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Maria das Graças Silva Foster
CEO
Conference Call/Webcast
February 26th, 2014

2030 Strategic Plan and
2014-2018 Business Plan
DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the
meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of
the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts
and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect
the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry
conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate",
"believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with
similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements.
Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ
materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents
filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual
Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results
to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other
things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and
other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties
inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil
and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social
developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain
financing.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any
other reason. Figures for 2014 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this
cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking
statement contained in this presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources,
that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to
Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or
possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.

2
2030 Strategic Plan
Agenda
1. 2007 (2020 Strategic Plan) x 2013 (2030 Strategic Plan) Context: Reasons for Revising the Plan
2. Changes in Business Environments
3. Supply x Demand x Prices
4. Petrobras’ Views on Opportunities in Brazil
5. Big Choices and Petrobras’ Strategies
•

Exploration and Production

•

Refining, Transportation, Marketing and Petrochemical (RTMP)

•

Distribution

•

Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical

•

Biofuels

•

International

6. Challenges of the Corporate Segments
7. Mission, Vision 2030 e Corporate Drivers

4
Petrobras Strategic Plan: Recent History
Main Drivers for the Revision of 2013 Planning 2030 Vision

2010
Law 12.276: Transfer of Rights
Law 12.304: PPSA
Law 12.351: PSA

2007 2008
Last Offshore Shale Gas – Beginning of US
Areas Bid Shale Gas production
growth

2013
Libra Auction (Oct)
First PSA Auction
2013
Tight Oil – production
reaches 2.3 MMbpd

2008
World Economic Crisis
Brent drops to US$ 34,00/bbl
2005

2006

2006
Pre-Salt’s Discovery:
Lula (Jul)

2007

2008

2008
First Oil: Pre-Salt
Jubarte EWT (Sep)

2009

2010

2009
First Oil – Santos Pre-Salt:
Lula EWT (May)

2011

2012

2011
Libra’s discovery

2020 Strategic Plan

2013

2014

2014
Pre-salt’s production
record: 407 kbpd (Feb)

2013
Pre-salt: 300 kbpd only
7 years after discovery*

2030 Strategic Plan

• Created in: 2007

• Created in: 2013

• Drivers: pre-salt’s discovery and growth of oil
products market in Brazil.

• Drivers: changes in regulatory framework in Brazil – new
Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing Agreement
Regimes, growth in US shale gas and tight oil production
and 2008 world economic crisis.

• 13 year horizon: strategies defined to 2020, based
on 2007’s exploratory potential, not considering
future bid rounds.
*GOM=17 years,
Campos B.=11 years,
North Sea=9 years

• 17 year horizon: growth in oil production beyond 2020
demands, on top of the 2013 exploratory potential, the
incorporation of areas acquired in the new bids
(concession and PSA)
5
Petrobras’ Strategic Plan: WORLD – Business Environment 2007 x 2013
2007 – year when 2020 Strategic Plan was developed
2013 - year when 2030 Strategic Plan was developed
Positive perspective for the world economy. High
2008 world economic crisis reduces world economic growth
growth rates (2008-2012 expected GDP: 5% p.a. – Source: 1 expectations.
IMF, Oct/2007)
(Expected world GDP for 2014-2030 = 3.6% p.a. – Source:
Global Insight, 2013)
Strong growth for the Chinese economy resulting in high
Uncertainties surrounding the pace of China’s economic
commodity prices (China’s economic growth 2000-2013:
2 growth and impacts on prices. (China’s economic growth
9.8% p.a. – Source: IMF, Oct/2013)
2014-2030: 4.8 – 6.5% p.a. – Source: EIU and Global Insight,
2013)
Strong oil demand growth.
(1.8% p.a. 2003-2007 – Source: IEA, Nov/2007)
Projections for oil prices increased every year, due to
demand growth and the views on depletion in non-OPEC
production. (Average projected price for the 2007-2020
period: US$ 55/bbl in 2007 and US$ 75/bbl in 2008 –
Source: Pira, 2007 and 2008)

3 Slow-down in oil demand growth (0.7% p.a. 2013-2030 –

Great enthusiasm with biofuels.

5 Non-conventionals revolution: 2030 production: tight oil – 5.8

Perspective of growth in US dependency on oil and gas
imports (growth in LNG imports).

Source: IEA, Nov/2013)
Oil price stable with perspectives of a small decrease in the
mid-term (non-conventionals production growth in US, Irak and
4
Brazil). (2013-2030 projected price: US$ 100/bbl. Source: Pira,
2013)

MMbpd and shale gas - 745 bn m³ (Source: IEA, 2013)
Perspective for US self-sufficiency in Gas by 2019 and
6
reduction of oil imports needs from 7.9 to 3.6 MMbpd in 2030
(Source: IEA, 2013)
6
Petrobras’ Strategic Plan: BRAZIL – Business Environment 2007 x 2013
2007 – year when 2020 Strategic Plan was developed

2013 - year when 2030 Strategic Plan was developed

Perspectives of oil production growth in Brazil due to the Pre-salt’s
Deeper knowledge on the Pre-salt, with successive production records. We
discoveries. Questions on the existence and feasibility of
already have 10 production units operating in the Pre-salt layer.
technologies for Pre-salt production. Examples: salt movements; 1 Experience in the Pre-salt exploration and production and in the
H2S content; CO2 treatment and reinjection .
reservoir performance led us to the cost optimization phase.
E&P activities in Brazil were regulated solely by the concession
Three regulatory frameworks– Oil and Gas business with three
2
frameworks: Concession, Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing
framework.
Agreement
Critical resources were mapped to attract foreign suppliers to Brazil.
3 Local Content Policy is a reality. National industry presses ahead with its
There were uncertainties surrounding the naval industry’s capacity
learning curve, especially in the naval segment, with perspectives of
to meet Post-salt + Pre-Salt’s demands.
competitiveness.

Perspectives on oil products demand growth for the 2007-2011
period was 2.8% p.a.:

Perspective on oil products demand growth for the 2014-2018 period
of 2.5% p.a. and 2.2% p.a. for 2019-2030

- A 4.1% p.a. fleet growth was expected, alongside wealth creation;
- Biodiesel requirements evolving to B5 in 2010 up to 2020.

4

Great expectation on strong ethanol expansion, with the
announcement of 100 new projects (Source: Consultoria Ideia/2007)

Lower expectation for ethanol expansion, focused on the recovery of
5 agricultural productivity. Ethanol demand growth of 5.4% p.a. in the 20142030 period, being met, up to 2016, by spare capacity.

