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TEAM 1
 Jeremy Blanchard
Cesar Calvo Medina
  Dong Sun Chang
      Evan Dasilva
        Jiten Goyal
   Shannon Rohan
How Does it Work?
                    GPS Receiver
                    Determines

                     Altitude
                     Latitude
                    Longitude
                      Speed
                     Direction
What is a Navigation Device?
   Receiver      Hardware      Maps&Software
Index
   1    Industry Analysis

   2    Company Overview

   3    Recommendations

   4       Conclusion
GPS Navigation Industry
     Content               Components                          Devices                End Users


                           GPS Chips: Qualcomm
         Maps &                                                 Maritime & Aviation
                                  SiRF,
         Navteq
       Geospatial             Global Locate
                             GPS Chipsets &
        TeleAtlas
                                                                    Outdoor & Sport
          Data                   Modemn& others:
                                Components                             Devices
                            Sierra, Enfora, Trimble, Novatel
            Points of
              AAA                                                                           Consumer
                                                                     Portable Navigation       &
          Gas Stations
           interest &                                                     Devices           Business
           other Data
            Retailers     TeleNav, Goo
                                              Wireless               Auto In-Dash
                          gle, Networks
                             Platform          Mobile
                                              Location                Navigation
                                in
                                 &            Carriers,
        Satellite
        GeoEye
                                               Based
                          Motion, Yaho
                          Applications       GM OnStar
       Intermap
        Aerial &                              Services            Mobile phones
                                 o
      Digital Globe
       Imageries


                      Application & Services

Source: JP Morgan
Intellectual Property in the GPS Industry

                              Provided free by the
              Satellite
                                  government
            information




           Chip and other
                              Protected by patents
            components




           Maps, software
                             Protected by copyrights
            and content
Devices Industry Analysis
                                                                2.New
                                                               Entrants




                              5.Bargaining                                        3.Bargaining
                                                             1.Current
                                Power of                                            Power of
                                                            Competition
                                Suppliers                                          Customers




                                                            4.Substitute
                                                              Products



Source: Michael Porter. Competitive Strategy (New York:Free Press, 1980)pp22-23
2

  Rivalry                               5    1   3

                                             4




                     Column1
                  MARKET GROWTH                                         MARKET SHARE

                                                                                                  23%




                                                     21              49%
                                                                                                    16%
                                         12
                           5
           4                                                                                 4%
                                                                                    Others
         2005            2006           2007         2008E
                                                                                     8%

                CAGR 2005-2008E 80%                                Top 3 Concentration: 88%



                                                             Source: JP Morgan, Global GPS devices shipments
Source: JP Morgan, million Units of GPS sold in US
2


External Pressures              5   1   3

                                    4




                                                    Phone
                                                Manufacturers/
                                                   Wireless
                 In-Dash Car
 NEW ENTRANTS                                      carriers/
                Manufacturers
                                                Google, MS Live
                                                    maps




  SUBSTITUTES        Paper Maps, Compass, Self Orientation
2

Bargaining Power   5   1   3
                       4




      Suppliers            Customers

  Components
                       End User

 Applications &
   Services
                       Business

    Content
GPS Devices Industry Analysis

                                                                2.New
                                                               Entrants




                              5.Bargaining                                        3.Bargaining
                                                             1.Current
                                Power of                                            Power of
                                                            Competition
                                Suppliers                                          Customers




                                                            4.Substitute
                                                              Products



Source: Michael Porter. Competitive Strategy (New York:Free Press, 1980)pp22-23
Device Industry Performance 2007

                               ROE
        ROA                                           ROS


              14.4                                          14.4
                                     29.3

  5.9                   12.6                   4.7


Economy   Industry    Economy    Industry    Economy    Industry



          The industry was performing well in 2007…
Industry Performance 2008
         ROA                                              ROS
                                   ROE

  5.9


               15.7                                              12.5
                                         35.3       4.7
                            12.6

Economy      Industry                             Economy    Industry
                          Economy    Industry
   5.9                                               4.7
                             12.6
                                                                 -15.3
               -3.2                    -68.5
Economy      Industry      Economy    Industry    Economy    Industry




