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Peter Nijkamp and Karima Kourtit
develop a
                                                                       develop an effective      balanced national
                                turn mass population       manage
                                                                     policy to ensure that the         (or supra-
                                 movement towards       sustainable
       design a spatially-                                                   benefits of         national) strategy   manage production
                                                       accessibility
   integrated and balanced urban agglomerations and mobility              agglomeration              for emerging    and investments to the
    urban land use strategy into new opportunities        of urban
                                                                      advantages are higher         connected city   benefit of sustainable
    that is compatible with                                           than their social costs           systems            economic
                                   design of fit-for-      systems
   ecological sustainability/                          through new                                                   development of urban
                                       purpose                          develop effective        satisfy the socio-
                                                        logistic and                                                         areas
                                     institutional                     measures for eco-       economic demand of
need for conflict management                          infrastructura
                                   mechanisms and                         friendly and         an increasingly large
   and pro-active inclusions                             l concepts
                                    structures in a                     climate-neutral            share of urban
 strategies for less privileged
                                      multi-layer                        metropolitan          population for high-
     groups in urban areas
                                  dynamic system of                           areas                quality urban
                                     urban areas                                                      amenities
STRIKING FACTS
 More than 50 percent of the world population
   already lives in urban areas: ‘the new urban
   century’

 Double urbanization: big cities grow into
   mega-cities (including political power) and
   medium-sized cities grow even faster into big
   cities, e.g. China’s plan for Pearl River Delta

 Megacities: competitive advantages
   (opportunities for various stakeholders

 Santa Fe hypothesis (Geoffrey West)
  (‘15% rule’)  Urban scaling: efficiency and
  performance rise with city size (15 percent
  efficiency rise for doubling of cities)


 Need for strategic foresight studies to
   support policy and smart response
             (Prof. Ratcliffe)
EUROPEAN SMART RESPONSE TO
    THESE CHALLENGES:
manage                                 develop a
                                                 sustainable 6develop an effective        balanced
                                                                                                              manage
     design a spatially-     turn mass                        policy to ensure that      national (or
                                                accessibility                                             production and
       integrated and        population                          the benefits of      supra-national)
                                                and mobility                                              investments to
      balanced urban         movement                            agglomeration           strategy for
                                                  of urban                                                 the benefit of
     land use strategy     towards urban                         advantages are           emerging
                                                   systems                                                  sustainable
     that is compatible agglomerations                          higher than their        connected
                                               through new                                                  economic
      with ecological         into new                             social costs        city systems
                                              logistic and                                                development
      sustainability       opportunities
                                              infrastructu                           satisfy the socio-   of urban areas
                                              ral concepts         develop          economic demand
      need for conflict                                            effective
  management and pro-                                                               of an increasingly
                                 design of fit-for-purpose      measures for
active inclusions strategies                                                           large share of
                                      institutional            eco-friendly
   for less privileged                                                               urban population
                                    mechanisms and             and climate-
 groups in urban areas                                                              for high-quality
                                structures in a multi-layer       neutral           urban amenities
                                dynamic system of urban        metropolitan
                                           areas                    areas
Rethink and manage the increasing urban orientation and
 concentration of people in Europe, with the aim:

• to sustain and enhance urban quality in cities as a place
  of vitality, liveability and spatial interactivity for
  European citizens

• to create and exploit synergy from an urbanized Europe
  from an economic, social, cultural, logistic and
  technological perspective, leading to a strengthened
  global position of Europe
9
 Provides decision makers and the scientific community at large
  with research, development and demonstration road maps to
  achieve the short (2010), medium (2020) and long term (2040-
  2050) goals of JPI Urban Europe plans

 Proposes a multifaceted but focused approach: it presents different
  interconnections and synergies between research areas. These
  interrelations between the different research domains reflect the
  wide range of different perspectives which have been incorporated
  due to the active participation of different stakeholders

 Elaboration on the four pivotal thematic areas of the JPI Urban
  Europe Vision, namely Society, Mobility, Ecology, and Economy
  and Innovation (which identify many specific research topics)
FOUR INTERRELATED PILLARS
                                        10
                              INNOVATION &
                                ECONOMIC
                                 VITALITY
                           Society                 Ecology