- For 2007-2011 growth amounted to 4.5% p.a. and fleet growth to 7.4% p.a.
- A 5.8% fleet growth is expected for the 2014-2018 period and 4.2% for 20192030.
- Perspective on the evolution of biodiesel requirements from the current B5 to B8
up to 2010 and B10 up to 2023, flat up to 2030

7
World Oil Supply x Demand: 2013-2020
Economic feasibility of future oil production
Supply challenges

Demand Projection and Expected Decline of
World Oil Production

120

100
90

80
70

Total 23.1 MM bpd

New Projects

101.5 MM bpd

78.4 MM bpd

Current
Production

2020

World Liquids Demand (MM bpd)

110

60
50
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

2020 Production Volume from New Projects with production start up
from 2013 on according to WoodMackenzie
Production volumes from new projects (thousand barrels per day)
0

Brazil
Venezuela
Latin Am. Others
West Africa
North Africa
Africa Others
EUA (Onshore)
Canadá Oil Sands
EUA (Golfo do México)
México
Canadá
EUA (Alasca)
Iraq
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Middle East Others
China
Australia
Asia Others
North Sea
Russia and East Europe
Caspian
Europe Others

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

2.727
1.377
1.233
2.069
814
977
1.032
960
938

Latam
5.337
Africa
3.859

Tight Oil Contribution
(382 Mbpd)

North Am.
3.810

486
365
29
1.358
1.209
231
1.012
824

Asia
2.394

453
1.118
1.593
1.558

514
224

Middle East
3.809

Europe + FSU
3.888
Total 23.1 MM bpd

Source: Wood Mackenzie Data - Global Oil Supply Tool (May/2013), developed by Petrobras, save for
Brazil data, for which the source is Petrobras’ internal estimates (Jul/2013).

8
World Oil Supply x Demand: 2013-2030
Economic feasibility of future oil production
Supply challenges

Demand Projection and Expected Decline of
World Oil Production

Challenges for New Oil Production Projects around 2030

120

• Each country has specific challenges to sustain or grow production
in the 2030 horizon:

Projects In operation

100
90

80
70

New Projects

–USA: In America, tight oil sweet spots will be more quickly explored by
2020, increasing project costs in the next decade. Uncertainties
surrounding environmental restrictions persist.

50.8 MM bpd

World Liquids Demand (MM bpd)

110

Current
Production

60

–Brazil: Focus on deep waters, for which the frequency of bid rounds,
opportunities and obligations will be the variables that companies will
consider when evaluating their participation in bids or consortia.
–Canada: High production costs lead to marginal producer status,
demanding a continuous search of efficiency gains
–Russia: Current production in advance phase of decline, demanding
substantial investment in the development of new fields, both in mature
areas and new production frontiers.
–Iraq: sustain production increase through solving internal conflicts.

• Common Challenge: Individual projects management reducing
Capex and Opex.

50
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Source: Petrobras development, based on World Energy Outlook/IEA 2013; World Oil Outlook/OPEC 2013;
CERA 2013; WoodMakcenzie 2013.

9
2030 Strategic Plan Assumptions
Brent and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices
Petrobras’ assumptions on Brent price within the most conservative range of market projections.
Petrobras’ projection for Henry Hub natural gas prices is close to the average of long term’s projections.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices in US$/MMBtu
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Projections*

2030

2027

2024

2021

2018

2015

2012

2009

2006

Petrobras

2003

Henry Hub Nat. Gas Prices in US$/MM Btu
(2014 US$)

Oil prices in US$/bbl (2010 – 2030)

2013

2014

2015-2017

2018-2030

2013

2014

2015-2017

2018-2030

US$ 107/bbl

US$ 105/bbl

US$ 100/bbl

US$ 95/bbl

3.51 US$/MMBtu

4.00 US$/MMBtu

4.60 US$/MMBtu

5.88 US$/MMBtu

* Projections: AIE (Nov/2013), PIRA (May/2013) ,
WoodMackenzie (March/2013), IHS (Jul/2013), AEO (April/2013).

* Projections: IEA/DOE (June/2012), PIRA (Jan/2013) and CERA
(Oct/20123), Barclays Capital (Nov/2012)

10
Brazil’s Sedimentary Basins: Areas Granted to Petrobras in 2007 and 2013
In 2007, Petrobras held the rights to an exploratory
area 84% larger than 2013’s.

Areas Granted to be Explored by Petrobras
in Brazil
2007: 140 thousand km²
2013: 76 thousand km²

Note: 2013 position does not include Libra and Bids 11 and 12
State Limits
Sedimentary Basin
Petrobras 100%
Petrobras and Partners

11
Petrobras’ Strategy: Choices of an Integrated Energy Company

E&P
E&P

RTMP

To produce on average 4.0 million barrels of oil per day in the 2020-2030 period, under
Petrobras’ ownership in Brazil and abroad, acquiring exploration rights to meet this objective
To supply the Brazilian oil products market, reaching a refining capacity of 3.9 million bpd, to
match domestic market demand
To maintain the leadership in the domestic market for fuels, increasing the value added and
the preference for Petrobras’ brand

DISTRIBUTION

NATURAL GAS,
ENERGY and
GAS-CHEMICAL

BIOFUELS

To add value to the businesses of the natural gas chain, ensuring the monetization of the
gas from the Pre-salt and Brazil’s land basins.
To keep the growth in biofuels, ethanol and biodiesel, alongside the domestic market for
gasoline and diesel
Perform E&P activities, focusing on oil and gas exploration in Latin America, Africa and USA

INTERNATIONAL

12
Exploration and Production
To produce on average 4.0 million
barrels of oil per day in the 20202030 period, under Petrobras’
ownership in Brazil and abroad,
acquiring exploration rights to
meet this objective

13
Oil and NGL production scenarios in Brazil
Petrobras and Estimators: 2013, 2020 to 2035
In 2035, according to estimators, Brazil’s oil production will range from 4.7 to 6.6 million barrels of oil per day.
International Energy Agency places Brazil as the 6th largest oil producer in 2035.

Million bpd

Brazil’s Average Oil Production 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd
Petrobras Vision*

1.
2.
3.
4.

Estimator

Brazil’s Oil Production
2020-2030 Average

Brazil’s Oil Production
2035

1. Petrobras - Brazil*
2. DOE
3. WoodMackenzie
4. CERA
5. AIE

5.2 million bpd
5.0 million bpd
4.9 million bpd
4.4 million bpd
5.4 million bpd in 2025

Outside SP 2030 horizon
6,6 million bpd
5,4 million bpd
4,7 million bpd
6,0 million bpd

2020-2030 Average

2035
Source: Petrobras – Dec/2013 – E&P-CORP

* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces Source: AIE 2013, DOE 2013, WoodMackenzie 2013, IHS - CERA 2013 (The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
14
for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). Any further use or redistribution of this content is strictly prohibited without a written permission by IHS. All rights reserved).
Petrobras Big Choice for the E&P segment
4 million bpd average production: 2020 to 2030, Brazil and Abroad

Million bpd

Petrobras chooses to be a company with a potential production capacity of 4 million bpd in its activities
in Brazil* and abroad, maximizing profitability.

Average Oil Production in Brazil*
Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030:
5.2 million bpd
Petrobras Average
Production in Brazil* and
Abroad 2013-2020:
3.0 million bpd

4,2

Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and Abroad
2020-2030: 4.0 million bpd
Petrobras Average Production in
Brazil* 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd

Petrobras Average Production
in Brazil* 2013-2020:
2.9 million bpd

Average 2020-2030

* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces
for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).

Source: Petrobras – Dec/2013 – E&P-CORP

15
Strategies – E&P Segment E&P: 2013-2030

1

Discover and appropriate reserves in Brazil, keeping a reserve to production ratio
above 12 years

2

Develop exploratory efforts in Brazil’s sedimentary basins, selectively and sharing
risks

3

Develop exploratory efforts for natural gas in Brazil’s sedimentary land basins

4

Maximize, with profitability, oil and gas recovery in Brazil’s concessions under
production

5

Develop Pre-salt’s Area production in Brazil

16
Refining, Transportation, Marketing and
Petrochemical (RTMP)
To supply the Brazilian oil
products market, reaching a
refining capacity of 3.9 million
bpd, to match domestic market
demand

17
Brazil: Oil and NGL production x Oil Products Demand
From 2013 base, oil products market to grow 20% by 2020 (2.7% p.a.) and 47% by 2030 (2.3% p.a.).

