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Can Old Media enhance New Media
1. Can Old Media Enhance New Media?
How Traditional Advertising
Pays off for an Online Social Network
Markus Pfeiffer
mpfeiffer@
vivaldipartners.com
Markus Zinnbauer
mzinnbauer@
vivaldipartners.com
Allocating marketing budgets in the most efficient way remains one of the key
challenges for any marketing executive. Especially in cases of online pure plays such
as social networks, the trade-off between online channels (display advertising and
search engine marketing) versus classic communication (television, radio, print) has
been fervently discussed during the last decade. In practice, online channels are often
being favored for their direct accountability in terms of cost per click. To prove the
actual value of various channels, the authors present a marketing mix modeling case
study examining the business impact of various communication channels and the role
of other external factors that influence usage of the website.
INTRODUCTION AND REVIEW
Insights on how cross-media campaigns are
Advertising spend is experiencing its biggest
using online and offline advertising to create value
decline in history. Online advertising has also
for brands, however, are limited. One recent study
been affected by an expected 5.4 percent year-to-
indicates potential advantages of cross-media
year decrease in revenue in Q3 2009 (Interactive
advertising over single-medium advertising but
Advertising Bureau [IAB], 2009a). Online adver-
focused on a single-medium approach that used
tising budgets, however, are expected to experi-
only one online (banner ads) and one non-Internet
ence major increases in the coming years. Today,
advertising medium (print; Wakolbinger, Denk,
in the United Kingdom (and six months ago in
and Oberecker, 2009).
Denmark), Internet has overtaken television as the
Although these results provide very helpful
biggest advertising sector by market share (IAB,
insights for the single medium, a brand’s success
2009b).
often is driven by many different communica-
In the academic world, the development of
tion channels—online and offline—at the same
Internet advertising has led to a broad stream
time. More specifically, companies using Internet
of studies that focus on the economic perspec-
display advertisements typically also use search-
tive of display advertisements (Evans, 2009) and
engine marketing tools. For example, display-
implementation-oriented questions ranging from
related advertising and search advertising together
recall success factors (Danaher and Mullarkey,
accounted for more than 80 percent of the U.S. Q2
2003) to design and implementation of banner ads
2009 online advertising revenues (IAB, 2009a).
(Spalding, Cole, and Fayer, 2009; Hong, Thong,
on the need for cross-media campaigns combining
research on single-medium effectiveness within
Internet and non-Internet advertising means is
online advertising and comparative studies of the
the type of company (pure-play Internet vs. clas-
effectiveness of online and traditional advertising
sic “brick-and-mortar”). Looking at the specifics
(Manchanda, Dubé, Goh, and Chintagunta, 2006;
of Internet pure-plays from a decade ago, classic
Robinson, Wysocka, and Hand, 2007; Lin and
marketing communication budgets represented
Chen, 2009, Rosenkrans, 2009).
42 JOURNAL
Another factor that seems to have a major impact
and Tam, 2004). Furthermore, there is existing
a major share of the total investments within a
OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH March 2010
DOI: 10.2501/S0021849910091166
2. Can Old Media Enhance New Media?
Advertising spend is experiencing its biggest decline
of search engines for online activity, trust,
in history. Online advertising also has been affected
sored search-engine advertising is widely
by an expected 5.4 percent year-to-year decrease in
tising to more targeted advertising. Critics
revenue in Q3 2009.
compared to non-sponsored advertising
and buying decisions of consumers. Sponused, following the shift from mass adverargue that such efforts are less effective
(Sen, 2005). It is widely accepted, however,
that sponsored search-engine advertising
typical business plan of an Internet ven-
in a direct way. With the click-through
has positive long-term effects by increas-
ture. At the time, J. G. Sandon, a director at
rate (CTR) becoming a dominant form
ing a consumer’s exposure and awareness
Ogilvy, postulated that “you can’t build a
of measurement, data tracks the active
of a brand or product, which eventually
brand simply on the Internet. You have to
response to the advertising, clearly indi-
can lead to purchase and adoption (Ghose
go offline” (Freeman, 1999). Typically, the
cating cost-per-conversion (Hollis, 2005)
and Yang, 2009).
