Long‐term Household Projections
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How will slower population growth and a rising average age affect household growth and the overall rate of home ownership over the long‐term? To help answer these questions, CMHC has developed long‐term, demographics‐driven projections of household and ownership growth for Canada. Richard Gabay, Senior Researcher, CMHC
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Long‐term Household Projections
- 1. Long-term Household Growth Projections Richard GabayHousing Needs Policy and Research GroupPolicy and Research Division Presentation to NHRC Working Group on Housing Data 2 November 2009
- 2. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2 Presentation Overview
- 3. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3
- 4. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4 Household Projections at CMHC
- 5. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 5 Household Projections at CMHC
- 6. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6
- 7. PHD Modelling Framework CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7 Base population Survival rates Fertility rates Migration Projected headship rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected population (age & sex) Projected households (family & non-family, by age) Projected ownership rates (family & non-family, by age) Projected dwelling type rates (family & non-family, by tenure, age) Projected households (family & non-family, by tenure, dwelling type & age)
- 8. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8 Headship Rate Approach
- 9. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9 Household Formation vs Housing Demand
- 10. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10
- 11. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 11 Projection Scenarios
- 12. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 12 Population Growth Assumptions
- 13. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 13 International Migration Scenarios
- 14. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 14 Household Growth Assumptions
- 15. Family and Non-family Headship Rates CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 15 1971 2006 Non-family Family Non-family Family
- 19. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 19 Household Growth Projected to Decline
- 21. Biggest contribution to household growth occurred with the transition from age 15-19 to age 20-24 (1971 to 1976)
- 22. Later transitions make progressively smaller contributions to growth
- 24. Singles growth rises until 2011 in all scenarios, then declines
- 25. Apartment growth flat in High scenario until 2016, then falls gradually
- 27. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 24 Aggregate Ownership Rate Ownership rate projected to range from 66.8% to 73.5% in 2036
- 28. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 25 Owner Household Growth Likely Peaked
- 29. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 26 Renter Household Growth Projected to Rise
- 30. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 27 Projection Considerations
- 31. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 28 Major Implications
- 32. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 29
- 33. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 30 Comparison With Other Projections
- 34. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 31 Household Growth Projections *Average yearly household formation is computed over the years 2005-2010, 2010-2015 and 2015-2020. †The annual average in the last period of the projection is computed over the years 2026-2030.