Colliers International Research has just released Global Office Highlights H2 2011 covering all global markets across Asia Pacific, EMEA (Europe Middle East and Africa), Latin America and North America. The biannual report from Colliers International consists of gross and net average rental rates (data as of December 31, 2011) of grade A office space as well as forecast for 2012 onwards. According to Colliers International’s research, global vacancy rates will continue to decrease due to the steady demand and low levels of construction particularly in North America and Europe. Another positive trend in many leading markets is the increased interest in occupiers towards higher quality office space or better locations when renewing their leases.
Colliers Global Office Highlights second half 2011
1. second half 2011 | office
GLOBAL office
HIGHLIGHTS
Global Office Demand Growth
Slow and Steady
JAMES COOK Director of Research | USA
Global Office Trend Forecast
• Global
office vacancies will continue their decline, due to steady demand and low levels of new construction in North
America and Europe.
GLOBAL CAPITALIZATION RATES / • The“flight to quality” trend will continue in many major markets, with occupiers trading up to higher-quality space or a
PRIMe YIELDS: 10 Lowest cities better location as their leases expire.
• TheEuropean sovereign debt crisis will likely push the Eurozone into a mild recession in early 2012. This contraction
CBD CAP RATE (%) will be felt most profoundly in a handful of commercial property markets within the most troubled nations.
MARKET
(Ranked by dec June dec Economic prospects in the Eurozone have slightly reduced overall positive global expectations for market performance in
Dec 2011) 2011 2011 2010 2012. We expect continuing modest demand for office space, with most cities seeing a drop in vacancy rates. But global
Taipei 2.60 2.80 2.90 averages do not speak to the nuances of individual markets, and—while we expect positive absorption due to business
growth and expansion in the United States, China and Australia—some Eurozone countries may see negative absorption
Hong Kong 2.94 3.22 3.31 and increased vacancy as the region enters a mild recession.
Vienna 3.50 3.50 3.50
Latin America Boasts the Tightest Office Markets each has shown apparent decline in rents between June
London – West End 4.00 4.00 4.50 Some of the world’s lowest office vacancy rates are found and December of 2011, when quoted in U.S. dollars.
Zurich 4.10 4.10 4.10 in Latin American cities. Santiago, Chile; Rio de Janeiro, Substantial declines, in fact: led by a $10.87 USD drop in
Brazil; São Paulo, Brazil; and Lima, Peru all have vacancy Parisian Class A rents.
Singapore 4.20 4.30 4.20
rates below three percent, resulting in a market that
Geneva 4.25 4.00 4.00 strongly favors landlords, prompts new construction and But how significant are these figures? The change in
might squeeze some tenants that desire to expand. For the London and Paris rents is due to the strengthening dollar
Beijing 4.32 5.93 6.59 relative to the euro and pound sterling. In local currency,
most part, we expect the strength of these markets to
Paris 4.50 4.50 4.75 persist. While decreases in European demand for its prime rents in these markets are holding ground. Although
Munich 4.50 4.50 4.50 commodities will likely hurt Latin America, this will be smaller, the decline in Hong Kong of $7.56 USD ($5.10 HKD)
tempered by continued demand from China. In São Paolo, per square foot may be a more important indicator of things
Tokyo 4.50 4.60 4.70 to come, as demand from the banking and financial sector
heightened demand has spurred the highest rates of new
development in the region, which will eventually put continue to weaken.
downward pressure on asking rents. EMEA and Asia Pacific Lead Global Construction
GLOBAL OFFICE OCCUPANCY COSTS: A significant percentage of the office space under
TOP 10 CITIES Select Asia Pacific Markets See Big Vacancy Drops
The global trend in dropping vacancy rates should be evi- construction is in Europe, the Middle East and Africa
dent in Asia and continue through 2012. Markets that saw (EMEA), and much of that is occurring in Moscow and
CLASS A / NET RENT (USD/SQ FT) Dubai. While both of these markets should expect strong
a drop in vacancy in the second half of 2011 outnumbered
MARKET by a two-to-one margin those where vacancy increased. economic growth in 2012, the fact that Dubai—with a
(Ranked by dec June dec vacancy rate of 50 percent—is constructing at such a pace
Dec 2011) 2011 2011 2010 Of the world’s most populous markets, those with the most leads us to expect that supply will continue to outpace
significant declines in six-month vacancy rates were nearly demand in that market.
