Presentation Made by CACAARI for GCARD Pre-Conference Inter-Regional Forum Meeting

1. Central Asia and South Caucasus
REGION FORESIGHT
Presentation Made by CACAARI
for GCARD Pre-Conference Inter-
Regional Forum Meeting
Oleg Shatberashvili
Georgian Federation for Information
and Documentation,
Member of CACAARI Steering Council

2. Agricultural and Food
Challenges in CAC Region
• 5 countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) and 3 countries of the South Caucasus
(Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)
• The area exceeding 4 million sq.km (about 3 % of the Earth's dry land)
• Population of about 75 million, more than 40% in rural area
• 70% of poor reside in rural area
• A sharp rise in food prices put at risk part of the population (20-50%,
depending on country)TITLE OF into TOPIC
falling THE the category of the poor
• In 2007-2011 agricultural production in all countries except Georgia
(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural
was growing. However, noresource poor small holder farmersvolume of
Communities especially country has yet reached a )
agricultural production of 1990.
• All countries are net food importers. The deficit compensated through
import is between 70% (Georgia) and 30% (Armenia, Kazakhstan).
• Agricultural future of the countries is both of regional and global
importance

3. Agricultural and Food Challenges
in CAC Region
• Current significant deficiency of locally produced
food
• Climate change, water problems, soil degradation,
deforestation, etc.
• Sudden emergence of large number of smallholders
TITLE OF THE TOPIC
(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural
• Extremely low agricultural GERDholder farmers ) of GDP)
Communities especially resource poor small (0.1 – 0.25
• Weak agriculture advisory services

4. Foresight in Central Asia and the
South Caucasus (1)
• Limited number of research works devoted to the future of
agriculture
• Examples:
– An overview of agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus
and CGIAR program for sustainable development
– Water Quality, Cropping and Small Ruminants: Future
Agriculture in Dry Areas THEUzbekistan
TITLE OF of TOPIC
(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural
– Some aspects of development of grain agriculture of
Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )
Kazakhstan in view of possible climate change
– Research Prospectus: A Vision for Sustainable Land
Management Research in Central Asia
• Limited local ownership

5. Foresight in Central Asia and the
South Caucasus (2)
• Technological Foresight of Kazakh Agro-Industrial Sector’s Priority
Directions Development (2014-2020, 351 pages, in Russian)
• Methodology: desktop review of published and unpublished
sources, brain storming, DELPHY, SWOT-analysis, key technology
TITLE OF THE TOPIC
selection, other.
(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural
• CentreCommunities especially resource poor small holder farmers )
for Economical Policy Analysis of Agro-Industrial Sector of
Kazakhstan
• Authors will be involved in the work of Forward Thinking Platform

6. Foresight and Setting Priorities in
CAC
• Foresights are not conducted in the region on the
regular bases
• A survey of foresight activities in the region and their
TITLE OF THE TOPIC a task for the
influence on priorityActions and Contributions by Rural future
settings is
(example: Biodiversity:
Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

7. Lessons learned
• Foresight with a local ownership should become a
regular part of AR4D activities in the region
• Low level of agricultural GERD may be an obstacle to it
TITLE OF THE TOPIC
(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural
Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )

8. CACAARI Commitments
• The status of foresight in the Region was discussed at
the CACAARI annual meeting
• CACAARI will
 focus attention on the further development of
TITLE OF THE TOPIC
foresight in Biodiversity:resourceand Contributions by Rural )
(example: Actions
the region poor small holder farmers
Communities especially
 take a capacity building measures to insure
promotion of foresight-based research in the region.

9. Thank You
TITLE OF THE TOPIC
(example: Biodiversity: Actions and Contributions by Rural
Communities especially resource poor small holder farmers )