Landscape Approaches to Future Forest and Tree Resources Management IUFRO-FORNESSA Meeting, Nairobi, June 2012

1. Landscape Approaches to Future Forest
and Tree Resources Management
IUFRO-FORNESSA Meeting, Nairobi, June 2012
Tony Simons, Director General, ICRAF
With contributions from:
Meine van Noordwijk, Peter Minang, Valentina Robiglio,
Keith Shepherd, Anja Gassner and Ravi Prabhu
Photo: INBAR China

2. Abdou Salam Ouedraogo
1957 - 2000

3. Landscape Approaches with Forest and Trees
1. What is a landscape?
2. A Portrait of Forests and Trees
3. What problems are we tackling?
4. Landscape Approaches

4. 1. What is a Landscape?
Landscape comprises the visible features of an
area of land, including:
• physical elements of landforms such as
mountains, water bodies, vegetation
• human elements including different forms of
land use, buildings and structures, and
• transitory elements such as lighting and
weather conditions.
(from Wikipedia, 2012)

5. 1. What is a Landscape? (cont.)
5th Century - landscaef (England) & landscahft (Germany)
- small administrative units of land (natural and human made)
16th Century - Dutch painter’s term (Bruegel)
- bird’s eye viewpoint of Flemish countryside
1930s - domain of geography, subset of region (Hartshorne)
1970s - transition of natural to human landscapes
- Meinig combined the physical and human perceptions
"landscapes are not only what lies before our eyes
but what lies within our heads."

6. 1. Recent political exposure
0 Rio - 20 (Stockholm , Earth Summit, 1972)
(1) Rio (Rio de Janiero, UNCED, 1992)
0 MDGs (New York, UN General Assembly, 2000)
0 Rio +10 (Johannesburg, WSSD, 2002)
0 Rio +20 (Rio de Janiero, UNCSD, 2012)

7. Agriculture - 6 mentions
Forest - 35 mentions
Land Manag/Degrad - 12 mentions

8. Rio Dialogues
10,000 ideas from civil society
Clustered to top 100 actions
1.3 million voted on-line
Take concrete steps to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies
66.1%
Restore 150 million ha of deforested and degraded lands by 2020
34.6%
Secure water supply by protect biod, ecosystems and water sources
34.2%

9. (Landscape)
(Close your eyes)

16. Agroforests
Fields,fallow, forest mosaic
Integrate
deforestation re- and afforestation
Plantations
Fields,
Forests
& Parks
Segregate

17. 2. A Portrait of Forests and Trees

18. Choosing a forest definition
for the CleanCLIMATE CHANGE WORKING PAPER 4 – 2006
FORESTS AND
Development Mechanism
http://www.fao.org/forestry/media/11280/1/0/
For the CDM, developing countries must choose the
parameter values from the ranges: “Forest” is a
minimum area of land of 0.05-1.0 hectares with
tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking level) of
more than 10-30 per cent with trees with the
potential to reach a minimum height of 2-5 meters
at maturity in situ.

19. 50
The relationship between tree crown cover and ability
40 to add extra carbon looks something like this.
Opportunity
for 30
incremental
carbon
(t/ha) 20
10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% tree crown cover

20. Lower and upper limits for
CDM A/R
50
40
National governments can set their
Opportunity forest definition as tree cover
for 30 minimum threshold between
incremental 10% and 30%
carbon
(t/ha) 20
10
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% crown cover

21. AR
at
10%
50
Avoided deforestation at 10%
40
Opportunity
for 30
incremental REDD
carbon
(t/ha) 20 Avoided deforestation at 30%
CDM A/R
10
Aff/Reforestation
at 30%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% crown cover

22. 10% 20%
6700 km2 = 2.8% of land area 36,000 km2 = 14.9% of land area
30%
Implications
of forest
definition 1-
A/R Uganda
Zomer et al. 2008
69,300 km2 = 28.6% of land area

23. Land suitable for CDM Afforestation
according to tree canopy cover as forest definition
% increase Difference
from 10-30% (hectares)
Cote d’Ivoire 1583% 7.7 million
Ghana 1063% 6.8 million
Nigeria 446% 19.5 million

