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PACU Nursing Staffing:
 Optimizing Quality and Cost
2010 World Conference on Quality and Improvement
                        May 25, 2010


              Alexander Kolker, PhD
                     Outcomes Department
     Children’s Hospital and Health System, Milwaukee, WI



                       Project Team
    Brett Norell, MHA/MPH; Mary O’Connor, RN, MSN, MBA
     Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin, Surgical Services


                                                            1
Outline



• The use of Management Engineering methodology for
  staffing decision-making.

• Case Study 1 - Quality and Cost: Outpatient Flu Clinic.

• Case Study 2 - Quality and Cost : Optimal PACU Nursing
  Staffing.

• Overall Take-Away.

• Summary of Fundamental Management Engineering
  Principles.



                                                            2
Some Definitions

What is Management?
Management is controlling and leveraging available resources (material, financial
and human) aimed at achieving the performance objectives.

Traditional (Intuitive) Management is based on
• Past experience.
• Intuition or educated guess.
• Static pictures or simple linear projections.
Linear projection assumes that the output is directly proportional to the input, i.e.
the more resources (material and human) thrown in, the more output produced
(and vice versa.)
                               System output




                                                 Resource input
                                                                                        3
What is Management Engineering?



  • Management Engineering (ME) is the discipline of building
    and using validated mathematical models of real systems to
    study their behavior aimed at making justified business
    decisions.

  • This field is also known as operations research.




Thus, Management Engineering is the application of mathematical
methods to system analysis and decision-making




                                                                  4
Case Study 1

 Quality and Cost:

Outpatient Flu Clinic



                        5
Problem Description

An outpatient flu clinic is supposed to open during a flu season to provide H1N1
flu vaccine shots on a walk-in basis. The clinic stays open from 8:00 a.m. to
6:00 p.m.
It is expected that on an average day patient arrival rate will be:
       • from 8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. - about 9 patients per hour
       • from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. - about 15 patients per hour
       • from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. - about 9 patients per hour
       • from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. - about 12 patients per hour

Key point: the average patient arrival rate is highly variable during a typical day.
• Giving a shot will take on average about 8 minutes but could be in the
  range from 6 minutes to 10 minutes.

• Flu shot costs a patient $20; the clinic’s cost of one vaccine dose and
  supplies is $1. Staffing pay rate is $14/hour.



                                                                                       6
The Goal




            Clinic’s management should decide:

•   How many medical providers are needed to staff the clinic
    on a typical day?

•   What will the projected net revenue be (on a daily basis)?




                                                                 7
Traditional Management Approach

• Projected total average number of patients for a typical day is 120
  (=9*2+15*4+9*2+12*2).
• One provider is going to serve on average 60 minutes/8 minutes = 7.5
  patients/hour.
• Hence 120/7.5 =16 hours of staffing time will be needed to serve all patients.
• Thus, two medical providers should be scheduled to staff the clinic.
• One is scheduled to work 8 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. and another is
  scheduled to work from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (Lunch and a few short
  breaks are extra time.) Practically no (or very short) patient waiting time is
  expected.
• An average daily revenue is going to be 120*$20 = $2,400.
• Labor cost for two staff team is $14/hour*16 hours = $224.
• The total daily vaccine and supplies average costs is $120.
• Hence, the average clinic’s daily net revenue is expected to be
  $2,400 - $224 - $120 = $2,056.
                                                                                   8
Management Engineering Approach


• Because of inevitable variability of the daily number of patients
  coming for the shot and the time it takes to give a shot, the
  actual staffing needs and the actual estimated net revenue will
  differ significantly from the average values.

• On top of that, it is observed that some patients will leave
  without a shot if their waiting time is longer than 20 minutes.

• In order to develop a realistic evaluation of clinic performance,
  the process variability and patients leaving without a shot should
  be taken into account.

• It is possible only using simulation analysis of clinic’s operations.



                                                                          9
Management Engineering Approach


    Flu clinic simulation model layout

             Resources:
             RN1, RN2 and part time RN3




                                          10
Management Engineering Approach
Scenario 1 - Baseline
 One provider works 8 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.
 Another provider works 8 hours from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

• Predicted Clinic’s Performance Results
       95% percent Confidence Interval for the number of served patients: 93 to 94
       (much lower than anticipated 120 patients !!!)
       Because of waiting longer than 20 minutes, 19 to 20 patients (16% to 17%) will
       leave without a shot.
       Total daily clinic net revenue is going to be $1,163 (much lower than expected
       $2,056 based on averages)
• Next step
  Does it make sense to extend staff working hours to increase net revenue and
  reduce the number of leaving patients?

    Note
    From a traditional management standpoint this is not needed because 16
    hours of working time on average is enough to meet the average patient
    demand for service time. Therefore extended hours would result in staff
    under-utilization.

                                                                                        11
Management Engineering Approach

Scenario 2
Both providers work 10 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (total 20 hours of work time)


• Predicted Clinic’s Performance Results
       The number of served patients: 113.
       Because of waiting longer than 20 minutes, only 2 to 3 patients will leave
       without a shot.
       Total daily clinic net revenue is going to be $1,822 (much better than the
       baseline value $1,163 but still lower than the expected based on averages.)
• Take-away
       Extended staffing work hours results in additional operational and staffing
       costs; however, this costs is well offset by a higher clinic revenue because
       more paying patients will be served.

  Management Question
  Is it possible to improve the clinic’s performance if a third provider is added on a
  part-time basis (in addition to two full time extended hours’ staff)?



                                                                                         12
Management Engineering Approach
Scenario 3
Two staff work 10 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (total 20 hours of work time)
Additional provider works part-time in the morning from 8:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. (0.6 FTE)

 • Predicted Clinic’s Performance Results
        The number of served patients: 113 to 114.
        Because of waiting longer than 20 minutes, only 1 to 2 patients will leave
        without a shot.
        Total daily clinic’s net revenue is going to be $1,786 which is less than that
        in Scenario 2.
 • Take-away
        Placing third provider in the morning shift does not result in improving
        clinic’s performance.
        Gain from serving only a few more patients does not offset the cost of
        keeping additional staff.