        However, TomTom’s results in 2008 affected the overall
        Excluding TomTom the industry is still in good shape…
                       industry performance
Navigation Devices Market Segment
                                   Main Players
           Segment   Market Size

Outdoor/Fitness        $ 0.4Bn

Marine                $ 0.2 Bn

Aviation              $ 0.9 Bn

PND                    $7.1Bn

In-Dash               $16.1 Bn

Smartphones          $ 124.6 Bn
Industry Trends

                Hardware commoditization -> steep margin erosion
      PND




                Lower penetration due to high price and long design cycle
    In-dash




                Driver of GPS penetration
   Smartphone




                Play a key role in navigation evolution
      LBS
Market Positioning
            LowCost   Differentiator
   Broad
   Narrow
Index
   1    Industry Analysis

   2    Company Overview

   3    Recommendations

   4       Conclusion
Garmin, a World Leader in GPS Devices
                 Founded in 1989, Garmin Ltd is a leading,
                    worldwide provider of navigation,
                 communications and information devices.


    Main Figures               Income Breakdown
                                                    Auto/
  MARKET CAP   $ 4.4 Bn                             Mobile
                                                     62%


  EMPLOYEES     8,919
                             Marine
                              7%
   REVENUE     $3,494 M

  NET INCOME    $733 M         Outdoor
                               /Fitness
                                                    Aviation
                                 18%
                                                      13%
Vertical Integration
                          Supply Chain




Manufacturing        R&D            Assembly         Distribution




 Highly vertically integrated, from manufacturing to distribution
Alliances
       Partnerships , Contracts & Joint Ventures

                  More Integration


  Long Term           Strategic             Joint
  Contracts           Alliances           Ventures
Company Product Lines
           Automotive / Mobile        Fitness / Outdoor




                        31 products      45 products

                          Marine          Aviation




                        56 products     34 products
Source: Annual Report
Performance Evolution by Segment
       Automotive / Mobile                    Fitness / Outdoor
3,000                          45%      500                          60%
                                        400
2,000                                   300
                               40%                                   55%
                                        200
1,000
                                        100
   0                           35%        0                          50%
         2005 2006 2007 2008                  2005 2006 2007 2008

              Marine                                  Aviation
 250                           60%      400                          70%
 200                                    300
                               55%
 150
                                        200                          65%
 100                           50%
                                        100
  50
   0                           45%        0                          60%
        2005 2006 2007 2008                    2005 2006 2007 2008
                               Margin   Income (M$)
Company Product Lines
                                Market Share
                         High                  Low
                  High
  Market Growth
                  Low
Company Product Lines
                                Market Share
                         High                  Low
                  High
  Market Growth
                  Low
Performance Evaluation 2008
                      ROA                                 ROS


                          +9.3
                                                           +8.5
                                 25.0                             21.0
                   +9.8
                                                   +7.8

     5.9                                   4.7
 Economy Industry* Firm                  Economy Industry* Firm
                                 TOTAL                            TOTAL


             Garmin is performing well above the industry average
*ExcludingTomTom
SWOT Analysis

    • Brand recognition             •Excessive vertical
    • Wide range of products and     integration
        services                    •Nuvifone
    •   Market leader               •74% of revenue from
    •   Robust R&D efforts           PNDs




    • Several cash cow segments     •Price erosion in PND
    • Navigation becoming a         •NAVTEQ and TeleAtlas
      necessary feature – service    (map suppliers) acquired
      and application                by rivals
    • Huge growth expected for      • Mobile convergence
      LBS
Index
   1    Industry Analysis

   2    Company Overview

   3    Recommendations

   4       Conclusion
Sustainability Threat
 Imitation              Substitution

               Value
              Created

              Value
             Captured

                            Slack
 Hold Up
Strategy Against Imitation
  Establish exclusive relationships with OEMs

  Aviation

  Marine

  Outdoor

  Explore new GPS applications
  Create new business segments
GPS New Applications: Welfare Technology
Senior citizens, patients with chronic diseases, citizens with
handicaps have been left behind in technology development




  Nearly 20 percent of the US population will be 65 or
                    older by 2030


                                         Home Healthcare
       GPS Tracking
                                           Monitoring
GPS Tracking
 Integrated as a passive
 passenger