   SOCIAL
                                  STRATEGY                    SMART LOGISTICS
PARTICIPATION
                                     &                                  &
      &                            VISION                        SUSTAINABLE
SOCIAL CAPITAL                                    Economy          MOBILITY
                           Mobility
                                                     &
                                                 Innovation

                               ECOLOGICAL
                            SUSTAINABILITY


          Illustration of the interdependencies between the 4 Pillars of the SRA
11
      EUROPE
   CORNERSTONES             CHALLENGES

                                   The Pioneer City 2050
   SOCIETY:
  social participation
    & social capital

                                    The Connected City
  MOBILITY:                               2050
    smart logistics &
  sustainable mobility


  ECOLOGY:                           The Liveable City
ecological sustainability                  2050



   ECONOMY
& INNOVATION:                        The Entrepreneurial
    economic vitality                      City 2050
Urban Images 2050
4 PILLARS & 4 URBAN IMAGES 2050
RESEARCH IDEAS
Originating from experts and stakeholders:

 • Visioning workshop (Vienna)

 • Scoping and SRA workshop (Amsterdam)




Digital                 • Research Landscape Matrix
Content
Analysis                • Flower Power Research Landscape
Research Landscape Matrix, example
 Urban
Images                 Entrepreneurial City                      Connected City                           Pioneer City                           Liveable City
      2050                    2050                                   2050                                    2050                                    2050




Strategic
Research
Issues
Urban             the EU city-landscape changing         future position competitiveness in a    • urban agglomerations              • cities are not only energy consumers
Megatrends        EU cities facing major structural      globalised world                          seedbeds of pioneer thinking      • necessity of combining different
                  changes (demography, economy,          geographical scale of networks            and societal innovation             perspectives
                  culture, etc.)                         societal and policy challenges          • etc.                              • interdependencies between
                  long-term-oriented solutions           foresee future pattern of                                                     technological and social
                  emergence and facilitation of          geographical concentration of people                                          developments
                  streams of knowledge and               and goods                                                                   • demographic trends and resilience
                  innovation                             etc.                                                                          concepts
                  steer entrepreneurs                                                                                                • human-centred perspective
                  etc.                                                                                                               • etc.

Urban             urban tacit knowledge transferred      physical-infrastructural nature, e.g.   • European urban space is             environmental benefits from public
Networks          within cities                          transport-, logistics-, and energy        heterogeneity                       transport
and               engage in entrepreneurial activities   networks.                               • European cities are diverse         advantage of technological
Connectivity      engage interdependent relations        physical connectivity in city             territories with unique             developments and innovations
                  technological state of the art         networks                                  characteristics                     understand urban planning and
                  diseconomies of agglomeration          etc.                                      etc.                                design
                  etc.                                                                                                                 etc.

Socio-            emission reduction                     respond to people’s needs                 diverse skill sets of migrants      hence environmental polluters
ecological        congestion reduction                   sustainable connectivity of cities        and native citizens                 smart environmental and energy
Sustainability    safety                                 people’s demand and behaviour           • increasing cultural diversity       initiatives (e.g., recycling, waste
of City           resource allocation                    etc.                                      and fragmentation of lifestyles     recuperation)
Systems           etc.                                                                             in European cities                  act as engines for ecologically-
                                                                                                   etc.                                benign strategies
                                                                                                                                       etc.
FLOWER POWER KNOWLEDGE LANDSCAPE
   Urban Megatrends –                                           Socio-ecological
Entrepreneurial City 2050,
                                 Urban Networks and           Sustainability of City
    Connected City 2050,            Connectivity –        Systems – Entrepreneurial
 Pioneer City 2050, Liveable     Entrepreneurial City      City 2050, Connected City
                                                           2050, Pioneer City 2050,
         City 2050              2050, Connected City           Liveable City 2050
                               2050, Pioneer City 2050,
                                  Liveable City 2050
3 STRATEGIC RESEARCH ISSUES OF URBAN EUROPE

A. Urban Megatrends
What are the prominent demographic,
economic and technological megatrends
that are decisive for a promising future of
urban systems?

B. Urban Networks and Connectivity
What are new mobility, logistic and land use
developments and policies that are needed
to create vital and attractive cities − and
networks of cities − in the decades to
come?

