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SuperDecisions Software Tutorial
•   Installing the SuperDecisions Software
•   Glossary (3 slides)
•   Building the decision hierarchy
•   Removing unintended loops
•   Making Pairwise Comparisons
•   Improving Consistency of pairwise comparisons
•   Entering Direct Data instead of Pairwise Comparing
•   The Three Types of Supermatrices
•   Getting Results
•   Sanity Check
•   Graphical Sensitivity
•   Dynamic Sensitivity
•   Restoring backups
•   Exporting Supermatrices for use in Excel or Word
•   Reports
Glossary
Alternative– an alternative is a node representing one of the choices or outcomes for a decision
     model. The alternatives are grouped together in a single cluster.
Cluster – a cluster is a collection of nodes that have some logical relationship together in a frame
     inside a SuperDecisions Window.
Comparison Group – consists of a parent node linked to a group of children nodes that will be
     pairwise compared with respect to the parent node for importance, preference or likelihood. The
     children nodes must be in a cluster together; the parent node may be in a different cluster or in
     the same cluster as its children nodes, and may have children groups in several clusters.
Criterion – a criterion (always use this word when you mean just one!) is a decision factor, something
     that must be considered when making a decision. A criterion is represented by a node in a
     SuperDecisions model.
Goal – a goal in a model is a single node in a cluster with links only “from” it. In hierarchical models
    there should be only one goal. In hierarchies criteria nodes are linked from the goal and
    judgments are made about their importance with respect to the goal. In ANP subnetworks the
    goal is not an explicit node but is external to the network, often being represented by the name of
    the network, and is the concept kept in mind while making all judgments on nodes in the network.
Hierarchy– In a hierarchy the goal is at the top, the criteria are in a separate cluster connected from
    the goal, the subcriteria are in clusters connected from a parent criterion. Clusters are often
    arranged hierarchically with the goal cluster at the top of the window, the criteria cluster below
    that, the subcriteria clusters below that and the alternative cluster at the bottom.
Inconsistency– if element A is preferred to element B by 2 and element B is preferred to element C by
    3, then element A should be preferred to element C by their product, 6. If it is not 6, then there is
    inconsistency. All such triples of judgments for a comparison group are checked for consistency
    and SuperDecisions gives a measure of the inconsistency as a decimal number that should be
    less than about 0.10.
Glossary (Cont’d)
Judgments – a dominance judgment is entered for each pair of children nodes in a comparison group
    using the Fundamental Scale: 1-Equal, 3-Moderate, 5-Strong, 7- Very Strong, 9-Extremely
    Strong, plus numbers in between for intermediate judgments, as well as decimals for finer
    distinction. The judgment modes in SuperDecisions are:
 Graphical – use ratios of bars or relative areas in a circle
 Verbal– use a continuous sliding scale on which the words from the Fundamental Scale are
    indicated
 Matrix– enter the dominance judgments as numbers in a table or matrix for each pair
 Questionnaire–use a questionnaire form in which the appropriate whole number from the
    Fundamental Scale is selected to indicate dominance for each pair
 Direct–this mode allows the direct entry of priorities for a group of children nodes; numbers which
    do not add up to 1.0 can also be entered and they will be normalized to give the priorities
Link or Connection – a link goes from one node to another. A node most often has links to several
    other nodes.
Model– a SuperDecisions model may be a simple network contained in a single window, or a complex
    model of 2 or 3 or more levels consisting of a main network (window) with attached sub-networks
    (windows) linked together.
Network – any collection of clusters, nodes, and their connections in a single window (a window is a
    box or frame). A network may be either a hierarchy or a feedback structure.
Glossary (Cont’d)
Node – a node is an element or factor in a decision such as the goal, a criterion, a subcriterion, or an
    alternative. Nodes are smaller rectangular frames inside a cluster frame.
Normalization– mathematical procedure of summing a group of numbers and dividing each by the
    sum so that the resulting numbers will sum to 1; the numbers are then said to be normalized to 1.
    Priorities are sets of numbers normalized to 1. To obtain priorities from any group of numbers
    apply the procedure above.
Priority – Priorities result from making a set of pairwise comparison judgments on a group of children
    nodes. The priorities sum to 1.
Sensitivity– To perform sensitivity with respect to a criterion in a hierarchy means to vary the priority
    of that node, maintaining the same relative proportion of the other nodes with respect to the goal,
    and see how the outcome changes. To perform sensitivity in a network is a more complicated
    process because every node may be involved in many different comparison groups, but it still
    means to vary the priority of a given element in the structure and see how the outcome changes.
Supermatrix – the judgment data for a model is stored in supermatrices (think of an Excel
    spreadsheet).
Synthesis – after judgments are made the model is synthesized to give the best alternative; that is,
    the one with the highest synthesized priority.
Window– a box or frame, sometimes with a menu of commands across the top, or sometimes not, in
    which case it is called a dialogue box. The opening screen of SuperDecisions is a blank window.
SuperDecisions’ Opening Screen