Voice Activated Guide



Implanted devices
Home Healthcare Monitoring

 • Integrated healthcare

 • GPS applications in next
   generation medical devices

 • Preventing acute
   emergency conditions


   Home health monitoring is expected to grow from
       $3bn in 2009 to $7.7bn dollars by 2012
NPV Valuation: Medical Devices
         Expected Cash Flows (Mn)          Long Term Growth

                                                 5%

                                     80
                                                WACC
                            69
                    40
            13
                                                 15%
 2009      2010    2011    2012     2013


 (100)
                                                NPV
                                               $450M
Sustainability Threat
 Imitation              Substitution

               Value
              Created

              Value
             Captured

                            Slack
 Hold Up
Backward Integration
  Why?

         Supplier Hold Up

         Asset Specificity

         Application & Platform Development
  How?
         Acquisition

         Over $1.5 Billion in Working Capital
Backward Integration
  Acquisition Options
    Michelin
     Failed Venture into PND Industry

     Divest of Non-Core Business

    Intermap
     Purchase Range of $300-$500 Million

     Provide Development Capital
NPV Valuation: Map Company Acquisition
         Expected Cash Flows (Mn)          Long Term Growth

                                                 2%
                                     52
                            48
                    44
            37

                                                WACC
 2009      2010    2011    2012     2013



                                                 15%
 (300)


                                                 NPV
                                                $31M
Sustainability Threat
 Imitation              Substitution

               Value
              Created

              Value
             Captured

                            Slack
 Hold Up
Cost Control

  Manufacturer                 Applications
                                    &
                                Platforms


  Outsourcing
   Outsource production of commoditized PNDs

   Keep proprietary & value added
   manufacturing in-house
Sustainability Threat
 Imitation              Substitution

               Value
              Created

              Value
             Captured

                            Slack
 Hold Up
Automotive Partnerships
 The Plan

 Partnerships with luxury brands
  -Garmin brand recognition
 Initial production in-house
  -Long term: outsource production
 Urgent Priority
  -Long auto development cycle
Automotive Partnerships
  Why ?

 $16.1 billion market
 By 2012, 19% of new vehicles
 projected to have in-dash navigation

 Barrier to Adoption
 Average cost: 6% of
 MSRP
Automotive Partnerships

 Current Players
 General automotive suppliers

   New Trends



  -Toyota (select
                            -MINI (mount)
  vehicles)
                            -PSA- Peugeot Citroën
  -Renault Clio
                            -Jeep Grand Cherokee
  -Fujitsu Ten Eclipse
NPV Valuation: In-dash Market
         Expected Cash Flows (Mn)          Long Term Growth

                                                 2%
                                     27
                            26
                    20
            11
                                                WACC
 2009      2010    2011    2012     2013


                                                 15%
 (100)


                                                 NPV
                                                $63M
The Mobile Convergence…
            2007 iPhone
… is not a new Idea
           1981 Swiss Army Knife
Smartphones = Disruptive Technology
                                            Enabling Factors
                                          Location Based Services
                                         Open Application platforms
                                           Smartphone Evolution
Performance




              PNDs
                                               4G technology


                                            Delaying Factors
                     Smartphones           Economic environment
                                             PNDs new services
                                          Current Pricing Schemes

                              Time
                                     ?
Garmin Reaction: The Nuvifone

                            A new concept of mobile phone
                                   centered around
                                Location Based Services


      Good Decisions                         Bad Decision

  Identify smartphone as the
                                          Closed Source Platform
     market for disruption
     Establish a separate
        business unit
    Keep the organization
        independent
Open Platform for Innovation



     Garmin Users                            Software Developers
                         • Provide SDK
 • Users submit
                                            • Developers submit
                         • Host Apps
   innovative ideas to
                                              applications similar to
   Garmin
                         • Issue Prizes       iTunes
 • Users vote on
                                            • Developers select
                         • Super-users to
   submitted ideas
                                              projects from the
 • Best idea awarded a     enforce rules      proposed ideas
   Prize


        Objective: Lead the development of LBS
Location Base Value Chain
      Chip Makers                     Chip Makers




