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Vision and Plans for
    Coming smart Society


     Kim, Seang-Tae
              President
National Information Society Agency
Seang-Tae KIM                          kimst@nia.or.kr

                                        •  President, Inaugurated on May 19, 2008 and appointed 11th
                                           President of NIA
                                        •  Dean, Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan
                                           University
                                        •  President, Global e-Policy & e-Government Institute
                                        •  Member of Joint Evaluation Committee for Local Government,
                                           Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs
                                        •  Advisor to Presidential transition committee
                                        •  Member of Evaluation Committee, Civil Service Commission
                                        •  Chairmen of Committee of World e-Government Award and
                                           challenge
                                        •  Policy Advisor to Committee on Science, Technology,
                                           Information and Telecommunication, National Assembly
                                        •  President, National Future Policy Institute, National Future
                                           Policy Forum
                                        •  President of International Research Cooperation Facilitation
                                           Committee, Korea Research Foundation
                                        •  president of Future Politics and Governance Committee, World
                                           Future Society Forum
                                        •  Advisory board member of I-ways, Journal of E-Government
                                           Policy and Regulation
  Specialty                             •  Member of Committee of U-city under Prime Minister’s Office
                                        •  Member of National Informatization Strategy Committee
• Innovation & e-Government,            •  President of Association of National ICT agencies
• National Competitiveness & IT Policy •  Co-chair of Future Network 2020 Forum
                                                  -2-
• Foresight, Digital Convergence policy •  Commissioner of ITU-UNESCO Global Broadband Commission
CONTENTS

I     Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift


II    Smart Revolution and IT Potential


III   Preparing for Future




                       3
I   Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift




                      4
Social Paradigm Shift

                  Agricultural                     Industrial                        Information                       Smart
                    Society                         Society                            Society                         Society

       Agricultural                             •  Capitalism                         •  Post-Fordism (



                                                                                                                        ?
       Revolution •  Patriarchy  Industrial •  Fordism (mass p                                              Smart
                                                                          Information small quantity
Primitive         •  Communities Revolution                                                               Revolution
                                                   roduction)              Revolution    batch producti
                  •  Traditional so
 Society                                        •  Vertical bureauc                      on)
                     ciety
                                                   racy                               •  Network organ
                                                                                         ization


      Agricultural                 Industrial                         Information
                                                                                                    Smart Technology
      Technology                  Technology                          Technology




                      Technology d                   Co-evolution of
                      evelopment                 technology and society

                                                                      Change in society




                                                                      5
Analysis of Global Megatrend
          Based on 51 different foresight research sources produced by worldwide gov
          ernments, agencies and experts (forecast of 2020 on average)




                                                                 25 resources analyzed by Korea
US National Intelligenc 
                              EU governments including 
         n government and public/priva      
                              UK, Germany and Finland,
e Council (NIC), RAND         multinational companies in
                                                                 te research institutions (Presid           
Corporation, MIT, Gartn                                          ential Council for Future and Vi
                              cluding Shell, Siemens, etc.                                              Japanese Ministry of Ec
er, etc.                                                         sion, KISTEP, KISDI, SERI, LGE
                                                                 RI, etc.)                              onomy, Trade and Indu
                                                                                                        stry, Committee on Jap
                                                                                                        an’s Innovation Strateg
                                 International organization                                             y, Nomura Research Ins
                                 s such as UN, World Future                                             titute, etc.)
                                  Society, and International                                            
                                 Energy Agency (IEA)
                                                                                                        Australian 2020 Summit




                            15 Megatrends of Future society
                                                             6
4 Keywords of Future
    15 Megatrends of Future Society
     Society                                                     Keywords
S    •  Change in population structure
     •  Polarization
     •  Network society
                                                                Human-orient
    Technology
     •  Virtual intelligence space
                                                                   ated
T    •  Convergence of technologies
     •  Robots
                                                                   Ageing
    Economy                                                      Population
E    •  Economy serving citizens’ well-being/ emotion/welfare
     •  Knowledge-based economy
     •  Emergence of global talents

    Environment
                                                                 Risk Society
      •  Climate change and environmental pollution
E     •  Energy crisis
      •  Increased side-effects of technology development
                                                                Technology De
     Politics                                                     velopment
P     •  Globalization
      •  Increased threats to safety
      •  South-North unification
                                                      7
Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society

                        “Dream Society”                                   “High concept, High touch”
                       Society where imagination and                          Moving to the ‘Conceptual Age’ w
                           emotions are important                             here creativity, emotions and intu
                                                                                     ition are important
                 ※ Elements of future talents: creativit
                                                               Daniel Pink ※ High concept capability to create beauty a
    Rolph Jensen y, teamwork, motivation, stimulation,
                                                                (Futurist) nd high touch capability to empathize with o
(Dream Company CIO)          high spirits
                                                                                        thers are required




                                       Human-oriented societ
                                       y with emphasis on cre
                                               ativity

                 “Pro-sumer economy”
                                                                             “Age of vita capitalism”
                 Individual pro-sumers who are produc                     Coming of the ‘Age of vita capitalism
                 ers and consumers change the econo                        ’ where digilog system combining di
                 mic system innovatively and create ex                      gital and analog systems is the key
 Alvin Toffler
  (Futurist)                 plosive wealth
                                                               Lee O-Young                concept
                                                                 Professor

                                                           8
Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society




                  9
Keyword 2: Ageing society

   Ageing Korea: Population of 65 and older will reach 38.2% by 2050
  ※ Population of 65 and older was only 3.8% in 1980; but it is expected to reach 38.2% by 2050 with 1.4 economically
    active person aged 15~64 having to support 1 senior citizen (2010 Social Indicators of Korea, Statistics Korea)