Million bpd

Average Oil Production in Brazil*
Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030:
5.2 million bpd

3.7
Average Oil Products Demand in Brazil
2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd

* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).

18
Brazil: Oil and NGL production x Oil Products Demand
From 2013 base, oil products market to grow 20% by 2020 (2.7% p.a.) and 47% by 2030 (2.3% p.a.).

Million bpd

Average Oil Production in Brazil*
Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030:
5.2 million bpd

Petrobras Average Oil
Production in Brazil 2013-2020:
2.9 million bpd

Petrobras Average Oil Production in
Brazil 2020-2030:
3.7 million bpd
3.7
Average Oil Products Demand in Brazil
2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd

* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).

19
Brazil: Oil and NGL Production x Oil Products Demand
Refining Expansion Aligned with the Domestic Market Growth
Petrobras’ processing capacity is expected to reach 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030.

million bpd





Oil Products Self-sufficiency:
Total throughput = Total demand

Volumes Self-sufficiency:
Oil production = oil products consumption

Average Oil Production in Brazil*
Petrobras+Third Parties+ Government 20202030: 5.2 million bpd

Petrobras Average Oil Production in
Brazil 2020-2030:
3.7 million bpd

Petrobras Average Oil Production
in Brazil 2013-2020:
2.9 million bpd

Average Demand for Oil Products in Brazil
2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd

*
PROMEGA
Increase in Capacity by 195 kbpd
OBS: Additional throughput capacity from PROMEGA (by/2016): +165 kbpd (existing refineries) + 30 kbpd (RNEST).
PROMEGA: Its goal is to increase diesel, jet fuel and gasoline production from the existing refineries, based on the increase in the capacity and efficiency of the processing units
* Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030).

20
Distribution
To maintain the leadership in
the domestic market for fuels,
increasing the value added
and the preference for
Petrobras’ brand

21
Oil Products Distribution Markets and Petrobras Market Share
Maintenance of Participation in a Growing Market
Petrobras will grow organically its market share to 38% by 2030 with an investment program in Logistics. The Brazilian
oil products market will grow 74% during this period.

Brazil’s Oil Products Retail Market
BR Distribuidora Share

Regional Growth
(2013-2030)

(million m³/year and %)
million m³

400

37%

36%

37%

38%

38%

300

126

0

40%
30%

200
100

%

129

151

163

101

79

82

95

47

47

56

62

2013

2014

2018

2020

Others

BR Distribuidora

191

119
73

20%

North
+3.4%a.a.

Center-West
+3.3%a.a.

10%
0%

Average
20202030
Market-Share BR Distribuidora

Northeast
+4.0%a.a.

Southeast
+2.6%a.a.

South
+3.6%a.a.

22
Natural Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical
To add value to the businesses
of the natural gas chain,
ensuring the monetization of the
gas from the Pre-salt and
Brazil’s land basins.

23
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Balance: 2013 - 2030
(million m³/day)
The natural gas imports and transportation infrastructure already installed is enough to meet Petrobras’ demand until 2030*.

Supply

Demand

Domestic Supply of NG¹

47

2013

2014

89

86

75
2018

8

2020

Supply E&P

Average
2020-2030

33

35

35

35

35

12

12

11

11

2013

Supply E&P
New BIDs

47

2014

2018

2020

Average
2020-2030

30
6

30
6

30
6

30
6

24

24

24

24

24

2013

2014

2018

2020

7

7

7

41
14

Flexible

To be contracted

Flexible

41

39

52

49

57
Demand

Inflexible

Average
2020-2030 **

7

4

Inflexible

2013

2014

LNG Regasification
41
14

2

NG Distributors Demand

30
6

27

50

47

Bolivia Imports

41
14

49

45

12

47

41

97

86

75
41

Thermoelectric Demand Petrobras + Third Parties

2018

2020

Average
2020-2030

Petrobras Demand: Fertilizers + Refineries
41
14

27

TRBA

7

20

20

20

20

20

2013

2014

2018

2020

Average
2020-2030 **

98

118

146

157

168

Pecém
Baía de
Guanabara

12
9
2013

Total

¹ Includes NG from Partners and Third Parties.
** Supply expects the renovation of the GSA with YPFB (Bolivia) and does not consider the need of a 4th LNG terminal.

96

16
3

13

3

21

1
5

28 1
5
22

35

3
5

27

Fertilizers
under Evaluation
Fertilizers
Refining

2014

2018

2020

Average
2020-2030

105

124

129

143

* Excludes natural gas production outflow and processing infrastructure.

Total
24
Biofuels
To keep the growth in
biofuels, ethanol and
biodiesel, alongside the
domestic market for
gasoline and diesel

25
Participation in the Biofuels Market: 2013 - 2030
Increase of Ethanol and Biofuel production, following the growth of the gasoline and diesel domestic market.
Gasoline Type A and Ethanol Market ¹
(thous. bpd)

2,000
1,500
1,000
500

934
395

986
422

1,175
559

1,275
642

Gasoline
Type A and
Ethanol
1,501 Market

Diesel and Biodiesel ²
(thous. bpd)

2,000

1,618

1,500
1,054

2014

2018

2020

¹ Consists of Gasoline Type A, anhydrous ethanol and hydrous ethanol.

Participation of PBIO in Ethanol Production

120

(thous. bpd)

80

Ethanol
Market

61
43

40

18

8
0
2013

22

Average
2020-2030

26

0
2013

2020

100

107

152

2014

2018

2020

Average
2020-2030

Participation of PBIO in Biodiesel Production

PBIO Ethanol
+ Partners

(thous. bpd)

40
30

PBIO
Ethanol

20
10

2018

54

² Domestic market only

119

9
2014

Diesel and
Biodiesel Market
Biodiesel Market

500

60

92

1,380

1,000

822

50

0
2013

1,083

1,289

Average
2020-2030

25
18
10

8
0
2013

11

23

PBIO
Biodiesel
36 + Partners

32

PBIO
Biodiesel

16

9
2014

2018

2020

Average
2020-2030 26
International Area
Perform
E&P
activities,
focusing on oil and gas
exploration in Latin America,
Africa and USA

27
International Oil and Gas Production: 2013 - 2030
Investment through participation in exploratory opportunities in Latin America, Africa and the U.S., especially from 2019 onwards.
Act on the conservation of the natural gas supply from Bolivia to Brazil and on non-conventionals in Argentina and USA.
thousand boed

Petrobras Average International Oil and
Natural Gas Production 2020-2030: 479 kboe

Petrobras’ Average International Oil and
Natural Gas Production 2013-2020: 229 kboe

Petrobras’ Average International Oil
Production 2020-2030: 267 kbpd

Petrobras’ Average International Oil
Production 2013-2020: 123 kbpd

Average 2020-2030

28
Challenges of the Corporate Segments
Human Resources (HR)
Social Responsibility (SR)
Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency (HSEE)
Technology

29
Challenges of the Corporate Segments
Human Resources Challenges (HR)

To have an innovative and flexible human resource program, taking as a base the
appreciation of the employees and their contribution to the sustainability of
Petrobras
Social Responsibility Challenges (SR)

To ensure the alignment and integration of social responsibility in the decision
making processes and in the management of the business
Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency Challenges (HSEE)

To consolidate HSEE issues as a principle of the Company’s operations and
permanent commitment from the workforce
Technolgy Challenges

To keep the technological system recognized for providing technologies for the
sustainable growth of the Company
30
Mission, Vision 2030 and Corporate Drivers
Mission

Vision 2030

To perform in the oil and gas industry in an
ethic, safe and profitable way, with social and
environmental responsibility, providing products
suited to the needs of its clients and contributing
to the development of Brazil and the countries
where it operates.