                                        Main Menu Commands
 •   File – Open file, Close file, Recent Files, Backups, Export supermatrices, Print preview for text version of model
     Each model is contained in a separate file. Old files have .mod extensions, new files have .sdmod extensions
 •   Design – Build a network by creating clusters and nodes and making node connections
 •   Assess/Compare – Perform pairwise comparisons, access the Ratings spreadsheet if there is one
 •   Computations – Synthesize results, look at supermatrices, perform sensitivity, do sanity check for errors and
     incomplete comparisons
 •   Network – quickly transit around the sub-networks in a complex model and go going directly into a selected subnet
 •   Test – Programmer menu for development work
 •   Help – Sample models, including some in other languages, Help (not yet implemented in 2.1.16 version of
     SuperDecisions), for now use this old Help file: http://www.superdecisions.com/SuperDecisions_Help.pdf
Main Menu Commands
•   File – New – brings up templates, Open file, Close file, Recent Files, Backups, Import
    model in .txt format, Export supermatrices to .txt files, Print model report, Old files
    have .mod extensions, new files have .sdmod extensions
•   Design – Build a network by creating clusters and nodes and making node
    connections
•   Assess/Compare – Perform pairwise comparisons, access the Ratings spreadsheet if
    there is one
•   Computations – Synthesize results, look at supermatrices, perform sensitivity, do
    sanity check for errors and incomplete comparisons
•   Network – quickly transit around the sub-networks in a complex model and go going
    directly into a selected subnet
•   Test – Programmer menu for development work
•   Help – Sample models, including some in other languages, Help, for now use this old
    Help file: http://www.superdecisions.com/SuperDecisions_Help.pdf
Relative Decision Model
• We will demonstrate how to use the
  SuperDecisions software to create a
  simple hierarchical relative model for
  selecting the best of three cars.
• In a relative model the alternatives are
  pairwise compared against the criteria.
• In a ratings model the alternatives are
  rated against standards. See Tutorial 2 for
  how to build a ratings model.
A Three-Level Hierarchy to Choose
          the Best Car
                                  Goal
                              Buy Best Car




                          Price            MPG
    Prestige                             (Miles per          Comfort
                                          gallon)




               Acura TL           Toyota Camry        Honda Civic
The Cars
• Acura TL
  –   Cost $30,000-$35,000
  –   Miles per Gallon 20/29 (City/Hwy)
  –   Prestige is very good
  –   Comfort is excellent

• Toyoto Camry
  –   Cost $22,000 - $28,000
  –   Miles per gallon 22/30 (City/Hwy)
  –   Prestige is good
  –   Comfort is good

• Honda Civic
  –   Cost $16,000 - $20,000
  –   Miles per gallon 29/38 (City/Hwy)
  –   Prestige is medium to low
  –   Comfort is medium to low
The Decision Hierarchy as it appears in the
        SuperDecisions Software

                                                                                         Cluster

                                                                                         Node




                                                                                 All links are among
                                                                                 nodes: the cluster link
                                                                                 is automatically created
                                                                                 because some node(s)
                                                                                 in the Criteria cluster
                                                                                 are connected to some
                                                                                 node(s) in the
                                                                                 Alternatives cluster


  See the SuperDecisions software model: Tutorial_1_Acura_Relative_Model.sdmod
Building the Decision Hierarchy
• File>New and choose Simple Network
(simply leaves you with a blank window) or just
start building on the blank opening screen

To create the Goal Cluster select the
Design command:
• Design>Cluster>New brings up
the cluster editing window. Type a name
 and description for the cluster and set the
parameters: font, text size, color,
icon (if you want) and save.
Decision Hierarchy with a new
cluster to hold the Goal Node
  Double-click on a cluster to minimize it to an icon or expand from an icon.
Add Goal Node to Goal Cluster
• Design>Node>New to get to the node editing window.
  Select cluster to add node to, enter goal node name (and
  description if you wish) selecting parameters as before, and save.
  For convenience, just use the word Goal again.


                                                           To display
                                                           descriptions make
                                                           sure the
                                                                   Icon on the
                                                           top menu bar is
                                                           depressed then
                                                           hold cursor over
                                                           node or cluster.
Add the Rest of the Clusters
        and Nodes
                                                               Double-click a
                                                               cluster to minimize
                                                               or expand



                                                              To re-size a cluster
                                                              click on bottom right
                                                              hand button on a
                                                              cluster and drag.

                                                              IMPORTANT!
                                                              The cluster holding
                                                              the alternatives must
                                                              be named with some
                                                              version of the word
                                                              Alternatives
  Note: Prefacing Cluster and node names with numbers         (prefacing with a
  allows you to control their order in the supermatrices as   number is OK)
  they are appear in alphabetical order there.
Build the Hierarchy in SuperDecisions
      Step 1. Create the clusters and nodes shown below
    Or use the                               Use the Design>Node
    shortcut to                              Connexions from menu
  connect nodes                              command to connect the
                                             Goal Node to the Criteria:



To turn on the
connection
shortcut mode
left-click the
“connections”
icon.
Complete the Rest of the
    Connections
                   Turn on the fan-shaped
                   “Show Connections” icon by
                   clicking it
                    Connect each of the
                    four nodes in the
                    Criteria cluster to all
                    three of the
                    alternative nodes.


                    Hold your cursor over a
                    node – such as “Comfort”
                    -, to display nodes it is
                    connected to outlined in
                    red.

                    When the judgments for
                    these nodes with respect
                    to Comfort have been
                    marked as completed,
                    their window will also
                    appear with a red outline.
Connecting Nodes: Menu or Shortcut

               1
Click the
“Make
                                                                                                                 2
connections                                                                        Left-click the “from” node
” icon to                                                                          Selected nodes are depressed
depress it                                                                         and outlined in black
and enter
the shortcut                                                                                                          3
“make
                                                                                           Right-click each “to”
connections
                                                                                           node (which outlines
” mode.
                                                                                           them in red)

                                                                                                         Line then
                                                                                                                      4
                                                                                                        automatically
                                                                                                        appears from
                                                                                                        Goal cluster to
                                                                                                        Criteria cluster


To input a picture for a node or cluster icon use the Design>Node>Edit command , click, the Change Icon command and
select a picture. To add your own pictures to the available collection, copy your picture files into the C:/Program
Files/Super Decisions/Icons folder (*.gif files work pretty well).
Connect Criteria Nodes to
   Alternative Nodes
                          SHORTCUT
                           to connect
                          many nodes
                             at once


                      Shift left-click on any
                      “from” node in a cluster
                      - selects all nodes

                      Shift right-click
                      on any “to” node
                      connects all “from”
                      nodes to all “to”
                      nodes

                        Line automatically
                        appears between
                        clusters
Remove Unintended Loops

                  A loop will appear on a
                  cluster when a node or
                  node(s) are connected to
                  other node(s) in the
                  same cluster.