                                                      Younger Generation
                                                                                            ※ Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ in the 1990s was
                                                  •  Increased burden (supporting senior      mainly caused by negative economic
                                                    citizens, national pension, etc.)         outlook from ageing and active
                                                  •  Increased burden on social security      consumption by citizens


                                                  Increased generational conflicts
                       Finance                                                                       Industry
          •  Decreased tax revenue and                                                      Change in generational structure
            increased spending on social
            security
                                                            Ageing                         Change in household consumption
                                                                                                        pattern
             Increased budget deficits
                                                                                           Reorganized industrial structure

                                                       Macroeconomics
                                                     Savings rate↓ Labor force↓

                                                   Investment↓ Household income↓
*’Ageing society’ if share of the elderly in to
tal population is 7% or larger; ‘Aged society     Decreased economic growth rate                                 * Source: LGERI
’ if 14% or larger; and ‘Post-aged society’ if
20% or larger
Keyword 2: Ageing Society
                     [Population share by age group]
                                                             Warning!
                                                                                                         (Rapid budget increase
                                                                                                               on ageing)
                                                                                65 or older
                                                                                15~64         S&P says Korea might face the same fiscal trou
                                                                                0~14                ble by 2050 as Greece is now in.
                                                                                80 or older
                                                                                                Korea’s net government debt
                                                                                                forecast (in % in GDP)



  Source: Statistics Korea (2010)
  Number of economically active population (15~64) is forecasted to decrease from 2016.
  Age group of those in 30~40s, making up the major part of labor force, already started
  to decrease in number since 2006.

(x 10,000 persons)                             2016
                                            (36.19 mil)
                                                                 Economically active
                                                                    (age 15~64)

                                                                                                                                 Source: S&P
                                       2006                                                An international credit assessment agency, S&P for
                                    (16.75 mil)
                                                                                           ecasts that the increased spending on the ageing s
                                                                 Age 30~40s
               ociety will increase the share of net government de
                                                                                           bt in GDP from 18.0% in 2010 to 48.0% in 2040, a
                                                                                           nd even further to 137.2% in 2050. (S&P, ‘Global
                                                                                           Ageing 2011’)


  Source: Statistics Korea (2009)                                   11                                       Source: Munhwa Daily (2011)
Keyword 3: High-risk Society
 Uncertainties that Korea might face

§  Low birth rate and entrance into post-aged society
§  Climate change and large-scale disasters
§  Increased social conflicts and cost due to polarization,                  Along with efforts to
    multi-culturalism, etc.                                               overcome the current risks,
§  Foreign exchange market crisis and trade war                           a strategy to forecast the
                                                                          next 10 years or 100 years
§  Increased price of raw materials and energy
                                                                           from now and change the
§  Lack of jobs and unbalanced manpower supply and de                      risks to opportunities is
    mand                                                                            important
§  Expansion of new diseases and epidemics
§  Unification and geographical uncertainties
                (Adapted from ‘UN State of the Future’ – 2018 Korea)


           Modern society is a risk society                 Prepare for the black swan,
           where uncertainties and risks                    the enormous impact of the
           caused by modernization                          highly improbable
           influence the global
           environment as a whole
                   (Adapted from Urlich Beck)                          (Adapted from Nassim Nicholas Taleb )

                                                       12
Keyword 3: High-risk Society
           Korea is geographically located in a high-risk area where there is always p
           ossible economic risk increase due to the US-China relationship and North
           Korea’s nuclear threat


Geographically high      Increased volatility in financial markets
      er risk in
 Korea due to inten
sified hegemonic co
 mpetition between                                                               Worse con
                       Reduced FDI        Agitated             Lower intern      ditions for
    US and China
                       and lack of i     foreign in            ational credit    foreign loa
                        nvestment         vestors                  rating        ns and rapi
                                                                                 d cost incr
                                                                                    eases
                                                                                                      Real econom        Impediment
                                                                                                      y stagnation       to economic
                                                                                  Shrinking con                             growth
                                          Falling st             Rising exc       sumption fro
                                          ock price              hange rate        m inflation
Stronger efforts b                             s
  y North Korea
 to build military t
                                                       More difficulties for the domestic industr
ension using nucle     Reduced market capita
                                                        y to achieve long-term export contracts
    ar weapons         lization and more diffic
                                                       despite rising exchange rates because of
                        ulties in raising capital
                                                        foreign importers feeling more insecure
                                 finance
                                                               about the Korean market

                                                                                                    Source: SERI, KIET, KIEP, News
                                                                      13                            Articles, A. T. Kearney Analysis
Keyword 3: High-risk Society
                                                                     < No. of brutal crimes >                   < No. of persons
   < Climate change in Korea with forecast>
                                                                                                                 with officially
                                                                                                                  designated
                                                                                                                   infectious
                                                                                                                   diseases>




            (* Source: National Institute of Meteorological Re
                                                 search 2010)
                                                                        (* Source: National Police Agenc
                                                                                                                      (* Source: Ministry of Health and
                                                                                                 y 2010)           (*        :            , 2009.06)
                                                                                                                           Welfare, MK Business News,
                                                                                                                                              2009.06)

< Growth rate of foreigners residing in            < Real and potential growth                             < Nominal and real price of oil
          OECD countries>                              rate of Korea, %>                                        (in USD/barrel)>
                        Average increase rat                            Arrows represent average             Nominal price      4th Oil-shock?
                                                                         potential growth rate by
                        e for 2000~2008
                                each stage
                                                                                                             Real price
                                                                                                                             3rd Oil-shock


                                                                                                                     2nd Oil-shock
Korea
Spain
Italy
Greece
Czech
Portugal
Slovakia
UK
Hungary
Norway
Finland
Japan
Luxembourg
Denmark
Austria
Switzerland
Sweden
Netherlands
Germany