To be one of the five largest integrated energy
companies in the world¹ and the preferred one
by its stakeholders.

Corporate Drivers
Integrated Growth

Profitability

Social and Environmental
Responsibility

¹ Metric: one of the five largest oil producers among all companies, with or without shares in stock
exchanges. (Source for calculation: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly – PIW - Annual Report )

31
2014-2018 Business
and Management Plan
Exploratory Success and Reserves Increase
46 discoveries in the last 14 months (Jan/13 – Feb/14), of which 24 were offshore (15 in Pre-salt).

TANGO(CES-161)
PITU(RNS-158)

PAD FARFAN-1(SES-176D
PAD MURIÚ-1(SES-175D)
PAD MOITA BONITA(SES-178)

PAD TAMBUATÁ SANTONIANO(GLF-35)
SÃO BERNARDO(ESS-216)
ARJUNA(ESS-211)
RIO PURUS(CXR-1DA)
EXT DE FORNO(AB-125)
EXT DE BRAVA (VD-19)
MANDARIM(MLS-105)
BENEDITO(BP-8)

FLORIM(RJS-704)
PAD IARA EXT-4(RJS-706)

SAGITÁRIO(SPS-98)

FRANCO NORDESTE(RJS-724)
FRANCO LESTE(RJS-723)
FRANCO SUL(RJS-700)
ENTORNO DE IARA-1(RJS-711)
IARA ALTO ÂNGULO(RJS-715)

JÚPITER BRACUHI(RJS-713)
NE TUPI-2(RJS-721)
SUL DE TUPI(RJS-698))

State Limit
Sedimentary Basin
100% Petrobras

Petrobras and Partners

Brazil
 Discoveries: 46
• Offshore: 24
• Onshore: 22
 Exploratory Success Ratio: 75%
 Reserves: 16.0 Billion boe
 RRR¹: 131%
> 100% for the 21st consecutive year
 R/P²: 20.0 years

Pre-Salt
 Discoveries: 14, of which 5 were pioneers
wells
 Exploratory Success Ratio: 100%
 Reserves: 300 km of SE region, 55% of GDP
¹ RRR: Reserves Replacement Ratio
² R/P: Reserve / Production

33
33
2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil and NGL Production Curve in Brazil

2014 Growth:
7.5% ± 1p.a.

Oil and NGL production operate by Petrobras in 2020 will be
4.9 million of bpd.

Versão 20/02 22:00

34
2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil, NGL and Natural Gas Production Curve in Brazil

2014 Growth:
7.5% ± 1p.a.
Versão 20/02 22:00

35
2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil and NGL Production Curve in Brazil
Oi and NGL production (million bpd)
1st Oil Forecast
2014 - 2015

9 Production Units
Concluded
 Sapinhoá Pilot
(Cid. São Paulo)
 Baúna
(Cid. Itajaí)

• Norte Pq. Baleias
(P-58) 1st Quarter
• Roncador IV
(P-62) 2º Quarter

 Lula NE Pilot
(Cid. Paraty)

• Papa-Terra
(P-61 + TAD )

 Papa-Terra
(P-63)
 Roncador III
(P-55)
• Norte Pq. Baleias
(P-58)
• Roncador IV
(P-62)

2nd Quarter

• Sapinhoá Norte
(Cid. Ilhabela)
3rd Quarter

• Iracema Sul
(Cid. Mangaratiba)
4th Quarter

• Papa-Terra
(P-61)

1st Oil Forecast
2016 - 2020
• Lula Alto

• Iracema Norte
(Cid. Itaguaí)
3rd Quarter

• Lula Central

• Lula Ext. Sul
e ToR Sul de Lula
(P-68)

• Lula Sul
(P-66)

• Lula Oeste
(P-69)

• Búzios I
(P-74)

• Búzios III
(P-76)

• Lapa

• Iara Horst
(P-70)

• Lula Norte
(P-67)
• Búzios II
(P-75)

•Tartaruga Verde and
Mestiça
• Búzios IV
(P-77)

• NE de Tupi
(P-72)
• Deep Water ES
• Iara NW
(P-71)
• Marlim I
•Revitalization

• Júpiter
• Búzios V

• Espadarte III
• Deep Water II
SE
• Marlim II
Revitalization
• Libra
• Florim

• Deep Water I
SE
• Sul Pq. Baleias
• Maromba I
• Carcará
• Entorno de Iara
(P-73)

• Papa-Terra
(TAD)

2014 Growth:
7.5% ± 1p.a.
 Production Units in operation
• Production Units Delivered in 2013
--- Production Units not bid as of Feb/2014

36
Production Units Delivered, under Construction and under Bidding

1,000 kbpd

Additional Installed Capacity Operated by Petrobras
300 kbpd

150 kbpd

P-67

1,000 kbpd

900 kbpd

1,050 kbpd
P-73

TAD
P-75
Cid. Mangaratiba

P-77

P-67

Cid. Itaguaí

P-71

P-62

Cid. Caraguatatuba

P-61

P-70
P-72

Cid. Ilhabela
P-58

P-76

Under Bidding Process:
P-55

P-63

Cid. Paraty

•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça
Deep Water ES
Marlim I Revitalization
Deep Water I SE
Maromba I
Sul do Pq. das Baleias
Carcará

P-74

PU to be bid:

P-66
P-69

P-68
Cid. Saquarema

Cid. Itajaí

•Tartaruga Verde and
Mestiça
Cid. Maricá

Cid. São Paulo

2013

PU under bidding:

2014

2015

2016

•
•
•
•
•
•

Deep Water ES
Marlim I Revitalization
Deep Water I SE
Maromba I
Sul do Pq. das Baleias
Carcará

+ 600 kbpd

+ 150 kbpd

2017

2018

37
19 New PLSVs to support the Oil Curve
PLSVs under Operation and Construction

Current Fleet = 11 PLSVs

+ 8 throughout 2014

+9

+2

3 PLSVs of 550t
(The Netherlands)

1 PLSVs of 300t
(The Netherlands)

Sunrise 270t

Deep Constructor 125t

Kommandor 3000 135t

Normand7 340t

North Ocean 102 210t

Lay Vessel 105 300t

1 PLSVs of 300t
(Suape)

1 PLSVs of 550t
(The Netherlands)

Sapura Diamante 550t

Sapura Topázio 550t

2 PLSVs of 550t
(The Netherlands)

P-58

Skandi Vitória 300t

Seven Mar 340t

Polar Onyx 275t

Seven Waves 550t

Skandi Niterói 270t

Seven Seas 430t

Coral do Atlântico 550t

Estrela do Mar 550t

2 PLSVs of 650t
(The Netherlands)

McDermott

Agile 200t

Seven Condor 230t
1 PLSVs of 300t
(Suape)

Seven Phoenix 340t
PLSV: Pipe Laying Support Vessel

2014

2014

2016

2017

38
Brazil: Oil and NGL Production x Oil Products Demand
Refining Expansion Aligned with Domestic Market Growth

Million bpd

Petrobras’ refining capacity should reach 3.3 million bpd in 2020, aligned with domestic market growth.