24. Any signs of deforestation?
….are included under forest, as are
areas normally forming part of the
forest area which are temporarily
unstocked as a result of human
intervention such as harvesting or
natural causes but which are expected
to revert to forest;
[FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1]

25. Adams J.M. & Faure H. (1997) (ed.s), QEN members. Review and Atlas of Palaeovegetation: Preliminary land
ecosystem maps of the world since the Last Glacial Maximum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN,

26. Adams J.M. & Faure H. (1997) (ed.s), QEN members. Review and Atlas of Palaeovegetation: Preliminary land
ecosystem maps of the world since the Last Glacial Maximum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN,

27. The foresters’ view of the world

28. The agroforestry view of the world

29. The integrated view of the world
Global tree cover inside and outside forest, according to the Global Land Cover 2000
dataset, the FAO spatial data on farms versus forest, and the analysis by Zomer et al.
(2009)

30. Guiding Paradigms

31. Spatial analysis: classification of 450 districts in Indonesia according to 7
tree cover transition stages (Dewi et al., in prep.)
31

32. Indonesia’s forest loss by land-use category
Forest Use Class % area Loss during 2000-2005
t C ha-1 yr-1 % yr-1 % total
emissions
Protected Forest 26.7% 2.01 0.90% 20%
Production Forest 31.8% 3.28 1.80% 39%
Convertible 9.6% 3.07 1.87% 11%
“Non-forest” 31.9% 2.57 3.33% 30%
TOTAL 2.69 1.70
(Source http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/sea/ALLREDDI)

33. Number of described species for major groups of
organisms as proportions of global total
Nematodes - 0.9% Fungi - 4.2% Algae - 2.4%
Arthropods
64.5%
Protozoans - 2.4% Vertebrates - 2.7%
Molluscs - 4.2% Plants - 14.3%
25% are woody species
Bacteria - 0.2%
Viruses - 0.3% Other invert - 3.9%
Source: I. Koziell (2001) Diversity not Adversity, IIED, 58pp

34. Tree Products and Tree Services
A. Trees for Products
fruit firewood medicine income sawnwood fodder
B. Trees for Services
soil carbon soil watershed shade biodiversity
fertility sequestration erosion protection

39. • Increased production of
timber and fuelwood on-
farm and in rotational wood-
lots can potentially reduce
emissions from forest
degradation especially in
instances of restricted
access to forests or limited
supply in “open access”
forests.

41. Traditional Medicine in Sub-Saharan Africa
80% of people use traditional medicine

42. 3. What problems are we tackling?
Los Angeles Cairo City Developing countries
city commuters populace rural poor/hungry
Differentiated problems? or interlinked global challenges?

43. Temporal Scale
Ecosystem processes
Lifespan timber tree
Lifespan atmosph CO2
Human lifespan
Time to project impact
Political Term
Project duration
Cropping season
0 1 10 100 1000
Log Scale Time (years)

44. Adjudicated Land
Adjudicated
under the Land
Adjudication Act
CAP 284 1968,
intensive
smallholder
cultivation with
clear freehold title

45. Unadjudicated Land
Unadjudicated land,
no firm legal title

47. Economic, Environmental and Social Tenure
Unadjud Freehold
Impacts Effect
Net returns to land ($ ha-1 y-1) $126 $288 2.28
Woody crops, woodlots etc (ha km-2) 5.4 25.6 4.7
Hedgerows (km km-2) 5.2 23.6 4.5
Social cost from embedding -$40 $30 $70
Social "tax" -32% +10%
(Norton-Griffiths et al., 2012)

48. Redirecting development pathways
towards environmental integrity
Positive incentives are needed
to reward rural poor for the
environmental services they
can/do provide

50. The amount of support that govts
will need to provide by the year 2030
to enable farmers to implement
SLM practices are projected at:
US $20 billion in Africa,
US $41 billion in Latin America,
US $131 billion in Asia.
World Bank (2012) World Bank, Washington, 118p.