Hong Kong 178.34 185.91 166.62 all in the Asia Pacific region. Chengdu, propelled by its
London – West End 120.31 124.50 108.28 strong manufacturing sector, saw its vacancy rate drop by The other two top markets for office construction are in the
Paris 90.26 101.13 92.31 7.8 percent in the period, and Shanghai saw a 3.2 percent Asia Pacific region. Guangzhou—China’s leading
drop in vacancy. commercial port city—and Tokyo have 19.6 and 15.6 million
Rio de Janeiro 78.98 85.70 79.89 square feet under construction respectively. Asian economic
Two other large Asian markets saw vacancy rates drop by growth rates will remain strong in the coming months, with
Moscow 75.78 64.86 77.54 1.5 percent or more: Jakarta, which has also seen China and India leading the pack. Rents are on the rise in
London – City 75.29 77.91 75.02 sustained growth in CBD rental rates and renewed global most cities in the region. However, dropping rents in Seoul
Perth 68.73 69.76 55.29 investor interest; and Singapore, where occupancies are and Hong Kong are a potential indicator of global economic
expected to stabilize. uncertainty. In Tokyo, where new supply has been increasing
Singapore 65.81 69.21 57.80 for the past three years, we expect construction to peak and
Geneva 65.31 72.83 64.20 Marquee Markets See Rent Decline begin to decline in the coming year.
While Hong Kong, London’s West End and Paris command
São Paulo 63.43 71.42 60.71 the top three highest asking rents for Class A office space,
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2. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
cbd rent cbd rent us
MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr
Average cbd cap
exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE Average class a rate
quoted TIME rate (USD) class a class a class a Gross / prime
MARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD Dec 31, 2011 net rent gross rent net rent rent yield (%)
asia pacific
Adelaide Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 350.00 460.00 33.18 43.61 7.63
Brisbane Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 615.00 745.00 58.30 70.62 7.50
Canberra Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 367.00 445.00 34.79 42.19 9.98
Melbourne Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 498.00 613.00 47.21 58.11 7.00
Perth Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 725.00 880.00 68.73 83.42 8.00
Sydney Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 631.00 762.00 59.82 72.24 6.95
Beijing China SM CNY Month 6.29 313.69 343.69 55.54 60.85 4.32
Chengdu China SM CNY Month 6.29 143.76 162.51 25.45 28.77 7.20
Guangzhou China SM CNY Month 6.29 158.82 215.80 28.12 38.21 6.25
Hong Kong China SF HKD Month 7.77 115.45 133.39 178.34 206.06 2.94
Shanghai China SM CNY Month 6.29 249.89 249.89 44.27 44.27 6.10
Bangalore India SF INR Month 53.06 55.00 65.00 12.44 14.70 9.90
Chennai India SF INR Month 53.06 60.00 70.00 13.57 15.83 10.00
Delhi India SF INR Month 53.06 222.00 261.00 50.21 59.03 9.00
Mumbai India SF INR Month 53.06 191.00 225.00 43.20 50.89 10.56
Jakarta Indonesia SM IDR Month 9,070.00 132,753.00 188,164.00 16.31 23.12 8.10
Tokyo Japan SM JPY Year 77.12 91,476.00 110.17 4.50
Auckland New Zealand SM NZD Year 1.29 307.00 434.00 22.17 31.34 8.66
Wellington New Zealand SM NZD Year 1.29 343.00 439.00 24.77 31.70 8.30
Makati Philippines SM PHP Month 43.80 850.00 21.63 9.40
Singapore Singapore SF SGD Month 1.30 7.11 8.93 65.81 82.65 4.20
Seoul South Korea SM KRW Month 1,158.10 22,883.00 26,867.00 22.02 25.85 5.80
Taipei Taiwan PING TWD Month 30.27 2,450.00 2,940.00 26.98 32.38 2.60
Bangkok Thailand SM THB Month 31.55 665.00 712.00 23.49 25.15