 Management Question
 How is the performance affected if a third part-time staff is placed in the afternoon
 from 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.?


                                                                                           13
Management Engineering Approach

Scenario 4
Two providers work 10 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (total 20 hours of work time.)
Additional provider works part-time in the afternoon shift from 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.

•   Predicted Clinic’s Performance Results
       The number of served patients: 117-118.
       NO patients will leave because of waiting longer than 20 minutes.
       Total daily clinic net revenue is going to be $1,871 which is better
       than for all previous scenarios.
• Take-away
       The third provider placed in the right shift does help to serve more
       patients and increase profitability despite the higher costs of
       keeping one more additional individual.




                                                                                         14
Summary of the Analyzed Scenarios
                                                 Number of     Left
#    Operations            Description             served     without   Daily net                NOTE
      Scenario                                    patients     shot     revenue
                                                  (95% CI)   (95% CI)
1   Baseline         2 providers: 8:00 a.m. –      120          0        $2,056     Projected data are based on
                     4:00 p.m. shift and 10:00                                      the average service time and
                     a.m. to 6:00 p.m. shift                                        the average number of
                                                                                    patients
                                                  93 – 94    19 – 20     $1,163     Data are based on the variable
                                                                                    service time and the variable
                                                                                    number of patients
2   Extended         2 providers: 8:00 a.m. to   113 – 114    2–3        $1,822     Additional staffing cost is offset
    shift            6:00 p.m. shift for both                                       by revenue from serving more
                                                                                    patients
3   Extended         2 providers: 8:00 a.m. to   113 – 114    1–2        $1,786     Additional staffing cost is NOT
    shift with       6:00 p.m. shift for both;                                      offset by revenue from serving
    additional 0.6   additional 0.6 FTE from                                        a few more patients
    FTE in the       8:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m.
    morning
4   Extended         2 providers: 8:00 a.m. to   117 – 118      0        $1,871     Additional staffing cost is offset
    shift with       6:00 p.m. shift for both;                                      by revenue from serving more
    additional 0.6   additional 0.6 FTE from                                        patients
    FTE in the       1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
    afternoon



                                                                                                                         15
Management Engineering Approach

  CONCLUSIONS
  • Many other scenarios of staffing shifts and clinic’s operation modes are possible
    to analyze using a simulation model.
  • This example provides illustration of the flaw of averages in traditional
    managerial decision-making.
  • Thus, in contrast to traditional ‘pen and paper’ guesswork managerial approach,
    management engineering simulation methodology allows predicting process
    performance outcomes and, thus, making truly efficient managerial
    decisions.

Note
Many other illustrations of fundamental deficiency of managerial decisions based on average
input data without taking into account inevitable process and data variability are provided, for
example, in:
   Savage, S., 2009. The Flaw of Averages. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Hoboken, New Jersey, pp. 392.
   Kolker, A., 2009. Queuing Theory and Discrete Events Simulation for Health Care: from basic processes to
   complex systems with interdependencies. Chapter 20. In: Handbook of Research on Discrete Event Simulation.
   Technologies and Applications. IGI-press Global, pp.443-483.


                                                                                                                16
Case Study 2

      Quality and Cost:

Optimal PACU Nursing Staffing




                                17
Problem Description

•   PACU nursing daily workload is highly variable because patient census often
    changes fast from 0 to the peak value within an hour or two.

•   The required adequate number of nurses to care for the volume of patients
    entering the PACU from the OR is not known.

•   The anesthesiologist and the OR nurse are required to take care of the
    patient until a PACU nurse becomes available. This in turn results in:
              Delays in OR because anesthesiologist and OR nurse are not
              available.
              Frustration among OR staff and surgeons due to delay of cases.
              A sense of urgency among PACU staff to ‘hurry’ with the current
              patient, so they could take another waiting patient.
              This pressure greatly increased the risk of medical errors because
              the nurses are rushed.

•   Managers should manually reset the staffing (up or down) within a few hours
    of staffing periods trying to keep the required nurse-to-patient ratio
    (in acute care it is 1:1).


                                                                                   18
The Goal


Develop a methodology for calculating an optimal PACU nursing staffing
plan that provides simultaneous maximizing of:


      • The percent of patients cared for with the required
        nurse-to-patient ratio 1:1 (improving quality of care).

                                 and

      • Staff utilization (decreasing the cost of overtime and
        the cost of extended shift coverage).




                                                                         19
Traditional Management


•   PACU managers typically adjusted nursing staffing
    needs manually based on the past historical average
    number of patients.

•   Because of high variability of the actual number of
    patients around the average, the resulting staffing
    usually either is not enough to deliver proper quality of
    care or it is not cost-effective.




                                                                20
Typical plot of the PACU daily average number of patients (on annual basis)
            16

                                                                                                                             Staff on this level ?
            14


            12


            10
 Patients




            8

                                                                                                            or Staff on these levels ?
            6


            4


            2
                                                                                                                                                     4

            0
                 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23
                 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00
 MEAN            0 0.4 1.6 2.9 4.2 5.3 5.7 6 6.2 6.2 6 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 6.2 4.4 3.9 3.4 3 2.3 2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2
 MIN             0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0    0     1   1   0   0   0   0    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
 MAX             1   3   7   9   10 11 11 15 13 12 12 12 11 13 12 11 13 12 13 11 11                     9   11   9   6   5   3   4   4   3   3   3   2
 MEDIAN          0   0   1   3   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5    5     5   6   4   4   3   3    2   2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0
 MODE            0   0   1   3   5   6   6   6   6   7   5   5   6   6   6   5    4     4   7   4   3   3   3    2   2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0
                                                                                 Time



                                                                                                                                                         21
Management Engineering Approach
Step 1
Layout of the simulation model for calculating PACU census at every moment in
which it is changed based on the balance of admissions and discharges.