early Internet players had been allocating
and, therefore, enabling a much bet-
65 percent to 75 percent of their commu-
ter comparison of campaign efficiency
KEY RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND MODEL
nication budgets to offline media to create
compared to TV ratings and print read-
Tools such as SEM or search-engine opti-
awareness for their brand and drive traffic
ership estimates.
mization (SEO), which ensures a top posi-
to their Web site (Freeman, 1999).
tion placement in native search results, are
In recent years, many new pure-play
However, recent research has shown
primary examples of how the Internet has
ventures have been following the same
that assessing only the click success rate
opened up new opportunities for compa-
approach, balancing their spend between
does not provide a true picture. Banner
nies to raise awareness and relevance with
the different varieties of online marketing
advertising can increase a site’s traffic
target groups and thereby drive sales and
and communication activities and their
even with low direct CTR (Fulgoni and
increase brand equity. The means to reach
classic TV, radio, print, or billboard cam-
Mörn, 2009). This brand-building effect
a relevant target group also have become
paigns. Still, many practitioners believe
has been at the center of many studies,
more sophisticated in the past few years.
that commercial pure-plays need to rely
first and foremost a 2008 Google study.
Although the decision-making process
on classic channels—especially TV—to
Furthermore, CTR as a measure of suc-
for budget allocation has not changed sig-
overcome the limitations of online adver-
cess are biased as users intrinsically avoid
nificantly, the increase in complexity has
tising, such as the limited access to new
online advertising during their Web site
led to confusion about how to best create
target groups to create awareness for the
interactivity (Drèze and Hussherr, 2003).
efficiencies in marketing spending. Hence,
brand and support of their online market-
Following research on Web site effective-
efficient
ing activities (McMains and Morrissey,
ness by Song and Zinkhan (2008), further
budgets to various channels—offline and
2009).
allocation
of
communication
research on online advertising, therefore,
online—remains a key mystery to mar-
Consideration of cross-media effects for
should apply a more multi-dimensional
keters and advertising experts, including
Internet pure plays is significant for two
construct of success. This has been an
most Internet pure-plays.
reasons.
essential imperative for the development
of our dependent construct.
• Internet
pure-plays
are
For online brands, the decision to rely
only on digital marketing (SEM, SEO, and
becoming
In addition to classic online advertis-
banner advertising) or to invest in classic
increasingly important, accounting for
ing (display ads), other communication
communication channels (TV, print, out-
almost 60 percent of e-commerce rev-
formats and activities such as affiliate
door, and radio) often is solved by man-
enue opposed to multi-channels (Com-
programs, online sponsorships, coupon-
agement experience and intuition. Online
Score, 2009).
ing, and referrals have become everyday
brand marketers must consider the follow-
• Pure-play marketers can measure the
tools for online marketers. And search-
ing tradeoffs:
direct impact of all communication
engine marketing (SEM) has become a
channels on registrations and other met-
major area of investment for driving traffic
• How should we balance our invest-
rics along the customer purchase funnel
to Web sites, building on the integral role
ments in traditional media versus online
March 2010 JOURNAL
OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH 43
3. Can Old Media Enhance New Media?
advertising (knowing that both can
existing data series must be extended to
were either driven by affiliate programs
drive either direct behavior or brand-
provide more detailed insights into these
or acquired through bartering deals, we
equity building)?
efficiencies affecting early stages of the
relied exclusively on externally measured
brand funnel, our conclusion briefly will
gross media volumes (e.g., GRPs for TV or
address the results of this comparison.
estimated gross online marketing spend-
• How should we allocate budgets within
the classic non-Internet advertising
(between TV, print, radio, and bill-
Our key objective was to understand
boards) when compared to Internet dis-
effects on business success by using actual
play ads and SEM?
ing based on Nielsen NetRatings data)
rather than using actual investments.