                  REMOVING LOOPS
                  Right click on the
                  background of the cluster
                  with the loop and select
                  the Remove self loop
                  command.
Unweighted Supermatrix before
  making any pairwise comparisons
The nodes connected from a node are shown in the column below that
node; for example, the Goal node is connected to the criteria nodes and
they are equally weighted at .25 before making pairwise comparisons.
Supermatrices are square; every node appears as a column and a row. The
priorities, that add up to 1.0, are read from the columns.


                                                                          Cluster names

                                                                             Node names



                                                                          Priorities of
                                                                          Criteria nodes
Making Pairwise Comparisons
• Click on the Goal Node to select it.
• Click the pairwise comparison/assessment icon    on
  the menu bar to enter the assessment mode or use the
  Assess/Compare command.




• The Questionnaire Pairwise Comparison Mode opens by
default. Click on the Matrix tab to switch to the Matrix
Mode.
More About the
                 Compare/Assess Mode
                                    There are 5 possible modes for entering assessments;
                                    judgments entered in one mode will appear as the
                                    equivalent judgment in any other mode.
Choose tab indicating whether
comparing nodes or clusters
(cluster comparisons not possible
in hierarchies)

 Selector for parent node of
 comparison


Selector for cluster containing
nodes linked from parent node, to
be compared with respect to it




Restore button will bring back
original judgments for
selected comparison group
when revisiting comparisons
Example of a Pairwise comparison Matrix in
  SuperDecisions and in traditional AHP
• Only 3 judgments               • In the AHP Theory
are necessary                    view you see 9 judgments
                                                Acura        Civic   Camry

                                      Acura        1          8       4
                                      Civic      1/8          1       1/4
                                     Camry       1/4          4       1


                                Diagonal elements are always 1, so they do
                                not need to be displayed. The elements below
                                the diagonal are always inverses of the
 AHP reciprocals are shown in
                                judgment in the reciprocal cell above, so they
 red in SuperDecisions. For
                                do not need to be displayed (e.g. 1/8        8).
 example, 4.0 means for1/4.
                                              aij = 1/ aji
Start Making Pairwise Comparisons
1. Left-click on Goal node to select it
2. Left-click on “make assessments” icon          Comparison/Assessment Questionnaire mode
   appears.
3. Switch to the Matrix mode by clicking on matrix tab. Change the comparative phrase
   1Prestige is ????times more Preference than 2Price by left-clicking on it and choosing
   importance.
.




                    Note the copy commands. You can then paste into Excel or Word.
Enter Judgments (Matrix Mode)
1.   Enter judgments in cells by typing numbers from Fundamental Scale. The direction of the
     arrow indicates which criterion is more important. Double-click on arrow to change dominance
     direction. The first element in the comparative phrase is the dominant one. Up arrows are red,
     down arrows are blue.
2.   The current parent node is the Goal node and the Criteria nodes are being compared with
     respect to it for importance. The inconsistency should be less than 0.10.
                                                               Inconsistency=0.07685; Derived Priorities




                                                    Mark completed
                                                    and move to next
                                                    comparison
Improve Consistency
    (available only from Matrix Mode)
•    Click on the Inconsistency button (at top left corner of matrix)
•    Choose Basic Inconsistency Report; the first cell, Prestige versus MPG, currently has
     a red 3 in it meaning that MPG are more important than Prestige (see previous view
     of matrix), but the Best Value of 1.05 (in blue) means Prestige is a little more
     important than MPG and the inconsistency would be improve down to 0.01 if that
     were the judgment
•    Left-click on either the Current or Best Value cell to return to the matrix and input a
     new value . You can use the suggested value, or a value between it and the original
     value, or leave it as it is and go to the number 2 most inconsistent judgment (MPG
     versus Comfort) and change that, and so on. See next slide.
Matrix View after Improving
Judgment of MPG vs Prestige
 Although the original inconsistency of 0.07 passes the .10 test, it can be improved.


                           New judgment                  Better Inconsistency of 0.01.
Derived Priorities are placed in
         Supermatrix
Other Comparison Modes
Graphical
                  Click and
                drag on circle
                  (NOT the
                   bars) to
                   change
                  judgment




  Verbal     Tracking  –
             shows which
            judgment you
               are on in
              equivalent
              matrix view




               Click button to invert
                    dominance
The Questionnaire Mode
      The Assessment/Compare command opens the pairwise comparison mode by default. Choose the
      judgment on the left or right side of the zero on the questionnaire line that is nearest to the more
      important, more preferred, or more likely, node. Here price is more important than prestige. If
      necessary, and it is here, change the verbal phrase so it reads correctly, as explained below.




In the view above the questionnaire opened with the wrong dominance word,
“moderately to strongly more Preference”. Left click on the dominance phrase itself
 to get the menu of possible phrases and select the most appropriate word.
Direct Data Assessment Mode
            Enter direct data in the Direct mode. It may be already normalized, as
            shown here, or it may be numbers representing costs or distances.