         Census (i) (current period) = census (i-1) (previous period) +
         [# admissions (i) – # discharges (i) ]; i = 1, 2, 3, …….

                                                                                22
census PACU
                                                                                       Calculated census for 40 weeks
      13
      12
      11
      10
       9
       8
       7
cns




       6
       5
       4
       3
       2
       1
       0
              0     168 336 504 672 840 1008 1176 1344 1512 1680 1848 2016 2184 2352 2520 2688 2856 3024 3192 3360 3528 3696 3864 4032 4200 4368 4536 4704 4872 5040 5208 5376 5544 5712 5880 6048 6216 6384 6552 6720


                                                                                                                        3-rd floor PACUtime, hrs week 11
                                                                                                                                        census,

  14
                                                                             Example of week 11 census (from 7:30 am to 11:30 pm)
  12
  10                  Mon                                                    Tue            Wed              Thu               Fri
      8
cns




      6
      4
      2
      0
          1856 1858 1860 1862 1864 1866 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968

                                                                                                                                                 time, hrs
                                                                                          Time of day                                                                                                                                                                                             23
Step 2
For each staffing time slot (for every hour from 7:30 a.m. to 11:30 p.m.) and for
each possible number of nurses from the nursing pool (from 1 to 14) calculate:
     • Percent of covered patients (with the patient-to-nurse ratio 1:1).
                                            and
     • Percent of time these nurses are utilized.
     • The optimal number of nurses corresponds to the combined maximum.


Note:
National standard (American Society of Perianesthesia Nursing) requires that minimum
two nurses be present at all times when a patient (even only one) is in the PACU.
Therefore if the mathematically optimal number of nurses dropped down to one it should
be kept equal to two to comply with the national standard.



                                                                                         24
Example of Hourly PACU Census Variability
                                                          Staffing time slot (every hour)
          Time of
            day
Day of   (decimal
week       units)   7:30-8:30   8:30-9:30   9:30-10:30   10:30-11:30   11:30-12:30   12:30-13:30   13:30-14:30   14:30-15:30
  1       9.06667                   1
  1       9.31667                   2
  1       9.41667                   3
  1         9.85                                2
  1       10.0333                               1
  1       10.0667                               2
  1         10.6                                              3
  1       10.6667                                             4
  1       10.8333                                             3
  1       10.8667                                             2
  1       11.2833                                             3
  1       11.6667                                                           2
  1        11.85                                                            1
  1       11.9167                                                           0
  1       12.0333                                                           1
  1       12.3667                                                           2
  1         12.4                                                            3
  1       12.6167                                                                           2
  1         13.2                                                                            3
  1        13.25                                                                            2
  1       13.8667                                                                                      1
  1       13.8667                                                                                      2
  1          14                                                                                        1
  1          14                                                                                        2
  1       14.5833                                                                                                    1
  1       14.5833                                                                                                    2
  1        14.75                                                                                                     3
  1        14.85                                                                                                     4
  1          15                                                                                                      3
  1       15.1167                                                                                                    4
  1         15.4                                                                                                     3

                                                                                                                               25
Example of Calculated Optimal Staffing (1 hour slot)
                                                                                                                        % of
                                                                                              daily time    optimal #   covered
    The optimal daily number of nurses for each 1-hour staffing time slot                     slot          of nurses   patients
                    9                                                                         7:30-8:30         2          96
                    8                                                                         8:30-9:30         4          100
                    7                                                                         9:30-10:30        5          98
  mber of nurses




                    6                                                                         10:30-11:30       5          96
                    5                                                                         11:30-12:30       7          99

                    4                                                                         12:30-13:30       6          93
num




                    3                                                                         13:30-14:30       6          99

                    2                                                                         14:30-15:30       8          99
                                                                                              15:30-16:30       6          95
                    1
                                                                                              16:30-17:30       5          99
                    0
                           0  0   0   0   0   0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0 0   17:30-18:30       4          95
                         :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :0
                       -8 0-9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24
                     30 3     0   0   0   0 0     0   0     0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0     18:30-19:30       3          96
                   7: 8: 9:3 0:3 1:3 2:3 3:3 4:3 5:3 6:3 7:3 8:3 9:3 0:3 1:3 2:3 3:3
                                1   1   1   1   1   1   1     1   1   1   2   2   2   2       19:30-20:30       4          100
                                                    daily time slot
                                                                                              20:30-21:30       3          100
                                                                                              21:30-22:30       2          94
                                                                                              22:30-23:30       2          100
                                                                                              23:30-24:00       2          100


                                                                                                                                   26
Comparison of Current and Optimal Staffing (30 minute slot)

                                                                 Current vs. Optimal Staffing
                                                                 Current vs. optimal staffing
                                                                                                                                                                           staffing
                  14                                                                                                                                                       type
                  13                                                                                                                 Current staffing                      current
                  12
                        Current staffing                                                                                              is too low                           optimal
                        is excessive
                  11
                  10
           mber




                  9
staffing num




                  8
                  7
                  6
                  5
                  4
                  3
                  2
                  1
                  0
                             0   0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0   0   0   0   0   0    0     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   0   0   0   0  0
                          8 0 8 3 9 0 9 3 0 0 0 3 1 0 13 20 23 30 33 40 43 5 0 5 3 6 0 6 3 7 0 7 3 8 0 8 3 9 0 93 00 03 10 13 20 23 3 0
                       - 0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1 0- 1 0- 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-2
                     30 0       3    0    3    0    3    0    3    0    3   0   3   0   3   0   3    0     3    0    3    0    3    0    3    0    3   0   3   0   3
                  0 7 0 8 0 8 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2
                                                                                                                                                                                      27
Example of a more detailed staffing plan adjusted for
    seasonal variability and different days of week (2 hours slot)
Monday        Jan-May     June-Aug     Sep-Dec
8.-10             3           3             3
10.-12            5           7             5
12.-14            6           7             6
14.-16            7           6             5
16-18             4           6             6
18-20             2           3             5
20-22             2           2             2
22-22:30          2           2             2