registrations (number of newly signed
The underlying data sources enabled us
• What is the absolute impact of each of
users on basic free memberships) and
to analyze not only the impact of the com-
these channels on user behavior on a
actual sales in Euros (number of sold pre-
pany’s spending on their business success
variety of output measures (from first-
mium memberships for a monthly fee) of
but also the spillover effects of competi-
time registrations to repeat sales)?
the social network as dependent variables.
tors spending. Although these effects are
By using this broad spectrum of efficiency
well researched in the classic advertising
These tradeoffs have formed the guiding
metrics, we were able to assess not only the
field (Rust, Lemon, and Zeithaml, 2004;
objectives for a major “marketing-spend
varying impact of different media but also
Roehm and Tybout, 2006), there has been
effectiveness” effort we have developed
how different media impact the success at
no research into the spillover effects in
for a leading international social network.
different stages of the conversion funnel
classical advertising for Internet pure-
Our client wanted to use advanced statis-
(Figure 1). Focusing on registrations is in
plays, wherein brand awareness and dif-
tical measures to investigate actual effi-
line with related research on pure plays
ferentiation typically are extremely low
ciency of their communication activities.
(e.g., Pauwels and Weiss, 2008).
and, therefore, the risk of spillover effects
Beyond the obvious goal to increase over-
From a basic statistical perspective, we
all efficiency, the mix model was expected
aimed to understand how the dynamic
In our case, the underlying data allowed
to deliver concrete insights per communi-
movements of the company’s media spend
us to build a valid advertising-impact time
cation channel.
respectively high.
over time correlated with the business key
series across the relevant players, as exter-
On the basis of commercial data and the
performance indicators shown below.
nal observations and estimations not only
communication spending of an Internet
Because many online advertising activities
reflected the actual impact on the target
social networking site, we have investigated actual business effects of various
communication channels to draw general
Advertising Impact on Sales
conclusions regarding the relevance of
classic channels for pure-plays. This was
DISGUISED
completed on the basis of a communica-
Gross Media Spend 2008
(US$ million)
tion-mix logic, which has been a major
area of research in classical non-Internet
advertising for many years (Naik and
TV
12.4
Print
3.4
Outdoor
2.7
tors, such as building brand awareness
Internet
13.2
or image, or any other relevant purchase
Other
Raman, 2003; Naik, Raman, and Winer,
2005).
In our research, we did not consider any
effects on key brand performance indica-
drivers (Rubinson and Pfeiffer, 2008). Nev-
0.4
31.1
ertheless, we still were able to prove the
Business KPIs 2008
?
Effect of
advertising
spend per
channel on
business
success
Registrations
2,412,337
Activation
1,829,940
First Sales
92,238
Repeat Sales
148,881
Win Back
24,047
potential brand-building success of online
versus offline advertising activities based
on brand-equity data that the company
measures continuously. Although the
44 JOURNAL
Figure 1 Measuring Marketing Effectiveness against Key
Business KPIs
OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH March 2010
4. Can Old Media Enhance New Media?
group more accurately but provided a
for general available buying power), or
For monthly data points such as print-
comparable basis across various competi-
even such basic factors as weather condi-
advertising spend, we applied the aver-
tors’ spending.
tions (sunny vs. rainy days) that also influ-
age daily value as a proxy or used linear
To build a holistic and valid framework,
ence the likelihood of time spent in front of
regression to estimate daily development
it also was important to account for all rel-
the PC within an online community. This
from one month to another (e.g., evolu-
evant factors that have a potential moder-
leads to a very broad underlying frame-
tion of unemployment rate). Overall, the
ating influence on actual sales in addition
work encompassing all relevant factors
accessible data provided us with a statisti-
to the advertising activities across the dif-
that would influence our client’s key per-
cally sufficient frequency of data points to
ferent channels. Only then our statistical
formance indicators (KPIs) (Figure 2).