PROMEGA
Capacity Expansion of 195 kbpd

RNEST
1st Phase
4th Quarter

RNEST
2nd Phase
2nd Quarter

Comperj
1st Phase

Premium I
1st Phase

Premium II

PROMEGA additional refining capacity (by Dec/2016): +165 kbpd (current refineries) + 30 kbpd (RNEST).
PROMEGA targets are to increase diesel, jet fuel and gasoline production of our refineries, based on capacity and efficiency increase of processing units.

39
RNEST and COMPERJ Refineries
Physical and Financial Monitoring
IMPLEMENTION MILESTONES
1 - Start-up - ETA (Mar/2014)
2 - Start-up - ETDI (Sep/2014)
3 - Start-up UDA 11 (Oct/2014)
4 - Start-up UCR 21 (Nov/2014)
5 - Start-up HDT Diesel 31 (Nov/2014)

100
90
80

(%)

70
60

20000

50
40

18000

PNG 13-17
BMP 13-17
2014
2014
Projetado
Planned
2014
2014

BMP 13-17: 87%
Accomplished: 84%

14000

Projetado: US$
Planned
18.579 MM
US$ 18.579 MM

12000
10000
8000
4000

10

2000

0

0

PNG 12-16
BMP 12-16

PNG 13-17
BMP 13-17

Accomplished
Realizado

Projetado
Planned

PNG 13-17
BMP 13-17

100
90
80

(%)

70

60

IMPLEMENTATION MILESTONES
1 - Start-up – ETA (Jun/2015)
2 - Start-up - ETDI (Jun/2015)
3 - Start-up - UDAV (Ago/2016)
4 - Start-up - UCR (Ago/2016)
5 - Start-up - HCC (Ago/2016)

14.000

BMP 13-17
PNG 13-17
2016
2016
Planned
Projetado
2016
2016

BMP 13-17: 67%
Accomplished: 66%

50
40
30

PNG 13-17: US$
BMP 13-17
13.457 MM
US$ 13.457 MM
Projetado: US$
Planned MM
13.596
US$ 13.596 MM

12.000
10.000
8.000

BMP 13-17: 7,882 Million
Accomplished: 7,573 Million

6.000
4.000

20

2.000
mai-04
nov-04
mai-05
nov-05
mai-06
nov-06
mai-07
nov-07
mai-08
nov-08
mai-09
nov-09
mai-10
nov-10
mai-11
nov-11
mai-12
nov-12
mai-13
nov-13
mai-14
nov-14
mai-15
nov-15
mai-16
nov-16
mai-17
nov-17
mai-18
nov-18
mai-19
nov-19
mai-20
nov-20
mai-21
nov-21

10
0

Projetado
Planned

16.000

US$ MM

110

Accomplished
Realizado

Financial Monitoring – S-Curve

Physical Monitoring – S-Curve

COMPERJ

BMP 13-17: 15,246 Million
Accomplished: 14,841 Million

BMP 12-16
PNG 12-16

BMP 13-17
PNG 13-17

Accomplished
Realizado

Planned
Projetado

0

jan-10
jul-10
jan-11
jul-11
jan-12
jul-12
jan-13
jul-13
jan-14
jul-14
jan-15
jul-15
jan-16
jul-16
jan-17
jul-17
jan-18
jul-18
jan-19
jul-19
jan-20
jul-20
jan-21
jul-21

feb/14

abr-05
out-05
abr-06
out-06
abr-07
out-07
abr-08
out-08
abr-09
out-09
abr-10
out-10
abr-11
out-11
abr-12
out-12
abr-13
out-13
abr-14
out-14
abr-15
out-15
abr-16
out-16
abr-17
out-17
abr-18
out-18
abr-19
out-19
abr-20
out-20

6000

20

feb/14

PNG 13-17:
BMP 13-17
US$ 18.515 MM
US$ 18.515 MM

16000

30

Start-up: 2016

Financial Monitoring – S-Curve

abr-05
out-05
abr-06
out-06
abr-07
out-07
abr-08
out-08
abr-09
out-09
abr-10
out-10
abr-11
out-11
abr-12
out-12
abr-13
out-13
abr-14
out-14
abr-15
out-15
abr-16
out-16
abr-17
out-17
abr-18
out-18
abr-19
out-19
abr-20
out-20

Start-up: 4th Quarter

Physical Monitoring – S-Curve

110

US$ MM

RNEST

PNG 13-17
BMP 13-17

Accomplished
Realizado

Projetado
Planned

40
Natural Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical
Monetization of Natural Gas reserves by increasing the capacity of thermoelectric generation and of nitrogenous fertilizers,
as well as the NG distributor demand.
+20%
7.5

6.8

6.0

6,3

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

2013

Installed Capacity of 5.0
Thermoelectric Generation
2.5
(GW)

Thermoelectric Power Plant projects:

7,2

2014

2018

2020

49

52

0.3

1.2

0.8

New TP
Current Capacity

TP Baixada Fluminense
TP Azulão
TP Bahia II
TP Sudeste VI

Feb/2014
2017
2020
2020

0.0

+33%
60

NG Distributor
Demand
(million m³/d)

40

41

39

Infrastructure projects of NG:
Delivery gates along GASBOL and NE and
SE Network

20
0

2013

2014

2018

2020

3.5
0.8

3.5
0.7

2.7

2.8

2018

2020

+169%
4.5
Ammonia and Urea
Market Supply
(million ton/year)

3.0
1.5
0.0

1.3
1.1
2013

1.8
0.2

1.6
2014

0.2

Ammonia

Fertilizers projects:

Urea

Ammonium Sulfate
UNF III (MS)
UNF V (MG)

Feb/2014
4th Quarter - 2014
2017
41
International: Oil and Natural Gas Production
Production growth by participation in exploratory opportunities in Latin America, Africa and the USA.
Maintenance of Bolivian gas supply to Brazil and minority operation in non-conventional in Argentina and the USA.

kboed

294

253
177

152

140
92

2014-2020 Growth rate: 8.9 % p.a.
2014-2020 Growth rate: 8.7 % p.a.