Tue-Thu
7:30-9:30          5            4             5
9:30-11:30         7            7             6
11:30-13:30        7            7             8
13:30-15:30        11           7             7
15:30-17:30        6            9             7
17:30-19:30        3            4             4
19:30-21:30        2            2             2
21:30-23:30        2            2             2

Friday
7:30-9:30          4            6             7
9:30-11:30         8            8             7
11:30-13:30        7            9            10
13:30-15:30        6            8             7
15:30-17:30        6            6            10
17:30-19:30        3            7             5
19:30-21:30        2            2             2
21:30-23:30        2            2             2                      28
Optimal Staffing Versus Currently Used


Before implementing PACU optimal staffing plan in 2009 additional
nursing cost was:


       Overtime                        $ 5,430

       Extended shift coverage         $15,141

       Total                           $20,571

Implementing optimal staffing plan will result in 80% annual nursing
cost saving, i.e. $16,457



                                                                       29
Conclusions

• The optimal staffing nursing plan development based on management
  engineering methodology helps managers to take the guesswork out of
  their daily decision-making.
• The optimal staffing provides the trade-off between the percent of
  covered patients for the required nurse-to-patient ratio (this improves the
  quality of care) and nursing staff utilization (this reduces the cost of
  doing business.)
• The optimal staffing plan allowed PACU managers making adjustments
  to the start times, shift length, and the number of required FTEs.
• This allowed, in turn, placing the correct number of nurses in the PACU
  when they are needed, i.e. placing the right amount of resources in the
  right place at the right time.
• This methodology and the PACU staffing plans are currently being
  implemented for planning surgical services at Children’s Hospital of
  Wisconsin.


                                                                                30
Main Take-Away

Management Engineering and System Simulation Modeling is the only
methodology that helps to quantitatively address the following typical hospital
issues:
Given the variable patient volume:
 • How many beds are needed for each unit?
 • How many procedure rooms are needed for each service?
 • How many nurses/physicians should each unit schedule for the particular shift?
 • What will patient wait time be and how to reduce it to the acceptable level?
 • What will an efficient clinic’s schedule look like?
                                   And so on, and so on…

 And the Ultimate Goal
 How to manage hospital operations to increase profitability (reduce costs, increase revenue)
 while keeping high quality, safety and outcomes standards for patients?



                                                                                                31
Summary of Some Fundamental
                       Management Engineering Principles

• Systems behave differently than a combination of their independent
  components.
• All other factors being equal, combined resources are more efficient
  than specialized (dedicated) resources with the same total
  capacity/workload.
• Scheduling appointments (jobs) in the order of their increased
  duration variability (from lower to higher variability) results in a lower
  overall cycle time and waiting time.
• Size matters. Large units with the same arrival rate (relative to its
  size) always have a significantly lower waiting time. Large units can
  also function at a much higher utilization % level than small units with
  about the same patient waiting time.
• Work load leveling (smoothing) is an effective strategy to reduce
  waiting time and improve patient flow.

                                                                               32
Summary of Some Fundamental Management
                    Engineering Principles – continued

• Because of the variability of patient arrivals and service time, a
  reserved capacity (sometimes up to 30%) is usually needed to
  avoid regular operational problems due to unavailable
  beds/resources.

• Generally, the higher utilization level of the resource (good for the
  organization) the longer is the waiting time to get this resource
  (bad for patient). Utilization level higher than 80% to 85% results
  in a significant increase in waiting time for random patient arrivals
  and random service time.

• In a series of dependent activities only a bottleneck defines the
  throughput of the entire system. A bottleneck is a resource (or
  activity) whose capacity is less than or equal to demand placed
  on it.


                                                                          33
Summary of Some Fundamental Management
                Engineering Principles – continued


• An appointment backlog can remain stable even if the
  average appointment demand is less than appointment
  capacity.

• The time of peak congestion usually lags the time of the
  peak arrival rate because it takes time to serve patients
  from the previous time periods (service inertia.)

• Reduction of process variability is the key to patient flow
  improvement, increasing throughput and reducing delays.




                                                                34
APPENDIX




           35
What is a Simulation Model?
 A Simulation Model is the computer model that mimics the behavior of a
 real complex system as it evolves over the time in order to visualize and
 quantitatively analyze its performance in terms of:
     •   Cycle times.
     •   Wait times.
     •   Value added time.
     •   Throughput capacity.
     •   Resources utilization.
     •   Activities utilization.
     •   Any other custom collected process information.

• The Simulation Model is a tool to perform ‘what-if’ analysis and play
  different scenarios of the model behavior as conditions and process
  parameters change.
• This allows one to build various experiments on the computer model
  and test the effectiveness of various solutions (changes) before
  implementing the change.
How Does a Typical Simulation Model Work?
A simulation model tracks the move of entities through the system at distinct points of time
(thus, discrete events.) The detailed track is recorded of all processing times and waiting
times. In the end, the system’s statistics for entities and activities is gathered.

  Example of Manual Simulation (step by step)
  Let’s consider a very simple system that consists of:
       • A single patient arrival line.
       • A single server.
  Suppose that patient inter-arrival time is uniformly (equally likely) distributed between 1
  minute and 3 minutes. Service time is exponentially distributed with the average 2.5
  minutes. (Of course, any statistical distributions or non-random patterns can be used
  instead.)
  A few random numbers sampled from these two distributions are, for example:
  Inter-arrival time, minutes                                     Service time, minutes
             2.6                                                  1.4
             2.2                                                  8.8
             1.4                                                  9.1
             2.4                                                  1.8
             ….                                                   ….
             and so on…                                                     and so on….
                                                                                                37
We will be tracking any change (or event) that happened in
                          the system. A summary of what is happening in the system
                          looks like this:

 Event #      Time     Event that happened in the system
    1          2.6     First customer arrives. Service starts that should end at time = 4.

    2           4      Service ends. Server waits for patient.

    3          4.8     Second patient arrives. Service starts that should end at time = 13.6.
                       Server idle 0.8 minutes.
    4          6.2     Third patient arrives. Joins the queue waiting for service.