                                                          Poten     Real
                                                          tial



                                                     (* Source: Bank of Korea, Hyundai Research       (* Source: Hyundai Research Institute, MK Busi
(* Source: OECD, UN, MK Business News 2010.12)
                                                           Institute, MK Business News 2009.09)                                ness News 2011.03)
Keyword 4 : High-technology




  Calculating   Database   Online       Ubiquitous   Intelligence


                           ICT development

                               15
4 Keywords and Future Society
                                                                             Risk Society
                                                                             : Cost and budget increases


                                                                  • Manpower decrease
                                                                  • Tax revenue decrease
                                                                  • Budget deficit increase

                                        Ageing
• Emphasis on hum
 anism, vita capital                   Population                                                • Increased economic,
                                                                                                    social, environment
• Future talents: m
                                                                                                  al and political risks
 ust be creative
                        Human                                         High-risk                  • Rapid increase in cos
                                                                                                  t for risk manageme
                       orientated                                      society                    nt and recovery
                                                                                                 •  Increased impact of
                                                                                                    uncertainties

                                        Technology
                                       development

 People Power Society
 : Creating new values by adding kn
                                        • Sustained smart revolution
 owledge and capacity of individuals    • Network improvement (mobile, social and cloud networks)
                                        • Reduced restrictions of time and place (virtual space, augmented reality)
                                        • Improvement and development toward human-like technologies
Paradigm Shift in Government Operation i
   n Future society
       After the worldwide financial crisis, each country is now facing a ‘bu
       dget deficit’ caused by massive government spending in the past
       Korea is also bound to experience a greater deficit from the need for
       providing quality services for citizens in the ageing and risk society




                    Traditional Gove
                    rnment-led Stat
                     e Management




Open government
operation based o
                    •  Increases citizen rights and roles based on human-oriented creativity
 n people power     •  Achieves a low-cost and high-quality country led by creative citizens
Society of People Power




                      The next age of government : David cameron
Future Government: Power of People
Shift to a new government operation paradigm by providing rights to people and
achieving an open government that understands demand and behavior of people

                                                      Information             Smart Society
Agricultural Society        Industrial Society          Society            (Post-Information Society)

                                                     Post-Fordism (small


                                                                                     ?
      Patriarchy                 Capitalism           quantity batch pro
    Communities          Fordism (mass production)         duction)
  Traditional society       Vertical bureaucracy     Network organizatio
                                                              n




    Feudal Society
          Industrial Society
                 Smart Society

                                        20
II   Smart Revolution and IT Potential




                   21
Rapid ICT Development
                                                                                First e-mail (Tomlinson) (1972)
Arpanet test by US Dept. of Defense UCLA-Stanford Data Exchange (1969.10)




                                                                                  (1982)



                                                                Worldwide Internet users 22 billion by 2013
                                                                  (Forrester Research Internet Population Forecast(2009.7))
                               Mosaic (1993)
                        WWW (1990)          Netscape (1994)


                        First Webserver (1990)
                           (Tim Berners-Lee)




     (2004)
                              (2005)             (2007)
                                                                   (2009)
                                                                                                           (2010)
                                                    22
Smart Revolution: Smart Device
            Rapid diffusion of smart phones, tablet PCs and Smart TVs

  Mobile revolution through smart devices: “Internet on a chair”à “Internet on the move”

   n       Rapid expansion of mobile life regardless of social class, generation and job
            n     “A day starts and ends with smart phone”
            n     Has become a social trend (new term ‘mobile-blind’)

             General Users                                           Politicians                                  Businessmen
     Lives, works, communicates and ente                    Publicizes policies and communicates                Adopts mobile office system
            rtains with smart phone                                      with voters
                       Socialize                                                                                             •  Remote   working
                                                                           President Obama is a s        [Case of IBM]
         View videos               Check traffic                                                                             •  Interconnection to i
                                                                              mart phone lover                                 ntra-system
                                                                                                                             •  All-time response t
Read books                                Find roa
                                                ds                                                                             o customers
                                                                                                                             •  Faster decision ma
                                                                                                                               king

Listen to
                                              Search rest                                                    25,000 IBM workers are using sma
   music                                                       Used smart phone to publicize his polic    l 
                                              aurants       l 
                                                                                                            rt phones for work
                                                              ies and collect opinions during the 2008
                                                               election                                   l  The number is expected to reach
                                           Shop                                                               more than 100,000 by 2012
                                                            l Has been using a specially manufacture
         Play ga                                              d smart phone since inauguration
            mes
                    Monitor exe
                           rcise
Smart Revolution: Media Evolution
  Traditional media evolves to social media after going through ICT and smart device development

Traditional                     Internet m                        Beginning of                          Social web
 media
                         edia
                             revolution




                                                              Source: Social web and future trend (Jeong Ji-hoon, Head of IT Convergence Lab,
                                                              Myongji Hospital
                                                                Used as main channel for providing public services, delivering emergency al
                                                                                           erts and in elections
                                                                                                                   San Francisco Customer Servi
                                                                                                                   ce Center ‘SF311’ through wh
                                                                                                                   ich citizens can file SNS applic
                                                                                                                   ations in cases of emergency,
                     Active two-way com                                                                             fire or road damage
                     munication using di
                         verse media
                                                                                                                                 Twitter of British
                                                                                                                                 Monarchy




                                                       UK encouraged citizens to vote throug
                                                       h SNS in Prime Minister Election
                                                                        24                               California Online Innovation Forum
Source : Brian Solism
Smart Revolution: Business Innovation
       IT Evolution                      Change in Buying                         Platform Expansion                    Business Innovation
Rapid change of technology featur
                                             Patterns                         Expansion from single platform, one-wa
                                                                                                                       Business value focus shifted from t
                                      Extension of buying trend segmen                                                 echnology and quantity expansion
es to become online, intelligent an                                           y communication to integrated platform
                                      ted into individualization, customiz                                             to emotion and quality improveme
          d converged                                                               , two-way communication
                                                   ation, etc.                                                                         nt




