Stora Enso Financial Results Q3/2013 presentation

1. Financial Results Q3 2013
CEO Jouko Karvinen and acting CFO Jyrki Tammivuori
22 October 2013

2. It should be noted that certain statements herein which are not historical facts, including, without
limitation those regarding expectations for market growth and developments; expectations for growth
and profitability; and statements preceded by “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “foresees”, or similar
expressions, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Since these statements are based on current plans. estimates and
projections, they involve risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to materially differ from
those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: (1)
operating factors such as continued success of manufacturing activities and the achievement of
efficiencies therein, continued success of product development, acceptance of new products or services
by the Group’s targeted customers, success of the existing and future collaboration arrangements,
changes in business strategy or development plans or targets, changes in the degree of protection
created by the Group’s patents and other intellectual property rights, the availability of capital on
acceptable terms; (2) industry conditions, such as strength of product demand, intensity of competition,
prevailing and future global market prices for the Group’s products and the pricing pressures thereto.
price fluctuations in raw materials, financial condition of the customers and the competitors of the
Group, the potential introduction of competing products and technologies by competitors; and (3)
general economic conditions, such as rates of economic growth in the Group’s principal geographic
markets or fluctuations in exchange and interest rates.
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
2

3. Significantly higher Operational EBIT compared to Q2
•
Operational EBIT EUR 184 million
•
Cash flow from Operations EUR 331
million
•
Liquidity EUR 2.1 billion
•
ROCE 9.0%
•
Net debt/Operational EBITDA LTM 2.5x
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
3

4. EBITDA improved quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year
Solid Cash Flow from Operations
Cash flow from operations, 4Q rolling
Operational EBITDA, 4Q rolling
360
340
EUR million
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
12Q2
12Q3
22 October 2013
12Q4
13Q1
13Q2
13Q3
4

5. European overcapacity persists in all other grades
except newsprint
4%
38000
2%
37000
0%
36000
-2%
35000
-4%
34000
-6%
33000
-8%
32000
Y-o-Y change %
6%
39000
-10%
Y-o-Y Paper
31000
-12%
Annualized Paper
SA = seasonally adjusted
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
-14%
Apr-11
30000
Jan-11
Annualized demand [kt/a]
40000
Source: Euro-Graph
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
5

6. Decreasing fixed cost
720
700
680
660
640
620
600
580
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
Fixed cost
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
13Q1
13Q2
13Q3
4 Quarter rolling average
22 October 2013
6

7. Transformation projects up-date
MDP pulp mill, Uruguay and consumer board machine in Guangxi, China
•
Montes del Plata pulp mill:
– Start-up during first months of 2014
– Expected production half a million
tonnes for Stora Enso in 2014
•
Guangxi consumer board mill:
– MOFCOM approvals expected to be
received before end of 2013
– The mill start-up expected in the
beginning of 2016
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
7

8. Transformation from European pulp and paper company
towards a value-creating renewable materials company
Sales 2008
Sales Q3/13
Renewable
Packaging
Renewable
Packaging
Printing
and
Reading
Printing
and
Reading
Biomaterial
Biomaterial
Building
and Living
Building
and Living
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
8

10. Summary financials
Q3 2013
Change %
EUR million
Q3/13
Sales
Q2/13
Q3/12
Change %
Q3 13 / Q3 12 Q3 13 / Q2 13
2 556
2 717
2 694
-5.1
-5.9
311
247
302
3.0
25.9
Operational EBITDA, %
12.2
9.1
11.2
8.9
34.1
Operational EBIT
184
124
178
3.4
48.4
Operational EBIT margin, %
7.2
4.6
6.6
9.1
56.5
125
0.13
0.11
9.0
60
0.05
0.02
5.8
102
0.10
0.11
8.2
22.5
30.0
0.0
9.8
108.3
160.0
n/m
55.2
10.4
7.3
9.5
9.5
42.5
331
344
312
6.1
-3.8
2.5
2.7
2.8
-10.7
-7.4
Operational EBITDA
Profit before tax excl. NRI
EPS excl. NRI, EUR
EPS (basic), EUR
Operational ROCE, %
Operational ROCE, % excl. transformation
investments
Cash Flow from Operations
Net debt/last 12 months’ operational EBITDA
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
10

11. Profit generation relatively stable year-on-year
Group operational EBIT
Q3 2012 vs Q3 2013
184
178
Q3 2012 Sales price Volume
& mix
Variable
costs
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
Fixed
costs
22 October 2013
Other
Q3 2013
11

