Presentation delivered by Professor Myles Allen, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, at Communicate, 3rd November 2011, as part of the Elephant in the Room session Communicate is hosted by the Bristol Natural History Consortium www.communicatenow.org

1. Climate change – so last decade Myles Allen School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford [email_address]

2. The impact of “ climategate ” on the observed surface temperature record http://hadobs.metoffice.com/crutem3/jan_2010_update.html Before correction After correction

3. Global warming is predictable – and predicted

4. But who cares about global temperatures when this kind of thing is happening? The 2010 Russian heatwave

6. Loading the weather dice towards more heatwaves in Russia 4x increase in risk 1 1/10 1/100 1/1000 Odds of monthly temperatures exceeding this threshold in any year