                                          Important! Click <Enter> or move
                                          away from last judgment entered
                                          to make sure it has registered




Click the Invert box when the priorities are inversely related to the data such
as distance, farther is lower priority, or cost, more expensive is lower priority.
Weaknesses of using Direct Data
  •   Data may not be as good as judgments in determining your personal
      priorities. It would usually be better to use your judgment about what
      the price of a car means to you rather than use the the data directly.
      Suppose you are a poor college student. See the two results below.
      Which do you think more accurately reflects the reality?
Comparing cars for price using judgments   Priorities from judgments   Priorities from data
Compare Cars for Prestige and Price
            Prestige Comparisons




            Price Comparisons
Compare Cars for MPG and Comfort
           MPG Comparisons and Priorities




         Comfort Comparisons and Priorities
The Supermatrices
1.   Computations>Unweighted Supermatrix: matrix
     containing the priorities from the pairwise
     comparisons.
2.   Computations>Weighted Supermatrix: The
     unweighted supermatrix components have been
     multiplied by cluster weights. In a hierarchy there
     are no cluster weights and the weighted
     supermatrix is the same as the unweighted.
3.   Computations>Limit Supermatrix: The limit matrix is
     obtained by raising the weighted supermatrix to
     powers until it converges to give the answer.
The Unweighted Supermatrix
after all Judgments Completed
Synthesize to get Overall Results
• Select Computations>Synthesize or click              to get
  the final results: the priorities of the alternatives. You
  MUST name the Alternatives cluster with some
  variation of the word alternatives to get an answer.
                                      Acura TL      0.344
                                      Toyota Camry 0.200
                                      Honda Civic   0.456


                                     The Raw values come from the
                                     Limit Supermatrix. The
                                     Normalized values are obtained
                                     from them by summing and
                                     dividing each by the sum. The
                                     Ideals are obtained by dividing
                                     the Raw values by the largest
                                     Raw value
Sanity Check
• The Computations>Sanity Check will
  reveal incomplete comparisons and
  duplicate goals, among other things. Each
  time you finish a set of comparisons you
  must mark it complete before proceeding
  to the next set. Unintentionally skipped
  comparisons will also be caught by the
  Sanity Check.
WARNING! No Alternatives Found




This error message will appear if there is no cluster named some
version of the word alternatives, IN ENGLISH, but for example,
3alternatives is an acceptable name. The SuperDecisions
software uses this word to find for which nodes it should deliver
synthesized priorities extracted from the raw values in the limit
supermatrix. To obtain synthesized priorities for any other nodes
go to the limit supermatrix, get the raw values, and normalize
them yourself. The Normals are the raw values divided by their
sum. The Ideals are the raw values divided by the largest raw
value.
Results obtained from Limit Supermatrix
Graphical Sensitivity
              1.   To do graphical sensitivity select
                   the Computations>Sensitivity
                   command

              2.   Select Edit>Independent Variable
                   to get to the Sensitivity input
                   selector box and change the
                   Independent Variable to the Goal.




             The first graph that appears has
             the first node, alphabetically,
             selected as the “with respect to”
             node. It is generally not the one
             you want. Here you need to
             select the Goal, not the Acura
             TL, as the independent variable
Graphical Sensitivity (cont’d)
Step one. Select the
Edit>Independent Variable
command


Step two. In the Selected
Node box highlight the
current node (Acura) then
lick Edit.



Step three. In the Input Parameter
    Box select Parameter Type:
    Supermatrix, the Goal as Wrt
    Node (“with respect to”) and
    select one of the criteria as
    the 1st other node, for
    example, choose Prestige.
    Click on the button to the
    right to get the drop down box
    with the other choices.
Getting Sensitivity Graph for Prestige
          Show Selected Node Box                          Set Parameters Box




1                                               2




                                                    Sensitivity Graph for Selected node(s)
Updated Parameters – click Update for results

                                                                                Priority of Prestige
                                                                                is given on x-axis;
                                                                                vertical line starts
                                                                                at Prestige priority
 3                                              4                               of 50%; car
                                                                                priorities for
                                                                                Prestige=50%
                                                                                priority are shown
                                                                                by intersections
                                                                                with vertical line.
Interpreting Sensitivity of Prestige
At Prestige = 50%, Acura is best               At Prestige = 9.2% (actual priority in model), Civic is best




Click and drag vertical line to change priority of Prestige on horizontal axis from 0.5 to 0.1.
The analysis: If your priority is less than about 25% for Prestige, the Honda is the car
to buy. For any priority greater than that, the Acura is your best car.
Priorities of all Nodes in Model
                •   Select Computations>Priorities
                    command to see the priorities of
                    all nodes in model
                •   “Limiting priority” column shows
                    priority of Prestige compared to all
                    the other nodes in the entire
                    model.
                •   “Normalized by Cluster” column
                    shows the priority of Prestige
                    (.096) compared to the other
                    criteria in its cluster.
                •   Drag the vertical line from .5 to .
                    096 on the x-axis in Sensitivity to
                    show the priorities of the cars at
                    the model priority of .096 for
                    Prestige.
Dynamic Sensitivity
Select Computations>New Sensitivity to get into Dynamic Sensitivity Mode