52. Basic problem
There is a lack of coherent and rigorous
sampling and assessment frameworks
that enable comparison of data (i.e.
meta-studies) across a wide range of
environmental conditions ... and scales
Quantification and systematic monitoring are essential to understand and
manage trade-offs among ecosystem services and know where are the tipping
points

53. Land Health Surveillance
Towards evidence-based decision making
for sustainable agricultural intensification
Vagen
Land Health - the capacity of land to sustain delivery of essential ecosystem
services (the benefits people obtain from ecosystems)
Concepts, methods, technology, protocols, & tools to help apply the
type of scientific rigour that exists in public health surveillance to
measurement and management of agro-ecosystem health at multiple
scales

54. Surveillance science
Land health metrics
Sentinel sites
Randomized sampling schemes
Consistent field
protocol
Coupling with remote
Prevalence, Risk factors, Digital mapping sensing Soil spectroscopy

55. Ethiopia Soil Information System
EthioSIS is adopting a new, innovative
technological approach that allows for
quick, high-resolution coverage of the
country, combining remote sensing data
and ground tests

56. Mapping soil carbon stocks in landscapes
UNEP Carbon
Benefits
Project:
Measurement
tools
Soil organic carbon stocks within a 10 x 10 km sentinel site in western
Kenya mapped by statistical modelling of ground data to satellite
spectral bands
The effect of cloud is masked as no data
5
6

57. 4. Landscape approaches

58. Biomolecules in Green Development
C55H72O5N4Mg
Chlorophyll

59. LANDSCAPE CONCEPT AND LANDSCAPE APPROACH
Production
Ecosystem services Biodiversity
Institutions
Carbon sink and sequestration
Livelihoods strategies
policy System resilience
landscapes as spatially heterogeneous geographic areas characterized by diverse
interacting patches or ecosystems
Landscape approach is necessary to deal at the same time with production,
biodiversity, ecosystem services and functions, livelihoods strategies, policy and
institutions across scales.
The landscape approach is particularly valuable to create an understanding in the
complex (competing) interrelationships between resource use and users across
scales.

60. HUMAN LANDSCAPES
Land units as non-interacting aggregates
Economic or social synergies not accommodated
Social processes across land uses ignored or aggregated
Ghazoul, ISPC Meeting, 2011)

61. REDD+
plus what?
People?
Water?
Biodiversity?
Landscape?

62. The Challenges of REDD
1. Market alone won’t solve deforestation problem
2. Carbon only part of picture (water, habitat, biodiversity, services)
3. MRV needs to be independent of government
4. Handling cross-sectoral/ministerial issues
5. Controversy over rights to pollute, displacement of emissions
6. Opportunism of carbon cowboys
7. Definition and inclusion problems of tree, forest
8. Asynchronous forest laws, agrarian reform, land tenure
9. Land-use/land-cover conundrum
10. Bundling protection forest, production forest, conversion forest, (non-forest)
11. REDD is only partial accounting
12. Low capacity/compliance of fpic, indigenous rights, social safeguards
13. Baselines versus reference levels
14. Emissions embedded in trade
15. Stock:emission rate ratios are lowering (time pressure to act)
16. All actors believe most finance should go to them

63. ACTORS and FINANCING
MAIN ACTORS % Finance
National Governments 90%
Brokers/Investors 90%
MRV, compliance 90%
Implementers, Managers, NGOs 90%
Stewards, communities 90%
TOTAL 450%

64. ACTORS and FINANCING (cont.)
MAIN ACTORS % Finance
National Governments 25%
Brokers/Investors 15%
MRV, compliance 15%
Implementers, Managers, NGOs 20%
Stewards, communities 25%
TOTAL 100%

65. ACTORS and FINANCING (cont.)
MAIN ACTORS % Finance Source of
Finance
National Governments 25% ODA
Brokers/Investors 15% Market
MRV, compliance 15% Market
Implementers, Managers, NGOs 20% Market
Stewards, communities 25% ODA
TOTAL 100%
- 50:50 financed by market and ODA
- MRV independent of Govt
- Govt and communities less vulnerable
- Govts need to function for market to trust them

66. • Agroforestry,
Afforestation and
Reforestation can be
part of REDD+
depending on the
definition of forest in
a given country

68. Ellison D, Futter MN,
% of rainfall derived from ‘short cycle’ Bishop K, 2011.On the
forest cover–water
terrestrial origins(recalculated from Basilovich et al.) yield debate: from
demand- to supply-
37% 58% 30% 68%
side thinking. Global
Change Biology, doi:
10.1111/j.1365-
2486.2011.02589.x
Approximately a
third comes
from ‘local’
42%
sources
40% 22%
41% 46%
1) Mackenzie river basin, 2) Mississippi river basin, 3) Amazon river basin, 4) West Afri-ca, 5)
Baltics, 6) Tibet, 7) Siberia, 8) GAME (GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment) and 9) Huaihe river
basin.