Diverse business chan                 New business concept                        Improved business pr                 Value-oriented busines
         nels                                  s                                      ofit models                                ses


•  Facilitation of Internet an        •  Facilitation of smart shopping           •  Boom in Internet and mobil        •  Active customer-oriented
   d mobile services                     , one-person business, cloud s              e ads                                 marketing
•  Introduction of converge              ourcing, etc.                            •  Coming of the cross-media         •  Expansion of businesses
   nce businesses                                                                    age                                  contributing to society




                                                                             25
Smart Revolution: Customized Services
                                       Individual
    Enjoys any customized service he/she wants regardless of time and place

                     Integrated Plat
Content & Service
        form




                                           26
Smart Revolution: New Life Style



                                                Policy participation
Leisure information
                 Traffic information
                                                                            Cultural life information




                                                                                       Job information




                                       Sports facilities i             One-stop civil service
              Tour information           nformation
                                               27
Smart Revolution: Future Roles of IT
  ICT is the main source of energy that leads the megatrend such as the econo
   mic society, creates values, and changes the social system right from the fou
   ndation

  It is also the key means to actively responding to future uncertainties and ri
   sks

                                              Create/Expand Growth Engines


                                     Agility,
                                   Convergence


                         Network                   Intelligence
                                   IT Potential
Manage open government
                                                                  Foster creative talents
                             Two-way       Overcome time
                                           and space limits


                                              Achieve smart welf
                     Create new values        are society
                                         28
Smart Revolution: Another ICT Leap




                                            New Paradigm Needed
                                                                 Smart Society Para
                         Information Society Paradigm                  digm
                                                         NOW

                                                       Dawn of Smart R
                                                          evolution
   Industrial Society Paradigm




      Introduction         Growth           Maturity           Another leap


   Informatization 1.0           Informatization 2.0            Informatization 3.0

                                       29
Framework of Smart Society


                             Smart Life



                 Smart Gov         Smart Biz




    Service Infrastructure              Social Infrastructure
   Network      Service/System    Prediction   Governance   Law
III   Preparing for Future




                    31
Future Values
   Opinion leaders in Korea selected “happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice and
   fairness’ and ‘creativity and imagination’ as new values of the future




An in-depth interview on ‘Fut                                Justice & Fai
ure Korea’ and ‘The Roles of I       Happiness
                                                                rness
CT in the Future’ was carried
out with 10 opinion leaders (
      NIA, 2010. 9~11)


                                              Future values


                                                               Creativity &
                                     Sustainability
                                                               Imagination




                                       32
Future Values and New Strategies
         IT-based strategies are needed to achieve such future values – ‘happiness’,
          ‘sustainability’, ‘justice & fairness’, and ‘creativity & imagination’

 Strategy 1                                                          Strategy 2
 Citizen Happine                                                       Growing Together
 ss
•  Smart government                                                 •  Sharing, contribution
•  Smart work                                                       •  Supporting SMEs
                                      Ageing                          (standard framework)
•  u-health, u-welfare
                                     Population                     •  One-person business


                         Human-                            Risk
                         oriented
                                          IT              society

                                     Technology
                                    development
  Strategy 3                                                         Strategy 4
  Creative Powerho                                                    Sustainable Deve
  use                                                                 lopment
   •  Smart talent                                                  •  Knowledge platform
   •  Smart citizen                                                 •  Smart Biz
   •  Smart learning                         33                     •  Green IT
New Strategic Framework for Future Develo
pment
                            IT-based open platform
                                             Smart
                            Smart            sharing
                          Government
                                                            Standard
                Smart                                      Framework
                Work
  New                                                                            Open
 Values                                  Ageing                    1-person    Innovation
                                       Population                  Business
          u-health,
          u-welfare              Human           Risk
                                oriented        Society
                                                                   Knowledge
                                       Technology                   Platform
            Smart                     Development
           Learning

                                                               Smart Biz
                      Smart
                      Citizen
                                                    Green IT
                                 Smart Talent


                            IT-based open platform
1. National Strategy of Platform for Creative In
novation



   Facilitation of ‘open innovation’ and ‘collaborative creation’




             Open platform applied to the entire society


                 Integration            Openness
                 Connection              Sharing

                Participation            Creation
                Collaboration           Innovation
2. Platform Government for Advanced Administ
ration
                   < Change in Government Roles >
    Agricultural         Industrial       Information           Smart
      Society             Society           Society             Society
    Mobilize and
                       Plan and create     Mediate and          “Create
     distribute
                           market        provide services        values”
     resources

               Government/Public Sector Innovation


       Open                                                   Open
     Innovation                                             Platform




  Need for expansion of an open platform strate
         gy in the entire administration
3. Open Knowledge Ecosystem for New Values
Platform – main source of
competitiveness in the sm
         art age
                                                                    •  Transform into a platform government
                                              Government            by expanding use of public information a
                                                                    nd government services
                                                                    •  Establish a highly valued platform thro
                                                                    ugh government engagement




                                                Open innovation
                     Industries                Collaborative crea             Citizens
                                                      tion



      •  Create new services by actively using open go               •  Create group intelligence synergies by providing and
      vernment information                                           sharing new ideas based on active participation
      •  Innovate as global platform service industries              •  Communicate with government and build a framewor
      by providing creative platform                                 k by actively using government platform service




