Isabelle Ramdoo 12 November 2013, Helsinski

1. Economic Partnership
Agreements
Where are we and which way
forward?
Isabelle Ramdoo
12 November 2013, Helsinski

2. Structure of presentation
1. Setting the scene
2. Some key facts
3. Where are we now? Some figures and the state of play
of the negotiations
4. Challenges ahead
5. What are the risks?
1. Which way forward?
ECDPM
Page 2

3. 1. Setting the scene: Key milestones
•
Prior to 2008: Lome to Cotonou Preferences: unilateral, nonreciprocal preferential market access BUT not compatible with
WTO
•
Difficult, uncertain and costly WTO waivers between 2000-07
•
Art 36 Cotonou Agreement: parties committed to start EPA
negotiation to address WTO compatibility
•
Since 2008 – Trade outside of Cotonou agreement. EPAs are
stand-alone agreements;
•
However: many unfinished negotiations – to avoid trade
disruption, EC Reg. 1528/2007 – provisional application of EPAs
for countries that had at least initialed an EPA (although interim)
•
Deadline to finalise all unfinished business: 1st October 2014
ECDPM
Page 3

4. 2. Refresher: Key facts
•
•
Stage II 10/2003 – 2007: Regional negotiations
West Africa: 16 countries (ECOWAS + Mauritania)
Central Africa: 8 countries
East and Southern Africa: 11 countries (COMESA minus)
East African Community: 5 countries (full region)
Southern Africa – 6 countries + SA joined later (SADC minus)
Caribbean region – 15 countries
Pacific: Pacific Forum – 14 countries
•
•
•
•
•
•
ECDPM
Stage I 09/2002 – 09/2003: All ACP negotiations
Since then:
Only 1 full EPA (CARIFORUM) signed in 2008;
1 African region ESA (4 countries) signed in 2009 – all countries ratified.
The remaining 17 countries (have agreements that are legally challenging
Africa: CA (Cameroun signed in 2009, not ratified)
West Africa: Ivory Coast and Ghana
Page 4

5. 3.a Where are we now?
ECDPM
Page 5

6. 3.b Countries concerned by deadline and regime
applied in 2014
ECDPM
Page 6

7. 3.c Who will be affected and by how much?
Biggest losers:
Fiji
(97.4%
exports)
•
Swaziland (96.3%)
Both sugar exporters
(€339/tonne)
•
•
Kenya and Namibia
also likely to suffer
Source: Bartels L & Goodison P (2011): EU Proposal to end preferences for 18
African and Pacific States : An Assessment – Trade Hot Topics, Commonwealth
Secretariat – Figures are from 2009
ECDPM
Page 7

8. 3. State of Play of current negotiations
1. ECOWAS: 2 main issues
1.
2.
3.
Market access offer
Development chapter (PAPED – additional resources)
Other contentious issues: MFN Clause; EU Domestic
subsidies and support to agriculture; Obligations to
negotiate FTAs with countries where EU has CU (Turkey,
San Marino, Andorra)
2. EAC: Mainly contentious issues
1.Export taxes; MFN,
2.RoO;
3.Agriculture;
4.non-execution clause (ICC/Kenya)
ECDPM
Page 8

9. 3. SADC:
1. Export taxes, MFN
2. South Africa/SACU market access both on agriculture and
NAMA; RoO cumulation with SA;
3. infant/distress industries;
4. Central Africa:
1. Slow negotiations.
2. Key remaining issues include MA offer; MFN, Export taxes
development
5. Pacific:
Recently agreed to freeze negotiations because of fisheries
6. ESA:
1 outstanding issue: customs cooperation agreement but not an
issue with deadline
ECDPM
Page 9

10. 4. Challenges ahead
•
Deadline 1st Oct. 2014
•
So far, on contention issues, little flexibility on both sides
•
Timeline towards deadline: given pace of negotiations, even
if negotiations are completed there might be problems with
implementation
•
Risk of failure: Some countries might be left without
preferences; likely implications for regional integration (Kenya?
Ivory Coast? Cameroun? Swaziland?)
ECDPM
Page 10

11. 5. Risks ahead
• If agreements are concluded:
Timeline is unrealistic
 Risk of trade disruption pending ratification: economically
challenging and politically unacceptable
• If trade talk collapse:
some countries may sign for fear of market disruption;
big risk for regional (dis)integration;
multiple trade regimes applicable to exports to EU with
negative impacts on RI
Diplomatic and political challenges : EU-Africa Summit –
risk of derailing strategic discussions; mistrust at level of
countries/regions;
 More broadly: geostrategic implications – partners might
turn elsewhere
ECDPM
Page 11

12. 6. Which way forward?
•
10 years on, all technical possibilities have been explored; but
yet no agreement
•
Becoming evident that EPA has negative impact on the overall
Europe-Africa relationship;
•
Increasingly urgent to promote positive and constructive
atmosphere to maintain the broader strategic relations between
Europe and Africa
•
Needs pragmatic and realistic solutions on both sides: outcome
most likely to be resolved at political level
•
Important to weigh the political cost of a possible failure/
undesirable outcome within the broader EU-Africa relationship;
ECDPM
Page 12

13. •
Best way is to prepare for the worst! But are we prepared for a
failure? What “extra-mile” are we ready to go or can we afford to
go?
•
Prepare for “smooth landing” if/when negotiations fail: agree to
disagree and anticipate how to continue to engage constructively
should that happen.
ECDPM
Page 13

14. Thank you
www.ecdpm.org
Isabelle Ramdoo (ir@ecdpm.org)
Page 14