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The strategic role of the private sector
  in agriculture and rural development
             Platform Knowledge Piece (Part 1)
                                      Jonathan Mitchell

                                   Wednesday 28th March 2012
        International Fund for Agricultural Development, Rome
                                                            .
Introduction (1)
               Aims of Platform Knowledge Piece 3


The aim of this Platform Knowledge
  Piece (PKP) is:

• to improve our understanding of
  the role of the private sector in
  agricultural and rural
  development; and to

• propose practical and operational
  measures for donors to engage
  effectively with the private sector
  to leverage poverty reduction at
  scale.

2
Introduction (2)
                                                Research methods

Activity                             Research method
Country case studies for Tanzania,   Primary and secondary analysis by
Ghana, Peru, Vietnam, Thailand       in-country research teams



Overview of public policy towards    Country case studies and
private sector                       conceptual insights from secondary
                                     data
Global survey of private sector      Secondary data
activity
Donor survey                         12 telephone interviews, website
                                     searches, evaluations


Synthesis                            Workshop and desk exercise



3
Sources of investment in
                      agriculture in developing countries

                                         Low & Lower    Upper Middle
                                        Middle Income      Income
                                          Bangladesh      Argentina
Data sources used in analysis:
                                             Bolivia         Brazil
1.   Total agricultural investment in        Egypt           China
     agriculture estimated from           El Salvador     Costa Rica
     FAOstats on agricultural capital       Ethiopia        Jordan
     stock
                                               Fiji      Kazakhstan
2.   Public expenditure: IFRI SPEED           India      Kyrgyz Rep.
     data for 64 countries                 Indonesia      Mauritius
3.   FDI: UNCTAD for 31 of the 64            Malawi         Mexico
     countries                              Moldova         Oman
4.   Official aid: OECD DAC adapted         Morocco        Panama
     by PKP2                                Pakistan       Thailand
5.   Domestic private sector(s): the      Philippines       Tunisia
     residual (i.e. 1 minus 2, 3 & 4)         Syria         Turkey
                                            Uganda
                                            Vanuatu
                                            Zambia

4
Results for Developing Countries
              200


              180


              160


              140


              120
US$ Billion




              100


               80


               60


               40


               20


                0
                1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                             Domestic Private Sector Investment   FDI    Public Expenditure   ODA
Source of investment:
                                         Conclusions


• Overall value of agricultural investment has risen
  between 1980 and 2007
• International flows are small with tiny FDI increasing
  fast and small ODA decreasing in share
• Domestic private sector investment dominates but it’s
  share of total investment has fallen from 75% in 1981
  to 61% in 2007
• Public investment is increasing fast and by 2007 had
  increased to 35% of total investment
• Main conclusion for donors aid is a very small part of
  picture and leveraging domestic private sector
  investment is necessary to have impact

6
Rural areas are in the midst of a
                      profound transformation (1)


• Dynamism of
  agricultural value       Numbers of major supermarkets in Thailand

  chains output growth
  and non-farm economy
• Domestic demand in
  South is leading to
  shorter and higher
  quality supply chains
• Vertical coordination
  (informal and contract
  farming)

7
Rural areas are in the midst of a
                      profound transformation (2)

                                                         Maize, rice, and wheat export prices, weekly from Jan 2005 to Feb 2012


                                    1200
• Better informed value                                           Rice, Thai A1 Super


  chains                            1000                          Rice, Thai 100% B


• Change in balance                       800                     Maize, US No.2




                          US$ per tonne
                                                                  Yellow

  between supply and                      600
                                                                  Wheat, US No. 2
                                                                  HRW

  demand                                  400

• Broad based growth
                                          200
  through agricultural
  development                              0
                                                Jan-05



                                                                           Jan-06



                                                                                                      Jan-07



                                                                                                                                 Jan-08



                                                                                                                                                            Jan-09



                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-12
                                                         May-05
                                                                  Sep-05


                                                                                    May-06
                                                                                             Sep-06


                                                                                                               May-07
                                                                                                                        Sep-07


                                                                                                                                          May-08
                                                                                                                                                   Sep-08


                                                                                                                                                                     May-09
                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                May-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-11
                                                         Source: With data from FAO ESC




8
Questions & Answers!




9

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The strategic role of the private sector in agriculture and rural development (Part 1)

  • 1. The strategic role of the private sector in agriculture and rural development Platform Knowledge Piece (Part 1) Jonathan Mitchell Wednesday 28th March 2012 International Fund for Agricultural Development, Rome .
  • 2. Introduction (1) Aims of Platform Knowledge Piece 3 The aim of this Platform Knowledge Piece (PKP) is: • to improve our understanding of the role of the private sector in agricultural and rural development; and to • propose practical and operational measures for donors to engage effectively with the private sector to leverage poverty reduction at scale. 2
  • 3. Introduction (2) Research methods Activity Research method Country case studies for Tanzania, Primary and secondary analysis by Ghana, Peru, Vietnam, Thailand in-country research teams Overview of public policy towards Country case studies and private sector conceptual insights from secondary data Global survey of private sector Secondary data activity Donor survey 12 telephone interviews, website searches, evaluations Synthesis Workshop and desk exercise 3
  • 4. Sources of investment in agriculture in developing countries Low & Lower Upper Middle Middle Income Income Bangladesh Argentina Data sources used in analysis: Bolivia Brazil 1. Total agricultural investment in Egypt China agriculture estimated from El Salvador Costa Rica FAOstats on agricultural capital Ethiopia Jordan stock Fiji Kazakhstan 2. Public expenditure: IFRI SPEED India Kyrgyz Rep. data for 64 countries Indonesia Mauritius 3. FDI: UNCTAD for 31 of the 64 Malawi Mexico countries Moldova Oman 4. Official aid: OECD DAC adapted Morocco Panama by PKP2 Pakistan Thailand 5. Domestic private sector(s): the Philippines Tunisia residual (i.e. 1 minus 2, 3 & 4) Syria Turkey Uganda Vanuatu Zambia 4
  • 5. Results for Developing Countries 200 180 160 140 120 US$ Billion 100 80 60 40 20 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Domestic Private Sector Investment FDI Public Expenditure ODA
  • 6. Source of investment: Conclusions • Overall value of agricultural investment has risen between 1980 and 2007 • International flows are small with tiny FDI increasing fast and small ODA decreasing in share • Domestic private sector investment dominates but it’s share of total investment has fallen from 75% in 1981 to 61% in 2007 • Public investment is increasing fast and by 2007 had increased to 35% of total investment • Main conclusion for donors aid is a very small part of picture and leveraging domestic private sector investment is necessary to have impact 6
  • 7. Rural areas are in the midst of a profound transformation (1) • Dynamism of agricultural value Numbers of major supermarkets in Thailand chains output growth and non-farm economy • Domestic demand in South is leading to shorter and higher quality supply chains • Vertical coordination (informal and contract farming) 7
  • 8. Rural areas are in the midst of a profound transformation (2) Maize, rice, and wheat export prices, weekly from Jan 2005 to Feb 2012 1200 • Better informed value Rice, Thai A1 Super chains 1000 Rice, Thai 100% B • Change in balance 800 Maize, US No.2 US$ per tonne Yellow between supply and 600 Wheat, US No. 2 HRW demand 400 • Broad based growth 200 through agricultural development 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 May-05 Sep-05 May-06 Sep-06 May-07 Sep-07 May-08 Sep-08 May-09 Sep-09 May-10 Sep-10 May-11 Sep-11 Source: With data from FAO ESC 8