                                                                     Click on “Node
                                                                     for Sensitivity”
                                                                     selector button
                                                                     at right and
                                                                     change from
                                                                     Goal Node,
                                                                     shown here, to
                                                                     1Prestige.
Dynamic Sensitivity - Prestige
                        The Prestige
                        parameter can be
                        dragged from 0.00 to
                        1.00. At 0.50, the
                        priorities of the cars
                        are the same as the
                        overall synthesized
                        result priorities of
                        0.344, 0.200 and
                        0.456.
Dynamic Sensitivity
                      At a parameter
                      value of 1.00 for
                      Prestige the most
                      prestigious car,
                      the Acura is
                      clearly the best
                      choice.
Putting Subcriteria into a Hierarchical
                Model
                           •   Create separate
                               clusters for the
                               subcriteria of the
                               criteria that will have
                               subcriteria.
                           •    Price has subcriteria
                               of initial cost and
                               maintenance, which
                               then connect to the
                               cars.
                           •   Comfort has
                               subcriteria of Ride and
                               Driving Performance
                               which then connect to
                               the cars.
                           •   Prestige and MPG
                               have no subcriteria
                               and connect directly to
                               the cars.
Getting Backups
The most recent backup is at the top of the list. Double-click on the name of the version you want
to open it in a new window with a complete history of backups to its time included. Backups are
made at frequent intervals. However, it is still a good idea to do versioning occasionally yourself,
saving the file with a different version name: Vacation Rev 1.sdmod, Vacation Rev 2.sdmod, and
so on.
Exporting Supermatrices
The following files may be exported as .txt files using the File>Export
   command:
         Unweighted Supermatrix
         Weighted Supermatrix
         Limit Supermatrix
         Cluster Matrix

Import into Excel using the File>Open command . Be sure to select All Files for
   type of file with the Open command so the .txt file you exported will appear.
   Click yes through the wizard to open in Excel.
Reports
• The Computations>Full Report command
  and the File>Print command both
  generate the same HTML file of reports
  about the model. You may use the Print
  Preview version, or save as a .html file. It
  gives the names and descriptions of the
  nodes and clusters and important
  priorities.

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Tutorial 1 ahp_relative_model_ver_2.2.x