calculate a robust model. As the industry
model would be able to residualize actual
On the basis of historical data for a three-
is known to be quite responsive to com-
effects of communication activities. For
year time span for each of the independent
munication efforts, the significance of the
this case of a social-networking platform,
and dependent variables, we deployed the
estimates for the beta coefficients was fur-
we decided to consider a set of relevant
open-source statistical package GRETL
ther supported by the high variance in key
variables that should have an expected
to estimate an autoregressive time-series
business variables (Figure 3).
impact on the need for meeting people
model. Owing to the nature of the online
online. Specifically, we decided to account
business, all relevant business indicators
IMPACT OF VARIOUS ADVERTISING
for seasonal effects, special events (e.g.,
could be provided as data streams with
CHANNELS
highly relevant sports events drawing
a daily frequency. The same quality was
The models provided a valid overview of
people to their TV sets), holiday seasons,
accessible for Internet marketing spend
the impact of the company’s own com-
unemployment rates (as another indicator
and most external factors (e.g., weather).
munication activities, activities of key
Media Spend/Ext
ernal Factors
Competitors’
Gross Media Spend
TV
Radio
Outdoor
Online/SEM
PR/other
TV
Radio
Print
Outdoor
Online/SEM
PR/other
Weather (temp, sun hrs, rain/mm, wind)
Seasons
External Influence
Factors
Repeat Sales
Print
Holidays (Easter, Pentecost, Christmas)
Specials (Olympic Games, W
orld Cup)
Business Cy
cles (e.g. unem
ployment)
First Sales
Activation
Registrations
Impact on
Business and Brand
Own
Gross Media Spend
KPIs
• Total
• via channel
– Direct URL input
– Search Engine
Marketing
– Cooperations
Brand Strength
Brand Strength
Brand Status
• Awareness
(aided/unaided)
• Recall of ads
(aided/unaided)
• Sympathy, intent to
use, First Choice
Figure 2 Underlying Model
March 2010 JOURNAL
OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH 45
5. Can Old Media Enhance New Media?
relevant category and, thereby, increase
Revenue and Media Budgets
Revenue
TV
Outdoor
Print
Internet
analyses showed that this effect can be
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
2007
competitors’ sales (see Figure 4). In-depth
DISGUISED
2008
0
2009
reduced significantly when one compa-
Gross Media Spend (US$ million)
Revenues (US$ million)
20
ny’s campaigns are not being aired in parallel with a competitor’s TV commercials.
In contrast, print and poster both show
weak efficiency levels and cannot significantly increase a Web site’s traffic.
Overall, we found that classical advertising with a clear focus on TV clearly pays
off and outperforms pure search-engine
marketing with regards to generating new
registrations. However, this only holds
true until the point where the marginal
Figure 3 Development of Revenues and Gross Media
Spending
utility, which follows an S-curve function, starts to diminish below what searchengine marketing (in our case, mainly
competitors, and their effect on the exter-
activities of the two key competitors.
nal factors from registrations to actual
Both competitive networks are also pure-
Our findings also analyze the quality
first sales or repeat sales. Typical informa-
plays of similar size and provide nearly
of the traffic generated by various chan-
tion criteria—such as AIC, Bayesian, or
exchangeable services (shown in Figure 4
nels—how often leads are being con-
Hannan Quinn—were used to identify the
-
as competitor 1 and competitor 2). Addi-
verted into registrations and then, most
most appropriate model. Overall good-
tionally, TV campaigns tend to strongly
important, into EBIT-relevant subscrip-
ness of fit measures indicated the validity
affect the success of all players in the
tions at later stages of the funnel. The
Google adwords) can bring in.
of the model (e.g., adj. R² for modeling the
entry point of the funnel with registrations was 0.93, and down-the-funnel for
repeat sales was 0.67). As expected, pure
Impact of Communication and Other F
actors on Registrations
communication cannot fully explain the
DISGUISED
Impact of Own and Competit rs’
o
Communications Activities
actual behavior in the loyalty phase, as the
Average Registrations per day
(Basis: identical spending per pla
yer/channel)
personal perception and usage experience
also drives behavior to a large degree.
