1. The Future of Wireless
Adam Drobot
President, Advanced Technology Solutions
and CTO Telcordia
Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA
adrobot@telcordia.com
Keynote Talk
IEEE Wireless Communications Networks Conference – WCNC 2010
19 April 2010
Sydney, Australia
www.telcordia.com www.argreenhouse.com

2. Abstract
Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from
nothing, a set of global networks were created
with stunning speed and equally stunning
commitment of capital
– These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on
the planet
– They account for well over half the business activity of
service providers
– Mobile services involve components touching many
technologies, which are on exponential trajectories
– We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and
applications
– Consumers and users of these services have often surprised
us with what they will spend money on
– The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been
profound
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 2

3. Abstract (cont’d)
We are about to embark on the next chapter of
the mobile revolution where the global impact on
the way we live and interact with each other will
be even more dramatic
– New unifying infrastructure build around LTE and IP
– Extension to direct communication between devices
– A driving force in economic growth around the world
affecting all industries, governments, and individuals
– Change in people’s life styles
– Changes in who the players are for us in the industry
– A global shift in where research and development will occur
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 3

4. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 4

5. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 5

6. Adoption: US Wireless Subscribers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 6

7. Adoption: Consumer Adoption Curves, US
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 7

8. Wireless Adoption Milestones
 2007: Wireless-only households
exceed wireline-only households in US
 2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still
growing!
 2009: Half the world uses cell phones
* Information-communication-technology producing industries
(ICT): Consists of computer and electronic products; publishing
industries (includes software); information and data processing
services; and computer systems design and related services.
(US BEA)
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 8

9. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 9

10. Wireless-only Households in Canada
and the US
Source: CRTC: Convergence Policy, Policy Development & Research, Feb 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 10

11. Demographic Groups Most Likely to
be Cellular Only
% Cellphone-Only, Apr 2007
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 11

12. Percentage of US Households without
Landline Telephones
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 12

13. Projected North American Business
Use of Landline and Cell Phones
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 13

14. Phone Behavior by Age in Single-Person
Households
Source: Mediamark Research Inc. Survey of the American Consumer (Waves 56)
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 14

15. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 15

16. Global Trends: World View over 14 Years
 153 countries, 1995 – 2008
 Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population
 Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population
 Internet Users per 100 population
 Broadband Subscribers per 100 population
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 16

17. Global Trends – Fixed Telephone Lines
Fixed Telephone Lines
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 17

18. Global Trends
Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008
Fixed Lines per 100 pop, 2008
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
GDP per Capita, 2008
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 18

19. Global Trends
Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008
Germany
Canada
Fixed Lines per 100 pop, 2008
80 U.K.
Taiwan Switz.
70
Malta Iceland
60 Korea Sweden
China Lux.
50 Russia
U.S.
40 Viet Nam Norway
30 Australia
India New Zealand
20
Myanmar Qatar
10 Japan
Kuwait
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Niger
Burundi
GDP per Capita, 2008 Eq. Guinea
Papua New Guinea South Africa Malaysia
Size shows population Indonesia
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 19

20. Global Trends – Mobile Subscriptions
Mobile Subscriptions
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 20

21. Global Trends
Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Mobile Subs per 100 pop, 2008
200
150
100
50
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Size shows population
GDP per Capita, 2008
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 21

22. Global Trends
Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Mobile Subs per 100 pop, 2008 Estonia Bahrain Italy U.A.E
200 Lithuania U.K.
Russia
Bulgaria Lux.
150
Ukraine Qatar
Indonesia Switz.
100 Norway
Viet Nam Australia.
Gambia New Zealand
50 U.S.
Niger Korea
Burundi Japan Canada
Taiwan
0 Eq. Guinea
China
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
India
Size shows population
GDP per Capita, 2008
Papua New Guinea
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 22

23. Global Trends – Internet Users
Internet Users
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 23

24. Global Trends
Internet Users per 100 pop. in 2008
100
Internet Users per 100
90
80
pop, 2008
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Size shows population
GDP per Capita, 2008
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 24