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA)
Vienna Austria SM EUR Month 0.77 18.00 26.00 3.50
Antwerp Belgium SM EUR Month 0.77 10.40 15.02 7.25
Sofia* Bulgaria SM EUR Month 0.77 9.00 13.00 9.00
Zagreb* Croatia SM EUR Month 0.77 12.50 18.05 9.25
Prague* Czech Republic SM EUR Month 0.77 17.00 24.55 6.20
Copenhagen Denmark SM DKK Month 5.73 108.30 21.06 5.00
Cairo Egypt SM USD Month 1.00 21.80 24.30 9.00
Tallinn Estonia SM EUR Month 0.77 13.30 19.21 7.50
Helsinki Finland SM EUR Month 0.77 22.00 31.77 5.75
Bordeaux France SM EUR Month 0.77 13.50 19.50 6.50
Lyon France SM EUR Month 0.77 18.80 27.15 6.00
Montepelier France SM EUR Month 0.77 12.50 18.05 7.00
Paris France SM EUR Month 0.77 62.50 90.26 4.50
Berlin Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 19.00 27.44 5.00
Düsseldorf Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 20.00 28.88 5.25
Frankfurt Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 30.00 43.33 5.20
Hamburg Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 22.00 31.77 4.70
Munich Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 27.00 38.99 4.50
Stuttgart Germany SM EUR Month 0.77 14.20 20.51 5.40
Athens* Greece SM EUR Month 0.77 14.00 20.22 7.50
Budapest* Hungary SM EUR Month 0.77 12.50 18.05 7.75
Dublin Ireland SM EUR Month 0.77 20.00 28.88 7.50
Milan Italy SM EUR Month 0.77 40.00 57.77 5.50
Rome Italy SM EUR Month 0.77 29.00 41.88 6.00
* Rents reflect combined A and B Class.
Colliers International | p. 2
3. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
cbd rent cbd rent us
MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr
Average cbd cap
exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE Average class a rate
quoted TIME rate (USD) class a class a class a Gross / prime
MARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD Dec 31, 2011 net rent gross rent net rent rent yield (%)
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA) continued
Riga Latvia SM EUR Month 0.77 12.00 17.33 8.00
Vilnius Lithuania SM EUR Month 0.77 13.10 18.92 8.50
Amsterdam Netherlands SM EUR Month 0.77 17.10 24.70 6.50
Oslo Norway SM NOK Year 5.98 3,250.00 50.49 5.50
Warsaw* Poland SM EUR Month 0.77 22.60 32.64 6.25
Lisbon Portugal SM EUR Month 0.77 15.00 21.66 7.50
Bucharest* Romania SM EUR Month 0.77 15.00 21.66 8.25
Moscow Russia SM USD Month 1.00 68.00 75.78 9.50
Saint Petersburg Russia SM USD Month 1.00 30.70 34.21 11.00
Riyadh Saudi Arabia SM SAR Year 3.75 1,200.00 29.72 10.00
Belgrade* Serbia SM EUR Month 0.77 13.00 18.77 9.00
Bratislava* Slovakia SM EUR Month 0.77 11.45 16.54 7.50
Madrid Spain SM EUR Month 0.77 24.00 34.66 5.75
Stockholm Sweden SM SEK Year 6.91 4,500.00 60.52 5.00
Geneva Switzerland SM CHF Month 0.94 55.00 65.31 4.25
Zurich Switzerland SM CHF Month 0.94 40.00 47.50 4.10
Istanbul Turkey SM USD Month 1.00 31.05 34.60 7.00
Kyiv* Ukraine SM USD Month 1.00 33.00 36.78 11.00
Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates SM USD Month 1.00 33.10 36.89 10.00
Dubai United Arab Emirates SM USD Month 1.00 35.79 39.89 10.00
Belfast United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 12.50 19.40 6.25
Birmingham United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 21.00 32.60 6.00
Bristol United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 24.00 37.26 6.25
Edinburgh United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 21.00 32.60 6.00
Glasgow United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 23.00 35.70 6.00
London – City United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 48.50 75.29 5.25
London – West End United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 77.50 120.31 4.00
Manchester United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 22.00 34.15 6.00
