Maize Pathways workshop presentation 2: MCM findings

Environmental Change and Maize
Innovation in Kenya:
Exploring pathways in and out of maize
Findings from a Multicriteria Mapping Study
Presentation 2 of 3

National Dissemination Workshop
Hilton Hotel, Nairobi – 22 March 2010
STEPS Kenya Partners:
ACTS – African Centre for Technology Studies
CABE – Centre for African Bio-Entrepreneurship
Tegemeo Institute, Egerton University
IDS – Institute of Development Studies, UK
SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research,
University of Sussex, UK

Multicriteria Mapping (MCM) Overview
• What we did
– 23 interviews conducted in November 2009
– Some individual, Some in groups
– Nairobi-based informants and Sakai Farmers

MCM Overview

1. Discuss 2. Develop a
pathways set of criteria

3. Score pathways
under each
5. Reflect on criterion; optimistic
outcome & pessimistic
scores to reflect
uncertainty

4. Assign
weight to
each criterion

• What we did
• Conducting the MCM interviews
– Nine pathways evaluated discussing agricultural pathways ‘in
and out of maize’
– 147 different and unique criteria defined by informants to
evaluate the pathways
• Analysing the MCM data
– Identify groups of informants
– Identify groups of criteria
– Evaluate pathway performance rankings
– Analyse the qualitative information provided in the assessments

• What we did
• Conducting the MCM interviews
– Nine pathways evaluated discussing agricultural pathways ‘in and out of maize’
– 147 different and unique criteria defined by informants to evaluate the pathways

• Analysing the MCM data
– Identify groups of informants
– Identify sets of criteria
– Evaluate pathway performance rankings
– Analyse the qualitative information provided in the
assessments

Groups of informants
1. Sakai Farmers (11 interviews)
a) Gender
b) Income level
2. Nairobi-based Informants (12 interviews)
a) Public sector officials
b) Commercially oriented
c) Science and technology institutes
d) Biotechnology focus

Sets of criteria: Macro and Micro Issues

• Economic and Market Issues 71 criteria
– Resource costs 23 criteria
– Availability and access to resources 30 criteria
– Market aspects 18 criteria

• Stress Tolerance Issues 43 criteria
– Water use 17 criteria
– Pests and disease resistance 14 criteria
– Suitability of crop to agro-ecological conditions 12 criteria

• Social, Political & Cultural Issues 33 criteria
– Knowledge and skills 14 criteria
– Social and cultural 9 criteria
– Food security 10 criteria

Evaluating pathway ‘performance rankings’

• Performance rankings are literal ‘maps’ of pathway scores
• Averaged across groups of stakeholder & sets of criteria
(issues)

• High end of range indicates average optimistic scores
• Low end of range indicates average pessimistic scores
• Length of range (or bar) indicates uncertainty & ambiguity
expressed
– Uncertainty is expressed by individuals in a stakeholder group
– Ambiguity is the result of disagreement between stakeholders

Qualitative analysis of the pathway evaluations

• Used to identify groups of stakeholders
with shared points of view
• Used to group criteria according to shared
themes
• Clarifies the reasons for convergence and
divergence in the pathways performance
rankings

Pathways out of maize: Orphans or siblings?
Performance rankings for low and high income Sakai farmers against a set of economic
Performance Rankings for Low income and High income Sakai Farmers under Economic and Market Issues
and market criteria show different perceptions of barriers based on income level

Alternative staples for subsistence
Alternative staples for market
Local improvement of local maize seed Low income Sakai
farmers
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) (3 interview s)
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Economic &
Individual high-value crop commercialization market issues (12
criteria)
Group-based high-value crop commercialization
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties
Public delivery of new maize varieties
Local improvement of local maize seed
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) High income Sakai
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) farmers
Individual high-value crop commercialization (8 interview s)
Economic &
market issues (28
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties criteria)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Performance Rankings

Pathways out of maize: Orphans or siblings?
Performance rankings for different groups of stakeholders shows a surprising
amount of optimism about alternative Focused, and Public Sector Seed Perspectives under Stress Tolerance Issues a set of
Performance Rankings for Sakai Farmers, Biotechnology dryland staple crops, especially under
stress tolerance criteria
Alternative staples for market Sakai Farmers
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) (11 interviews)
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Stress Tolerance
Individual high-value crop commercialization issues (22 criteria)
Local improvement of local maize seed Biotech Focus
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) (5 interviews)
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Stress tolerance
Individual high-value crop commercialization
Group-based high-value crop commercialization issues (9 criteria)
Alternative staples for market Public sector
Local improvement of local maize seed (3 interviews)
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Stress tolerance
Assisted seed multiplication (maize)
Individual high-value crop commercialization issues (8
Group-based high-value crop commercialization criteria)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

