7.4 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 5.2 6.0 9.3 9.7 9.5 9.6 4.4 3.9 7.9 4.8 2.0 3.5 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 4.2 6.0 1.1 2.3 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.2 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 0.0 '01 2.9 2.8 3.9 '13f '14f Source: CIRB; CA Homebuilding Foundation; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 61. Southern California Construction Employment 600 Los Angeles Thousands Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura 500 400 300 200 100 2013 YTD 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 63. California Economic Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013f 2014f Nonfarm Jobs Annual % Chg. -1.1% 1.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% Unemployment Rate 12.4% 11.8% 10.5% 9.1% 8.7% Personal Income Annual % Chg. 3.1% 5.2% 4.0% 2.3% 5.0% Taxable Retail Sales % Chg. 5.0% 8.8% 6.6% 4.5% 3.1% Housing Permits thousands of units 44.8 47.3 59.6 82.0 121.0 Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 64. California Employment Annual average in thousands, 2012 benchmark 15,400 Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate 14.0% 15,200 12.0% 15,000 14,800 10.0% 14,600 8.0% 14,400 14,200 6.0% 14,000 4.0% 13,800 13,600 2.0% 13,400 13,200 0.0% '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 65. California Personal Income & Retail Sales Total Personal Income 2,000 Taxable Retail Sales Growth 15.0% Billions of $ 1,800 10.0% 1,600 1,400 5.0% 1,200 1,000 0.0% 800 -5.0% 600 400 -10.0% 200 0 -15.0% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f Source: CA Board of Equalization, Department of Commerce; estimate & forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 66. California Recap  Faster growth than US  But more ground to make up  Silicon Valley/Bay Area Leading  Driving up housing prices  Southern California Mixed  OC in the lead  Housing  Supply-constrained home prices up sharply  Slower gains in 2014 as supply increases  Construction recovering from steep decline Kyser Center for Economic Research
  • 67. THANK YOU For Further Insight into the Local Economy find our Mid-Year Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook online at www.LAEDC.org/reports • Keep up with economic news and major developments by subscribing to e-EDGE, our free weekly economic newsletter. Check out the current issue at www.LAEDC.org/eEdge

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmGE 9/12/13
  2. GE 9/12/13
  3. RAK 7/31/13GE 10/7/13
  4. URL: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?blsGE 09/17/13
  5. RAK 9/17/13
  6. URL: http://www.census.gov/retail/  Create your own time seriesGE 9/13/13
  7. RAK_9/18/13
  8. RAK 10/15/13
  9. RAK4/15/13RAK_9/18/13: CA GSP updated with Sept 2013 CA LTT, US historical updated w July 2013 revisions
  10. KRM/KL 7/9/13GE 9/26/13
  11. Note: Education Services refers to private education (e.g. USC, DeVry). Public education (K-12, community colleges, CSULB, CSU) are included in Government.RAK_4/11/13CaliforniaLabor Market Information Division, All Data ARE Adjusted for SeasonalityGE 08/19/13GE 9/26/13
  12. Note: Education Services refers to private education (e.g. USC, DeVry). Public education (K-12, community colleges, CSULB, CSU) are included in Government.RAK_4/11/13CaliforniaLabor Market Information Division, All Data ARE Adjusted for SeasonalityGE 08/19/13
  13. GE 8/19/13GE 9/26/13
  14. GE 8/19/13GE 9/26/13
  15. GE 9/26/13
  16. GE 8/23/139/26/13
  17. RAK 10/15/13 Real GSP, Manufacturing (Millions 2005$)Real GSPDurables Manufacturing (Millions 2005$)Real GSPNon-Durables Manufacturing (Millions 2005$) Real GSP rescaled to $ Billions for figurePeaksDurable – new peak in 2012Nondurable – peak in 2008
  18. GE 8/19/13GE 9/26/13
  19. GE 9/26/13
  20. GE 8/23/13GE 10/15/13
  21. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/metro_08282013.pdfGE 8/23/13GE 10/15/13
  22. GE 8/23/13GE 10/15/13
  23. GE 8/23/13GE 10/15/13
  24. GE 10/7/13
  25. GE 10/16/13
  26. RAK 2/12/13GE 10/16/13
  27. RAK 2/12/13GE 10/16/13
  28. RAK 2/15/13GE 10/16/13
  29. YTD Text Box Updated 9/17/13 by RAKRAK updated bar chart on 8/26/13 to show latest fcst: 14.340 million TEUs+1.5%
  30. GE 08/19/13GE 9/26/13
  31. Motion Picture & Sound Recording Industries (50-512000)
  32. RAK_10/17/13
  33. RAK_10/17/13
  34. RAK_10/17/13
  35. RAK_10/17/13
  36. RAK_10/17/13
  37. RAK_10/17/13
  38. RAK_10/17/13
  39. GE 10/9/13http://www.car.org/newsstand/newsreleases/ go to latest “Home Sales and Price Report” then to the Unsold Inventory Table
  40. KRM 6/25/13
  41. KRM 6/25/13GE 10/8/13
  42. GE 10/8/13, RAK Updated table w SD and So Cal 10/17
  43. Kl 08/02/13
  44. KRM 6/28/13
  45. KRM 6/28/13GE 10/8/13 (2013 annualized)
  46. KRM 6/28/13
  47. KRM 6/28/13
  48. KRM 6/28/13
  49. RAK 2/12/13
  50. GE 7/10/13
  51. KRM/KL 7/9/13
  52. KRM/KL 7/9/13