1. WP1 White Paper:
Growth and growth intentions - a
meta-analysis of existing evidence
Jonathan Levie and Erkko Autio

2. Entrepreneurial
Ambition and Growth
• Initial research in this theme includes – first 12 months:
• 1.1: Growth and growth intentions – A systematic review of
existing evidence on the causes and growth consequences of
the growth intentions of business owners
• 1.2: Entrepreneurial Ambition, Resources and SME Growth
Recent evidence suggests that high-aspiration early-stage
entrepreneurship is associated with subsequent macro-
economic growth. This project will examine the effect of
regional, local, peer-group, firm-level, and individual-level
factors that influence both the propensity to engage in
ambitious entrepreneurship and to achieve rapid growth

3. WP I Content
• Entrepreneurial firm growth – a meta-analysis
• Entrepreneurial ambition, resources, and SME growth
• Entrepreneurial ambition and growth – an international
comparison
• Bottlenecks in UK Systems of Entrepreneurship
• Developing policy insights – policy portfolio analysis

4. Content and Data
Literature UK GEM Data Global GEM Data
Business Structure
Database GEDI Data Other
Entrepreneurial firm growth – a meta-
analysis
A novel meta-analysis
technique
Entrepreneurial ambition, resources,
and SME growth
Multi-level analysis of
local, peer group, firm
and individual-level
effects
Multi-level analysis of
local, regional and firm-
level effects
Entrepreneurial ambition and growth –
an international comparison
Multi-level analysis
with focus on
institutional and
framework conditions
(e.g., IP protection;
culture; social reference
groups; other)
Bottlenecks in UK Systems of
Entrepreneurship
Multi-level analysis of
the effect of
bottlenecks on growth
and growth ambition
Multi-level analysis of
the effect of
bottlenecks on growth
and growth ambition
Identification of
bottlenecks at regional
(data permitting) and
home country levels
Developing policy insights – policy
portfolio analysis
Policy portfolio
optimisation analysis

5. Country Systems of
Entrepreneurship
(example Scotland vs ’Innovation Driven’ countries)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Opportunity Perception
(Attitudes)
Startup Skills (Attitudes)
NonFear of Failure (Attitudes)
Networking (Attitudes)
Cultural Support (Attitudes)
Opportunity Startup (Activity)
Tech Sector (Activity)
Quality of Human Resources
(Activity)
Competition (Activity)
Product Innovation
(Aspirations)
Process Innovation
(Aspirations)
High Growth (Aspirations)
Internationalisation
(Aspirations)
Risk Capital (Aspirations)
Lower Quartile
Median
Upper Quartile
zUKID_Scotland

6. Growth and Growth Intentions – a
meta-analysis of existing evidence
• How strong is the association between
entrepreneurial growth intentions and subsequent
performance?
• What affects entrepreneurial growth intentions at
the individual level and national level, and how big
are these effects?
• What can be done to raise entrepreneurial growth
intentions in the UK?
• What further research needs to be done in this area?

7. Why growth intentions matter
• Growing firms associated with job creation, economic
growth
• The UK appears to suffer from a growth intention gap
in relation to the United States
• The prevalence of growth-oriented entrepreneurs has
declined since 1999 in the UK but not in the US
• Case-based comparisons of UK and US firms suggest
“high growth is much more linked to motivations and
the managerial capacity of firms than the immediate
environment” (Treasury/BERR report, 2008)

8. Meta-analysis
• Disciplined search, statistical comparison of findings
and summarizing of “effects” by size, direction and
robustness
• Effect of growth intention on realised growth
– Only quantitative empirical studies that measured growth
intention and size at time t0 and then measured realised
growth at a later time t1 were included
– 13 studies
• Effect of other factors on growth intention
– individual, firm and country level factors
– 39 studies

9. Effect of growth intentions
on realised growth
• For young owners, the average effect size was positive but not
robust.
 For established business owners and sales growth, the
average effect size was small to medium (0.22), positive and
robust.
 For established business owners and employment growth, the
average effect size was medium (0.33), positive and robust.
• Tests suggested that growth intentions had a direct effect on
subsequent realised growth; i.e. that the effect did not operate
solely through other variables.
• But some studies have found evidence of indirect effects as
well.