69. Global circulation patterns of humidity in the atmosphere suggsts a
strong link between West Africfan rainfall and the recycling of rain-fall
back to the atmosphere in East Africa & Nile basin; this suggests very
different geopolitics to carbon-based global climate negotiations
van der Ent RJ, Savenije
HHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐
Dunne SC, 2010. Origin
and fate of atmospheric
moisture over
continents. Water
Resources Research 46,
W09525,

70. Dryland agricultural areas where more than 50% of
rainfall is derived from terrestrial recycling
Sahel
Keys PW, van der Ent RJ, Gordon LJ, Hoff H, Nikoli R and Savenije HHG,
2012. Analyzing precipitationsheds to understand the vulnerability of
rainfall dependent regions, Biogeosciences, 9, 733–746

71. Enhanced EL means increased precipitation
250 Ring w idth
Rain season prec.
150
ainy season prec. (m )
m
200 130
ing idth index
150 110
R w
100 90
R
50 70
0 50
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
Empirical data: research by Aster Year
Gebrekirstos c.s. showed intra- Three ‘drought’ indicators:
annual variation in O16/O18 ratio in  Ringwidth
growth  C12/C13 carbon isotope ratiops
rings in the Sa- indicative of stomatal closure
hel, indicative  O16/O18 oxygen isotope ratios
of ‘short cycle’ indicative of stomatal closure +
rain in 2nd part ocean/terrestrial origin of rainfall
of growing sea-
son

73. 100
No. of households facing shortage
Zambia
80
Hungry/cropping Malawi
60 season
40
20 Harvest/off-
season
0
Tree Species Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Avocado
Citrus
Parinari curatellifolia
Mangoes
Uapaca kirkiana
Strychnos cocculoides
Syzygium cordatum
Annona seneghalesis
Azanza garckeana
Flacourtia indica
Vangueria infausta
Vitex doniana
Adansonia digitata
Ziziphus mauritiana

74. New Cultivar Development
(Uapaca kirkiana)
A superior cultivar (fruited after 4 yrs.)
Variations
Earlier fruiting, bigger fruits, heavy fruit
loads, smaller trees and uniform quality