2014

2015

2016

2017

Petrobras International Oil and Natural Gas Production

2018

2019

2020

Petrobras International Oil Production
42
2014-18 Business and Management Plan Fundamentals

PERFORMANCE

CAPITAL
DISCIPLINE

PRIORITY

Financiability Assumptions
• Investment Grade rating maintenance
• No new equity issuance
• Convergence with International Prices
(Oil Products)
• Partnerships and Business Models
Restructuring

2014

• Management
focused on
reaching
physical and
financial targets
of each project

• Guarantee the
expansion of
the business
with solid
financial
indicators

• Priority for
oil and
natural gas
exploration &
production
projects in
Brazil

2018

43
2014-2018 BMP Investments
Approved by the Board of Directors of Petrobras on 02/25/2014
BMP 2014-2018

US$ 220.6 billion

Financiability Assumptions

38.7
(18%)

•
10.1
(5%)
9.7
(4%)

−

Return of the debt ratios and leverage
to their limits within 24 months2

−

Leverage lower than 35%

−

2,3
(1.0%)
2.7
(1.2%)
2.2
(1%)

153.9
(70%)

Investment Grade Rating maintenance:

Net Debt/Ebitda lower than 2.5x

E&P

Downstream

Distribution

Gas and Energy

No new equity issuance
Convergence with International Prices (Oil
Products)

•

Partnerships and Business Models
Restructuring

Engineering, Technology and Materials

International

1)
2)

Biofuels

•
•

1.0
(0.4%)

Other Areas 1

Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services
Material Fact of 11/29/2013

44
2014-2018 BMP Investments: US$ 220.6 Billion
Portfolio of Projects Under Implementation, Bidding Process and Evaluation
Portfolio of Projects
Under Implementation + Under Bidding Process

Portfolio of Projects
Under Evaluation

US$ 206.8 Billion

Total Investments

US$ 13.8 Billion

US$ 220.6 Billion

Under Implementation

38.7
(18%)
10,1
(5%)
2,3
9,7
(4%) (1,0%)
153.9
(70%)

1,0
(0,4%)

2,2
(1%)

=

2,7
(1,2%)

• Projects being executed
(construction)
• Projects already bid

Under Bidding Process
•E&P projects in Brazil
•Premium I Refinery
•Premium II Refinery

+

• Projects under Studies
in Phase I, II or III
(except E&P in Brazil)

• Resources required for studies
of Projects Under Evaluation

Oil Production 2020:
4.2 million bpd
E&P

Biofuels

Downstream

Distribution

Gas and Energy

Engineering, Technology and Materials

International

No impact in Oil Production 2020

Other Areas 1

1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services

¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil that must pass through bidding process of
their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries that bidding
process will be done in 2014.

45
Petrobras Investments in Exploration and Production: US$ 153.9 billion
Total E&P
US$ 153.9 bilhões

18,0
(12%)

Production Development + Exploration
US$ 135.9 billion

23,4
(15%)

53,9
(40%)

82,0
(60%)

112,5
(73%)
Pre-Salt (Concession)

Exploration

Production Development

Infrastructure and Support

Post-Salt

Pre-Salt

Transfer of Rights
PSA (Libra)

E&P Petrobras
US$ 153.9 Billion
(77%)

+

E&P Partners
US$ 44.8 Billion
(23%)

=

Total with Partners
US$ 198.7 Billion
(100%)
46
Petrobras Investments: US$ 58.5 billion
Downstream – Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical – International
Downstream
US$ 38.7 billion
Refining Capacity Expansion
Operational Improvement
Quality and Conversion

Logistics for Oil

0,3
0,3
1%
1%

0,4
1%

1,4
3%

Projects Under Implementation

1,4
4%

3,3
9%

16,8
43%

5,5
14%

 RNEST (Pernambuco)
Premium I – 1st phase (Maranhão)
 COMPERJ 1st phase (Rio de Janeiro)
Premium II (Ceará)
 PROMEF – 45 Vessels to transport Oil
and Oil Products

Fleet Expansion
Petrochemical
Logistics for Ethanol

9,4
24%

Distribution
Corporate

0,1
1%

Gas, Energy and
Gas-Chemical

Network

Projects Under Implementation

1,3
13%

US$ 10.1 billion
Energy

Projects Under Bidding Process

2,6
25%

6,1
61%






UNF III (Mato Grosso do Sul)
UNF V (Minas Gerais)
Rote 2: Gas pipeline and NGPU
Rote 3: Gas pipeline and NGPU

Regas - LNG
Gas-Chemical Operational Units (Nitrogenous)

International
US$ 9.7 billion
Exploration & Production
Refining & Marketing
Distribution
Gas & Energy
Corporate
Petrochemical

0,05
0,5%
0,6
6%

9,0
92%

0,01
0,1% 0,05
0,5%
0,1
0,7%

Projects Under Implementation








E&P USA – Saint Malo
E&P USA – Cascade and Chinook
E&P USA – Lucius
E&P Argentina – Medanito and Entre Lomas
E&P Bolivia – San Alberto and San Antonio
E&P Nigeria – Egina
Projects under implementation, under evaluation and under bidding were included. .

47
2014-2018 BMP: Investment and Operating Costs Management

2014-2018 BMP
US$ 220.6 Billion
PRC-Poço
PROEF
Program to Increase
Operational Efficiency
UO-BC
UO-RIO

PROCOP
Operating Costs
Optimization Program

Program to Reduce Well
Costs

PRC-Sub
Program to Reduce
Subsea Facilities Costs

INFRALOG – Logistic Infrastructure Optimization Program
Local Content Management– Take advantage of the industry´s capacity to maximize gains to Petrobras
Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency

PROCOP: Focus on OPEX, operating costs of the Company activities – Manageable Operating Costs..
PRC-Poço: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to Wells construction – Investments in Drilling and Completion.
PRC Sub: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to subsea systems construction.

48
2014-2018 BMP
Incorporates operational efficiency gains from PROCOP
Costs reduction between 2013 and 2016 with potential savings of R$ 37.5 billion in nominal values

Refining Cost
(R$ thous./UEDC *):

Logistic Cost in Downstream
(R$/bbl):

Lifting Cost
(R$/boe):

34,8
32,7

Gains from PROCOP reduce Lifting Cost:

-5.9% p.a.

-7.2% p.a.

27,3 Without PROCOP
24,2 With PROCOP

2014

10,50

10,83
Without PROCOP

 Excellence level in the management of materials and spares.
 Adequacy of overhead.

10,11 With PROCOP

10,06

2014

Gains from PROCOP reduce Logistic Cost:

 Reduction in shipping costs: simplification of customs procedures; optimization
of fuel consumption; and implementation of new management tools.

+0.12% p.a.

 Optimization of inventory levels of oil and oil products.
 Reduction of stored water in the logistics system.

2018

+1.32% p.a.

1,177

Gains from PROCOP reduce Refining Cost:

1,240
Without PROCOP
With PROCOP

-0.40% p.a.

1,013

2014

gas.

2018
+0.78% p.a.

1,029

 Optimization of routine processes and resources used in the production of oil &

2018

 Integrating common and interdependent activities among refineries.
 Optimized use of support resources.
 Optimization in the consumption of energy, catalyzers and chemicals.

* UEDC = Utilized Equivalent Distillation Capacity

2014-18 period: projected with nominal values.

49
2014-2018 BMP: Financiability Analysis– US$ 206.8 billion
Total Investment

Projects Under Implementation + Projects
Under Bidding Process

Projects Under Evaluation

US$ 220.6 billion

US$ 206.8 billion

US$ 13.8 billion

Under Implementation

38.7
(18%)
10.1
(5%)
9.7
(4%)

153.9
(70%)

1,0
(0.4%)

2,3
(1.0%)

2.2
(1%)

=

2.7
(1.2%)

• Projects being executed
(construction)
• Projects already bid
• Resources required for
studies of Projects Under
Evaluation

•E&P projects in Brazil
•Premium I Refinery
•Premium II Refinery

Oil Production 2020:
4.2 million bpd
E&P

Distribution
Engineering, Technology
and Materials
Other Areas 1

+

No impact in Oil Production 2020

Biofuels

Downstream

• Projects under Studies
in Phase I, II or III
(except E&P in Brazil)

Under Bidding Process

Gas and Energy
International

1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services
2) As occurred in 2012 (2012-2016 BMP ) and in 2013 (2013-2017 BMP).