    5          8.6     Fourth patient arrives. Joins the queue waiting for service.

    6         13.6     Second patient (from event 3) service ends. Third patient at the head of
                       the queue (first in, first out) starts service that should end at time 22.7.
    7         22.7     Patient #4 starts service…and so on.

        In this particular example, we were tracking events at discrete points in time
                               t = 2.6, 4.0, 4.8, 6.2, 8.6, 13.6, 22.7

DES models are capable of tracking hundreds of individual entities, each with its own unique set of
attributes, enabling one to simulate the most complex systems with interacting events and component
interdependencies.
                                                                                                      38
Basic Elements of a Simulation Model

• Flow chart of the process: Diagram that depicts logical flow of a process from
  its inception to its completion.
• Entities: Items to be processed (i.e. patients, documents, customers, etc.)

• Activities: Tasks performed on entities (i.e. medical procedures, document
  approval, customer checkout, etc.)
• Resources: Agents used to perform activities and move entities (i.e. service
  personnel, operators, equipment, nurses, physicians.)

Connections
    • Entity arrivals: They define process entry points, time and quantities of the
      entities that enter the system to begin processing.
    • Entity routings: They define directions and logical condition flows for
      entities (i.e. percent routing, conditional routing, routing on demand, etc.)


                                                                                      39
Typical Data Inputs Required to Feed the Model

• Entities, their quantities and arrival times
  Periodic, random, scheduled, daily pattern, etc.
• Time the entities spend in the activities
  This is usually not a fixed time but a statistical distribution. The wider the time
  distribution, the higher the variability of the system behavior.

• The capacity of each activity
  The maximum number of entities that can be processed concurrently in the activity.

• The size of input and output queues for the activities (if needed.)

• The routing type or the logical conditions for a specific routing.

• Resource Assignments
  The number of resources, their availability, and/or resources shift schedule.


