The Future of Online Video

Presenter name Company name The Future of On-line Video Distribution Alan Patrick, Senior Associate Analyst, STL Partners [email_address]

Summary Points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

‘ On-line Video Distribution’ – our research definition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Shifting Sands in the Video Value Chain Consumer Aggregation Devices Content Creation Distribution

Online Video – Current revenue forecasts are uncertain Current Forecasts of Global Video & TV Market $ billion Source: The Diffusion Group, Informa, STL Partners Analysis Total Online Video market c $2bn in 2008 c $18bn in 2012???

Emerging industry shape Creation Aggregation Curated Content Professional Content Pure Aggregation User-Generated Content Joost YouTube Phreadz Source: Revision 3, STL Partners analysis

3 possible scenarios for the future Old Order ,[object Object],[object Object],Pirate World ,[object Object],[object Object],New Order ,[object Object],[object Object]

3 Possible Scenarios (more detail) Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution Report, to be published December 2008 Content Creation Aggregation Distribution Customer Environment Old Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Pirate World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],New Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

… .and how they play out over time Old Order Pirate World New Order 2 - 3 years c 5 years Market Share

User-Generated Video creates traffic, but Long Form creates value Source: The Diffusion Group Online Video Traffic ... ...and Advertising Revenues 2013

The wisdom of surveys: Telcos/ISPs lose out Big Winner Big Loser Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution, Experts Survey, October 2008; n=176

The wisdom of surveys: IPTV does not save the day Most Popular Least Popular Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution , Experts Survey, October 2008; n=176

Telco/ISP response: Restore market rationality fast Old Order Pirate World New Order Now c 5 years Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution Report, to be published December 2008 Control of CPE in the home Policing content rights 2-sided business model & customer data mining fully established Eco-system of partners Flat Rate User Subsidy User VAS & Bundles Additional upstream services Upstream VAS Platform CDN & QoS Upstream service

Summary of Playout Assumptions in model Source: STL Partners Telco 2.0 Internet Video Distribution Report, to be published December 2008 Now 2 – 5 Years 5 Years 10 Years Old Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Pirate World ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],New Order ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Today’s Questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Future of Online Video

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The Future of Online Video