C. Socio-ecological Sustainability of City
Systems
Which ecological and social constellations
have to be met and implemented in order to
shape sustainable and balanced long-run
urban development patterns (including
energy systems) in Europe?
KNOWLEDGE ARENA
‘SEXY’ TOPICS
                        ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES                :
                        EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTS
THE FLYING CARPET
A collection or design of mega-trends, scenario experiments and
monitoring/information systems on the drivers and impacts of long-range mobility
and urbanization tendencies in the decades to come

A STRING OF BIG APPLES
Research issue in the Urban Europe SRF and maps out the behavioural,
technological and planning dimensions of large-scale urbanization patterns, in
particular the emergence of (virtually or physically) connected urban areas, not
only inside Europe but also worldwide

BELLISSIMO
Study of initiatives on creating sustainable and resilient cities that by far
outperform the existing urban areas in terms of efficiency, ecological quality, safety,
social participation and responsiveness to new or unforeseen challenges (including
coastal zone management in delta areas
The JPI URBAN EUROPE
ACTIVITY-INSTRUMENT
       MATRIX
Instruments →       In-kind        Tenders         Alignment of    Urban Europe   URBAN  EUROPE   Cooperation
                                                   contributions to       or          national R&D      Research       joint calls   with exciting
Activities ↓                                            MB or       Joint projects programmes with Alliance (UERA)                      bodies
                                                   organisation of                 the SRF of the JPI
                                                   workshops, etc.                   URBAN EUROPE
  I                                                                   FORESIGHT:
stock-taking and analysis of existing foresight
     results (2011)
new foresights (2012-2913)
research programming
  II                                                   SHARING OF KNOWLEDGE AND DATA:
stock-taking of existing information and data
creation of new databases
design of urban decision support systems for
      sustainable development
dissemination of Urban Europe results
      (conferences, workshops, websites, etc.)
 III                                                       Themes of the Pilot Phase:
A. Urban megatrends
A1. Patterns and Drivers of Long-Term
    Urban Dynamics
A2. Urban Indicators, Strategic Information
   Systems and Models of Urban
   Development
A. City networks and connectivity
B1. Infrastructure and Advanced Urban
    Technology
B2. New Governance Models, Public-
     Private Interaction and Future Policy
     Arenas
A. Socio-ecological sustainability
C1. Sustainability of Urban Systems
C2. Social Dynamics, Diversity and Human
   Health
C3. Vulnerable and Resilient Cities
  IV                                      Experimental projects, based on fresh research plans:
THE FLYING CARPET
A STRING OF BIG APPLES
BELLISSIMO
AMBITION VIA HIERARCHY PYRAMID:
AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE STRATEGIC RESEARCH
                  AGENDA

                              EUROPEAN JOINT
                4              COORDINATION




                3


                2


                1
                               NATIONAL WEAK
                                COORDINATION
The stakeholders involved are in particular:


 University and research organizations / institutes

 European associations and interest organizations in
 the urban field (incl. private actors)
 European cooperative research constellations

 Public bodies with an urban interest (ministries,
 public organizations, city associations)
 Funding agencies
COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES
29

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Kourtit - Urban foresight - 15-09-2011