Financiability
US$ 206.8 billion
¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil that must pass through bidding process of
their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries that bidding
process will be done in 2014.

Low maturity of projects: not
considered in the
financiability analysis2

50
E&P and Dowstream Share Evolution in the Business and Management Plan
Portfolio of Projects for Financiability Evaluation
E&P share in Petrobras investments has been increasing in the last five Business and Management Plan

Investment

US$ 224.0 Billion

US$ 224.7 Billion

US$ 236.5 Billion

US$ 236.7 Billion

US$ 220.6 Billion

Portfolio of Projects for
Financiability Evaluation

70%
62%
E&P

48%
35%

52%

33%

Downstream
Other
Areas*

17%

2010-2014 BMP

15%

2011-2015 BMP

* Gas and Energy, International, BR Distribuidora, PBio , Engineering Technology and Materials (ETM) and Corporate and Services Area

56%

30%
14%

2012-2016 BMP
Total Capex

27%
18%
11%

2013-2017 BMP
Total Capex

12%

2014-2018 BMP
Total Capex

51
2014-2018 BMP: Financial Planning Assumptions
Financing analysis only incorporates projects under Implementation + Bidding = US$ 206.8 Billion

No equity issuance

Investment grade maintenance

Main Assumptions for Cash Flow Generation and Investment Levels
2014-2018 BMP is based on constant currencies from 2014.
Brent Prices (US$/bbl)

US$ 105 in 2014, declining to US$ 100 by 2017 and to US$ 95 in the long term

Average Exchange Rate (R$/US$)

R$ 2.23 in 2014, strengthening to R$ 1.92 in the long term

Leverage

Limit: < 35% │ Declining leverage (although limit surpassed in 2014)

Net Debt/ EBITDA

Limit: < 2.5x │ Limit will be surpassed in 2014 and will fall below 2.5x from 2015 and below 2.0x in
the end of period

Oil Product Prices in Brazil

Convergence of prices in Brazil to international benchmarks, according to diesel and gasoline price
policy appreciated by the Board of Directors on November 29th, 2013.

52
2014-2018 BMP: Operating Cash Flow and Funding Needs
261.7
9.1

261.7
39,8

9.9

61,3
60.5

54.9

 Additional funding needs will be funded exclusively through new
debt. No equity issuance is envisaged

US$ bilhão
US$ Billion

 Free cash flow, before dividends, from 2015 on.

165,0
182.2

Annual borrowing needs 2014-2018

207,1
206.8

Gross – US$ 12.1 billion │Net – US$ 1.1 billion

 Net borrowing needs below previous BMP due to:
Sources
Fontes

Uses
Usos

Business Model Restructuring
Cash Utilization

Third-party resources (Debt)
Operating Cash Flow (After Dividends) and Divestments

•

Higher oil production.

•

Expansion of refining capacity, reducing oil products imports.

•

Business model restructuring, which decreases cash needs
throughout the BMP.

Amortization
Investments
53
2014-2018 BMP: Leverage and Net Debt/EBITDA

Leverage

Net Debt/EBITDA

 Declining leverage, within maximum limit of 35% from 2015 on
 Net Debt/EBITDA comply with the limit from 2015 on

54
2014 – 2018
Business and Management Plan

The End

55

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2030 Strategic Plan and 2014-25018 Business Plan