12. The biggest EBIT contribution from Renewable
Packaging
Operational EBIT Q3 2013
Change %
EUR million
Printing and Reading
Biomaterials
Building and Living
Renewable Packaging
Other
Group Total
Q3/13
Q2/13
13
17
24
100
30
184
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
-17
14
28
77
22
124
22 October 2013
Q3/12
53
32
1
83
9
178
Change %
Q3 13 / Q3 12 Q3 13 / Q2 13
-75.5
-46.9
n/m
20.5
233.3
3.4
176.5
21.4
-14.3
29.9
36.4
48.4
12

13. Guidance
Compared to Q4 2012
– Sales expected to be lower
– Operational EBIT clearly lower
– Strong contributions in Q3 from
Renewable Packaging and Building
and Living cause exceptional
seasonality to occur in Q4
Operational EBIT
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
13

14. Summary
•
Q3 operational EBIT significantly higher
•
Solid cash flow – further improved liquidity
•
Fixed costs savings proceeding
•
European paper market remains weak
•
Transformation proceeding
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
14

15. Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
15

16. Operational EBIT by segments
EUR million
Printing and Reading
% of sales
Biomaterials
% of sales
Building and Living
% of sales
Renewable Packaging
% of sales
Other
% of sales
Q3/13
Q2/13
Q3/12
13
1.2
17
7.0
24
5.2
100
12.1
30
4.9
-17
-1.5
14
5.4
28
5.6
77
9.2
22
3.2
53
4.3
32
11.9
1
0.2
83
10.2
9
1.4
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
Change %
Change %
Q3 13 / Q3 12 Q3 13 / Q2 13
-75.5
-72.1
-46.9
-41.2
n/m
n/m
20.5
18.6
233.3
250.0
176.5
180.0
21.4
29.6
-14.3
-7.1
29.9
31.5
36.4
53.1
16

17. Capex and Equity Injections for 2013 decreased
EUR million
Forecast 2013
Capital expenditure*
400-450
Equity injections
75
Total
475-525
Depreciation
580-600
*Capital expenditure includes approximately EUR 40-80 million for project in Guangxi, China
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
17

18. Fixed costs to sales developing to the right direction
110%
108%
106%
104%
102%
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
13Q1
13Q2
13Q3
Fixed costs to Sales 11Q1 = 100
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
18

19. Working capital reduced
Q1 2011 – Q3 2013
19,5 %
2 100
19,0 %
2 000
EUR million
2 200
18,5 %
1 900
18,0 %
1 800
17,5 %
1 700
17,0 %
1 600
16,5 %
1 500
16,0 %
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3
Operative Working Capital at the end of Q
Working Capital per Sales ratio
*Operative working capital = trade receivables + inventories – trade payables
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
19

20. Balance Sheet strength
Q1 2011 – Q3 2013
Net Debt
Net Debt/Operational EBITDA*
3 500
3.0
3 000
2.7
EUR million
2.7
2.5
2 500
2 000
2.8
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.3
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
1.5
1 500
1.0
1 000
500
0.5
0
0.0
11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3
*Last twelve months’ operational EBITDA
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
20

21. Permanent pulp, paper and board capacity reductions
since 2006
Mill
Date
Grade
Capacity reduction, t
Corbehem PM 3 and PM 4
Jun 2006
LWC
250 000
Varkaus PM 1
End 2006
WFC
95 000
Berghuizer Mill
Oct 2007
WFU
235 000
Reisholz Mill
End 2007
SC
215 000
Summa Mill
Jan 2008
Newsprint, uncoated mag, book paper
415 000
Anjala Mill PM1
Feb 2008
Coated magazine paper
155 000
Baienfurt Mill
End 2008
FBB
190 000
Kabel Mill PM 3
End 2008
Coated magazine
140 000
Kemijärvi Pulp Mill
April 2008
Long-fibre (SW) pulp
250 000
Norrsundet Pulp Mill
Dec 2008
Long-fibre (SW), pulp
300 000
Varkaus Mill coreboard machine
Dec 2008
Coreboard
100 000
Imatra PM 8
Mar 2010
WFU
210 000
Varkaus PM 2 and PM 4
Sep 2010
Newsprint, directory paper
290 000
Maxau PM 7
Nov 2010
Newsprint
195 000
Hylte PM1
Dec 2012
Newsprint
180 000
Hylte PM2
May 2013
Newsprint
205 000
Kvarnsveden PM11
May 2013
Newsprint
270 000
Total
3 695 000
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
21