  • 1. SuperDecisions Software Tutorial • Installing the SuperDecisions Software • Glossary (3 slides) • Building the decision hierarchy • Removing unintended loops • Making Pairwise Comparisons • Improving Consistency of pairwise comparisons • Entering Direct Data instead of Pairwise Comparing • The Three Types of Supermatrices • Getting Results • Sanity Check • Graphical Sensitivity • Dynamic Sensitivity • Restoring backups • Exporting Supermatrices for use in Excel or Word • Reports
  • 2. Glossary Alternative– an alternative is a node representing one of the choices or outcomes for a decision model. The alternatives are grouped together in a single cluster. Cluster – a cluster is a collection of nodes that have some logical relationship together in a frame inside a SuperDecisions Window. Comparison Group – consists of a parent node linked to a group of children nodes that will be pairwise compared with respect to the parent node for importance, preference or likelihood. The children nodes must be in a cluster together; the parent node may be in a different cluster or in the same cluster as its children nodes, and may have children groups in several clusters. Criterion – a criterion (always use this word when you mean just one!) is a decision factor, something that must be considered when making a decision. A criterion is represented by a node in a SuperDecisions model. Goal – a goal in a model is a single node in a cluster with links only “from” it. In hierarchical models there should be only one goal. In hierarchies criteria nodes are linked from the goal and judgments are made about their importance with respect to the goal. In ANP subnetworks the goal is not an explicit node but is external to the network, often being represented by the name of the network, and is the concept kept in mind while making all judgments on nodes in the network. Hierarchy– In a hierarchy the goal is at the top, the criteria are in a separate cluster connected from the goal, the subcriteria are in clusters connected from a parent criterion. Clusters are often arranged hierarchically with the goal cluster at the top of the window, the criteria cluster below that, the subcriteria clusters below that and the alternative cluster at the bottom. Inconsistency– if element A is preferred to element B by 2 and element B is preferred to element C by 3, then element A should be preferred to element C by their product, 6. If it is not 6, then there is inconsistency. All such triples of judgments for a comparison group are checked for consistency and SuperDecisions gives a measure of the inconsistency as a decimal number that should be less than about 0.10.
  • 3. Glossary (Cont’d) Judgments – a dominance judgment is entered for each pair of children nodes in a comparison group using the Fundamental Scale: 1-Equal, 3-Moderate, 5-Strong, 7- Very Strong, 9-Extremely Strong, plus numbers in between for intermediate judgments, as well as decimals for finer distinction. The judgment modes in SuperDecisions are:  Graphical – use ratios of bars or relative areas in a circle  Verbal– use a continuous sliding scale on which the words from the Fundamental Scale are indicated  Matrix– enter the dominance judgments as numbers in a table or matrix for each pair  Questionnaire–use a questionnaire form in which the appropriate whole number from the Fundamental Scale is selected to indicate dominance for each pair  Direct–this mode allows the direct entry of priorities for a group of children nodes; numbers which do not add up to 1.0 can also be entered and they will be normalized to give the priorities Link or Connection – a link goes from one node to another. A node most often has links to several other nodes. Model– a SuperDecisions model may be a simple network contained in a single window, or a complex model of 2 or 3 or more levels consisting of a main network (window) with attached sub-networks (windows) linked together. Network – any collection of clusters, nodes, and their connections in a single window (a window is a box or frame). A network may be either a hierarchy or a feedback structure.
  • 4. Glossary (Cont’d) Node – a node is an element or factor in a decision such as the goal, a criterion, a subcriterion, or an alternative. Nodes are smaller rectangular frames inside a cluster frame. Normalization– mathematical procedure of summing a group of numbers and dividing each by the sum so that the resulting numbers will sum to 1; the numbers are then said to be normalized to 1. Priorities are sets of numbers normalized to 1. To obtain priorities from any group of numbers apply the procedure above. Priority – Priorities result from making a set of pairwise comparison judgments on a group of children nodes. The priorities sum to 1. Sensitivity– To perform sensitivity with respect to a criterion in a hierarchy means to vary the priority of that node, maintaining the same relative proportion of the other nodes with respect to the goal, and see how the outcome changes. To perform sensitivity in a network is a more complicated process because every node may be involved in many different comparison groups, but it still means to vary the priority of a given element in the structure and see how the outcome changes. Supermatrix – the judgment data for a model is stored in supermatrices (think of an Excel spreadsheet). Synthesis – after judgments are made the model is synthesized to give the best alternative; that is, the one with the highest synthesized priority. Window– a box or frame, sometimes with a menu of commands across the top, or sometimes not, in which case it is called a dialogue box. The opening screen of SuperDecisions is a blank window.
  • 5. SuperDecisions’ Opening Screen Main Menu Commands • File – Open file, Close file, Recent Files, Backups, Export supermatrices, Print preview for text version of model Each model is contained in a separate file. Old files have .mod extensions, new files have .sdmod extensions • Design – Build a network by creating clusters and nodes and making node connections • Assess/Compare – Perform pairwise comparisons, access the Ratings spreadsheet if there is one • Computations – Synthesize results, look at supermatrices, perform sensitivity, do sanity check for errors and incomplete comparisons • Network – quickly transit around the sub-networks in a complex model and go going directly into a selected subnet • Test – Programmer menu for development work • Help – Sample models, including some in other languages, Help (not yet implemented in 2.1.16 version of SuperDecisions), for now use this old Help file: http://www.superdecisions.com/SuperDecisions_Help.pdf
  • 6. Main Menu Commands • File – New – brings up templates, Open file, Close file, Recent Files, Backups, Import model in .txt format, Export supermatrices to .txt files, Print model report, Old files have .mod extensions, new files have .sdmod extensions • Design – Build a network by creating clusters and nodes and making node connections • Assess/Compare – Perform pairwise comparisons, access the Ratings spreadsheet if there is one • Computations – Synthesize results, look at supermatrices, perform sensitivity, do sanity check for errors and incomplete comparisons • Network – quickly transit around the sub-networks in a complex model and go going directly into a selected subnet • Test – Programmer menu for development work • Help – Sample models, including some in other languages, Help, for now use this old Help file: http://www.superdecisions.com/SuperDecisions_Help.pdf
  • 7. Relative Decision Model • We will demonstrate how to use the SuperDecisions software to create a simple hierarchical relative model for selecting the best of three cars. • In a relative model the alternatives are pairwise compared against the criteria. • In a ratings model the alternatives are rated against standards. See Tutorial 2 for how to build a ratings model.
  • 8. A Three-Level Hierarchy to Choose the Best Car Goal Buy Best Car Price MPG Prestige (Miles per Comfort gallon) Acura TL Toyota Camry Honda Civic