10. Factors associated with
growth intention
• Three types of characteristics
– individual characteristics, business characteristics
and contextual characteristics
• Three phases in business evolution
– nascent (active, but pre-start), new and
established for at least three years
• Two levels of analysis
– individual level and country level

11. Individual characteristics/
Individual level
• Age
– No clear result for nascent entrepreneurs
Small negative effect for younger owners of new businesses
– No clear result for established owners
• Gender
– Male early-stage entrepreneurs are more likely to have growth
intentions than female early-stage entrepreneurs
Small positive effect for male nascent entrepreneurs
Small positive effect for male new business owners
– Results for established business owners are mixed
• Education
Generally positive, but not in all contexts
– Effect size for nascent entrepreneurs is very small

12. Individual characteristics/
Individual level
• Entrepreneurial experience
 Small negative effect for nascent entrepreneurs
 Small positive effect for established business owners
• Management experience
– Mixed results – signalling that other factors must moderate
this relationship
• Industry experience
– Mixed results – other factors must moderate this
relationship

13. Individual characteristics/
Individual level
• Risk-taking
– Small to medium positive effect for nascent entrepreneurs
from one sample, two studies
Small to medium positive effect for established business
owners
– Direction of causality?
• Achievement motivation
Small positive effect for established business owners
• Innovation/innovativeness
Small positive effect for nascent, new and established
business owners

14. Individual characteristics/
Individual level
• Motivation for starting the business
– at the nascent business stage:
• Possible positive effect of wealth-seeking, at least in
the US
• No effect of independence seeking
• Self-efficacy (task self-confidence)
– Insufficient evidence

15. Business characteristics/
Individual level
• High technology
– No evidence that this affects growth intention
• Exporting
– One study each on nascent, new and established
business owners, all positive
• Age of business
– No clear result; other factors appear to influence this
relationship
• Size of business
– No clear result; other factors appear to influence this
relationship

16. Country characteristics/
Country level
• Note: all studies based on GEM surveys, employed
partially overlapping data
 Regulatory burden in a country had a small to medium
negative effect on the prevalence rate of growth-
oriented early-stage entrepreneurs
 Regulatory burden in a country had a medium to
strong negative effect on the relative prevalence rate
of growth-oriented early-stage entrepreneurs
 Regulatory protection/rule of law had a medium
positive effect on relative prevalence of growth-
oriented early-stage entrepreneurs

17. Country characteristics/
Country level
 Significant large positive effect of prevalence of
wealth motives for starting a business on relative
prevalence of growth-oriented early-stage
entrepreneurs
 Significant medium to large negative effect of
prevalence of independence motives for starting a
business on relative prevalence of growth-oriented
early-stage entrepreneurs

18. Raising Entrepreneurial Growth
Intentions: Implications for Policy
• Business growth’s golden combination:
growth intention, innovation and exporting
– What if UK entrepreneurs saw the EU as their
home market?
• Raising or enabling aspirations?
– If UK entrepreneurs were motivated by the pursuit
of wealth, they would have clear incentives to
grow in the current regulatory climate
– But they do not appear to be as motivated by
wealth as US entrepreneurs

19. Raising Entrepreneurial Growth
Intentions: Implications for Policy
• Entrepreneurship or intrapreneurship?
– Potential innovative, growth-oriented entrepreneurs
may have choices about the context in which they
could act as entrepreneurs
– The UK provides a relatively good environment for
“intrapreneurship”
– Widen the debate from ‘understanding why aren’t
there more growth-oriented business owners in the
UK’ to ‘understanding occupational choice of growth-
oriented entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs in the UK’

20. Themes for further research
• Longitudinal study tracking UK nascent
entrepreneurs over time (new database needed)
• Multi-level studies: individual, peer, business and
country characteristics/ Individual level of analysis
(existing databases)
• Moderation studies: How the effect of one factor on
growth intention is influenced by another factor
• Costs and benefits of entrepreneurship over
intrapreneurship for projects with growth potential

21. Contact us:
The authors: j.levie@strath.ac.uk / erkko.autio@imperial.ac.uk
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please contact the Director, Stephen Roper at stephen.roper@wbs.ac.uk or
the Deputy Director, Mark Hart at mark.hart@aston.ac.uk.
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