 What is a platform strategy?
 Value-oriented ecosystem strategy that integrates diverse ideas and knowledge and produces new
 services by providing people the opportunities to challenge and create
 Platform itself influences as group power is accumulated through the platform
4. Open Contribution: Sharing Platform
Based on open contribution and sharing platform, participating organizations can pra
ctice beneficiary-oriented social contribution and sharing service by sharing informati
on with others and facilitating collaboration


                                                                  Smart Angels Move
                                                                                                                                      Relevant Organi
             Sponsor
                                               ment Council
                                     Inquiry/application of
                                                                                                                Integration of            zations
                                                                                                              volunteer service
                                       volunteer service                                                         information
                                          information

                                                                                                                                   Volunteer organizations
              IT experts
                                                               Volunteer
                                                                                          Service user      Provision of
                                                               participant
                                                                                                          volunteer service
                                        Facilitated
                                       management
                                                              information                 information
                                                                                                            management                  Press/Media
           IT businesses                 backup
                                                                               Sharing
                                                                                                               system

                                                                               platform
                                                                                                                                  Educational organizations
     IT organizations/institutions     Provision of
                                                                             Volunteer service
                                                                                                                Provision of
                                                                                 program
                                        Statistical                                                              statistical
                                                                               information
                                       information                                                              information
                                                                                                                                  Central/local government

              Students                                               Key Projects



                                 Service
           Mentoring
          Ability-sha              Rights-sha         Teaching
                                                                           ring
                    ring
                                               Contribution and sharing platform


                                                                             38
5. Fostering Creative Future Talents: S.M.A.R.T




                       takes Actions

             is a                         pursues
         Multiplayer                    Relationships
                       A smart talent


             knows how to          prepares for
                Share               Tomorrow




                              39
6. Creating Smart Businesses

Diversify business cha             Introduce new busi             Improve business prof                Expand value-oriented
         nnels                        ness concepts                    it models                            businesses
   Facilitated Internet and            Smart shopping, one-               Rapid development of          Customer-oriented marketing,
 mobile services, introduction         person business, and            Internet mobile ads, coming        expansion of businesses
  of convergence businesses          facilitated cloud sourcing          of the age of cross-media          contributing to society



                                 Platform based Open Innovation

                                   Market Drive             Attention Get                                  Target Marke
           Smart Device                                                               Real Time
                                        n                        ter                                             t


               Improve national competitiveness through smart businesses




                       Business Role                                                 Government Role
                                                                         Establish foundation for businesses by supporting f
     Contribute to economic growth by actively utilizi
                                                                         acilitation and preparing for adverse effects
     ng smart IT business strategy                                       •  Support with business facilitating policies and prepare legal
     •    Actively respond to changing business trends
                                                                            means for improvement
     •    Provide diverse products and services to customers             •  Actively apply smart IT business strategies to government se
                                                                  40        rvices
Closing
  Informatization 3.0
                                                     Government 3.0
   IT-based creative         Creative citizens      Smart Government
      powerhouse             leading

Open innovation and coll         People          Smart government based o
  aborative creation                             n individualization, intellige
                                 Power
                                                      nce and platforms

                             Low-cost, high-qu
                               ality country


                        Open knowledge ecosystem bas
             
            ed on smart infrastructure

                            Open Innovation
                              New Values



Creative and Human-oriented Smart Society
- Improving from an IT powerhouse to a smart country guiding the world

                                    41
Thank you
!





            42
    26/30

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Vision and Plans for Coming Smart Society

