ทิศทางผลกระทบภาวะโลกร้อน หลังปี 2012 โดย คุณบัณฑูร เศรษฐศิโรตม์ ผู้อำนวยการสถาบันธรรมรัฐเพื่อการพัฒนาสังคมและสิ่งแวดล้อม

1. NSTDA Academy Open House 2011
F 2012
F
F F F F ( .)
F
27 2554

2. 1. F F F Cancun Agreement
AWG on Long-Term Cooperative Action
under UNFCCC (AWG-LCA)
AWG on Further Commitments for Annex-I
Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)
2. F

4. F F
ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–

5. ‘•– ‡‰‹‡
UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol
Shared Vision : 2020 2050 Further
Developed Country commitment of
Developing Country Annex-I after 2012
1. Adaptation
2. Mitigation
NAMAs
REDD Plus etc.
3. Financial Support
4.Technology Transfer

6. ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–

7. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–
ƒ˜‡ –Š‡ ”‘…‡•• „—– ‘– –Š‡ Žƒ‡–
Ž‹ƒ–‡ …–‹‘ ”ƒ…‡”

8. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–
„ƒŽƒ…‡ ƒ…ƒ‰‡
F
F
F
F F
F

9. F
F

10. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘
• „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡•
ƒ‡• ‘–‡ ‘ˆ “—ƒ–‹ˆ‹‡† ‡…‘‘› ™‹†‡
‡‹••‹‘ ”‡†—…–‹‘ –ƒ”‰‡–• –‘ „‡ ‹’Ž‡‡–‡†
„› ƒ”–‹‡• ‹…Ž—†‡† ‹ ‡š

11. –‘ –Š‡
‘˜‡–‹‘ ƒ• …‘—‹…ƒ–‡† „› –Š‡ ƒ†
…‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡–

12. –‘ „‡ ‹••—‡†
”‰‡• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• –‘ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡
–Š‡ ƒ„‹–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ‡…‘‘› ™‹†‡ ‡‹••‹‘
”‡†—…–‹‘ –ƒ”‰‡–• –‘ ƒ Ž‡˜‡Ž …‘•‹•–‡– ™‹–Š
–Šƒ– ”‡…‘‡†‡† „› –Š‡

13. —–…‘‡
‰”‡‡• –Šƒ– –Š‡
•ŠƒŽŽ ƒ‹ –‘ …‘’Ž‡–‡ ‹–•
™‘” ’—”•—ƒ– –‘ †‡…‹•‹‘ ƒ† Šƒ˜‡ ‹–•
”‡•—Ž–• ƒ†‘’–‡† „› –Š‡ ƒ• ‡ƒ”Ž› ƒ• ’‘••‹„Ž‡ ƒ†
‹ –‹‡ –‘ ‡•—”‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘ ‰ƒ’ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡
ˆ‹”•– ƒ† •‡…‘† …‘‹–‡– ’‡”‹‘†•
”‰‡• ‡š

14. ƒ”–‹‡• –‘ ”ƒ‹•‡ –Š‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ƒ„‹–‹‘
‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡‹••‹‘ ”‡†—…–‹‘• –‘ „‡ ƒ…Š‹‡˜‡† „› –Š‡
‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽŽ› ‘” Œ‘‹–Ž› ™‹–Š ƒ ˜‹‡™ –‘ ”‡†—…‹‰ –Š‡‹”
ƒ‰‰”‡‰ƒ–‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ‡‹••‹‘• ‘ˆ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ•‡• ‹
ƒ……‘”†ƒ…‡ ™‹–Š –Š‡ ”ƒ‰‡ ‹†‹…ƒ–‡† „›

15. IPCC-Assessment Report No.4 :
Scenario Region 2020 2050
450 Annex I -25% to -40% -80% to -95%
below 1990 below 1990
ppm
CO2-eq Non-AI -15% to -30% Substantial
below Business as Deviation from
(2 C) Usual Baseline in all.
F F 2
F (Annex-I) : F F F 25-40%
F 1990 F F 2020
(Non-Annex I) : F F F 15-30%
F F F F 2020 )
Source: den Elzen and Hohne (2008)

16. Copenhagen Accord : Pledges from some Annex I
12

17. ‘’‡Šƒ‰‡ ……‘”†

18. F

19. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘
• „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡•
‰”‡‡• –Šƒ– †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ™‹ŽŽ –ƒ‡
ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ› ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• ‹ –Š‡
…‘–‡š– ‘ˆ •—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– •—’’‘”–‡† ƒ†
‡ƒ„Ž‡† „› –‡…Š‘Ž‘‰› ˆ‹ƒ…‹‰ ƒ† …ƒ’ƒ…‹–›
„—‹Ž†‹‰ ƒ‹‡† ƒ– ƒ…Š‹‡˜‹‰ ƒ †‡˜‹ƒ–‹‘ ‹ ‡‹••‹‘•
”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ –‘ „—•‹‡•• ƒ• —•—ƒŽ ‡‹••‹‘• ‹
ƒ‡• ‘–‡ ‘ˆ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ› ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘
ƒ…–‹‘• –‘ „‡ ‹’Ž‡‡–‡† „› ‘ ‡š

20. ƒ”–‹‡• ƒ•
…‘—‹…ƒ–‡† ƒ† …‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡–