  • 9. The Cars • Acura TL – Cost $30,000-$35,000 – Miles per Gallon 20/29 (City/Hwy) – Prestige is very good – Comfort is excellent • Toyoto Camry – Cost $22,000 - $28,000 – Miles per gallon 22/30 (City/Hwy) – Prestige is good – Comfort is good • Honda Civic – Cost $16,000 - $20,000 – Miles per gallon 29/38 (City/Hwy) – Prestige is medium to low – Comfort is medium to low
  • 10. The Decision Hierarchy as it appears in the SuperDecisions Software Cluster Node All links are among nodes: the cluster link is automatically created because some node(s) in the Criteria cluster are connected to some node(s) in the Alternatives cluster See the SuperDecisions software model: Tutorial_1_Acura_Relative_Model.sdmod
  • 11. Building the Decision Hierarchy • File>New and choose Simple Network (simply leaves you with a blank window) or just start building on the blank opening screen To create the Goal Cluster select the Design command: • Design>Cluster>New brings up the cluster editing window. Type a name and description for the cluster and set the parameters: font, text size, color, icon (if you want) and save.
  • 12. Decision Hierarchy with a new cluster to hold the Goal Node Double-click on a cluster to minimize it to an icon or expand from an icon.
  • 13. Add Goal Node to Goal Cluster • Design>Node>New to get to the node editing window. Select cluster to add node to, enter goal node name (and description if you wish) selecting parameters as before, and save. For convenience, just use the word Goal again. To display descriptions make sure the Icon on the top menu bar is depressed then hold cursor over node or cluster.
  • 14. Add the Rest of the Clusters and Nodes Double-click a cluster to minimize or expand To re-size a cluster click on bottom right hand button on a cluster and drag. IMPORTANT! The cluster holding the alternatives must be named with some version of the word Alternatives Note: Prefacing Cluster and node names with numbers (prefacing with a allows you to control their order in the supermatrices as number is OK) they are appear in alphabetical order there.
  • 15. Build the Hierarchy in SuperDecisions Step 1. Create the clusters and nodes shown below Or use the Use the Design>Node shortcut to Connexions from menu connect nodes command to connect the Goal Node to the Criteria: To turn on the connection shortcut mode left-click the “connections” icon.
  • 16. Complete the Rest of the Connections Turn on the fan-shaped “Show Connections” icon by clicking it Connect each of the four nodes in the Criteria cluster to all three of the alternative nodes. Hold your cursor over a node – such as “Comfort” -, to display nodes it is connected to outlined in red. When the judgments for these nodes with respect to Comfort have been marked as completed, their window will also appear with a red outline.
  • 17. Connecting Nodes: Menu or Shortcut 1 Click the “Make 2 connections Left-click the “from” node ” icon to Selected nodes are depressed depress it and outlined in black and enter the shortcut 3 “make Right-click each “to” connections node (which outlines ” mode. them in red) Line then 4 automatically appears from Goal cluster to Criteria cluster To input a picture for a node or cluster icon use the Design>Node>Edit command , click, the Change Icon command and select a picture. To add your own pictures to the available collection, copy your picture files into the C:/Program Files/Super Decisions/Icons folder (*.gif files work pretty well).
  • 18. Connect Criteria Nodes to Alternative Nodes SHORTCUT to connect many nodes at once Shift left-click on any “from” node in a cluster - selects all nodes Shift right-click on any “to” node connects all “from” nodes to all “to” nodes Line automatically appears between clusters
  • 19. Remove Unintended Loops A loop will appear on a cluster when a node or node(s) are connected to other node(s) in the same cluster. REMOVING LOOPS Right click on the background of the cluster with the loop and select the Remove self loop command.
  • 20. Unweighted Supermatrix before making any pairwise comparisons The nodes connected from a node are shown in the column below that node; for example, the Goal node is connected to the criteria nodes and they are equally weighted at .25 before making pairwise comparisons. Supermatrices are square; every node appears as a column and a row. The priorities, that add up to 1.0, are read from the columns. Cluster names Node names Priorities of Criteria nodes
  • 21. Making Pairwise Comparisons • Click on the Goal Node to select it. • Click the pairwise comparison/assessment icon on the menu bar to enter the assessment mode or use the Assess/Compare command. • The Questionnaire Pairwise Comparison Mode opens by default. Click on the Matrix tab to switch to the Matrix Mode.
  • 22. More About the Compare/Assess Mode There are 5 possible modes for entering assessments; judgments entered in one mode will appear as the equivalent judgment in any other mode. Choose tab indicating whether comparing nodes or clusters (cluster comparisons not possible in hierarchies) Selector for parent node of comparison Selector for cluster containing nodes linked from parent node, to be compared with respect to it Restore button will bring back original judgments for selected comparison group when revisiting comparisons
  • 23. Example of a Pairwise comparison Matrix in SuperDecisions and in traditional AHP • Only 3 judgments • In the AHP Theory are necessary view you see 9 judgments Acura Civic Camry Acura 1 8 4 Civic 1/8 1 1/4 Camry 1/4 4 1 Diagonal elements are always 1, so they do not need to be displayed. The elements below the diagonal are always inverses of the AHP reciprocals are shown in judgment in the reciprocal cell above, so they red in SuperDecisions. For do not need to be displayed (e.g. 1/8 8). example, 4.0 means for1/4. aij = 1/ aji
  • 24. Start Making Pairwise Comparisons 1. Left-click on Goal node to select it 2. Left-click on “make assessments” icon Comparison/Assessment Questionnaire mode appears. 3. Switch to the Matrix mode by clicking on matrix tab. Change the comparative phrase 1Prestige is ????times more Preference than 2Price by left-clicking on it and choosing importance. . Note the copy commands. You can then paste into Excel or Word.
  • 25. Enter Judgments (Matrix Mode) 1. Enter judgments in cells by typing numbers from Fundamental Scale. The direction of the arrow indicates which criterion is more important. Double-click on arrow to change dominance direction. The first element in the comparative phrase is the dominant one. Up arrows are red, down arrows are blue. 2. The current parent node is the Goal node and the Criteria nodes are being compared with respect to it for importance. The inconsistency should be less than 0.10. Inconsistency=0.07685; Derived Priorities Mark completed and move to next comparison
  • 26. Improve Consistency (available only from Matrix Mode) • Click on the Inconsistency button (at top left corner of matrix) • Choose Basic Inconsistency Report; the first cell, Prestige versus MPG, currently has a red 3 in it meaning that MPG are more important than Prestige (see previous view of matrix), but the Best Value of 1.05 (in blue) means Prestige is a little more important than MPG and the inconsistency would be improve down to 0.01 if that were the judgment • Left-click on either the Current or Best Value cell to return to the matrix and input a new value . You can use the suggested value, or a value between it and the original value, or leave it as it is and go to the number 2 most inconsistent judgment (MPG versus Comfort) and change that, and so on. See next slide.
  • 27. Matrix View after Improving Judgment of MPG vs Prestige Although the original inconsistency of 0.07 passes the .10 test, it can be improved. New judgment Better Inconsistency of 0.01.
  • 28. Derived Priorities are placed in Supermatrix
  • 29. Other Comparison Modes Graphical Click and drag on circle (NOT the bars) to change judgment Verbal Tracking  – shows which judgment you are on in equivalent matrix view Click button to invert dominance