75. Case Study: Cocoa Rehabilitation
Palopo Cocoa Centre, Sulawesi

76. ~40 identified QTLs
1 2 3 cir120 4 5
0.0 cir184 0.0 cir252
0.0
2.1
cir150
cir153
0.0
1.5
cir242
cir234
0.0
0.3
WRKY-10
cir111
in cacao
5.1 cir19 3.8 cir198 3.8 cir241 1.3 cir232
5.4 TIR2 5.1 cir233 2.1 cir119
9.2 cir240 9.6 cir146 5.2 shrs37
11.6 cir161 9.4 Tce195
cir118 16.0 cir3 10.7 cir21 11.2 cir117 7.4 shrs12
15.7 cf974239 20.9 Tce089 10.9 cir192 14.5 cir33 7.6 shrs11
23.4 cir129 11.6 cir62 14.8 cir237 13.5 cir148
shrs21 12.3 cir40 20.6 cir95 18.2 shrs22
23.8 shrs6 13.9 cir247 21.5 cir10
23.3 shrs33 Witches’ Broom
cir143 32.3 ca797995 17.0 cir204 26.2 cir32 26.1 Tce030
28.9 cir159 cir196
37.4 cir268 19.5
21.6
Tce380A
cir180
32.0 cir43 26.8 cir123 Resistance
cir152 34.2 cir12
38.5 shrs13 31.4 cir175 27.7 cir42
39.4 cir102 31.5 cir169
45.0 WRKY-14 39.6 cir280
cir149
Frosty Pod
46.5 cir29 48.5 cir60 40.6 cir289 39.8
51.0 cf972885 50.1 cir139 42.0 cir78 cir213
cir256 Resistance
cir165 45.4 cir263 48.6 40.7 cir170
53.3 cir249 51.3 shrs2 cir206 47.7 shrs19
54.7 shrs3 48.0 cir219
57.7 cir162 63.6 cir254 48.8 cir245 Pod Weight
60.4 cir244 cir69
61.1 shrs23 63.9 cir135 59.4 Tce380 49.1
64.1 cir128 WRKY-11
62.7 cir246 52.3 TIR4
65.8 cir273 66.4 cir140
70.5 cir48 70.1 shrs7 52.6 TIR3 Pod Number
68.4 cir286 63.7 shrs4
69.0 shrs34 70.4 shrs5 67.6 cir87
cir226 73.0 cir80
70.8 cir131 75.3 cir115
80.1 Tce574 85.4 cir230 71.4 cir202 cir109 Trunk Circumference
86.1 cir228 72.1 cir144 84.9 cir101
88.0 WRKY-03 73.0 ca798018 85.3 cir274
87.7 cir275 cir68
89.9 cir264 93.5 cir261
79.5 cir81 9
93.5 cir22 cir73
91.6 ca795469 Jorquette Height
100.5 0.0 cir79
97.0 RGH11 cir269 3.4 cir85 10
cir194
0.0 cir37 Bean Length
4.7 cir223
11.2 RGH7 Pod Number & Wet
6 7 8 24.0 cir64
13.4 RGH8
cir98 Bean Weight
0.0 cir6 0.0 ca972846 24.8 cir283
0.0 cir103
1.5 cir136 1.7 cir186 3.0 cir134 23.3 cir61
5.4 cir277 32.8 cir212
3.2 5.4 cir189 RGH2 Frosty Pod Resistance
10.5 cir53 cir116 36.4 cir58
4.4 cir179 13.5 Tce487 40.6 cir104 & Wet Bean Weight
5.7 cir177 16.8 cir26 45.0 cir8 41.3 cir155
8.0 cir147 47.5 cir178
10.2 cir55 23.0 cir200
32.2 cir71 12.4 cir56 55.2 cir160
34.3 cir276
cir46 58.0 cir157 57.8 cir229 Black Pod
34.7 16.6 cir211 60.5 cir35
37.4 cir25 cir181 33.3 shrs20
22.8 RGH4 35.2 cir225 67.0 cf972909
26.1 RGH5 68.5 cir24
54.3 cir209 33.1 cir13 73.3
74.1
cir251
cir30
Bean Weight, Bean Thickness,
37.4 RGH1 45.1 cir282
57.9 cir9
43.7 cir190
79.5 cir166 Pod Weight & Pod Length
59.9 cir291 51.1 cir1 83.2 cir250
44.1 cir141 86.0 cir126
88.1 cir108 Bean Length, Seed Weight,Ovule
88.6 cir266
94.6 cir72 Number, & Trunk Circumference
cir287
95.4 cir243

78. - Resolution 30m x 30m
- Based on 280 (56 x 5) ground truthed cocoa locations
- Maximum likelihood classifier spectral landcover reflectance probability using ENVI

79. Project Vision for Change (V4C)
First flowers after 5 months
First pod at 9 months

80. Capacity building and mobilisation:
State of our national partners HQ in Abidjan, August 2011

81. A growing on-farm domestic timber sector in
Cameroon (Ghana, Sri Lanka, Kenya????)…
3.0
Millions m3
2.0
1.0
0.0
2000 2005 2010
Official production
SSL informal production
Robiglio, V. et al. 2011. Submitted to
Once SSL production is included the overall Small Scale Forestry .
value of national timber production doubles!
81

83. eastern
western
Fort Tenan

84. Components:
1. Global Review
2. International Forum (March 12-16, 2012)
FFAOFAO
3. Action and Advocacy

85. Sentinel landscapes –CGIAR long-term
research network under CRP6
 To strengthen CGIAR’s impact; in the past
our research activities were not usually
based on a common set of research
instruments, and long term horizon
 Initial selection of 6 landscapes in Africa,
Latin America, South East Asia
 Selection driven by CRP6 research
hypothesis
 Cross regional comparison
 Standard network protocols & data sharing
policies
 Long term presence
 Platform for co-locating research