Impact of Select
ed
Influencing Factors
Average Registrations per day
By examining the impact of classic
Christmas/Ne Year
w
Own
Competitor 1
advertising channels on registrations, we
investigated whether TV, radio, print,
Pentecost
Competitor 2
+1,240
+720
Olympics
2.037
investment (ROI), generating relatively
qualified traffic via standard online mar-
321
130
keting channels.
Most noticeably, it became obvious that
345
279
12
24
–232
Unemployment (+0.1%)
1.432
more leads and new sales than purchasing
+127
Hours of sunshine (+1h)
or outdoor showed a positive return on
+75
54
78
–683
TV campaigns have the highest efficiency
TV
Radio
Print
SEM
Billboards
levels when compared with all classic
advertising channels. To account for the
actual market structure, our analyses also
integrated the effects of communication
46 JOURNAL
Figure 4 Impact of Communication Channels on Registrations
(basis: identical spending)
OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH March 2010
6. Can Old Media Enhance New Media?
To build a holistic and valid framework, it also was
to special occasions or circumstances, such
as large events.
important to account for all relevant factors that have
To account for long-term brand equity
effects, we further modeled the effects of
potential moderating influence on actual sales.
specific channels on brand strength indicators. These analyses showed that even
though TV lacks efficiency in terms of con-
trade-off calculations have then been
to convey an emotional and a local appeal.
version success toward paying member-
based on the total generated value per
This affected our client’s registration
ships, its broader audience and potential
US$ spent on a specific channel compared
heavily by decreasing average registra-
to convey messages in a very emotional
to the cost per funnel stage when buying
tions leading to 683 fewer new members
manner has a very positive impact on
traffic.
daily during the campaign (accounting for
general brand equity measures. TV adver-
about 10 percent).
tising significantly increases brand percep-
This analysis showed that, though TV
brings in more users onto the site and fills
At the same time, the model showed
tion rated on image attributes; by contrast,
the registration pipeline, conversion is
that the market still is in development,
SEM primarily fills the customer pipeline.
much weaker; the same budget leads to 42
as shown when a competitor’s advertis-
Although SEM produces a relevant self-
percent more registrations (2,037 vs. 1,432)
ing on shared channels drives a compa-
selected target group owing to the nature
through TV (see Figure 4). We found that
ny’s growth. All players seem to develop
of search mechanics, it showed no meas-
conversion to revenue-affecting stages
the entire market by introducing new
urable or statistically significant positive
down the funnel to first and repeat sales
users to the value of this type of social
effects on the brand on any dimension.
was much weaker in comparison (over-
networks (e.g., as shown in Figure 4, a
all 97 vs. 210 new or reinstated subscrip-
sig ificant number of the 321 new regn
CONCLUSIONS
tions). Therefore, data proved that SEM
istered users of the own Web platform
The data show that an online pure-play
sends more product-affine users to the
arrive per day when competitor 1 is plac-
can effectively rely on online marketing
platform, which leads to twice the amount
ing its TV commercials). Furthermore, the
once it has gained a reasonable aware-
of cash-affecting memberships. Hence,
model cannot investigate competitor suc-
ness and brand equity. Online advertising
SEM shows approximately three times the
cess without sales data across the market,
seems to drive activity, particularly in the
conversion success from a registration to a
which supportsthe hypothesis that a com-
later funnel stages and, thereby, drive pre-
paying membership than TV leads do (in
pany’s own activities drive competitor
mium memberships of our client, which
other words, a conversion rate of 5 percent
volume.
generate actual revenues by a conversion
for TV as compared to 15 percent for SEM).