22. Permanent sawn wood capacity reductions
since 2006
Capacity reduction, m3
Mill
Date
Veitsiluoto Sawmill
2006
100 000
Honkalahti Sawmill
2006
90 000
Sauga Sawmill
Jun 2007
130 000
Sollenau Sawmill
2007
110 000
Näpi Sawmill
2007-2008
100 000
Kotka Sawmill
2007-2008
70 000
Paikuse Sawmill
End 2008
220 000
Zdirec Sawmill
2008
120 000
Ybbs Sawmill
2008 & Jun 2009
200 000
Kitee Sawmill
2008 & Jun 2009
130 000
Varkaus Sawmill
Jun 2009
60 000
Tolkkinen Sawmill
End 2009
260 000
Kopparfors Sawmill
End 2011
310 000
Total
1 900 000
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
22

23. Net Financial Items
EUR million
Change % Change %
Q313/Q312 Q313/Q213
Q3/2013
Q2/2013
Q3/2012
-52
-51
-44
-18
-2
7
-12
-1
n/m
n/m
-11
16
-18
39
n/m
3
3
2
-4
7
-16
Fair valuation of long-term debt
-
-
-
NewPage lease provision
-
-
-
Pension costs (IAS 19R)
-4
-4
-3
Other items
-6
10
-1
-56
-47
-63
11
-19
Net interest expense
Foreign exchange gains and losses
Other financial items. of which
PIK notes
Fair valuation of interest rate derivatives*
Total net financial items
*Not hedge accounted interest rate derivatives.
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
23

24. Transaction risk and hedges
as at 30 September 2013
EUR million
USD
SEK
GBP
Estimated annual net operating cash flow exposure
1 020
-840
500
Transaction hedges as at 30 Jun 2013
-480
420
-250
Hedging percentage as at 30 Jun 2013 for the next 12 months
47%
50%
50%
USD and GBP have additional hedges for 13-15 months which will increase the hedging
percentage with 1% and 4% respectively.
Operational EBIT: Currency strengthening of + 10 % EUR million
USD
102
SEK
-84
GBP
50
The sensitivity is based on estimated next 12 months net operating cash flow. The
calculation does not take into account currency hedges, and assumes no changes occur
other than a single currency exchange rate movement. Weakening would have the
opposite impact.
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
24

25. Curtailments
of capacity
16
14
12
% of the capacity
10
8
6
4
2
0
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
Paper and Board
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
13Q1
13Q2
13Q3
Wood Products
22 October 2013
25

26. Softwood pulp prices
Stora Enso’s market pulp is softwood
1 050
950
Bleached softwood kraft
pulp
750
Bleached hardwood kraft
pulp
650
550
450
07Q1
07Q2
07Q3
07Q4
08Q1
08Q2
08Q3
08Q4
09Q1
09Q2
09Q3
09Q4
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2
11Q3
11Q4
12Q1
12Q2
12Q3
12Q4
13Q1
13Q2
13Q3
USD/tonne
850
Source: FOEX
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
26

27. Pulp wood and saw log prices
Wood prices in Finland
Pulpwood, Pine
Sawlogs, Pine
80
70
50
40
30
20
13Q3
13Q2
13Q1
12Q4
12Q3
12Q2
12Q1
11Q4
11Q3
11Q2
11Q1
10Q4
10Q3
10Q2
10Q1
09Q4
09Q3
09Q2
09Q1
08Q4
08Q3
08Q2
08Q1
07Q4
07Q3
07Q2
07Q1
06Q4
06Q3
0
06Q2
10
06Q1
EUR/m3
60
Source: METLA
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
27

28. Paper for Recycling prices
Mixed
OCC
De-inking
200
120
80
40
13Q3
13Q2
13Q1
12Q4
12Q3
12Q2
12Q1
11Q4
11Q3
11Q2
11Q1
10Q4
10Q3
10Q2
10Q1
09Q4
09Q3
09Q2
09Q1
08Q4
08Q3
08Q2
08Q1
07Q4
07Q3
07Q2
0
07Q1
EUR/tonne
160
German RCP price development. free delivered
Source: Verband Deutscher Papierfabriken/Stora Enso
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
28

29. Maturity profile Q3 2013
€ million
Bonds
Other loans / liabilities
Commercial paper
900
800
€ 500m 5.0% 2018
SEK 2.2 bn S+3.9% 2017
SEK 500m 5.75% 2017
700
600
500
€ 500m 5.5% 2019
400
300
200
100
0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021-2035
2036
Revolving Credit Facility € 700 million matures in January 2015 and is fully undrawn
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
29

30. Energy balance* Q3 2013
Impact** on operating profit from
10% change in:
EUR million p.a.
Electricity market price
~1
Fossil fuel price
~14
**) Remaining impact on non-hedged volume
*) Pulp. paper and board mills. Europe and overseas
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
30

31. Stora Enso Electricity procurement* Q3 2013
*) Pulp. paper and board mills. Europe and overseas
Stora Enso Q3 2013 Financial Results
22 October 2013
31