Getting the value without the high risk?
Performance rankings (female), Sakai farmers (male), Sakai farmers (low income) and Sakai farmers (high income)
Performance Rankings for Sakai farmers
show preference for group-based approaches
and some variation in performance based on income level
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops)
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Female Sakai
Individual high-value crop commercialization farmers
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties (5 interview s)
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Male Sakai
Individual high-value crop commercialization farmers
Group-based high-value crop commercialization (6 interview s)
Alternative staples for market Low income
Local improvement of local maize seed Sakai farmers
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) (3 interview s)
Individual high-value crop commercialization l = 25
Alternative staples for subsistence High income
Alternative staples for market Sakai farmers
Individual high-value crop commercialization l=4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pathways out of maize: Getting the value without the high risk?
Performance rankings (low and high income) under 'availability & access toeconomic and market
Performance Rankings for Sakai farmers show perceptions of resources' and 'resource costs' issues
barriers differ based on income level
Alternative staples for subsistence Low income Sakai farmers
Local improvement of local maize seed (2 interview s)
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Availability and access to
Group-based high-value crop commercialization resources issues
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties (5 criteria)
Alternative staples for subsistence High income Sakai farmers
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) Availability and access to
Group-based high-value crop commercialization resources issues
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties (16 criteria)
Alternative staples for market Low income Sakai farmers
Individual high-value crop commercialization Resource costs issues
Group-based high-value crop commercialization (4 criteria)
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Resource costs issues
Individual high-value crop commercialization (10 criteria)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Pathways out of maize: Getting the value without the high risk?
Performance Rankings for Sakai farmers (low and high income) under water and pest and disease resistance issues
Performance rankings show the real deal-breaker might be water

Alternative staples for market (3 interviews)
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) l = 6.5 Water issues (3 criteria)
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Water issues (7 criteria)
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties l=3
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Pest & disease resistance
Individual high-value crop commercialization issues (3 criteria)
Public delivery of new maize varieties High income Sakai farmers
Alternative staples for subsistence (7 interviews)
Local improvement of local maize seed Pest & disease resistance
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) issues (7 criteria)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Pathways in maize: Living in parallel worlds?
Performance rankings for low and high income farmers shows different
perceptions ofSakai farmers (low Income)based on (high income)
Performance Rankings for uncertainty and Sakai farmers wealth

l = 42
Individual high-value crop commercialization Low income
Group-based high-value crop commercialization Sakai farmers
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties (3 interviews)
l = 22
Individual high-value crop commercialization High income
Sakai farmers
(8 interviews)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pathways in maize: Living in parallel worlds?
Performance rankings for different groups of Nairobi-based informants
Performance Rankings for Science and Technology Institute Managers, Biotechnology Focused, and Commercially Oriented Perspectives
show assisted seed pathways are ‘consistent’ performers
Alternative staples for market S&T Institutes

Alternative staples for subsistence Biotech Focus
Alternative staples for market (5 interview s)

Individual high-value crop commercialization Commercially
Group-based high-value crop commercialization Oriented

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pathways in maize:
Performance rankings for groupsCommercially oriented and Biotechnology-focussed perspectives show a
Performance Rankings for Public sector, S&T Institutes, of Nairobi-based informants
variety of high performing pathways, but rarely high maize options
Group-based high-value crop commercialization Public sector
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties officials
(3 interview s)
Local improvement of local maize seed S&T Institutes
Local improvement of local maize seed Commercially
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Oriented
Biotech Focus
Alternative staples for subsistence (5 interview s)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Pathways in maize:
Sakai farmerPerformance Rankings for Sakai Farmers (all) Sakai Farmers (Low Income) and Sakai High Income Farmers local maize,
performance rankings show a preference for
not new maize
Group-based high-value crop commercialization Sakai Farmers (all)
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties 11 interview s
Sakai Farmers
Group-based high-value crop commercialization (low income)
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties 3 interview s
Sakai Farmers
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) (high income)
Individual high-value crop commercialization 8 interview s

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Pathways in maize: Maize Security ≠ Food Security
Performance rankingsforshow that Economiclocal maize pathways perform well under
Performance Rankings Sakai Farmers under the and Market, Stress Tolerance and Social/Political/Cultural Issues
economic and market criteria, but less well under sets of stress tolerance criteria
Group-based high-value crop commercialization Sakai Farmers
Public delivery of new maize varieties Economic and market
issues
Alternative staples for market (40 criteria)
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Sakai Farmers
Group-based high-value crop commercialization Stress tolerance
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties issues
(22 criteria)
Alternative staples for market Sakai Farmers
Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops) Social/political/
Individual high-value crop commercialization cultural issues
Group-based high-value crop commercialization (12 criteria)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Pathways in maize: Maize Security ≠ Food Security
Performance rankings for groups of Nairobi-based informants against a set of
stress tolerance for Public sector, S&T Institutes, Commercially oriented and Biotechnology-focussed perspectivesnew maize varieties
Performance Rankings criteria show a higher performance for under Stress tolerance issues

Alternative staples for subsistence Public sector
Alternative staples for market officials
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) 8 criteria
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) S&T Institutes
Commercial delivery of new maize varieties 9 criteria
Alternative staples for subsistence Commercially
Local improvement of local maize seed Oriented
Individual high-value crop commercialization 9 criteria
Alternative staples for market Biotech Focus
Assisted seed multiplication (maize) 9 criteria

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

What does this mean for policy and
practice?

Maize Pathways workshop presentation 2: MCM findings

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