Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba’s team of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children’s books segment by segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens.

1. Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2012
Published: October, 2011
No. of Pages: 196
Price: $ 3250
Now in its sixth edition, Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2012 continues its
tradition of providing an accurate and independent perspective on where the market for
children’s books is headed as well as analysis of market opportunities and pitfalls. How are
publishers battling challenges such as an overall decline in reading, returns of unsold stock
from retailers, the intensifying battle for shelf space, and the perplexing question of e-books
pertaining to the segment?
Armed with an archive of trade book data that goes back more than 30 years, Simba’s team
of seasoned trade book analysts examines the market for children’s books segment by
segment, from youngsters to tweens to teens. In addition, Children’s Publishing Market
Forecast 2012 provides high-quality, unbiased market intelligence on the publishing houses,
and the entire retail landscape, from independent bookstores to online outlets to big box
stores.
Browse All: Market Forecast Market Research
Gain access to exclusive statistics and analysis such as:
• An in-depth look at bestselling children’s books drawn from the USA Today, Publishers
Weekly and New York Times lists, with breakdowns of top-performing titles, authors,
imprints and a comprehensive category ranking of which books are selling and which are
not.
• Children’s e-book trend data culled from Simba’s Trade E-Book Publishing 2011
• Expanded analysis of the most vital facet of children’s publishing: series books.
• Results from Simba’s surveys of independent retailers across the country rating different
books and genres; as well as info on buyer profiles and behaviors.
• Exclusive five-year category trends for 15 major juvenile categories.
Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2012 includes detailed strategic and financial profiles
of companies such as Candlewick Press, Hachette Book Group, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck,
Houghton Mifflin, Penguin Group, Random House, Scholastic and Simon & Schuster.
This report is a critical tool in evaluating growth potential, understanding trends affecting
the industry, sizing up the competition, reviewing potential partner or acquisition profiles,

2. examining market share rankings of leading publishers, benchmarking performance, and
planning short- and long-term growth strategies.
Children’s Publishing Market Forecast 2012 is essential for publishing executives, M&A
advisors, market analysts, and industry consultants who need to understand the business
strategies driving the children’s trade book publishing industry today.
Simba senior trade book analyst Michael Norris has been tapped by the New York Times,
TIME and USA Today and other publications to discuss industry trends and bestseller data
for the adult and children's publishing markets. Have this firsthand intelligence at your
fingertips to understand buyer habits, the significance of series, and where the strengths
and weaknesses lie for the top imprints in children’s and young adult publishing today.
Table of Contents
Methodology
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children’s Book Market and Buyer
Demographics
Introduction
Who Are the Buyers?
Who’s Reading the Books?
Table 1.1: Who is Buying the Most of the Children’s/YA Titles in Your Store?
Table 1.2: When Parent(s) or Adults are buying a Children’s/YA book, who is it
usually?
Table 1.3: Who is the second most likely adult buying Children’s/YA books at your
store?
Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Adults Who Have
Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Adults with Children
in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Women with
Children in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.7: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Men with Children
in Household Who Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.8: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandparents Who
Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.9: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Grandmothers Who
Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.10: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults). Grandfathers Who
Have Purchased Children’s Books
Table 1.11: Describe the Gender Mix of Children’s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store

3. Table 1.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books
by Gender
Table 1.13: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books
by Race
Table 1.14: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books
by Age Bracket
Table 1.15: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books
by Education Level
Table 1.16: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books
by Household Income
Table 1.17: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books
by Employment Status
Table 1.18: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Buyers of Books
by Region
Table 1.19: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children’s Book
Buyers by Kind of Residence
Table 1.20: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book/Comic
Consumers by Marital Status
Table 1.21: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Children’s Book
by Household Children Population
Table 1.22: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults): Book Consumers
by Age of Children in Household
Chapter 2: Trends in Children’s Book Publishing
Introduction
Children’s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade Estimated Net Sales
Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
E-Book Adoptions Still Inconclusive
The Value of Series
Series Author Case Study: Stephenie Meyer
Series Author Case Study: J.K.Rowling
Success Still Consolidated
Trade Paperback Still The Leading Format
TV and Movie Tie-Ins Becoming More Important
Retailers and Publishers Relationships and Influence Changing
Teen Book Market Still Hot, But Children’s Gains
Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade
Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and
Juvenile, 2011 vs. 2010
Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
Table 2.4: Average Amount of Time Spent Reading Print Media (Books)
Table 2.5: A Day in the Life of an 8-18 Year Old Media Consumer
Table 2.6: Cell Phone Content Allocation For Children
Table 2.7: Class Share of Bestsellers, 2009
Table 2.8: Class Share of Bestsellers, 2010