LATIN AMERICA
Buenos Aires Argentina SM USD Month 1.00 28.60 32.00 31.87 35.66 9.50
Rio de Janeiro Brazil SM BRL Month 1.86 132.00 152.50 78.98 91.25 10.50
São Paulo Brazil SM BRL Month 1.86 106.00 131.00 63.43 78.39
Santiago Chile SM USD Month 1.00 23.51 27.97 26.20 31.17 8.31
Bogotá Colombia SM USD Month 1.00 27.40 30.30 30.54 33.77 8.30
San José Costa Rica SM USD Month 1.00 17.30 19.21 19.28 21.41 9.54
Mexico City Mexico SM USD Month 1.00 27.00 30.00 30.09 33.43 9.00
Panama Panama SM USD Year 1.00 20.00 24.00 1.86 2.23
Lima Peru SM USD Month 1.00 18.83 24.58 20.99 27.39 12.50
* Rents reflect combined A and B Class.
Colliers International | p. 3
4. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
cbd rent cbd rent us
MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr
cbd cap
average rate
exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE average class a / prime
quoted TIME rate (usd) class a class a class a gross yield
MARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD dec 31, 2011 net rent gross rent net rent rent (%)
north AMERICA
Calgary Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 36.00 55.38 35.24 54.21 6.00
Edmonton Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 22.33 39.90 21.86 39.06 6.44
Guelph Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 16.00 27.36 15.66 26.78 7.25
Halifax Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 17.05 31.82 16.69 31.15
Montréal Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 23.24 42.00 22.75 41.11 6.75
Ottawa Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 27.07 48.36 26.50 47.34 7.25
Regina Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 22.00 37.00 21.53 36.22 7.00
Saskatoon Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 25.00 37.00 24.47 36.22 7.00
Toronto Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 53.31 52.18 5.90
Vancouver Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 34.60 54.50 33.87 53.35 5.50
Victoria Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 23.78 37.78 23.28 36.98 6.25
Waterloo Region, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 13.99 25.36 13.69 24.82 7.25
Atlanta United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.23 22.73 11.23 22.73 8.60
Bakersfield United States USD SF Year 1.00 9.31 17.40 9.31 17.40
Baltimore United States USD SF Year 1.00 11.41 22.41 11.41 22.41
Boise United States USD SF Year 1.00 12.62 18.62 12.62 18.62
Boston United States USD SF Year 1.00 27.75 47.75 27.75 47.75 5.30
Charleston United States USD SF Year 1.00 19.14 29.14 19.14 29.14 8.00
Charlotte United States USD SF Year 1.00 24.27 24.27
Chicago United States USD SF Year 1.00 14.50 35.00 14.50 35.00 6.50
Cincinnati United States USD SF Year 1.00 13.87 23.37 13.87 23.37 9.75
Cleveland United States USD SF Year 1.00 20.68 20.68
Columbia United States USD SF Year 1.00 11.75 19.15 11.75 19.15
Columbus United States USD SF Year 1.00 11.07 18.80 11.07 18.80
Dallas/Fort Worth United States USD SF Year 1.00 15.00 25.00 15.00 25.00 7.80
Denver United States USD SF Year 1.00 12.19 28.04 12.19 28.04 6.00
Detroit United States USD SF Year 1.00 22.46 22.46
Fresno United States USD SF Year 1.00 17.90 26.00 17.90 26.00 9.00
Ft. Lauderdale- United States USD SF Year 1.00 17.76 31.26 17.76 31.26 6.30
Broward
Grand Rapids United States USD SF Year 1.00 13.02 20.97 13.02 20.97 9.00
Greenville United States USD SF Year 1.00 10.48 20.63 10.48 20.63
Hartford United States USD SF Year 1.00 10.26 22.76 10.26 22.76 9.00
Honolulu United States USD SF Year 1.00 18.60 34.80 18.60 34.80
Houston United States USD SF Year 1.00 24.92 35.29 24.92 35.29 6.60
Indianapolis United States USD SF Year 1.00 12.27 19.27 12.27 19.27 8.50