                                                                                        40

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WCQI 2010 Presentation

  • 1. PACU Nursing Staffing: Optimizing Quality and Cost 2010 World Conference on Quality and Improvement May 25, 2010 Alexander Kolker, PhD Outcomes Department Children’s Hospital and Health System, Milwaukee, WI Project Team Brett Norell, MHA/MPH; Mary O’Connor, RN, MSN, MBA Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin, Surgical Services 1
  • 2. Outline • The use of Management Engineering methodology for staffing decision-making. • Case Study 1 - Quality and Cost: Outpatient Flu Clinic. • Case Study 2 - Quality and Cost : Optimal PACU Nursing Staffing. • Overall Take-Away. • Summary of Fundamental Management Engineering Principles. 2
  • 3. Some Definitions What is Management? Management is controlling and leveraging available resources (material, financial and human) aimed at achieving the performance objectives. Traditional (Intuitive) Management is based on • Past experience. • Intuition or educated guess. • Static pictures or simple linear projections. Linear projection assumes that the output is directly proportional to the input, i.e. the more resources (material and human) thrown in, the more output produced (and vice versa.) System output Resource input 3
  • 4. What is Management Engineering? • Management Engineering (ME) is the discipline of building and using validated mathematical models of real systems to study their behavior aimed at making justified business decisions. • This field is also known as operations research. Thus, Management Engineering is the application of mathematical methods to system analysis and decision-making 4
  • 5. Case Study 1 Quality and Cost: Outpatient Flu Clinic 5
  • 6. Problem Description An outpatient flu clinic is supposed to open during a flu season to provide H1N1 flu vaccine shots on a walk-in basis. The clinic stays open from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. It is expected that on an average day patient arrival rate will be: • from 8:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. - about 9 patients per hour • from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. - about 15 patients per hour • from 2:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. - about 9 patients per hour • from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. - about 12 patients per hour Key point: the average patient arrival rate is highly variable during a typical day. • Giving a shot will take on average about 8 minutes but could be in the range from 6 minutes to 10 minutes. • Flu shot costs a patient $20; the clinic’s cost of one vaccine dose and supplies is $1. Staffing pay rate is $14/hour. 6
  • 7. The Goal Clinic’s management should decide: • How many medical providers are needed to staff the clinic on a typical day? • What will the projected net revenue be (on a daily basis)? 7
  • 8. Traditional Management Approach • Projected total average number of patients for a typical day is 120 (=9*2+15*4+9*2+12*2). • One provider is going to serve on average 60 minutes/8 minutes = 7.5 patients/hour. • Hence 120/7.5 =16 hours of staffing time will be needed to serve all patients. • Thus, two medical providers should be scheduled to staff the clinic. • One is scheduled to work 8 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. and another is scheduled to work from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (Lunch and a few short breaks are extra time.) Practically no (or very short) patient waiting time is expected. • An average daily revenue is going to be 120*$20 = $2,400. • Labor cost for two staff team is $14/hour*16 hours = $224. • The total daily vaccine and supplies average costs is $120. • Hence, the average clinic’s daily net revenue is expected to be $2,400 - $224 - $120 = $2,056. 8
  • 9. Management Engineering Approach • Because of inevitable variability of the daily number of patients coming for the shot and the time it takes to give a shot, the actual staffing needs and the actual estimated net revenue will differ significantly from the average values. • On top of that, it is observed that some patients will leave without a shot if their waiting time is longer than 20 minutes. • In order to develop a realistic evaluation of clinic performance, the process variability and patients leaving without a shot should be taken into account. • It is possible only using simulation analysis of clinic’s operations. 9
  • 10. Management Engineering Approach Flu clinic simulation model layout Resources: RN1, RN2 and part time RN3 10
  • 11. Management Engineering Approach Scenario 1 - Baseline One provider works 8 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Another provider works 8 hours from 10:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. • Predicted Clinic’s Performance Results 95% percent Confidence Interval for the number of served patients: 93 to 94 (much lower than anticipated 120 patients !!!) Because of waiting longer than 20 minutes, 19 to 20 patients (16% to 17%) will leave without a shot. Total daily clinic net revenue is going to be $1,163 (much lower than expected $2,056 based on averages) • Next step Does it make sense to extend staff working hours to increase net revenue and reduce the number of leaving patients? Note From a traditional management standpoint this is not needed because 16 hours of working time on average is enough to meet the average patient demand for service time. Therefore extended hours would result in staff under-utilization. 11
  • 12. Management Engineering Approach Scenario 2 Both providers work 10 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (total 20 hours of work time) • Predicted Clinic’s Performance Results The number of served patients: 113. Because of waiting longer than 20 minutes, only 2 to 3 patients will leave without a shot. Total daily clinic net revenue is going to be $1,822 (much better than the baseline value $1,163 but still lower than the expected based on averages.) • Take-away Extended staffing work hours results in additional operational and staffing costs; however, this costs is well offset by a higher clinic revenue because more paying patients will be served. Management Question Is it possible to improve the clinic’s performance if a third provider is added on a part-time basis (in addition to two full time extended hours’ staff)? 12
  • 13. Management Engineering Approach Scenario 3 Two staff work 10 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (total 20 hours of work time) Additional provider works part-time in the morning from 8:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. (0.6 FTE) • Predicted Clinic’s Performance Results The number of served patients: 113 to 114. Because of waiting longer than 20 minutes, only 1 to 2 patients will leave without a shot. Total daily clinic’s net revenue is going to be $1,786 which is less than that in Scenario 2. • Take-away Placing third provider in the morning shift does not result in improving clinic’s performance. Gain from serving only a few more patients does not offset the cost of keeping additional staff. Management Question How is the performance affected if a third part-time staff is placed in the afternoon from 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.? 13
  • 14. Management Engineering Approach Scenario 4 Two providers work 10 hours from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. (total 20 hours of work time.) Additional provider works part-time in the afternoon shift from 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. • Predicted Clinic’s Performance Results The number of served patients: 117-118. NO patients will leave because of waiting longer than 20 minutes. Total daily clinic net revenue is going to be $1,871 which is better than for all previous scenarios. • Take-away The third provider placed in the right shift does help to serve more patients and increase profitability despite the higher costs of keeping one more additional individual. 14
