Identifying Dutch elm disease (DED) ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Man (IoM) with an agent-based model. Bruce Mitchell, Joana Barros & Daniel Wendel The paper presents a summary of an MSc GISc dissertation ( Mitchell ). It proposes a 2.5D / 3D spatial analytical agent-based-model (ABM) approach to identifying DED ‘danger-spots’ – locations on the IoM where outbreaks of DED might lead to the greatest mortality among the Isle’s elm population.

1. Identifying Dutch elm disease ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Manwith an agent-based model Bruce Mitchell a, Joana Barros b,Daniel Wendelc Email a: bruce.birkbeck@ntlworld.comb: j.barros@bbk.ac.ukc: djwendel@gmail.com 1

2. Suffolk, 1984 2

3. StarLogo TNG - code blocks 3

4. The Isle of Man in TNG SpaceLand 4

5. Objective Is there a relationship between where a beetle cluster originates and the number of agent elms that die? If so, might that relationship be used to map the island to reveal locations where an infestation might potentially be more or less damaging? 5

7. Landscape determineselm habitats

8. On Man, there is an ‘elm-line’ of ca. 160 metres a.s.l..

9. Two ranges of hills exceed this elevation, restricting the flow of the disease across the island

11. A single model run … Sets up tree, beetle, forester, bird agents ‘Infects’ up to 1.5% of elms with beetles Runs an elm census at game turn (GT) 0 Generates a single beetle cluster Runs a beetle census at GT 60 Continues to GT 1,000 Exports results to .csv file Resets to GT 0 and introduces next run 7

12. Model agent flow chart 8

13. The agents 9

14. Model system flow chart 10

15. SL-TNG Output For each run: cluster originates in random location; number of elms surviving to GT1000 varies .csv run results ported to MapInfo and SPSS for processing, then transferred to ArcGIS Spatial Analyst 11

16. 12 RCNS Calculation – step one

17. 13 RCNS Calculation – step two

18. RCNS zones and regions 14

19. Data processing flowchart 15

20. Frequency of cell inclusion 16

21. Cluster median centres and elm survival 17

22. Modelled danger-spots 18

23. Identifying Dutch elm disease ‘danger-spots’ on the Isle of Manwith an agent-based model Bruce MitchellData Visualisation CentreMethodology DirectorateOffice for National Statistics bruce.mitchell@ons.gov.ukJoana Barros Department of Geography, Environment and Development Studies, Birkbeck, University of London, Malet Street, London, WC1E 7HX j.barros@bbk.ac.ukDaniel WendelLead StarLogo TNG DeveloperScheller Teacher Education Program Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyBoston, MA, USA djwendel@gmail.com 19

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