21. –‘ „‡ ‹••—‡†

22. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘
• „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡•
Ž•‘ †‡…‹†‡• –‘ •‡– —’ ƒ ”‡‰‹•–”› –‘ ”‡…‘”† ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ›
ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• •‡‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
•—’’‘”– ƒ† –‘ ˆƒ…‹Ž‹–ƒ–‡ ƒ–…Š‹‰ ‘ˆ ˆ‹ƒ…‡
–‡…Š‘Ž‘‰› ƒ† …ƒ’ƒ…‹–› „—‹Ž†‹‰ •—’’‘”– –‘ –Š‡•‡
ƒ…–‹‘•
‡“—‡•–• –Š‡ •‡…”‡–ƒ”‹ƒ– –‘ ”‡…‘”† ƒ† ”‡‰—Žƒ”Ž›
—’†ƒ–‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ •—„‹––‡† „› ƒ”–‹‡• ‹ ƒ
•‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ •‡…–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡‰‹•–”›
ƒ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• …‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡–

23. ”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘ ‹ ’ƒ”ƒ‰”ƒ’Š
ƒ„‘˜‡

24. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘
…‘—”ƒ‰‡• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”‹‡• –‘
†‡˜‡Ž‘’ Ž‘™ …ƒ”„‘ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–
•–”ƒ–‡‰‹‡• ‘” ’Žƒ• ‹ –Š‡ …‘–‡š– ‘ˆ
•—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–

25. Ž—•
‡“—‡•–• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ƒ‹‹‰ –‘
—†‡”–ƒ‡ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡• ”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘ ‹ ’ƒ”ƒ‰”ƒ’Š ƒ„‘˜‡
ƒ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ •–”ƒ–‡‰› ‘” ƒ…–‹‘ ’Žƒ
„ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ ‡‹••‹‘ Ž‡˜‡Ž ƒ† ‘”
ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘” ‹ˆ ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ƒ• ƒ ‹–‡”‹
‡ƒ•—”‡ •—„ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ ‡‹••‹‘ Ž‡˜‡Ž•
ƒ† ‘” ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž•
… ”‘„—•– ƒ† –”ƒ•’ƒ”‡– ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•–
‘‹–‘”‹‰ •›•–‡ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘‹–‘”‹‰ ƒ† ”‡’‘”–‹‰
‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•

26. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–
ƒ˜‡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ

27. –‡”‡•–
„—– ‘–
Ž‘„ƒŽ

28. –‡”‡•–
PRESS TRUST OF INDIA

29. †‹ƒ –‘†ƒ› •ƒ‹† –Šƒ– –Š‡

30. …‘—–”‹‡• ™‡”‡ ˜‡”› Šƒ’’› ™‹–Š
–Š‡ –™‘ †”ƒˆ– –‡š–•
“Jairam Ramesh, Environment Minister”

31. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ

32. –‡”‡•– Ž‹ƒ–‡ Šƒ‰‡

33. Šƒ”‡† ‹•‹‘
‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ –‡’‡”ƒ–—”‡ „‡Ž‘™ ° ƒ„‘˜‡ ’”‡
‹†—•–”‹ƒŽ Ž‡˜‡Ž• ƒ† –Šƒ– ƒ”–‹‡• •Š‘—Ž† –ƒ‡ —”‰‡–
ƒ…–‹‘ –‘ ‡‡– –Š‹• Ž‘‰ –‡” ‰‘ƒŽ …‘•‹•–‡– ™‹–Š
•…‹‡…‡ ƒ† ‘ –Š‡ „ƒ•‹• ‘ˆ ‡“—‹–›
”‡†—…‹‰ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ‡‹••‹‘• „› ƒ† –‘
…‘•‹†‡” ‹– ƒ–
‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ’‡ƒ‹‰ ‘ˆ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘• „ƒ•‡†
‘ –Š‡ „‡•– ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ •…‹‡–‹ˆ‹… ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ†
‡“—‹–ƒ„Ž‡ ƒ……‡•• –‘ •—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– ƒ† –‘
…‘•‹†‡” ƒ–

36. ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–
F
ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ

37. –‡”‡•–
Ž‘„ƒŽ

38. –‡”‡•–

39. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ

40. –‡”‡•– ‘Ž‹…› ‘•‹–‹‘
Low Carbon Development
Green Growth ( Rio + 20)
NAMAs Co-Benefit
Policies
REDD Plus

41. F F
•
Ž—•
/
/
F F/

43. ‘Ž—–ƒ”› ƒ”„‘ ƒ”‡–

47. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ

48. –‡”‡•– ‡…Š‹…ƒŽ

49. ••—‡•
›•–‡
Ž—• ‡ˆ ‹••‹‘ ‡˜‡Ž
F F
F F

50. Ž‘„ƒŽ

51. –‡”‡•– Policy / Strategy
F Post -2012
Climate Change Regime ??
N1 : F F F F
F US F F F BASIC F?
F US, EU, JP F F ?
F F ? ? F 20 %
BAU F 40%

52. F F F
Target 2 C : 2020
AN-I :-25% to -40%
below 1990
NA-I : -15% to -30%
below BAU F
F F
F : -30% BAU F : 30-50 % BAU
F : -15% BAU F : 15-40 % BAU
F 107 MtC02eq.
2020 21% BAU

53. Ž‘„ƒŽ

54. –‡”‡•– Policy / Strategy
F Post -2012 Climate
Change Regime ??
F?
?
F+ ?

55. Ž‹ƒ–‡ Šƒ‰‡

56. Ž‘„ƒŽ

57. –‡”‡•– ‡…Š‹…ƒŽ

58. ••—‡•
F F „‡Ž‘™
‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‡…Šƒ‹•
‡…Š‹…ƒŽ ”ƒ•ˆ‡” ‡…Šƒ‹•