Bear River Area Economic Update, September 2012. For more information, please visit http://jobs.utah.gov

1. Bear River Area
Economic Update
By: Ivy Austria
Northern Regional Economist
Utah Department of Workforce Services
September 5th, 2012

2. Agenda
• Executive Summary
• Outlook for the Bear River Area
• National and Statewide
Employment
• Employment & Unemployment, and
Other Economic Indicators for: Box
Elder, Cache and Rich

3. Executive Summary
• As of July 2012, The U.S has an unemployment rate
of 8.3% and the State of Utah has a unemployment
rate of 6.0%. Box Elder county is 7.1%, Cache county
is 4.3%, and Rich County is 3.9%.
• Economic recovery within Bear River ESA has been
mixed, the overall outlook is slowly getting better.
• The latest quarterly employment data (first quarter
2012) shows that year-over change in employment
for the Bear River area is on the verge of
experiencing some growth, after eight consecutive
months of employment contraction.

4. Executive Summary
• Cache county employment has been a relatively
positive picture during the first quarter of 2012, Box
Elder is still struggling to recover from the massive
job losses in manufacturing that occurred between
2009 and 2011.
• Year-over-year employment changes in Rich County
show an improving trend that is likely to go positive at
some point between now and the end of the year.
Building activity is still slow in the region as are
taxable sales.

5. National and Statewide
Employment
Total Employment and Unemployment
Rates

6. U.S. and Utah Unemployment Rates:
2001 to 2012
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Utah US
0.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

7. Utah Statewide Employment (Seasonally
Adjusted): 2000 to 2012
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
1000
950
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; May 2012

8. Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric
Change July 2011-2012)
Professional and Business 7300
Manufacturing 5000
Education and Health 4300
Financial Activities 2300
Trade, Transportation, Utilities 1900
Information 1800
Government 1200
Natural Resources 800
Leisure and Hospitality 500
Other Services 300
Construction -900
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

9. Utah Monthly Unemployment Rates*: 1976
to 2012
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
*Seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

10. Disparity between Utah and the U.S.
Unemployment Rate
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1980 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980
8 5+ 8 5+
80-84 80-84
75- 79 75- 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
6 5- 6 9 6 5- 6 9
60-64 60-64
55- 59 55- 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
4 5- 4 9 4 5- 4 9
40-44 40-44
3 5- 3 9 3 5- 3 9
30-34 30-34
2 5- 2 9 2 5- 2 9
20-24 20-24
15- 19 15- 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5- 9 5- 9
0-4 0-4
10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
Population Population
Dominating the Labor Force
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

11. Disparity between Utah and the U.S.
Unemployment Rate (Continued)
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005
8 5+ 8 5+
80-84 80-84
75- 79 75- 79
70 - 74 70 - 74
6 5- 6 9 6 5- 6 9
60-64 60-64
55- 59 55- 59
50 - 54 50 - 54
4 5- 4 9 4 5- 4 9
40-44 40-44
3 5- 3 9 3 5- 3 9
30-34 30-34
2 5- 2 9 2 5- 2 9
20-24 20-24
15- 19 15- 19
10 - 14 10 - 14
5- 9 5- 9
0-4
0-4
150 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
Population Population
Dominating the Labor Force
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

12. Employment &
Unemployment

13. Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm
Jobs By County:2011 to 2012
Duchesne 14.8%
Uintah 7.3%
Grand 7.3%
Washington 5.4%
Sanpete 4.8%
Wasatch 4.8%
Utah County 4.5%
Davis 4.1%
Garfield 3.8%
Salt Lake 3.5%
Statewide 3.2%
Weber 2.4%
Summit 1.7%
Cache 1.2%
Sevier 0.6%
Carbon 0.5%
Iron -0.3%
Kane -0.7%
Juab -0.8%
Tooele -0.9%
San Juan -2.6%
Beaver -3.7%
Millard -4.3%
Box Elder -4.4%
Rich -4.9%
Morgan -5.0%
Daggett -6.2%
Piute -10.2%
Emery -11.7%
Wayne -16.9%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. Box Elder County

15. Box Elder County Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rates: 2009 - 2012
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Box Elder Utah U.S.
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Box Elder County Year-Over Payroll
Jobs By Industry: 2009 - 2012
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
Box Elder Utah U.S.
-14.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. Box Elder County Year - Over Job Change
by Industry: March 2011 to March 2012
Professional/Business Svcs 229
Construction 218
Education/Health/Social Svcs 62
Leisure/Hospitality 51
Trade/Transportation/Utilities 14
Financial Activities 8
Other Services 7
Information -4
Mining -22
Government -300
Manufacturing -960
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

18. Box Elder County Percent Change in Nonfarm
Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012
Box Elder Utah
Professional/Business Svcs 35.4%
5.0%
Construction 24.5%
6.7%
Education/Health/Social Svcs 4.2%
4.2%
Leisure/Hospitality 4.0%
3.7%
Other Services 2.5%
2.9%
Financial Activities 2.2%
1.0%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities 0.4% 3.5%
Information -4.0%
4.9%
Total -4.2%
3.3%
Government -11.7%
1.0%
Manufacturing -17.9%
3.0%
Mining -66.7%
12.7%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

19. Box Elder County Total Employment by
Industry: January – March 2012
28.4%
21.7%
14.7%
10.2%
8.3%
6.2% 5.6%
2.4% 1.9%
0.6% 0.1%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

20. Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing
Job Growth Rates: 2007 to 2012
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
Total Nonfarm Employment Manufacturing
-25.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
*2011 4th quarter data is preliminary
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