  • 1. Vision and Plans for Coming smart Society Kim, Seang-Tae President National Information Society Agency
  • 2. Seang-Tae KIM kimst@nia.or.kr •  President, Inaugurated on May 19, 2008 and appointed 11th President of NIA •  Dean, Graduate School of Governance, Sungkyunkwan University •  President, Global e-Policy & e-Government Institute •  Member of Joint Evaluation Committee for Local Government, Ministry of Government Administration and Home Affairs •  Advisor to Presidential transition committee •  Member of Evaluation Committee, Civil Service Commission •  Chairmen of Committee of World e-Government Award and challenge •  Policy Advisor to Committee on Science, Technology, Information and Telecommunication, National Assembly •  President, National Future Policy Institute, National Future Policy Forum •  President of International Research Cooperation Facilitation Committee, Korea Research Foundation •  president of Future Politics and Governance Committee, World Future Society Forum •  Advisory board member of I-ways, Journal of E-Government Policy and Regulation Specialty •  Member of Committee of U-city under Prime Minister’s Office •  Member of National Informatization Strategy Committee • Innovation & e-Government, •  President of Association of National ICT agencies • National Competitiveness & IT Policy •  Co-chair of Future Network 2020 Forum -2- • Foresight, Digital Convergence policy •  Commissioner of ITU-UNESCO Global Broadband Commission
  • 3. CONTENTS I Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift II Smart Revolution and IT Potential III Preparing for Future 3
  • 4. I Megatrend of Future Society and Paradigm Shift 4
  • 5. Social Paradigm Shift Agricultural Industrial Information Smart Society Society Society Society Agricultural •  Capitalism •  Post-Fordism ( ? Revolution •  Patriarchy Industrial •  Fordism (mass p Smart Information small quantity Primitive •  Communities Revolution Revolution roduction) Revolution batch producti •  Traditional so Society •  Vertical bureauc on) ciety racy •  Network organ ization Agricultural Industrial Information Smart Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology d Co-evolution of evelopment technology and society Change in society 5
  • 6. Analysis of Global Megatrend Based on 51 different foresight research sources produced by worldwide gov ernments, agencies and experts (forecast of 2020 on average) 25 resources analyzed by Korea US National Intelligenc EU governments including n government and public/priva UK, Germany and Finland, e Council (NIC), RAND multinational companies in te research institutions (Presid Corporation, MIT, Gartn ential Council for Future and Vi cluding Shell, Siemens, etc. Japanese Ministry of Ec er, etc. sion, KISTEP, KISDI, SERI, LGE RI, etc.) onomy, Trade and Indu stry, Committee on Jap an’s Innovation Strateg International organization y, Nomura Research Ins s such as UN, World Future titute, etc.) Society, and International Energy Agency (IEA) Australian 2020 Summit 15 Megatrends of Future society 6
  • 7. 4 Keywords of Future 15 Megatrends of Future Society Society Keywords S •  Change in population structure •  Polarization •  Network society Human-orient Technology •  Virtual intelligence space ated T •  Convergence of technologies •  Robots Ageing Economy Population E •  Economy serving citizens’ well-being/ emotion/welfare •  Knowledge-based economy •  Emergence of global talents Environment Risk Society •  Climate change and environmental pollution E •  Energy crisis •  Increased side-effects of technology development Technology De Politics velopment P •  Globalization •  Increased threats to safety •  South-North unification 7
  • 8. Keyword 1: Human-oriented Society “Dream Society” “High concept, High touch” Society where imagination and Moving to the ‘Conceptual Age’ w emotions are important here creativity, emotions and intu ition are important ※ Elements of future talents: creativit Daniel Pink ※ High concept capability to create beauty a Rolph Jensen y, teamwork, motivation, stimulation, (Futurist) nd high touch capability to empathize with o (Dream Company CIO) high spirits thers are required Human-oriented societ y with emphasis on cre ativity “Pro-sumer economy” “Age of vita capitalism” Individual pro-sumers who are produc Coming of the ‘Age of vita capitalism ers and consumers change the econo ’ where digilog system combining di mic system innovatively and create ex gital and analog systems is the key Alvin Toffler (Futurist) plosive wealth Lee O-Young concept Professor 8
  • 10. Keyword 2: Ageing society Ageing Korea: Population of 65 and older will reach 38.2% by 2050 ※ Population of 65 and older was only 3.8% in 1980; but it is expected to reach 38.2% by 2050 with 1.4 economically active person aged 15~64 having to support 1 senior citizen (2010 Social Indicators of Korea, Statistics Korea) Younger Generation ※ Japan’s ‘Lost Decade’ in the 1990s was •  Increased burden (supporting senior mainly caused by negative economic citizens, national pension, etc.) outlook from ageing and active •  Increased burden on social security consumption by citizens Increased generational conflicts Finance Industry •  Decreased tax revenue and Change in generational structure increased spending on social security Ageing Change in household consumption pattern Increased budget deficits Reorganized industrial structure Macroeconomics Savings rate↓ Labor force↓ Investment↓ Household income↓ *’Ageing society’ if share of the elderly in to tal population is 7% or larger; ‘Aged society Decreased economic growth rate * Source: LGERI ’ if 14% or larger; and ‘Post-aged society’ if 20% or larger
  • 11. Keyword 2: Ageing Society [Population share by age group] Warning! (Rapid budget increase on ageing) 65 or older 15~64 S&P says Korea might face the same fiscal trou 0~14 ble by 2050 as Greece is now in. 80 or older Korea’s net government debt forecast (in % in GDP) Source: Statistics Korea (2010) Number of economically active population (15~64) is forecasted to decrease from 2016. Age group of those in 30~40s, making up the major part of labor force, already started to decrease in number since 2006. (x 10,000 persons) 2016 (36.19 mil) Economically active (age 15~64) Source: S&P 2006 An international credit assessment agency, S&P for (16.75 mil) ecasts that the increased spending on the ageing s Age 30~40s ociety will increase the share of net government de bt in GDP from 18.0% in 2010 to 48.0% in 2040, a nd even further to 137.2% in 2050. (S&P, ‘Global Ageing 2011’) Source: Statistics Korea (2009) 11 Source: Munhwa Daily (2011)
  • 12. Keyword 3: High-risk Society Uncertainties that Korea might face §  Low birth rate and entrance into post-aged society §  Climate change and large-scale disasters §  Increased social conflicts and cost due to polarization, Along with efforts to multi-culturalism, etc. overcome the current risks, §  Foreign exchange market crisis and trade war a strategy to forecast the next 10 years or 100 years §  Increased price of raw materials and energy from now and change the §  Lack of jobs and unbalanced manpower supply and de risks to opportunities is mand important §  Expansion of new diseases and epidemics §  Unification and geographical uncertainties (Adapted from ‘UN State of the Future’ – 2018 Korea) Modern society is a risk society Prepare for the black swan, where uncertainties and risks the enormous impact of the caused by modernization highly improbable influence the global environment as a whole (Adapted from Urlich Beck) (Adapted from Nassim Nicholas Taleb ) 12
