The Impact of Droughts and Floods on Food Security and Policy Options to Alleviate Negative Effects

The Impact of Droughts and Floods on Food Security and Policy Options to Alleviate Negative Effects Stephen Devereux Institute of Development Studies University of Sussex, UK IAAE plenary session: “ Economics of Natural Disasters” Gold Coast, Australia, 13 August 2006

Structure of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Drought & Flood Impacts on Food Security as a Sequence of “Entitlement Failures” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

Impacts of Weather Shocks on Crop and Livestock Production ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

Impacts of Weather Shocks on Foodcrop Production in Malawi ,[object Object],Production–based entitlements

Impacts of Weather Shocks on Labour Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

Impacts of Weather Shocks on Labour Markets in Malawi ,[object Object],Labour–based entitlements Labour demand Labour supply 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Impacts of Weather Shocks on Commodity Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

Impacts of Weather Shocks on Food Markets in Malawi ,[object Object],Trade–based entitlements

Impacts of Weather Shocks on Asset Markets in Malawi ,[object Object],Trade–based entitlements

[object Object],[object Object],Impacts of Weather Shocks on Informal Transfers Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

Policy Responses to Failures of Crop and Livestock Production ,[object Object],[object Object],Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

Policy Responses to Failures of Crop and Livestock Production ,[object Object],Production–based entitlements Commercialisation ( Land reform ) Intensification ( Access to inputs ) High Vulnerability Migration ( Rural–rural; rural–urban ) Diversification ( On–farm; off–farm ) Low Vulnerability High Growth Low Growth

Policy Responses to Failures of Labour Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

Policy Responses to Failures of Commodity Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

[object Object],[object Object],Policy Responses to Failures of Informal Transfers Production–based entitlements Labour–based entitlements Trade–based entitlements Transfer–based entitlements

Policy Responses to Failures of Informal Transfers ,[object Object],Transfer–based entitlements

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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The Impact of Droughts and Floods on Food Security and Policy Options to Alleviate Negative Effects

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The Impact of Droughts and Floods on Food Security and Policy Options to Alleviate Negative Effects