                Platform Developers




                       Handset




                    Mobile Carriers
GPS as a Platform for Two Sided Markets
                       GPS
 Points of Interest            GPS Users
                      Device
Creating Same Side Network Effects

      PND                        PND Users




  Same side network effect critical to increase growth
Garmin Developed Apps
  User POI Reviews
                     User Traffic Updates
                                            User Map Updates
     Gas here is
     only $2.69.     Accident on 93
                       South. At a             This road is a
                        standstill.              one way.
Garmin Caravan


     Great
    -accept
                  Ok
   waypoint-
                -accept
                               Hey guys,
               waypoint-
                              let’s stop at
                             Joe’s Tavern .
                           -Insert waypoint-
Garmin Destinations


                       Got a flat tire.
                      200 euro for the
                        tow and fix.




    I can’t wait to
    blog about my
         trip.




                      on
rd
3     Party Developers
NPV Valuation: Garmin Platform
         Expected Cash Flows (Mn)          Long Term Growth

                                                 5%
                                     67
                                                WACC
                     6      24
            1

                                                 15%
 2009      2010    2011    2012     2013



 (100)
                                                NPV
                                               $309M
Conclusion
                                 • Enter (In-Dash)
             Garmin devices in   • Explore (Medical
  Ubiquity    all the Market       Devices)
                 Segments        • Defend
                                   (Aviation, Marine, &
                                   Outdoor)


                                 • Acquire Map Company
               Garmin as a       • Open Platform for
  Services   platform for two      Innovation
              sided markets      • Generate User Content
                                   (Web 2.0)
Location Based World
Q&A