  • 13. Keyword 3: High-risk Society Korea is geographically located in a high-risk area where there is always p ossible economic risk increase due to the US-China relationship and North Korea’s nuclear threat Geographically high Increased volatility in financial markets er risk in Korea due to inten sified hegemonic co mpetition between Worse con Reduced FDI Agitated Lower intern ditions for US and China and lack of i foreign in ational credit foreign loa nvestment vestors rating ns and rapi d cost incr eases Real econom Impediment y stagnation to economic Shrinking con growth Falling st Rising exc sumption fro ock price hange rate m inflation Stronger efforts b s y North Korea to build military t More difficulties for the domestic industr ension using nucle Reduced market capita y to achieve long-term export contracts ar weapons lization and more diffic despite rising exchange rates because of ulties in raising capital foreign importers feeling more insecure finance about the Korean market Source: SERI, KIET, KIEP, News 13 Articles, A. T. Kearney Analysis
  • 14. Keyword 3: High-risk Society < No. of brutal crimes > < No. of persons < Climate change in Korea with forecast> with officially designated infectious diseases> (* Source: National Institute of Meteorological Re search 2010) (* Source: National Police Agenc (* Source: Ministry of Health and y 2010) (* : , 2009.06) Welfare, MK Business News, 2009.06) < Growth rate of foreigners residing in < Real and potential growth < Nominal and real price of oil OECD countries> rate of Korea, %> (in USD/barrel)> Average increase rat Arrows represent average Nominal price 4th Oil-shock? potential growth rate by e for 2000~2008 each stage Real price 3rd Oil-shock 2nd Oil-shock Korea Spain Italy Greece Czech Portugal Slovakia UK Hungary Norway Finland Japan Luxembourg Denmark Austria Switzerland Sweden Netherlands Germany Poten Real tial (* Source: Bank of Korea, Hyundai Research (* Source: Hyundai Research Institute, MK Busi (* Source: OECD, UN, MK Business News 2010.12) Institute, MK Business News 2009.09) ness News 2011.03)
  • 15. Keyword 4 : High-technology Calculating Database Online Ubiquitous Intelligence ICT development 15
  • 16. 4 Keywords and Future Society Risk Society : Cost and budget increases • Manpower decrease • Tax revenue decrease • Budget deficit increase Ageing • Emphasis on hum anism, vita capital Population • Increased economic, social, environment • Future talents: m al and political risks ust be creative Human High-risk • Rapid increase in cos t for risk manageme orientated society nt and recovery •  Increased impact of uncertainties Technology development People Power Society : Creating new values by adding kn • Sustained smart revolution owledge and capacity of individuals • Network improvement (mobile, social and cloud networks) • Reduced restrictions of time and place (virtual space, augmented reality) • Improvement and development toward human-like technologies
  • 17. Paradigm Shift in Government Operation i n Future society After the worldwide financial crisis, each country is now facing a ‘bu dget deficit’ caused by massive government spending in the past Korea is also bound to experience a greater deficit from the need for providing quality services for citizens in the ageing and risk society Traditional Gove rnment-led Stat e Management Open government operation based o •  Increases citizen rights and roles based on human-oriented creativity n people power •  Achieves a low-cost and high-quality country led by creative citizens
  • 18. Society of People Power The next age of government : David cameron
  • 19.
  • 20. Future Government: Power of People Shift to a new government operation paradigm by providing rights to people and achieving an open government that understands demand and behavior of people Information Smart Society Agricultural Society Industrial Society Society (Post-Information Society) Post-Fordism (small ? Patriarchy Capitalism quantity batch pro Communities Fordism (mass production) duction) Traditional society Vertical bureaucracy Network organizatio n Feudal Society Industrial Society Smart Society 20
  • 21. II Smart Revolution and IT Potential 21
  • 22. Rapid ICT Development First e-mail (Tomlinson) (1972) Arpanet test by US Dept. of Defense UCLA-Stanford Data Exchange (1969.10) (1982) Worldwide Internet users 22 billion by 2013 (Forrester Research Internet Population Forecast(2009.7)) Mosaic (1993) WWW (1990) Netscape (1994) First Webserver (1990) (Tim Berners-Lee) (2004) (2005) (2007) (2009) (2010) 22
  • 23. Smart Revolution: Smart Device Rapid diffusion of smart phones, tablet PCs and Smart TVs Mobile revolution through smart devices: “Internet on a chair”à “Internet on the move” n  Rapid expansion of mobile life regardless of social class, generation and job n  “A day starts and ends with smart phone” n  Has become a social trend (new term ‘mobile-blind’) General Users Politicians Businessmen Lives, works, communicates and ente Publicizes policies and communicates Adopts mobile office system rtains with smart phone with voters Socialize •  Remote working President Obama is a s [Case of IBM] View videos Check traffic •  Interconnection to i mart phone lover ntra-system •  All-time response t Read books Find roa ds o customers •  Faster decision ma king Listen to Search rest 25,000 IBM workers are using sma music Used smart phone to publicize his polic l  aurants l  rt phones for work ies and collect opinions during the 2008 election l  The number is expected to reach Shop more than 100,000 by 2012 l Has been using a specially manufacture Play ga d smart phone since inauguration mes Monitor exe rcise
  • 24. Smart Revolution: Media Evolution Traditional media evolves to social media after going through ICT and smart device development Traditional Internet m Beginning of Social web media edia revolution Source: Social web and future trend (Jeong Ji-hoon, Head of IT Convergence Lab, Myongji Hospital Used as main channel for providing public services, delivering emergency al erts and in elections San Francisco Customer Servi ce Center ‘SF311’ through wh ich citizens can file SNS applic ations in cases of emergency, Active two-way com fire or road damage munication using di verse media Twitter of British Monarchy UK encouraged citizens to vote throug h SNS in Prime Minister Election 24 California Online Innovation Forum Source : Brian Solism
  • 25. Smart Revolution: Business Innovation IT Evolution Change in Buying Platform Expansion Business Innovation Rapid change of technology featur Patterns Expansion from single platform, one-wa Business value focus shifted from t Extension of buying trend segmen echnology and quantity expansion es to become online, intelligent an y communication to integrated platform ted into individualization, customiz to emotion and quality improveme d converged , two-way communication ation, etc. nt Diverse business chan New business concept Improved business pr Value-oriented busines nels s ofit models ses •  Facilitation of Internet an •  Facilitation of smart shopping •  Boom in Internet and mobil •  Active customer-oriented d mobile services , one-person business, cloud s e ads marketing •  Introduction of converge ourcing, etc. •  Coming of the cross-media •  Expansion of businesses nce businesses age contributing to society 25