  • 1. Peter Nijkamp and Karima Kourtit
  • 2. develop a develop an effective balanced national turn mass population manage policy to ensure that the (or supra- movement towards sustainable design a spatially- benefits of national) strategy manage production accessibility integrated and balanced urban agglomerations and mobility agglomeration for emerging and investments to the urban land use strategy into new opportunities of urban advantages are higher connected city benefit of sustainable that is compatible with than their social costs systems economic design of fit-for- systems ecological sustainability/ through new development of urban purpose develop effective satisfy the socio- logistic and areas institutional measures for eco- economic demand of need for conflict management infrastructura mechanisms and friendly and an increasingly large and pro-active inclusions l concepts structures in a climate-neutral share of urban strategies for less privileged multi-layer metropolitan population for high- groups in urban areas dynamic system of areas quality urban urban areas amenities
  • 3. STRIKING FACTS  More than 50 percent of the world population already lives in urban areas: ‘the new urban century’  Double urbanization: big cities grow into mega-cities (including political power) and medium-sized cities grow even faster into big cities, e.g. China’s plan for Pearl River Delta  Megacities: competitive advantages (opportunities for various stakeholders  Santa Fe hypothesis (Geoffrey West) (‘15% rule’)  Urban scaling: efficiency and performance rise with city size (15 percent efficiency rise for doubling of cities) Need for strategic foresight studies to support policy and smart response (Prof. Ratcliffe)
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  • 5. EUROPEAN SMART RESPONSE TO THESE CHALLENGES:
  • 6. manage develop a sustainable 6develop an effective balanced manage design a spatially- turn mass policy to ensure that national (or accessibility production and integrated and population the benefits of supra-national) and mobility investments to balanced urban movement agglomeration strategy for of urban the benefit of land use strategy towards urban advantages are emerging systems sustainable that is compatible agglomerations higher than their connected through new economic with ecological into new social costs city systems logistic and development sustainability opportunities infrastructu satisfy the socio- of urban areas ral concepts develop economic demand need for conflict effective management and pro- of an increasingly design of fit-for-purpose measures for active inclusions strategies large share of institutional eco-friendly for less privileged urban population mechanisms and and climate- groups in urban areas for high-quality structures in a multi-layer neutral urban amenities dynamic system of urban metropolitan areas areas
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  • 8. Rethink and manage the increasing urban orientation and concentration of people in Europe, with the aim: • to sustain and enhance urban quality in cities as a place of vitality, liveability and spatial interactivity for European citizens • to create and exploit synergy from an urbanized Europe from an economic, social, cultural, logistic and technological perspective, leading to a strengthened global position of Europe
  • 9. 9  Provides decision makers and the scientific community at large with research, development and demonstration road maps to achieve the short (2010), medium (2020) and long term (2040- 2050) goals of JPI Urban Europe plans  Proposes a multifaceted but focused approach: it presents different interconnections and synergies between research areas. These interrelations between the different research domains reflect the wide range of different perspectives which have been incorporated due to the active participation of different stakeholders   Elaboration on the four pivotal thematic areas of the JPI Urban Europe Vision, namely Society, Mobility, Ecology, and Economy and Innovation (which identify many specific research topics)
  • 10. FOUR INTERRELATED PILLARS 10 INNOVATION & ECONOMIC VITALITY Society Ecology SOCIAL STRATEGY SMART LOGISTICS PARTICIPATION & & & VISION SUSTAINABLE SOCIAL CAPITAL Economy MOBILITY Mobility & Innovation ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY Illustration of the interdependencies between the 4 Pillars of the SRA
  • 11. 11 EUROPE CORNERSTONES CHALLENGES The Pioneer City 2050 SOCIETY: social participation & social capital The Connected City MOBILITY: 2050 smart logistics & sustainable mobility ECOLOGY: The Liveable City ecological sustainability 2050 ECONOMY & INNOVATION: The Entrepreneurial economic vitality City 2050
  • 13. 4 PILLARS & 4 URBAN IMAGES 2050
  • 14. RESEARCH IDEAS Originating from experts and stakeholders: • Visioning workshop (Vienna) • Scoping and SRA workshop (Amsterdam) Digital • Research Landscape Matrix Content Analysis • Flower Power Research Landscape