  • 15. Summary of the Analyzed Scenarios Number of Left # Operations Description served without Daily net NOTE Scenario patients shot revenue (95% CI) (95% CI) 1 Baseline 2 providers: 8:00 a.m. – 120 0 $2,056 Projected data are based on 4:00 p.m. shift and 10:00 the average service time and a.m. to 6:00 p.m. shift the average number of patients 93 – 94 19 – 20 $1,163 Data are based on the variable service time and the variable number of patients 2 Extended 2 providers: 8:00 a.m. to 113 – 114 2–3 $1,822 Additional staffing cost is offset shift 6:00 p.m. shift for both by revenue from serving more patients 3 Extended 2 providers: 8:00 a.m. to 113 – 114 1–2 $1,786 Additional staffing cost is NOT shift with 6:00 p.m. shift for both; offset by revenue from serving additional 0.6 additional 0.6 FTE from a few more patients FTE in the 8:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. morning 4 Extended 2 providers: 8:00 a.m. to 117 – 118 0 $1,871 Additional staffing cost is offset shift with 6:00 p.m. shift for both; by revenue from serving more additional 0.6 additional 0.6 FTE from patients FTE in the 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. afternoon 15
  • 16. Management Engineering Approach CONCLUSIONS • Many other scenarios of staffing shifts and clinic’s operation modes are possible to analyze using a simulation model. • This example provides illustration of the flaw of averages in traditional managerial decision-making. • Thus, in contrast to traditional ‘pen and paper’ guesswork managerial approach, management engineering simulation methodology allows predicting process performance outcomes and, thus, making truly efficient managerial decisions. Note Many other illustrations of fundamental deficiency of managerial decisions based on average input data without taking into account inevitable process and data variability are provided, for example, in: Savage, S., 2009. The Flaw of Averages. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Hoboken, New Jersey, pp. 392. Kolker, A., 2009. Queuing Theory and Discrete Events Simulation for Health Care: from basic processes to complex systems with interdependencies. Chapter 20. In: Handbook of Research on Discrete Event Simulation. Technologies and Applications. IGI-press Global, pp.443-483. 16
  • 17. Case Study 2 Quality and Cost: Optimal PACU Nursing Staffing 17
  • 18. Problem Description • PACU nursing daily workload is highly variable because patient census often changes fast from 0 to the peak value within an hour or two. • The required adequate number of nurses to care for the volume of patients entering the PACU from the OR is not known. • The anesthesiologist and the OR nurse are required to take care of the patient until a PACU nurse becomes available. This in turn results in: Delays in OR because anesthesiologist and OR nurse are not available. Frustration among OR staff and surgeons due to delay of cases. A sense of urgency among PACU staff to ‘hurry’ with the current patient, so they could take another waiting patient. This pressure greatly increased the risk of medical errors because the nurses are rushed. • Managers should manually reset the staffing (up or down) within a few hours of staffing periods trying to keep the required nurse-to-patient ratio (in acute care it is 1:1). 18
  • 19. The Goal Develop a methodology for calculating an optimal PACU nursing staffing plan that provides simultaneous maximizing of: • The percent of patients cared for with the required nurse-to-patient ratio 1:1 (improving quality of care). and • Staff utilization (decreasing the cost of overtime and the cost of extended shift coverage). 19
  • 20. Traditional Management • PACU managers typically adjusted nursing staffing needs manually based on the past historical average number of patients. • Because of high variability of the actual number of patients around the average, the resulting staffing usually either is not enough to deliver proper quality of care or it is not cost-effective. 20
  • 21. Typical plot of the PACU daily average number of patients (on annual basis) 16 Staff on this level ? 14 12 10 Patients 8 or Staff on these levels ? 6 4 2 4 0 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 30 00 MEAN 0 0.4 1.6 2.9 4.2 5.3 5.7 6 6.2 6.2 6 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 6.2 4.4 3.9 3.4 3 2.3 2 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 MIN 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MAX 1 3 7 9 10 11 11 15 13 12 12 12 11 13 12 11 13 12 13 11 11 9 11 9 6 5 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 MEDIAN 0 0 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 MODE 0 0 1 3 5 6 6 6 6 7 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 7 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Time 21
  • 22. Management Engineering Approach Step 1 Layout of the simulation model for calculating PACU census at every moment in which it is changed based on the balance of admissions and discharges. Census (i) (current period) = census (i-1) (previous period) + [# admissions (i) – # discharges (i) ]; i = 1, 2, 3, ……. 22
  • 23. census PACU Calculated census for 40 weeks 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 cns 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 168 336 504 672 840 1008 1176 1344 1512 1680 1848 2016 2184 2352 2520 2688 2856 3024 3192 3360 3528 3696 3864 4032 4200 4368 4536 4704 4872 5040 5208 5376 5544 5712 5880 6048 6216 6384 6552 6720 3-rd floor PACUtime, hrs week 11 census, 14 Example of week 11 census (from 7:30 am to 11:30 pm) 12 10 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri 8 cns 6 4 2 0 1856 1858 1860 1862 1864 1866 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 time, hrs Time of day 23
  • 24. Step 2 For each staffing time slot (for every hour from 7:30 a.m. to 11:30 p.m.) and for each possible number of nurses from the nursing pool (from 1 to 14) calculate: • Percent of covered patients (with the patient-to-nurse ratio 1:1). and • Percent of time these nurses are utilized. • The optimal number of nurses corresponds to the combined maximum. Note: National standard (American Society of Perianesthesia Nursing) requires that minimum two nurses be present at all times when a patient (even only one) is in the PACU. Therefore if the mathematically optimal number of nurses dropped down to one it should be kept equal to two to comply with the national standard. 24
  • 25. Example of Hourly PACU Census Variability Staffing time slot (every hour) Time of day Day of (decimal week units) 7:30-8:30 8:30-9:30 9:30-10:30 10:30-11:30 11:30-12:30 12:30-13:30 13:30-14:30 14:30-15:30 1 9.06667 1 1 9.31667 2 1 9.41667 3 1 9.85 2 1 10.0333 1 1 10.0667 2 1 10.6 3 1 10.6667 4 1 10.8333 3 1 10.8667 2 1 11.2833 3 1 11.6667 2 1 11.85 1 1 11.9167 0 1 12.0333 1 1 12.3667 2 1 12.4 3 1 12.6167 2 1 13.2 3 1 13.25 2 1 13.8667 1 1 13.8667 2 1 14 1 1 14 2 1 14.5833 1 1 14.5833 2 1 14.75 3 1 14.85 4 1 15 3 1 15.1167 4 1 15.4 3 25
  • 26. Example of Calculated Optimal Staffing (1 hour slot) % of daily time optimal # covered The optimal daily number of nurses for each 1-hour staffing time slot slot of nurses patients 9 7:30-8:30 2 96 8 8:30-9:30 4 100 7 9:30-10:30 5 98 mber of nurses 6 10:30-11:30 5 96 5 11:30-12:30 7 99 4 12:30-13:30 6 93 num 3 13:30-14:30 6 99 2 14:30-15:30 8 99 15:30-16:30 6 95 1 16:30-17:30 5 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17:30-18:30 4 95 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :3 :0 -8 0-9 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -22 -23 -24 30 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18:30-19:30 3 96 7: 8: 9:3 0:3 1:3 2:3 3:3 4:3 5:3 6:3 7:3 8:3 9:3 0:3 1:3 2:3 3:3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 19:30-20:30 4 100 daily time slot 20:30-21:30 3 100 21:30-22:30 2 94 22:30-23:30 2 100 23:30-24:00 2 100 26
  • 27. Comparison of Current and Optimal Staffing (30 minute slot) Current vs. Optimal Staffing Current vs. optimal staffing staffing 14 type 13 Current staffing current 12 Current staffing is too low optimal is excessive 11 10 mber 9 staffing num 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 8 3 9 0 9 3 0 0 0 3 1 0 13 20 23 30 33 40 43 5 0 5 3 6 0 6 3 7 0 7 3 8 0 8 3 9 0 93 00 03 10 13 20 23 3 0 - 0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1 0- 1 0- 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 0-2 30 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 7 0 8 0 8 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 1 3 1 3 1 4 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 1 7 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 27
  • 28. Example of a more detailed staffing plan adjusted for seasonal variability and different days of week (2 hours slot) Monday Jan-May June-Aug Sep-Dec 8.-10 3 3 3 10.-12 5 7 5 12.-14 6 7 6 14.-16 7 6 5 16-18 4 6 6 18-20 2 3 5 20-22 2 2 2 22-22:30 2 2 2 Tue-Thu 7:30-9:30 5 4 5 9:30-11:30 7 7 6 11:30-13:30 7 7 8 13:30-15:30 11 7 7 15:30-17:30 6 9 7 17:30-19:30 3 4 4 19:30-21:30 2 2 2 21:30-23:30 2 2 2 Friday 7:30-9:30 4 6 7 9:30-11:30 8 8 7 11:30-13:30 7 9 10 13:30-15:30 6 8 7 15:30-17:30 6 6 10 17:30-19:30 3 7 5 19:30-21:30 2 2 2 21:30-23:30 2 2 2 28