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Garmin

  • 1. TEAM 1 Jeremy Blanchard Cesar Calvo Medina Dong Sun Chang Evan Dasilva Jiten Goyal Shannon Rohan
  • 2. How Does it Work? GPS Receiver Determines Altitude Latitude Longitude Speed Direction
  • 3. What is a Navigation Device? Receiver Hardware Maps&Software
  • 4. Index 1 Industry Analysis 2 Company Overview 3 Recommendations 4 Conclusion
  • 5. GPS Navigation Industry Content Components Devices End Users GPS Chips: Qualcomm Maps & Maritime & Aviation SiRF, Navteq Geospatial Global Locate GPS Chipsets & TeleAtlas Outdoor & Sport Data Modemn& others: Components Devices Sierra, Enfora, Trimble, Novatel Points of AAA Consumer Portable Navigation & Gas Stations interest & Devices Business other Data Retailers TeleNav, Goo Wireless Auto In-Dash gle, Networks Platform Mobile Location Navigation in & Carriers, Satellite GeoEye Based Motion, Yaho Applications GM OnStar Intermap Aerial & Services Mobile phones o Digital Globe Imageries Application & Services Source: JP Morgan
  • 6. Intellectual Property in the GPS Industry Provided free by the Satellite government information Chip and other Protected by patents components Maps, software Protected by copyrights and content
  • 7. Devices Industry Analysis 2.New Entrants 5.Bargaining 3.Bargaining 1.Current Power of Power of Competition Suppliers Customers 4.Substitute Products Source: Michael Porter. Competitive Strategy (New York:Free Press, 1980)pp22-23
  • 8. 2 Rivalry 5 1 3 4 Column1 MARKET GROWTH MARKET SHARE 23% 21 49% 16% 12 5 4 4% Others 2005 2006 2007 2008E 8% CAGR 2005-2008E 80% Top 3 Concentration: 88% Source: JP Morgan, Global GPS devices shipments Source: JP Morgan, million Units of GPS sold in US
  • 9. 2 External Pressures 5 1 3 4 Phone Manufacturers/ Wireless In-Dash Car NEW ENTRANTS carriers/ Manufacturers Google, MS Live maps SUBSTITUTES Paper Maps, Compass, Self Orientation
  • 10. 2 Bargaining Power 5 1 3 4 Suppliers Customers Components End User Applications & Services Business Content
  • 11. GPS Devices Industry Analysis 2.New Entrants 5.Bargaining 3.Bargaining 1.Current Power of Power of Competition Suppliers Customers 4.Substitute Products Source: Michael Porter. Competitive Strategy (New York:Free Press, 1980)pp22-23
  • 12. Device Industry Performance 2007 ROE ROA ROS 14.4 14.4 29.3 5.9 12.6 4.7 Economy Industry Economy Industry Economy Industry The industry was performing well in 2007…
  • 13. Industry Performance 2008 ROA ROS ROE 5.9 15.7 12.5 35.3 4.7 12.6 Economy Industry Economy Industry Economy Industry 5.9 4.7 12.6 -15.3 -3.2 -68.5 Economy Industry Economy Industry Economy Industry However, TomTom’s results in 2008 affected the overall Excluding TomTom the industry is still in good shape… industry performance
  • 14. Navigation Devices Market Segment Main Players Segment Market Size Outdoor/Fitness $ 0.4Bn Marine $ 0.2 Bn Aviation $ 0.9 Bn PND $7.1Bn In-Dash $16.1 Bn Smartphones $ 124.6 Bn
  • 15. Industry Trends Hardware commoditization -> steep margin erosion PND Lower penetration due to high price and long design cycle In-dash Driver of GPS penetration Smartphone Play a key role in navigation evolution LBS
  • 16. Market Positioning LowCost Differentiator Broad Narrow
  • 17. Index 1 Industry Analysis 2 Company Overview 3 Recommendations 4 Conclusion
  • 18. Garmin, a World Leader in GPS Devices Founded in 1989, Garmin Ltd is a leading, worldwide provider of navigation, communications and information devices. Main Figures Income Breakdown Auto/ MARKET CAP $ 4.4 Bn Mobile 62% EMPLOYEES 8,919 Marine 7% REVENUE $3,494 M NET INCOME $733 M Outdoor /Fitness Aviation 18% 13%
  • 19. Vertical Integration Supply Chain Manufacturing R&D Assembly Distribution Highly vertically integrated, from manufacturing to distribution
  • 20. Alliances Partnerships , Contracts & Joint Ventures More Integration Long Term Strategic Joint Contracts Alliances Ventures
  • 21. Company Product Lines Automotive / Mobile Fitness / Outdoor 31 products 45 products Marine Aviation 56 products 34 products Source: Annual Report
  • 22. Performance Evolution by Segment Automotive / Mobile Fitness / Outdoor 3,000 45% 500 60% 400 2,000 300 40% 55% 200 1,000 100 0 35% 0 50% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 Marine Aviation 250 60% 400 70% 200 300 55% 150 200 65% 100 50% 100 50 0 45% 0 60% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 Margin Income (M$)
  • 23. Company Product Lines Market Share High Low High Market Growth Low
  • 24. Company Product Lines Market Share High Low High Market Growth Low
  • 25. Performance Evaluation 2008 ROA ROS +9.3 +8.5 25.0 21.0 +9.8 +7.8 5.9 4.7 Economy Industry* Firm Economy Industry* Firm TOTAL TOTAL Garmin is performing well above the industry average *ExcludingTomTom
  • 26. SWOT Analysis • Brand recognition •Excessive vertical • Wide range of products and integration services •Nuvifone • Market leader •74% of revenue from • Robust R&D efforts PNDs • Several cash cow segments •Price erosion in PND • Navigation becoming a •NAVTEQ and TeleAtlas necessary feature – service (map suppliers) acquired and application by rivals • Huge growth expected for • Mobile convergence LBS