  • 15. Research Landscape Matrix, example Urban Images Entrepreneurial City Connected City Pioneer City Liveable City 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 Strategic Research Issues Urban the EU city-landscape changing future position competitiveness in a • urban agglomerations • cities are not only energy consumers Megatrends EU cities facing major structural globalised world seedbeds of pioneer thinking • necessity of combining different changes (demography, economy, geographical scale of networks and societal innovation perspectives culture, etc.) societal and policy challenges • etc. • interdependencies between long-term-oriented solutions foresee future pattern of technological and social emergence and facilitation of geographical concentration of people developments streams of knowledge and and goods • demographic trends and resilience innovation etc. concepts steer entrepreneurs • human-centred perspective etc. • etc. Urban urban tacit knowledge transferred physical-infrastructural nature, e.g. • European urban space is environmental benefits from public Networks within cities transport-, logistics-, and energy heterogeneity transport and engage in entrepreneurial activities networks. • European cities are diverse advantage of technological Connectivity engage interdependent relations physical connectivity in city territories with unique developments and innovations technological state of the art networks characteristics understand urban planning and diseconomies of agglomeration etc. etc. design etc. etc. Socio- emission reduction respond to people’s needs diverse skill sets of migrants hence environmental polluters ecological congestion reduction sustainable connectivity of cities and native citizens smart environmental and energy Sustainability safety people’s demand and behaviour • increasing cultural diversity initiatives (e.g., recycling, waste of City resource allocation etc. and fragmentation of lifestyles recuperation) Systems etc. in European cities act as engines for ecologically- etc. benign strategies etc.
  • 16. FLOWER POWER KNOWLEDGE LANDSCAPE Urban Megatrends – Socio-ecological Entrepreneurial City 2050, Urban Networks and Sustainability of City Connected City 2050, Connectivity – Systems – Entrepreneurial Pioneer City 2050, Liveable Entrepreneurial City City 2050, Connected City 2050, Pioneer City 2050, City 2050 2050, Connected City Liveable City 2050 2050, Pioneer City 2050, Liveable City 2050
  • 17. 3 STRATEGIC RESEARCH ISSUES OF URBAN EUROPE A. Urban Megatrends What are the prominent demographic, economic and technological megatrends that are decisive for a promising future of urban systems? B. Urban Networks and Connectivity What are new mobility, logistic and land use developments and policies that are needed to create vital and attractive cities − and networks of cities − in the decades to come? C. Socio-ecological Sustainability of City Systems Which ecological and social constellations have to be met and implemented in order to shape sustainable and balanced long-run urban development patterns (including energy systems) in Europe?
  • 19. ‘SEXY’ TOPICS ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES : EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTS THE FLYING CARPET A collection or design of mega-trends, scenario experiments and monitoring/information systems on the drivers and impacts of long-range mobility and urbanization tendencies in the decades to come A STRING OF BIG APPLES Research issue in the Urban Europe SRF and maps out the behavioural, technological and planning dimensions of large-scale urbanization patterns, in particular the emergence of (virtually or physically) connected urban areas, not only inside Europe but also worldwide BELLISSIMO Study of initiatives on creating sustainable and resilient cities that by far outperform the existing urban areas in terms of efficiency, ecological quality, safety, social participation and responsiveness to new or unforeseen challenges (including coastal zone management in delta areas
  • 20.
  • 21. The JPI URBAN EUROPE ACTIVITY-INSTRUMENT MATRIX
  • 22. Instruments → In-kind Tenders Alignment of Urban Europe URBAN EUROPE Cooperation contributions to or national R&D Research joint calls with exciting Activities ↓ MB or Joint projects programmes with Alliance (UERA) bodies organisation of the SRF of the JPI workshops, etc. URBAN EUROPE I FORESIGHT: stock-taking and analysis of existing foresight results (2011) new foresights (2012-2913) research programming II SHARING OF KNOWLEDGE AND DATA: stock-taking of existing information and data creation of new databases design of urban decision support systems for sustainable development dissemination of Urban Europe results (conferences, workshops, websites, etc.) III Themes of the Pilot Phase: A. Urban megatrends A1. Patterns and Drivers of Long-Term Urban Dynamics A2. Urban Indicators, Strategic Information Systems and Models of Urban Development A. City networks and connectivity B1. Infrastructure and Advanced Urban Technology B2. New Governance Models, Public- Private Interaction and Future Policy Arenas A. Socio-ecological sustainability C1. Sustainability of Urban Systems C2. Social Dynamics, Diversity and Human Health C3. Vulnerable and Resilient Cities IV Experimental projects, based on fresh research plans: THE FLYING CARPET A STRING OF BIG APPLES BELLISSIMO
  • 23. AMBITION VIA HIERARCHY PYRAMID: AN INTEGRAL PART OF THE STRATEGIC RESEARCH AGENDA EUROPEAN JOINT 4 COORDINATION 3 2 1 NATIONAL WEAK COORDINATION
  • 24. The stakeholders involved are in particular:  University and research organizations / institutes  European associations and interest organizations in the urban field (incl. private actors)  European cooperative research constellations  Public bodies with an urban interest (ministries, public organizations, city associations)  Funding agencies
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