4. Table 2.9: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 2.10: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2009-June 2010
Table 2.11: NYT/USA Today Children’s Bestsellers, July 2010-June 2011
Table 2.12: Top Ten E-Books, 2009 and 2010
Table 2.13: Scholastic Revenue, FY2001-2011
Table 2.14: Average Bestselling Titles per Author
Table 2.15: What Format of Children’s/YA has been a Particularly Strong Performer
in the First Half of 2008-2009-2010-2011?
Table 2.16: Top Ten Trade Categories (2006-2010)
Table 2.17: How Would you Rate the Following Formats of Children’s Books in Terms
of How They Sell?
Table 2.18: Children’s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
Table 2.19: When Looking at Children’s and Young Adult Titles Separately How
Would you Say Your Business is Trending?
Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints
Introduction
New York Times Series Bestsellers
USA Today Bestsellers
Bestselling Books, Authors, Imprints and Categories
Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
Bestselling Books
Bestselling Authors
Leading Imprints
Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title
Table 3.1: No. of New Children’s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller
Lists, July 2006-June 2011
Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2009-June 2010
Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2010-June 2011
Table 3.11: Leading Children’s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison July 2009-
June 2011
Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2010-June 2011
Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts
Introduction
Leading Children’s Publishers
Candlewick

5. Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
HarperCollins
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House
Scholastic
Simon & Schuster
Revenue Trends
Size of the Children’s Publishing Market
Leading Children’s Publishers by Revenue
First-Half Comparisons, 2011 vs. 2010
Forecast for Balance of 2011 and Beyond
Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2008-2012P
Table 4.3: Leading Children’s Publishers, 2009-2013P
Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Net Sales
Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children’s/YA Category Returns
Chapter 5: Category Trends
The Top Categories
USA Today Bestseller Data
Children’s Titles vs. All Titles Released
Children’s/YA Category Analysis
Action & Adventure
Animals
Family & Relationships
Fantasy
Graphic Novel
History
Horror
Horror & Ghost
Humor
People & Places
Religion
Schools & Education
Science Fiction
Social Issues
Social Science
Table 5.1: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-
June 2008

6. Table 5.2: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-
June 2009
Table 5.3: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2009-
June 2010
Table 5.4: Leading Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2010-
June 2011
Table 5.5: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles,
July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.6: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles,
July 2009-June 2010
Table 5.7: Leading USA Today Children’s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles,
July 2010-June 2011
Table 5.8: New Children’s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2006-2010
Table 5.9: Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview
Table 5.10: Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
Table 5.11: Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure
Table 5.12: Animals Bestseller Performance
Table 5.13: Vital Statistics - Animals
Table 5.14: Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
Table 5.15: Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships
Table 5.16: Fantasy Bestseller Performance
Table 5.17: Vital Statistics - Fantasy
Table 5.18: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
Table 5.19: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel
Table 5.20: History Bestseller Performance
Table 5.21: Vital Statistics - History
Table 5.22: Horror Bestseller Performance
Table 5.23: Vital Statistics - Horror
Table 5.24: Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
Table 5.25: Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost
Table 5.26: Humor Bestseller Performance
Table 5.27: Vital Statistics - Humor
Table 5.28: People & Places Bestseller Performance
Table 5.29: Vital Statistics - People & Places
Table 5.30: Religion Bestseller Performance
Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Religion
Table 5.32: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education
Table 5.34: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction
Table 5.36: Social Issues Bestseller Performance
Table 5.37: Vital Statistics - Social Issues
Table 5.38: Social Science Bestseller Performance
Table 5.39: Vital Statistics - Social Science
Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales
Introduction

7. Where Books Are Being Purchased
Mass Merchandisers and Children’s Book Retailing
Performance and Outlook of the Big Three Chains
Barnes & Noble
Borders Group
Books-A-Million
Operating Performance at the Big Three Chains
Superstores and Small Format Store Closings
Online Bookselling
Amazon.com
The Big Three
Channel Breakdown for All Book Buyers vs. Children’s Book Buyers
Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel
Trends
Table 6.2: Number of Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
Table 6.3: Bestselling Children’s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2011
Table 6.4: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2006-2010
Table 6.5: Leading Bookstore Chains Revenue Growth, 2006-2010
Table 6.6: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2006-2010
Table 6.7: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2006-2010
Table 6.8: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2006-2010
Table 6.9: Amazon’s Media Sales vs. Electronic Sales as a Percentage of Total Sales,
2007-2010
Table 6.10: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2006-2010
Table 6.11: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type
of Book Buyer
Table 6.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type
of Book Buyer
Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions
Conclusions
Other Recommendations
Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child’s Reading Habits
Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children’s Trade Book Market, 2006-2011P
Profiles of Leading Children’s Book Publishers
Candlewick Press
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette Book Group
HarperCollins Publishers
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan

8. Penguin Group (USA)
Random House Inc.
Scholastic Corp.
Simon & Schuster Inc.
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