25. Global Trends
Internet Users per 100 pop. in 2008
Iceland
Canada Holland Sweden
100
Internet Users per 100
Japan Norway
90 Taiwan
Switz.
80 Korea Lux.
pop, 2008
70 Malaysia U.S.
Australia
60 New Zealand
50
China Spain
40
Italy
Viet Nam
30 Qatar
20 Kuwait
Burundi
10 Russia
Portugal
0
100 1,000 India Indonesia 10,000 100,000
Niger Eq. Guinea
Size shows population
GDP per Capita, 2008
Papua New Guinea
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 25

26. Global Trends – Broadband Subscribers
Broadband Subscribers
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 26

27. Global Trends
Broadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Broadband Subs per 100
40
35
pop, 2008
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
GDP per Capita, 2008
Size shows population
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 27

28. Global Trends
Broadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008
Holland Sweden Denmark
Broadband Subs per 100 Korea Canada
40
Switz.
U.K. Iceland
New Zealand Japan
35 Norway
Lux.
pop, 2008
30 Taiwan
Germany
25 Australia
20 U.S.
China Chile
Russia Spain
15 India
Italy
10 Viet Nam Portugal
Russia
5
Qatar
0
100 1,000 10,000 100,000
Kuwait
Niger MyanmarGDP per Capita, 2008
Eq. Guinea
Size shows population Indonesia
Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 28

29. Global Trends – Over 14 Years
Continuing…
Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010
Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 29

30. Global Trends – Mobile Penetration by
Region – 2007 & 2008
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 30

31. Global Trends: Adoption by
Developing Nations
Source: Wireless Communications – Q2 2006 Topical
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 31

32. Global Trends: Wired vs. Wireless
Crossover
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 32

33. ARPU -- Data as % of Total, by Country
Source: Chetan Sharma 2008
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 33

34. Wireless Data ARPU for Major Operators Worldwide
Source: Chetan Sharma 2008
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 34

35. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 35

36. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
Pre-cellular
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 36

37. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
1996
(red = new in 1996)
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 37

38. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
2010
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 38

39. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
Pre-cellular
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 39

40. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
1996
(red = new in 1996)
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 40

41. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010
2010
1982 1996 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 41

42. Cellular Sites in the US – 1985-2009
Source: CTIA
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 42

43. Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 43
57,143 Dec-09
Mobile Sites in Australia – 1985-2009
Data source: ACMA
52,904 Dec-08
47,782 Dec-07
44,644 Dec-06
41,030 Dec-05
37,890 Dec-04
35,252 Dec-03
32,770 Dec-02
30,687 Dec-01
28,575 Dec-00
26,486 Dec-99
24,038 Dec-98
Mobile Sites
21,592 Dec-97
18,399 Dec-96
15,254 Dec-95
13,173 Dec-94
10,520 Dec-93
8,328 Dec-92
6,897 Dec-91
5,548 Dec-90
4,175 Dec-89
3,262 Dec-88
2,198 Dec-87
1,285 Dec-86
1,040 Dec-85
0
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000

44. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 44

45. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 45

46. Mobile Transformations
The 5 Year Cycles
??
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 46

47. Mobile Transformations –
Looking Forward
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 47

48. Cellphone Milestones BlackBerry
First SmartPhone -- touch
First TV ad screen, pager, calculator,
calendar, fax, e-mail
Open LG
Source
OS
IBM
Simon Android
Motorola
In movies
Wi-Fi-cellular
iDEN digital Sony- handoff
Ericsson iPhone
1986
Polyphonic App Store
Ringtones Nokia
Sharp – first 1.9 trillion
CameraPhone StarTAC text msgs
Motorola Vibrates, in 2007
“brick” Flips open
Treo
QWERTY kbd
Number Wi-Fi
Texting
Nokia portability cellular
Mp3 hybrid
GPS player
Nokia Kyocera E-911
AMPS trial Games 500 billion
SmartPhone BlackBerry
Prototype In Chicago text msgs
Patent Sat-
2001 in 2004
1975 Concept: Phone 109
1946 1966 GPRS Color Nokia 2002: More mobile subs
250 billion text phones
msgs in 2001 digital Bluetooth M I95cl than wired, worldwide
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 48

49. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 49

50. Digitization – Computing & Storage
Computing Storage
10 5
Grid Computing Latent Semantic Indexing
Areal Density (Mbits / in2)
60%CGR
Quad Core 10 4
Performance (on log scale)
Autonomic Computing In-memory Databases
Duo Core
Pentium 5
10 3
Blades Pentium 4
Multicore Pentium III 10 2
Pentium II
Pentium II 25%CGR
At constant cost! Pentium
Pentium Today
10 Today
I486 Today
I286/I386 1
40%CGR
IBM 360/370
10 -1
10 -2
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 50

51. Digitization – Energy Efficiency
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 51

52. Digitization – Storage
Capacity and Cost
10,000,000 $100,000.00
1,000,000 $10,000.00
Capacity *
100,000 $1,000.00
10,000 $100.00
1,000 $10.00
Petabytes
Cost per
Shipped 100 Cost * $1.00 Gigabyte
10 $0.10
1 $0.01
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010
Sources: IDC, "1999 Winchester Disk Drive Market Forecast and
Review,“ Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2000
*Telcordia projected capacity 1988-1994 & costs 2003-2010.
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 52

53. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 53

54. Role of Technology – Software
Agents,
Service Oriented
Architectures
Java, J2EE
.NET
Complexity
Component Based Model Driven Architectures
C++,
Development
Smalltalk Policy Based Designs
Object - Oriented Agents
C, COBOL,
Development
Fortran, Ada Service Oriented Architectures
Structured
Programming Today
1970 1980 1990 2000 2020
Software Quality by Industry
25
Per K lines of code
Range of Errors
20
15
10
5
0
Auto C&C Military Telecom WWW
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 54

55. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 55

56. Shape of the Industry & Underlying Infrastructure:
Network Layers
global
national
regional
metro
local
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 56

57. Role of Technology – Networks & Interfaces
Networks User Interfaces
4
10
Infiniband Interconnects
SCI
6G Services
Surface Area of Display
Ad-hoc Networks 10g PCI 3D
HIPPI Ethernet Express
Gb
Ethernet
Appliances
1000 OCDMA
Performance
Ethernet WANs
10 3
OC3 OCN Plasma
AutoRF DS3
ATA
LCD
100 Today
FChan
CRT
Access 10 2
DS1 IDE Access
SCSI
1
ST506 Today
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 57

58. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 58

59. Cellular Technology Roadmap
C
D
M
A
G
S
M
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 59

60. Mobile Data Users in the U.S.
Wireless Wireless Wireless % Data
Operator Technology Subscribers* Subscribers
AT&T GSM 71.4M 28% (20.0M)
T-Mobile GSM 30.8M 25% (07.7M)
Verizon Wireless CDMA 67.2M** 31% (20.8M)
Sprint CDMA 52.8M 25% (13.2M)
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 60

61. Evolution of Three Key ITU IMTS 3G
Technologies
HSPA+
EDGE Evolution
TDMA + WCDMA HSDPA HSPA LTE/SAE
R7
WCDMA R-99 R5 R6 R8 …
(3GPP)
CDMA2000 EV-DO EV-DO EV-DO EV-DO
(3GPP2) Rel 0 Rev A Rev B Rev C or UMB
802.16-2004 802.16-2005 802.16m
WiMAX OFDM OFDMA 4G
IMTS: Improved Mobile Telephony Service EV-DO: Evolution - Data Optimized
TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access UMB: Ultra Mobile Broadband
HSDPA: High Speed Downlink Packet Access OFDM: Orthogonal Frequency Division
HSPA: High Speed Packet Access (DL+UL) Multiplexing
LTE: Long Term Evolution
SAE: System Architecture Evolution
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 61