Jacksonville United States USD SF Year 1.00 9.22 19.12 9.22 19.12
Kansas City United States USD SF Year 1.00 11.57 19.57 11.57 19.57
Las Vegas United States USD SF Year 1.00 20.08 31.08 20.08 31.08
Colliers International | p. 4
5. highlights | second half 2011 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
cbd rent cbd rent us
MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr
cbd cap
average rate
exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE average class a / prime
quoted time rate (usd) class a net class a class a gross yield
MARKET COUNTRY unit currency period dec 31, 2011 rent gross rent net rent rent (%)
NORTH AMERICA continued
Little Rock United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.35 15.60 8.35 15.60 9.50
Los Angeles United States SF USD Year 1.00 22.52 38.52 22.52 38.52 7.00
Louisville United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.34 20.34
Memphis United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.40 16.65 8.40 16.65
Miami-Dade United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.75 41.25 25.75 41.25
Minneapolis United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.33 14.33
Nashville United States SF USD Year 1.00 22.57 22.57
New York – Downtown United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.17 48.17 25.17 48.17 6.00
Manhattan
New York – Midtown United States SF USD Year 1.00 35.72 67.72 35.72 67.72 5.50
Manhattan
New York – Midtown S. United States SF USD Year 1.00 28.83 48.83 28.83 48.83 5.25
Manhattan
Oakland United States SF USD Year 1.00 18.18 31.68 18.18 31.68 8.00
Oklahoma City United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.18 17.18 10.18 17.18
Omaha United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.29 19.29 10.29 19.29
Orlando United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.06 24.06 13.06 24.06 8.80
Philadelphia United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.89 26.41 14.89 26.41 8.00
Phoenix United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.87 27.87 14.87 27.87
Pittsburgh United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.00 27.50 17.00 27.50 8.25
Pleasanton/Walnut Creek United States SF USD Year 1.00 16.08 27.48 27.48 8.00
Portland United States SF USD Year 1.00 15.20 25.20 15.20 25.20
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill United States SF USD Year 1.00 15.56 22.56 15.56 22.56 8.00
Reno United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.04 23.04
Sacramento United States SF USD Year 1.00 32.34 32.34
San Diego United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.46 28.32 13.46 28.32
San Francisco United States SF USD Year 1.00 41.12 41.12 5.50
San Jose/Silicon Valley United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.54 32.04 17.54 32.04
Savannah United States SF USD Year 1.00 12.20 19.20 12.20 19.20 9.50
Seattle/Puget Sound United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.64 30.11 19.64 30.11 7.63
St. Louis United States SF USD Year 1.00 7.28 17.78 7.28 17.78 9.25
St. Paul, MN United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.33 11.33
Stamford United States SF USD Year 1.00 28.16 41.16 28.16 41.16 8.00
Stockton/San Joaquin County United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.52 21.12 17.52 21.12 8.30
Tampa United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.61 22.61 13.61 22.61 8.00
Washington, DC United States SF USD Year 1.00 30.85 52.85 30.85 52.85 5.75
West Palm Beach/Palm Beach United States SF USD Year 1.00 21.81 36.81 21.81 36.81 9.12
County
White Plains United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.28 32.28 19.28 32.28 8.00
Colliers International | p. 5