This document describes a methodology for using scenario planning to analyze how organizations make sense of change processes. It discusses conducting interviews and trend analysis to develop scenario topics. The scenario planning process involves workshops where participants analyze themes, discourse, and implications of scenarios. It emphasizes storytelling, participatory engagement, and managing workshops like focus groups to incorporate diverse perspectives into plausible future scenarios.

1. Scenario Planning: A
Methodology for Analyzing
Sensemaking and Change
Processes
Riley, P., Li, Z., Evans, S.K.,
Weiss, E., & Noyes, A.

2. M
Energy
Source:
The
Shell
Global
Scenarios
to
2025

3. M
Politics
Diagram
Source:
“The
Mont
Fleur
Scenarios”,
Deeper
News/Global
Business
Network

4. Source:
Evoke
website,
World
Bank
InsItute

5. Theory and Research
• Narratives and discourse
• Sensemaking
• Collaboration
• New technology
• New business models
• New publics and new relationships
• Social networks

6. M

7. Sources:
USC
Civic
Paths,
Cool
California,
hNp://www.flickr.com/photos/superkimbo/3121817819/

8. Our Process: Pre-Workshop
• Determine workshop type
• Interviews with select participants
• Brainstorm key trends that affect your
organization
• Design and disseminate the scenario topics
with instructions and due dates
• Have participants post their scenarios

9. Our Process: Workshop
• Analysis prior to workshop
– Themes
– Discourse analysis
– Cognitive maps, mental models
– Foresight assessment
– Strategic implications
– Creativity, innovation
– Semantic network analysis
– Survey/network data analysis
• Affirmation process in groups
– Settle on a set of plausible scenarios (aggregate up)
– Storyboard session (debrief)
– Continue to update website

12. Summary
of
Scenario
Themes
Including
Func6onal
Ac6vi6es
(mul6ple
codes)

13. Advice
Network
of
Entertainment
Division.
Node
color
is
Newman-­‐Girvan
clustering.
Node
shape
is
department.

15. Results
• Reporting and storytelling skills are critical
• Short-term approach  blind spots
• Building civic engagement through participatory
story-telling requires engaging with long-term news
issues
• Set date far enough in the future
• Online scenarios open to all participants
• Balance conservative and far-reaching thinkers
• Manage the workshops like focus groups
• Be observant – people will change their
perspectives
• Positivity inside their own organizations; pessimism
in larger institutions or networks

16. Thanks!
http://uscscenariolab.com/

17. Additional slides…

19. Example Scenario Prompt
• World Bank Communication and Governance
Reform Scenario Exercise excerpt:
“SCENARIO PROMPT 3: VISIONARY
It is the year 2021, and your country has become known
around the world as the most remarkably successful model
of Information Society development (through internet,
mobile and social media technologies) over the last decade.
Your country has been much more effective and innovative
in developing political and economic communication and
information rights, as interpreted in your national context,
than the your organization thought possible in 2011. In
fact, your country and your organization have been so
successful that you are now seen as one of the primary
visionary models for other countries around the world to
follow as they continue to develop as Information
Societies.”

20. Example Participant
Scenario
• World Bank Communication and Governance
Reform Scenario Exercise excerpt:
"Moreover, the public discussions on corruption started
having an accurate approach which increased significantly
the awareness of the public opinion of the impact the
corruption has over the whole society. The manipulative
messages carried out by the media owned by the politically
related businessmen have lost their power to influence the
audience. Hence, a broader debate stirred by the civil
society and supported by the social media had increased
knowledge and encouraged the common citizens to disclose
corruption cases.” – Participant (Romanian official)