62. Data Rate, Mobility, Cost Comparisons
Source: Alvarion
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 62

63. GSM Technology Outlook thru 2010
(3GPP) GSM – WCDMA – LTE
Year of Technology Deployment in the US
… 2004 2005 2006 2008 2010 …
HSPA+
GSM/ EDGE WCDMA HSDPA HSUPA (MIMO) LTE/SAE
GPRS R-98 R-99 R5 R6 EDGE R8
Evolution
R7
GSM Global System for Mobile Communications
GPRS General Packet Radio Service
EDGE Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution
WCDMA Wideband CDMA
HSPDA High Speed Downlink Packet Data Access
HSUPA High Speed Uplink Packet Data Access
HSPA+ Enhanced High Speed Packet Access
LTE Long Term Evolution
SAE System Architecture Evolution
Source: Telcordia Report, 2008
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 63

64. Technology Roadmap
Cellular Technology Evolution: 2G, 3G, 4G…
2G 3G 4G
IDEN WIDEN HSDPA HSUPA HSPA+
EDGE
GSM GSM/GPR3 TD-SCDMA
802.16d 802.16e
WCDMA
PDC LTE, UMB,
802.11n 802.16n
& Mesh
TDMA 802.20
(CFDM)
CDMA CDMA
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DOa 1xEV-DOb
9-05A 9-05B
Latency: >200ms 100-200ms <100ms <20ms
Data rate: 20 kb/s ~500 kb/s up to 7.2 Mb/s up to 50 Mb/s
Source: Deutsche Bank (March 2008)
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 64

65. Wireless Technology Roadmap
Source: Docera Public Wiki 2010
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 65

66. Future Wireless Landscape
 Dominated by LTE with WiMAX playing a secondary role
 Two largest North American operators (Verizon and
AT&T) will migrate towards LTE
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 66

67. Future Wireless Landscape
Expect significant overlap and coexistence in
migration path
– LTE will coexist with Rev-A and with HSPA variants
for some time
– Multi-mode and backward compatible devices
Expect deployment delays
– Industry generally says “2010” timeframe
– Major hurdle may be backhaul to serve more base
stations with greater bandwidth
– Patents, Patents, Patents.
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 67

68. Things to Expect by 2015
 Near nationwide deployment in US with all top metro
areas covered by a 4G technology
 Backwards compatible terminals that can failover to 3G
technologies
 All-IP core networks and greater move towards mobile
VoIP
 More consumer electronics with embedded 3G/4G
capabilities.
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 68

69. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 69

70. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 70

71. Stages of Wireless Evolution
Stage I – Whom can I reach, and how quickly?
Stage II – When can I reach them?
Time shifting – messaging, email &
voicemail
Stage III – How much information can I
exchange, and with what circle of
recipients?
Interoperable applications
Stage IV – Which applications make sense over
which networks – LANs, WANs &
broadband
Stage V – Can I combine all my handheld devices
into one?
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 71

72. Stages of Wireless Evolution
Stage VI – How can I access data & information?
Initial digitization of information & creation
of browser functions
Stage VII – How many applications can I use on my
wireless handset?
Stage VIII – How can I use the same applications on
multiple devices? – Home, Office, PC,
Smartphone…
Stage IX – How can I get services that anticipate
what I need?
Stage X – How can I get anything, any place, any time?
And always… How can I get more for less?
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 72

73. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 73

74. What Will 5G & 6G Look Like? 3D
Video on the
Spot, Alerts 3G and 4G
•Mobility
•Ubiquity
Networks
Video
On Demand,
Voice
Movies
Wireless,
News Text Anticipation
• Physical Sciences
•Speed
•Bandwidth
•Immediacy
•Relevance Voice 5G and 6G
Fixed
Service Networks
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 74

75. 5G and 6G Services
Immediacy Anticipation
– Voice & Texting – Social networking
– Emergency – Location Based
Response Services
– News – Opportunity Driven
– Financial Info Marketing
– Gaming – Scheduling / Alerts
– Selected – Advanced Healthcare
Entertainment – Telematics
Products – Financial Services
– Streaming Audio / – Diagnostics /
Video Prognostics
– ... – ...
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 75

76. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 76

77. IP Leading to a Fully Packetized Future
 Information / data / content / media – major
drivers for applications
1. First, everything must be indexed for searching
(now underway)
2. Once digitized, indexed, objectified, everything will
be made available on a wireless handset, through
over-the-top applications (voice is just one service
of many)
3. What’s now available to techies, the rest of the
world wants
4. Google’s success: They’re the ones doing the
mash ups for the masses
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 77

78. Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict?
 Telecom, broadcasting media, and Internet – all converging
& competing in the same content delivery space
 Result is collision of world views, business models (e.g. ad-
based vs. subscription-based)
 Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset
vendors – all jostling for dominance
 User experience emerges as new battleground
 Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem
critical for success in converged space
 Seek to lead, and shape, necessary
eco-system
 Colliding industries, “creative gales of
destruction”, force players to
experiment with new business models
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 78

79. Traffic Impact of Introducing Packet-based
Services
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 79

80. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 80

81. 5G and 6G World: Integration, Convergence
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 81

82. 5G and 6G World: Market Driven by
Applications
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 82

83. 5G and 6G World: Market Driven by
Applications
150,000 apps… And counting!
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 83

84. Digitization: 5G and 6G Services
 Services, Applications
– Games
– Bill pay
– M-Commerce
– Social networking
– Store / restaurant finder
– Turn-by-turn navigation
– ...
 Applications --
magnet for customers
and revenue!
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 84

85. Digitization – 5G and 6G Services
The Columbia University
Earth Institute –
Millennium Villages
Project in Africa
Professor Jeffrey Sachs
Broadband, Internet, and cell phones are narrowing the digital
divide
They are revolutionizing how development assistance works
“It’s a remarkable technology… incredibly powerful and
quickly reaching the poor on a market basis.”
“Rural poverty has in the past been defined almost by its
isolation. This is a way to break economic isolation, indeed
isolation of all sorts.”
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 85

86. Africa Mobile Penetration
Source: Blycroft: “The Africa and Middle East Mobile Telecoms Market in Figures 2Q 2009“
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 86

87. ICT Development in Africa
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 87

88. Millennium Villages Project in East
Africa
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 88

89. Digitization – IP as a Wireless Integration
Enabler
 Over-the-Top Services
 App Stores
 Long-term, it’s all about services!
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 89

90. Mobile Data Services Market: % Revenues
by Segment Forecasts: India 2003-2012
Revenues
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
Messaging Entertainment Information Others
Others include mobile commerce & mobile marketing / advertising
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 90

91. Example: Telematics – Projected Growth in
Navigation Devices (millions)
80
71
70 OEM
60 Portable 56.8
50 43.4
40
30.9
30
19.8
20
10.5
10 4.2 3.4 4.1 4.8
1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8
0 1.3 1.6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Telematics Research Group 2007
OEM market share: 45% in 2005… 6% in 2012
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 91

92. Example: Telematics – Subscriber Base
Growth
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 92

93. Example: Telematics – Wireless Revenue
Breakdown
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 93

94. Operators Still Have (the) Key Assets !
 Network, backhaul
 Spectrum
 Customer relationships
 OSS / BSS
 Transaction-generated information
 Spatial coordinates, user location
 Most small developers still want
ties with operators
 Service provider of last resort
 Brand and mind share
 Regulatory backing (after all is said, they
build & operate critical social infrastructure)
Source: IDC
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 94

95. Agenda
 Trends and Projections
– Adoption Curves (long term views)
– Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future
– Global Penetration
– Infrastructure
 Technologies
– User Equipment
– Computing & Storage
– Software
– Networks
– Roadmaps
 Digitization – Beyond 4G
– Stages and Evolution
– The 5G and 6G World
– IP as an Integration Enabler
– Explosion of Services
 Questions & Answers
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 95

96. Discussion
It’s an Exciting World!
– Moving at an exponential pace
– Wireless is the future
“You ain’t seen nothing yet!”
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 96

97. Thank you!
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 97

98. G’day
Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 98