  • 29. Optimal Staffing Versus Currently Used Before implementing PACU optimal staffing plan in 2009 additional nursing cost was: Overtime $ 5,430 Extended shift coverage $15,141 Total $20,571 Implementing optimal staffing plan will result in 80% annual nursing cost saving, i.e. $16,457 29
  • 30. Conclusions • The optimal staffing nursing plan development based on management engineering methodology helps managers to take the guesswork out of their daily decision-making. • The optimal staffing provides the trade-off between the percent of covered patients for the required nurse-to-patient ratio (this improves the quality of care) and nursing staff utilization (this reduces the cost of doing business.) • The optimal staffing plan allowed PACU managers making adjustments to the start times, shift length, and the number of required FTEs. • This allowed, in turn, placing the correct number of nurses in the PACU when they are needed, i.e. placing the right amount of resources in the right place at the right time. • This methodology and the PACU staffing plans are currently being implemented for planning surgical services at Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin. 30
  • 31. Main Take-Away Management Engineering and System Simulation Modeling is the only methodology that helps to quantitatively address the following typical hospital issues: Given the variable patient volume: • How many beds are needed for each unit? • How many procedure rooms are needed for each service? • How many nurses/physicians should each unit schedule for the particular shift? • What will patient wait time be and how to reduce it to the acceptable level? • What will an efficient clinic’s schedule look like? And so on, and so on… And the Ultimate Goal How to manage hospital operations to increase profitability (reduce costs, increase revenue) while keeping high quality, safety and outcomes standards for patients? 31
  • 32. Summary of Some Fundamental Management Engineering Principles • Systems behave differently than a combination of their independent components. • All other factors being equal, combined resources are more efficient than specialized (dedicated) resources with the same total capacity/workload. • Scheduling appointments (jobs) in the order of their increased duration variability (from lower to higher variability) results in a lower overall cycle time and waiting time. • Size matters. Large units with the same arrival rate (relative to its size) always have a significantly lower waiting time. Large units can also function at a much higher utilization % level than small units with about the same patient waiting time. • Work load leveling (smoothing) is an effective strategy to reduce waiting time and improve patient flow. 32
  • 33. Summary of Some Fundamental Management Engineering Principles – continued • Because of the variability of patient arrivals and service time, a reserved capacity (sometimes up to 30%) is usually needed to avoid regular operational problems due to unavailable beds/resources. • Generally, the higher utilization level of the resource (good for the organization) the longer is the waiting time to get this resource (bad for patient). Utilization level higher than 80% to 85% results in a significant increase in waiting time for random patient arrivals and random service time. • In a series of dependent activities only a bottleneck defines the throughput of the entire system. A bottleneck is a resource (or activity) whose capacity is less than or equal to demand placed on it. 33
  • 34. Summary of Some Fundamental Management Engineering Principles – continued • An appointment backlog can remain stable even if the average appointment demand is less than appointment capacity. • The time of peak congestion usually lags the time of the peak arrival rate because it takes time to serve patients from the previous time periods (service inertia.) • Reduction of process variability is the key to patient flow improvement, increasing throughput and reducing delays. 34
  • 35. APPENDIX 35
  • 36. What is a Simulation Model? A Simulation Model is the computer model that mimics the behavior of a real complex system as it evolves over the time in order to visualize and quantitatively analyze its performance in terms of: • Cycle times. • Wait times. • Value added time. • Throughput capacity. • Resources utilization. • Activities utilization. • Any other custom collected process information. • The Simulation Model is a tool to perform ‘what-if’ analysis and play different scenarios of the model behavior as conditions and process parameters change. • This allows one to build various experiments on the computer model and test the effectiveness of various solutions (changes) before implementing the change.
  • 37. How Does a Typical Simulation Model Work? A simulation model tracks the move of entities through the system at distinct points of time (thus, discrete events.) The detailed track is recorded of all processing times and waiting times. In the end, the system’s statistics for entities and activities is gathered. Example of Manual Simulation (step by step) Let’s consider a very simple system that consists of: • A single patient arrival line. • A single server. Suppose that patient inter-arrival time is uniformly (equally likely) distributed between 1 minute and 3 minutes. Service time is exponentially distributed with the average 2.5 minutes. (Of course, any statistical distributions or non-random patterns can be used instead.) A few random numbers sampled from these two distributions are, for example: Inter-arrival time, minutes Service time, minutes 2.6 1.4 2.2 8.8 1.4 9.1 2.4 1.8 …. …. and so on… and so on…. 37
  • 38. We will be tracking any change (or event) that happened in the system. A summary of what is happening in the system looks like this: Event # Time Event that happened in the system 1 2.6 First customer arrives. Service starts that should end at time = 4. 2 4 Service ends. Server waits for patient. 3 4.8 Second patient arrives. Service starts that should end at time = 13.6. Server idle 0.8 minutes. 4 6.2 Third patient arrives. Joins the queue waiting for service. 5 8.6 Fourth patient arrives. Joins the queue waiting for service. 6 13.6 Second patient (from event 3) service ends. Third patient at the head of the queue (first in, first out) starts service that should end at time 22.7. 7 22.7 Patient #4 starts service…and so on. In this particular example, we were tracking events at discrete points in time t = 2.6, 4.0, 4.8, 6.2, 8.6, 13.6, 22.7 DES models are capable of tracking hundreds of individual entities, each with its own unique set of attributes, enabling one to simulate the most complex systems with interacting events and component interdependencies. 38
  • 39. Basic Elements of a Simulation Model • Flow chart of the process: Diagram that depicts logical flow of a process from its inception to its completion. • Entities: Items to be processed (i.e. patients, documents, customers, etc.) • Activities: Tasks performed on entities (i.e. medical procedures, document approval, customer checkout, etc.) • Resources: Agents used to perform activities and move entities (i.e. service personnel, operators, equipment, nurses, physicians.) Connections • Entity arrivals: They define process entry points, time and quantities of the entities that enter the system to begin processing. • Entity routings: They define directions and logical condition flows for entities (i.e. percent routing, conditional routing, routing on demand, etc.) 39
  • 40. Typical Data Inputs Required to Feed the Model • Entities, their quantities and arrival times Periodic, random, scheduled, daily pattern, etc. • Time the entities spend in the activities This is usually not a fixed time but a statistical distribution. The wider the time distribution, the higher the variability of the system behavior. • The capacity of each activity The maximum number of entities that can be processed concurrently in the activity. • The size of input and output queues for the activities (if needed.) • The routing type or the logical conditions for a specific routing. • Resource Assignments The number of resources, their availability, and/or resources shift schedule. 40