  • 30. The Questionnaire Mode The Assessment/Compare command opens the pairwise comparison mode by default. Choose the judgment on the left or right side of the zero on the questionnaire line that is nearest to the more important, more preferred, or more likely, node. Here price is more important than prestige. If necessary, and it is here, change the verbal phrase so it reads correctly, as explained below. In the view above the questionnaire opened with the wrong dominance word, “moderately to strongly more Preference”. Left click on the dominance phrase itself to get the menu of possible phrases and select the most appropriate word.
  • 31. Direct Data Assessment Mode Enter direct data in the Direct mode. It may be already normalized, as shown here, or it may be numbers representing costs or distances. Important! Click <Enter> or move away from last judgment entered to make sure it has registered Click the Invert box when the priorities are inversely related to the data such as distance, farther is lower priority, or cost, more expensive is lower priority.
  • 32. Weaknesses of using Direct Data • Data may not be as good as judgments in determining your personal priorities. It would usually be better to use your judgment about what the price of a car means to you rather than use the the data directly. Suppose you are a poor college student. See the two results below. Which do you think more accurately reflects the reality? Comparing cars for price using judgments Priorities from judgments Priorities from data
  • 33. Compare Cars for Prestige and Price Prestige Comparisons Price Comparisons
  • 34. Compare Cars for MPG and Comfort MPG Comparisons and Priorities Comfort Comparisons and Priorities
  • 35. The Supermatrices 1. Computations>Unweighted Supermatrix: matrix containing the priorities from the pairwise comparisons. 2. Computations>Weighted Supermatrix: The unweighted supermatrix components have been multiplied by cluster weights. In a hierarchy there are no cluster weights and the weighted supermatrix is the same as the unweighted. 3. Computations>Limit Supermatrix: The limit matrix is obtained by raising the weighted supermatrix to powers until it converges to give the answer.
  • 36. The Unweighted Supermatrix after all Judgments Completed
  • 37. Synthesize to get Overall Results • Select Computations>Synthesize or click to get the final results: the priorities of the alternatives. You MUST name the Alternatives cluster with some variation of the word alternatives to get an answer. Acura TL 0.344 Toyota Camry 0.200 Honda Civic 0.456 The Raw values come from the Limit Supermatrix. The Normalized values are obtained from them by summing and dividing each by the sum. The Ideals are obtained by dividing the Raw values by the largest Raw value
  • 38. Sanity Check • The Computations>Sanity Check will reveal incomplete comparisons and duplicate goals, among other things. Each time you finish a set of comparisons you must mark it complete before proceeding to the next set. Unintentionally skipped comparisons will also be caught by the Sanity Check.
  • 39. WARNING! No Alternatives Found This error message will appear if there is no cluster named some version of the word alternatives, IN ENGLISH, but for example, 3alternatives is an acceptable name. The SuperDecisions software uses this word to find for which nodes it should deliver synthesized priorities extracted from the raw values in the limit supermatrix. To obtain synthesized priorities for any other nodes go to the limit supermatrix, get the raw values, and normalize them yourself. The Normals are the raw values divided by their sum. The Ideals are the raw values divided by the largest raw value.
  • 40. Results obtained from Limit Supermatrix
  • 41. Graphical Sensitivity 1. To do graphical sensitivity select the Computations>Sensitivity command 2. Select Edit>Independent Variable to get to the Sensitivity input selector box and change the Independent Variable to the Goal. The first graph that appears has the first node, alphabetically, selected as the “with respect to” node. It is generally not the one you want. Here you need to select the Goal, not the Acura TL, as the independent variable
  • 42. Graphical Sensitivity (cont’d) Step one. Select the Edit>Independent Variable command Step two. In the Selected Node box highlight the current node (Acura) then lick Edit. Step three. In the Input Parameter Box select Parameter Type: Supermatrix, the Goal as Wrt Node (“with respect to”) and select one of the criteria as the 1st other node, for example, choose Prestige. Click on the button to the right to get the drop down box with the other choices.
  • 43. Getting Sensitivity Graph for Prestige Show Selected Node Box Set Parameters Box 1 2 Sensitivity Graph for Selected node(s) Updated Parameters – click Update for results Priority of Prestige is given on x-axis; vertical line starts at Prestige priority 3 4 of 50%; car priorities for Prestige=50% priority are shown by intersections with vertical line.
  • 44. Interpreting Sensitivity of Prestige At Prestige = 50%, Acura is best At Prestige = 9.2% (actual priority in model), Civic is best Click and drag vertical line to change priority of Prestige on horizontal axis from 0.5 to 0.1. The analysis: If your priority is less than about 25% for Prestige, the Honda is the car to buy. For any priority greater than that, the Acura is your best car.
  • 45. Priorities of all Nodes in Model • Select Computations>Priorities command to see the priorities of all nodes in model • “Limiting priority” column shows priority of Prestige compared to all the other nodes in the entire model. • “Normalized by Cluster” column shows the priority of Prestige (.096) compared to the other criteria in its cluster. • Drag the vertical line from .5 to . 096 on the x-axis in Sensitivity to show the priorities of the cars at the model priority of .096 for Prestige.
  • 46. Dynamic Sensitivity Select Computations>New Sensitivity to get into Dynamic Sensitivity Mode Click on “Node for Sensitivity” selector button at right and change from Goal Node, shown here, to 1Prestige.
  • 47. Dynamic Sensitivity - Prestige The Prestige parameter can be dragged from 0.00 to 1.00. At 0.50, the priorities of the cars are the same as the overall synthesized result priorities of 0.344, 0.200 and 0.456.
  • 48. Dynamic Sensitivity At a parameter value of 1.00 for Prestige the most prestigious car, the Acura is clearly the best choice.
  • 49. Putting Subcriteria into a Hierarchical Model • Create separate clusters for the subcriteria of the criteria that will have subcriteria. • Price has subcriteria of initial cost and maintenance, which then connect to the cars. • Comfort has subcriteria of Ride and Driving Performance which then connect to the cars. • Prestige and MPG have no subcriteria and connect directly to the cars.
  • 50. Getting Backups The most recent backup is at the top of the list. Double-click on the name of the version you want to open it in a new window with a complete history of backups to its time included. Backups are made at frequent intervals. However, it is still a good idea to do versioning occasionally yourself, saving the file with a different version name: Vacation Rev 1.sdmod, Vacation Rev 2.sdmod, and so on.
  • 51. Exporting Supermatrices The following files may be exported as .txt files using the File>Export command: Unweighted Supermatrix Weighted Supermatrix Limit Supermatrix Cluster Matrix Import into Excel using the File>Open command . Be sure to select All Files for type of file with the Open command so the .txt file you exported will appear. Click yes through the wizard to open in Excel.
  • 52. Reports • The Computations>Full Report command and the File>Print command both generate the same HTML file of reports about the model. You may use the Print Preview version, or save as a .html file. It gives the names and descriptions of the nodes and clusters and important priorities.