Another useful insight for marketers
This is in line with findings from the auto-
was provided by the model’s ability also
motive industry, wherein TV advertising
to account for further influencing factors
To build brand strength or to actively
also has proven to be effective especially
beyond the company’s control. One intui-
convey a brand’s positioning relative to
in terms of upper-funnel metrics (Briggs,
tive and now proven example showed that
competitors toward a broad audience,
Krishnan, and Borin, 2005).
rate three times higher than the most efficient ATL-channel TV would.
the amount of registrations and overall
however, classic advertising remains a
Another key finding included the
use of the computer and Internet decrease
necessity. Further, results of a similar mod-
opportunity to outpace general efficiency
when hours of sunshine per day increase.
eling exercise in the apparel industry has
levels and competitors when one brand
User numbers rapidly increase during the
shown that on top of the pure efficiency
can occupy one classic channel, such as
festive season—an effect that can be lever-
of a single channel, brand managers also
radio, exclusively within an industry. By
aged through communication by pulling
have to take potential synergies between
doing so, the advertisement shows a sin-
disproportionate new users to the own
two or more media channels into account
gular positive effect on the advertiser and,
offering. Setting the concrete impact fig-
when coming to their final media mix
moreover, strongly affects registrations
ures of external factors into context with
decision (Naik and Raman, 2003). In the
and sales of other players in the industry
paid advertising provides an invaluable
described work and model, we have not
negatively. In our case, competitor 2 exclu-
insight into the market mechanics, allow-
accounted for such moderating effects
sively used radio for its special potential
ing marketers to fine tune the messaging
of a synchronous application of various
March 2010 JOURNAL
OF ADVERTISING RESEARCH 47
7. Can Old Media Enhance New Media?
In the context of social networks, word of mouth has a
Drèze, X., and F-X. Hussherr. “Internet Adver-
major impact on driving traffic to the Web site.
tive Marketing 17, 4, (2003): 8–23.
tising: Is Anybody Watching?” Journal of Interac-
Evans, D. “The Online Advertising Industry:
channels. This certainly opens an exciting
different fragments and experiences needs
Economics, Evolution, and Privacy.” Journal of
field for further highly relevant research.
to be the everyday challenge for any mar-
Economic Perspectives 23, 3, (2009): 37–60.
The findings seem to be of general value
keter (Rubinson, 2009).
and can be translated to other online mar-
Freeman L. “Why Internet Brands Take Offline
kets and categories. For future research,
Dr. Markus Pfeiffer is the managing partner of the
however, an extension or validation of
London and Munich offices and cofounder of the
the existing results into other Internet
European operations of Vivaldi Partners. Recently,
Fulgoni, G. M., and M. P. Mörn. “Whither the
pure play categories beyond social net-
he has led major innovation and growth initiatives
Click. How Online Advertising Works.” Journal
works (e.g., Internet retailers appear to be
for consumer brands in the telecommunications and
of Advertising Research 49, 2, (2009): 134–142.
Avenues.” Marketing News, July 19, (1999): 4.
relevant) is required. With the existence
technology sector. He is a regularly invited speaker at
and relevance of other mediating vari-
industry conferences and a visiting professor at several
Ghose, A., and S. Yang. “An Empirical Analy-
ables and the role of online-category fit as
European business schools, including TKK Helsinki
sis of Search Engine Advertising: Sponsored
online advertising revenues differ strongly
School of Business and the University of Cologne.
Search in Electronic Markets.” Management Sci-
between categories (IAB, 2009a), we expect
to see some differences in the results.
Moreover, it will be interesting to investigate the effects of another major source
of traffic for social networks—specifically,
the direct referrals on the Web site itself,
ence 55, 10, (2009): 1605–1622.
As a director of Vivaldi Partners’ Munich office,
Dr. Markus Zinnbauer advises clients within the
Google. Years of Learning on How Online Adver-
technology and utility sector. He has led quantitative
tising Builds Brands, 2008.
projects focused on brand-equity management,
marketing spend effectiveness, and efficiency of
other communities or through micro-
Hollis, N. “Ten Years of Learning on How
brand architecture options. He has authored articles
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and studies in several national and international
networks, word of mouth has a major
Advertising Research 45, 2, (2005): 255–268.
journals.
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For
example
,
Hong, W., J. Y. L. Thong, and K. Y. Tam. “Does
word-of-mouth-referrals
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