21. Box Elder County 4-Week Moving Average of
Initial Unemployment Claims: 2007 to 2012
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
39.5
Jan Apr16.5 24.75
Jul 20.75
Oct
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

22. Box Elder County Weekly Average of 2nd
Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012
70
62
60
50 46
40 38
33
30 28
20 17 19
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

23. Box Elder County Percent Change in
Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012
Box Elder Utah
28%
17%
-12%
-38.7%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012 Qtr
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

24. Box Elder County Percent Change in Total
Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012
130.2%
113.4% Box Elder Utah
93.4%
16.0%
-6.0% -35.0% -26.0% -11.0%
29.0% 13.0%
-4.0%
-18.8%
-27.9%
-48.6% -51.1% -51.3%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
YTD Apr
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

25. Box Elder County Year-Over Change in Gross
Taxable Sales: 2009 to 2012 (Quarterly)
40.0%
Box Elder Utah
30.0% 28.0%
20.0% 17.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0% -38.7%
-50.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st Qtr
Source: Utah State Tax Commission

26. Cache County

27. Cache County Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rates: 2009 to 2012
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Cache Utah U.S.
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

28. Cache County Year-Over Payroll Jobs by
Industry: 2009 to 2012
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
Cache Utah U.S.
-8.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

29. Cache County Year - Over Job Change by
Industry: March 2011 to March 2012
Education/Health/Social Svcs 241
Leisure/Hospitality 210
Manufacturing 149
Information 79
Government 74
Trade/Transportation/Utilities 70
Financial Activities 21
Mining 4
Professional/Business Svcs -67
Construction -116
Other Services -54
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

30. Cache County Percent Change in Nonfarm
Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012
Cache Utah
Mining 66.7%
12.7%
Information 12.5%
4.9%
Leisure/Hospitality 5.5% 3.7%
Education/Health/Social Svcs 4.3% 3.1%
Financial Activities 1.5% 1.0%
Manufacturing 1.4%
3.0%
Total 1.2%
3.3%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities 1.0%
3.5%
Government 0.6%
1.0%
Professional/Business Svcs -1.3%
5.0%
Other Services -5.3%
2.9%
Construction -6.0%
6.7%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

31. Cache County Total Employment by
Industry: January – March 2012
25.5%
21.0%
14.3%
11.5%
10.2%
7.8%
3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.4%
0.0%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

32. Cache County 4- Week Moving Average of
Initial Unemployment Claims: 2008 to 2012
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan
56.25 Apr
23.5 Jul
27.5 Oct
55.75
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

33. Cache County Weekly Average of 2nd
Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012
100
90 91
90
79
80
70
60 57
50 47
40
32 31
30
20
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

34. Cache County Percent Change in Permitted
Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012
Cache Utah
74%
28%
16%
-7% -1% -48% -1% -3%
24%
-5%
-11% -11%
-21% -22%
-38%
-43%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
YTD* Apr
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

35. Cache County Percent Change in Total Permit-
Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012
Cache Utah
28.7% 29.3%
15.6%
12.5% 12.0%
-5.6% -34.5% -12.6% -10.8%
-2.0% -4.0% -2.7%
-9.5%
-26.1%
-29.1%
-42.8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

36. Cache County Year-Over Change in Gross
Taxable Sales: 2006 – 2012 (Quarterly)
20.0%
Cache Utah
15.0%
9.3% 9.8%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
10.5%
-5.0% -2.7%
-10.0%
-15.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st
Qtr
Source: Utah State Tax Commission

37. Rich County

38. Rich County Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rates
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Rich Utah U.S.
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

39. Rich County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By
Industry: 2009 to 2012
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
Rich Utah U.S.
-25.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

40. Rich County Percent Change in Nonfarm
Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012
Rich Utah
Mining 19%
12.7%
Professional/Business Svcs 5.0% 15%
Manufacturing 3.0% 4%
4%
Leisure/Hospitality 3.7%
Financial Actitivities 1.0% 0%
Education/Health Social Svcs 3.1% 0%
Total -4%
3.3%
Government -5%
1.0%
Information -8%
4.9%
Trade/Transportation/Utilities -19%
3.5%
Construction -20%
6.7%
Other Services -33% 2.9%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

41. Rich County Total Employment by Industry:
January – March 2012
47.6%
14.8%
11.6%
7.0% 5.9% 4.9%
2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

42. Rich County Percent Change in Permitted
Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012
Rich Utah
94.9%
62.5%
33.3%
24.3%
-6.9% -8.5% 0.0% -11.0% -3.4%
6.4% 16.4% -1.1%
-8.7%
-22.0%
-38.2%
-48.4%
-59.6%
-100.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YTD* Apr
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

43. Rich County Percent Change in Total
Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2004 to 2012
218.8% Rich Utah
156.3%
120.0%
73.7%
12.5% 15.6% -10.8%
-2.6% -3.6%
12.2% 28.7% -5.6% 15.6%
-34.5% -28.3% -44.1%
-83.7%
-142.1%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YTD* Apr
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research

44. Rich County Year-Over Change in Gross
Taxable Sales: 2006 to 2012 (Quarterly)
Rich Utah 523.6%
442.0%
60.7%
29.7% 45.4%
20.4% -91.8%
6.1% 1.1%
-3.8% -1.9% -2.6%
-24.5% -37.1%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st Qtr
Source: Utah State Tax Commission

45. Q&A

46. For More Information:
Ivy Austria
Northern Region Economist
Department of Workforce Services
iaustria@utah.gov
(801) 526-9467