  • 27. Index 1 Industry Analysis 2 Company Overview 3 Recommendations 4 Conclusion
  • 28. Sustainability Threat Imitation Substitution Value Created Value Captured Slack Hold Up
  • 29. Strategy Against Imitation Establish exclusive relationships with OEMs Aviation Marine Outdoor Explore new GPS applications Create new business segments
  • 30. GPS New Applications: Welfare Technology Senior citizens, patients with chronic diseases, citizens with handicaps have been left behind in technology development Nearly 20 percent of the US population will be 65 or older by 2030 Home Healthcare GPS Tracking Monitoring
  • 31. GPS Tracking Integrated as a passive passenger Voice Activated Guide Implanted devices
  • 32. Home Healthcare Monitoring • Integrated healthcare • GPS applications in next generation medical devices • Preventing acute emergency conditions Home health monitoring is expected to grow from $3bn in 2009 to $7.7bn dollars by 2012
  • 33. NPV Valuation: Medical Devices Expected Cash Flows (Mn) Long Term Growth 5% 80 WACC 69 40 13 15% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (100) NPV $450M
  • 34. Sustainability Threat Imitation Substitution Value Created Value Captured Slack Hold Up
  • 35. Backward Integration Why? Supplier Hold Up Asset Specificity Application & Platform Development How? Acquisition Over $1.5 Billion in Working Capital
  • 36. Backward Integration Acquisition Options Michelin Failed Venture into PND Industry Divest of Non-Core Business Intermap Purchase Range of $300-$500 Million Provide Development Capital
  • 37. NPV Valuation: Map Company Acquisition Expected Cash Flows (Mn) Long Term Growth 2% 52 48 44 37 WACC 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15% (300) NPV $31M
  • 38. Sustainability Threat Imitation Substitution Value Created Value Captured Slack Hold Up
  • 39. Cost Control Manufacturer Applications & Platforms Outsourcing Outsource production of commoditized PNDs Keep proprietary & value added manufacturing in-house
  • 40. Sustainability Threat Imitation Substitution Value Created Value Captured Slack Hold Up
  • 41. Automotive Partnerships The Plan Partnerships with luxury brands -Garmin brand recognition Initial production in-house -Long term: outsource production Urgent Priority -Long auto development cycle
  • 42. Automotive Partnerships Why ? $16.1 billion market By 2012, 19% of new vehicles projected to have in-dash navigation Barrier to Adoption Average cost: 6% of MSRP
  • 43. Automotive Partnerships Current Players General automotive suppliers New Trends -Toyota (select -MINI (mount) vehicles) -PSA- Peugeot Citroën -Renault Clio -Jeep Grand Cherokee -Fujitsu Ten Eclipse
  • 44. NPV Valuation: In-dash Market Expected Cash Flows (Mn) Long Term Growth 2% 27 26 20 11 WACC 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 15% (100) NPV $63M
  • 46. … is not a new Idea 1981 Swiss Army Knife
  • 47. Smartphones = Disruptive Technology Enabling Factors Location Based Services Open Application platforms Smartphone Evolution Performance PNDs 4G technology Delaying Factors Smartphones Economic environment PNDs new services Current Pricing Schemes Time ?
  • 48. Garmin Reaction: The Nuvifone A new concept of mobile phone centered around Location Based Services Good Decisions Bad Decision Identify smartphone as the Closed Source Platform market for disruption Establish a separate business unit Keep the organization independent
  • 49. Open Platform for Innovation Garmin Users Software Developers • Provide SDK • Users submit • Developers submit • Host Apps innovative ideas to applications similar to Garmin • Issue Prizes iTunes • Users vote on • Developers select • Super-users to submitted ideas projects from the • Best idea awarded a enforce rules proposed ideas Prize Objective: Lead the development of LBS
  • 50. Location Base Value Chain Chip Makers Chip Makers Platform Developers Handset Mobile Carriers
  • 51. GPS as a Platform for Two Sided Markets GPS Points of Interest GPS Users Device
  • 52. Creating Same Side Network Effects PND PND Users Same side network effect critical to increase growth
  • 53. Garmin Developed Apps User POI Reviews User Traffic Updates User Map Updates Gas here is only $2.69. Accident on 93 South. At a This road is a standstill. one way.
  • 54. Garmin Caravan Great -accept Ok waypoint- -accept Hey guys, waypoint- let’s stop at Joe’s Tavern . -Insert waypoint-
  • 55. Garmin Destinations Got a flat tire. 200 euro for the tow and fix. I can’t wait to blog about my trip. on
  • 56. rd 3 Party Developers
  • 57. NPV Valuation: Garmin Platform Expected Cash Flows (Mn) Long Term Growth 5% 67 WACC 6 24 1 15% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (100) NPV $309M
  • 58. Conclusion • Enter (In-Dash) Garmin devices in • Explore (Medical Ubiquity all the Market Devices) Segments • Defend (Aviation, Marine, & Outdoor) • Acquire Map Company Garmin as a • Open Platform for Services platform for two Innovation sided markets • Generate User Content (Web 2.0)
  • 60. Q&A