  • 26. Smart Revolution: Customized Services Individual Enjoys any customized service he/she wants regardless of time and place Integrated Plat Content & Service form 26
  • 27. Smart Revolution: New Life Style Policy participation Leisure information Traffic information Cultural life information Job information Sports facilities i One-stop civil service Tour information nformation 27
  • 28. Smart Revolution: Future Roles of IT ICT is the main source of energy that leads the megatrend such as the econo mic society, creates values, and changes the social system right from the fou ndation It is also the key means to actively responding to future uncertainties and ri sks Create/Expand Growth Engines Agility, Convergence Network Intelligence IT Potential Manage open government Foster creative talents Two-way Overcome time and space limits Achieve smart welf Create new values are society 28
  • 29. Smart Revolution: Another ICT Leap New Paradigm Needed Smart Society Para Information Society Paradigm digm NOW Dawn of Smart R evolution Industrial Society Paradigm Introduction Growth Maturity Another leap Informatization 1.0 Informatization 2.0 Informatization 3.0 29
  • 30. Framework of Smart Society Smart Life Smart Gov Smart Biz Service Infrastructure Social Infrastructure Network Service/System Prediction Governance Law
  • 31. III Preparing for Future 31
  • 32. Future Values Opinion leaders in Korea selected “happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice and fairness’ and ‘creativity and imagination’ as new values of the future An in-depth interview on ‘Fut Justice & Fai ure Korea’ and ‘The Roles of I Happiness rness CT in the Future’ was carried out with 10 opinion leaders ( NIA, 2010. 9~11) Future values Creativity & Sustainability Imagination 32
  • 33. Future Values and New Strategies IT-based strategies are needed to achieve such future values – ‘happiness’, ‘sustainability’, ‘justice & fairness’, and ‘creativity & imagination’ Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Citizen Happine Growing Together ss •  Smart government •  Sharing, contribution •  Smart work •  Supporting SMEs Ageing (standard framework) •  u-health, u-welfare Population •  One-person business Human- Risk oriented IT society Technology development Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Creative Powerho Sustainable Deve use lopment •  Smart talent •  Knowledge platform •  Smart citizen •  Smart Biz •  Smart learning 33 •  Green IT
  • 34. New Strategic Framework for Future Develo pment IT-based open platform Smart Smart sharing Government Standard Smart Framework Work New Open Values Ageing 1-person Innovation Population Business u-health, u-welfare Human Risk oriented Society Knowledge Technology Platform Smart Development Learning Smart Biz Smart Citizen Green IT Smart Talent IT-based open platform
  • 35. 1. National Strategy of Platform for Creative In novation Facilitation of ‘open innovation’ and ‘collaborative creation’ Open platform applied to the entire society Integration Openness Connection Sharing Participation Creation Collaboration Innovation
  • 36. 2. Platform Government for Advanced Administ ration < Change in Government Roles > Agricultural Industrial Information Smart Society Society Society Society Mobilize and Plan and create Mediate and “Create distribute market provide services values” resources Government/Public Sector Innovation Open Open Innovation Platform Need for expansion of an open platform strate gy in the entire administration
  • 37. 3. Open Knowledge Ecosystem for New Values Platform – main source of competitiveness in the sm art age •  Transform into a platform government Government by expanding use of public information a nd government services •  Establish a highly valued platform thro ugh government engagement Open innovation Industries Collaborative crea Citizens tion •  Create new services by actively using open go •  Create group intelligence synergies by providing and vernment information sharing new ideas based on active participation •  Innovate as global platform service industries •  Communicate with government and build a framewor by providing creative platform k by actively using government platform service What is a platform strategy? Value-oriented ecosystem strategy that integrates diverse ideas and knowledge and produces new services by providing people the opportunities to challenge and create Platform itself influences as group power is accumulated through the platform
  • 38. 4. Open Contribution: Sharing Platform Based on open contribution and sharing platform, participating organizations can pra ctice beneficiary-oriented social contribution and sharing service by sharing informati on with others and facilitating collaboration Smart Angels Move Relevant Organi Sponsor ment Council Inquiry/application of Integration of zations volunteer service volunteer service information information Volunteer organizations IT experts Volunteer Service user Provision of participant volunteer service Facilitated management information information management Press/Media IT businesses backup Sharing system platform Educational organizations IT organizations/institutions Provision of Volunteer service Provision of program Statistical statistical information information information Central/local government Students Key Projects Service Mentoring Ability-sha Rights-sha Teaching ring ring Contribution and sharing platform 38
  • 39. 5. Fostering Creative Future Talents: S.M.A.R.T takes Actions is a pursues Multiplayer Relationships A smart talent knows how to prepares for Share Tomorrow 39
  • 40. 6. Creating Smart Businesses Diversify business cha Introduce new busi Improve business prof Expand value-oriented nnels ness concepts it models businesses Facilitated Internet and Smart shopping, one- Rapid development of Customer-oriented marketing, mobile services, introduction person business, and Internet mobile ads, coming expansion of businesses of convergence businesses facilitated cloud sourcing of the age of cross-media contributing to society Platform based Open Innovation Market Drive Attention Get Target Marke Smart Device Real Time n ter t Improve national competitiveness through smart businesses Business Role Government Role Establish foundation for businesses by supporting f Contribute to economic growth by actively utilizi acilitation and preparing for adverse effects ng smart IT business strategy •  Support with business facilitating policies and prepare legal •  Actively respond to changing business trends means for improvement •  Provide diverse products and services to customers •  Actively apply smart IT business strategies to government se 40 rvices
  • 41. Closing Informatization 3.0 Government 3.0 IT-based creative Creative citizens Smart Government powerhouse leading Open innovation and coll People Smart government based o aborative creation n individualization, intellige Power nce and platforms Low-cost, high-qu ality country Open knowledge ecosystem bas ed on smart infrastructure Open Innovation New Values Creative and Human-oriented Smart Society - Improving from an IT powerhouse to a smart country guiding the world 41
  • 42. Thank you ! 42 26/30