  • 1. Maria das Graças Silva Foster CEO Conference Call/Webcast February 26th, 2014 2030 Strategic Plan and 2014-2018 Business Plan
  • 2. DISCLAIMER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: DISCLAIMER The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2014 on are estimates or targets. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation. NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES: CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X. 2
  • 4. Agenda 1. 2007 (2020 Strategic Plan) x 2013 (2030 Strategic Plan) Context: Reasons for Revising the Plan 2. Changes in Business Environments 3. Supply x Demand x Prices 4. Petrobras’ Views on Opportunities in Brazil 5. Big Choices and Petrobras’ Strategies • Exploration and Production • Refining, Transportation, Marketing and Petrochemical (RTMP) • Distribution • Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical • Biofuels • International 6. Challenges of the Corporate Segments 7. Mission, Vision 2030 e Corporate Drivers 4
  • 5. Petrobras Strategic Plan: Recent History Main Drivers for the Revision of 2013 Planning 2030 Vision 2010 Law 12.276: Transfer of Rights Law 12.304: PPSA Law 12.351: PSA 2007 2008 Last Offshore Shale Gas – Beginning of US Areas Bid Shale Gas production growth 2013 Libra Auction (Oct) First PSA Auction 2013 Tight Oil – production reaches 2.3 MMbpd 2008 World Economic Crisis Brent drops to US$ 34,00/bbl 2005 2006 2006 Pre-Salt’s Discovery: Lula (Jul) 2007 2008 2008 First Oil: Pre-Salt Jubarte EWT (Sep) 2009 2010 2009 First Oil – Santos Pre-Salt: Lula EWT (May) 2011 2012 2011 Libra’s discovery 2020 Strategic Plan 2013 2014 2014 Pre-salt’s production record: 407 kbpd (Feb) 2013 Pre-salt: 300 kbpd only 7 years after discovery* 2030 Strategic Plan • Created in: 2007 • Created in: 2013 • Drivers: pre-salt’s discovery and growth of oil products market in Brazil. • Drivers: changes in regulatory framework in Brazil – new Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing Agreement Regimes, growth in US shale gas and tight oil production and 2008 world economic crisis. • 13 year horizon: strategies defined to 2020, based on 2007’s exploratory potential, not considering future bid rounds. *GOM=17 years, Campos B.=11 years, North Sea=9 years • 17 year horizon: growth in oil production beyond 2020 demands, on top of the 2013 exploratory potential, the incorporation of areas acquired in the new bids (concession and PSA) 5
  • 6. Petrobras’ Strategic Plan: WORLD – Business Environment 2007 x 2013 2007 – year when 2020 Strategic Plan was developed 2013 - year when 2030 Strategic Plan was developed Positive perspective for the world economy. High 2008 world economic crisis reduces world economic growth growth rates (2008-2012 expected GDP: 5% p.a. – Source: 1 expectations. IMF, Oct/2007) (Expected world GDP for 2014-2030 = 3.6% p.a. – Source: Global Insight, 2013) Strong growth for the Chinese economy resulting in high Uncertainties surrounding the pace of China’s economic commodity prices (China’s economic growth 2000-2013: 2 growth and impacts on prices. (China’s economic growth 9.8% p.a. – Source: IMF, Oct/2013) 2014-2030: 4.8 – 6.5% p.a. – Source: EIU and Global Insight, 2013) Strong oil demand growth. (1.8% p.a. 2003-2007 – Source: IEA, Nov/2007) Projections for oil prices increased every year, due to demand growth and the views on depletion in non-OPEC production. (Average projected price for the 2007-2020 period: US$ 55/bbl in 2007 and US$ 75/bbl in 2008 – Source: Pira, 2007 and 2008) 3 Slow-down in oil demand growth (0.7% p.a. 2013-2030 – Great enthusiasm with biofuels. 5 Non-conventionals revolution: 2030 production: tight oil – 5.8 Perspective of growth in US dependency on oil and gas imports (growth in LNG imports). Source: IEA, Nov/2013) Oil price stable with perspectives of a small decrease in the mid-term (non-conventionals production growth in US, Irak and 4 Brazil). (2013-2030 projected price: US$ 100/bbl. Source: Pira, 2013) MMbpd and shale gas - 745 bn m³ (Source: IEA, 2013) Perspective for US self-sufficiency in Gas by 2019 and 6 reduction of oil imports needs from 7.9 to 3.6 MMbpd in 2030 (Source: IEA, 2013) 6
  • 7. Petrobras’ Strategic Plan: BRAZIL – Business Environment 2007 x 2013 2007 – year when 2020 Strategic Plan was developed 2013 - year when 2030 Strategic Plan was developed Perspectives of oil production growth in Brazil due to the Pre-salt’s Deeper knowledge on the Pre-salt, with successive production records. We discoveries. Questions on the existence and feasibility of already have 10 production units operating in the Pre-salt layer. technologies for Pre-salt production. Examples: salt movements; 1 Experience in the Pre-salt exploration and production and in the H2S content; CO2 treatment and reinjection . reservoir performance led us to the cost optimization phase. E&P activities in Brazil were regulated solely by the concession Three regulatory frameworks– Oil and Gas business with three 2 frameworks: Concession, Transfer of Rights and Production Sharing framework. Agreement Critical resources were mapped to attract foreign suppliers to Brazil. 3 Local Content Policy is a reality. National industry presses ahead with its There were uncertainties surrounding the naval industry’s capacity learning curve, especially in the naval segment, with perspectives of to meet Post-salt + Pre-Salt’s demands. competitiveness. Perspectives on oil products demand growth for the 2007-2011 period was 2.8% p.a.: Perspective on oil products demand growth for the 2014-2018 period of 2.5% p.a. and 2.2% p.a. for 2019-2030 - A 4.1% p.a. fleet growth was expected, alongside wealth creation; - Biodiesel requirements evolving to B5 in 2010 up to 2020. 4 Great expectation on strong ethanol expansion, with the announcement of 100 new projects (Source: Consultoria Ideia/2007) Lower expectation for ethanol expansion, focused on the recovery of 5 agricultural productivity. Ethanol demand growth of 5.4% p.a. in the 20142030 period, being met, up to 2016, by spare capacity. - For 2007-2011 growth amounted to 4.5% p.a. and fleet growth to 7.4% p.a. - A 5.8% fleet growth is expected for the 2014-2018 period and 4.2% for 20192030. - Perspective on the evolution of biodiesel requirements from the current B5 to B8 up to 2010 and B10 up to 2023, flat up to 2030 7
  • 8. World Oil Supply x Demand: 2013-2020 Economic feasibility of future oil production Supply challenges Demand Projection and Expected Decline of World Oil Production 120 100 90 80 70 Total 23.1 MM bpd New Projects 101.5 MM bpd 78.4 MM bpd Current Production 2020 World Liquids Demand (MM bpd) 110 60 50 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2020 Production Volume from New Projects with production start up from 2013 on according to WoodMackenzie Production volumes from new projects (thousand barrels per day) 0 Brazil Venezuela Latin Am. Others West Africa North Africa Africa Others EUA (Onshore) Canadá Oil Sands EUA (Golfo do México) México Canadá EUA (Alasca) Iraq Iran Saudi Arabia Middle East Others China Australia Asia Others North Sea Russia and East Europe Caspian Europe Others 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2.727 1.377 1.233 2.069 814 977 1.032 960 938 Latam 5.337 Africa 3.859 Tight Oil Contribution (382 Mbpd) North Am. 3.810 486 365 29 1.358 1.209 231 1.012 824 Asia 2.394 453 1.118 1.593 1.558 514 224 Middle East 3.809 Europe + FSU 3.888 Total 23.1 MM bpd Source: Wood Mackenzie Data - Global Oil Supply Tool (May/2013), developed by Petrobras, save for Brazil data, for which the source is Petrobras’ internal estimates (Jul/2013). 8
  • 9. World Oil Supply x Demand: 2013-2030 Economic feasibility of future oil production Supply challenges Demand Projection and Expected Decline of World Oil Production Challenges for New Oil Production Projects around 2030 120 • Each country has specific challenges to sustain or grow production in the 2030 horizon: Projects In operation 100 90 80 70 New Projects –USA: In America, tight oil sweet spots will be more quickly explored by 2020, increasing project costs in the next decade. Uncertainties surrounding environmental restrictions persist. 50.8 MM bpd World Liquids Demand (MM bpd) 110 Current Production 60 –Brazil: Focus on deep waters, for which the frequency of bid rounds, opportunities and obligations will be the variables that companies will consider when evaluating their participation in bids or consortia. –Canada: High production costs lead to marginal producer status, demanding a continuous search of efficiency gains –Russia: Current production in advance phase of decline, demanding substantial investment in the development of new fields, both in mature areas and new production frontiers. –Iraq: sustain production increase through solving internal conflicts. • Common Challenge: Individual projects management reducing Capex and Opex. 50 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Petrobras development, based on World Energy Outlook/IEA 2013; World Oil Outlook/OPEC 2013; CERA 2013; WoodMakcenzie 2013. 9
  • 10. 2030 Strategic Plan Assumptions Brent and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices Petrobras’ assumptions on Brent price within the most conservative range of market projections. Petrobras’ projection for Henry Hub natural gas prices is close to the average of long term’s projections. Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices in US$/MMBtu 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Projections* 2030 2027 2024 2021 2018 2015 2012 2009 2006 Petrobras 2003 Henry Hub Nat. Gas Prices in US$/MM Btu (2014 US$) Oil prices in US$/bbl (2010 – 2030) 2013 2014 2015-2017 2018-2030 2013 2014 2015-2017 2018-2030 US$ 107/bbl US$ 105/bbl US$ 100/bbl US$ 95/bbl 3.51 US$/MMBtu 4.00 US$/MMBtu 4.60 US$/MMBtu 5.88 US$/MMBtu * Projections: AIE (Nov/2013), PIRA (May/2013) , WoodMackenzie (March/2013), IHS (Jul/2013), AEO (April/2013). * Projections: IEA/DOE (June/2012), PIRA (Jan/2013) and CERA (Oct/20123), Barclays Capital (Nov/2012) 10
  • 11. Brazil’s Sedimentary Basins: Areas Granted to Petrobras in 2007 and 2013 In 2007, Petrobras held the rights to an exploratory area 84% larger than 2013’s. Areas Granted to be Explored by Petrobras in Brazil 2007: 140 thousand km² 2013: 76 thousand km² Note: 2013 position does not include Libra and Bids 11 and 12 State Limits Sedimentary Basin Petrobras 100% Petrobras and Partners 11
  • 12. Petrobras’ Strategy: Choices of an Integrated Energy Company E&P E&P RTMP To produce on average 4.0 million barrels of oil per day in the 2020-2030 period, under Petrobras’ ownership in Brazil and abroad, acquiring exploration rights to meet this objective To supply the Brazilian oil products market, reaching a refining capacity of 3.9 million bpd, to match domestic market demand To maintain the leadership in the domestic market for fuels, increasing the value added and the preference for Petrobras’ brand DISTRIBUTION NATURAL GAS, ENERGY and GAS-CHEMICAL BIOFUELS To add value to the businesses of the natural gas chain, ensuring the monetization of the gas from the Pre-salt and Brazil’s land basins. To keep the growth in biofuels, ethanol and biodiesel, alongside the domestic market for gasoline and diesel Perform E&P activities, focusing on oil and gas exploration in Latin America, Africa and USA INTERNATIONAL 12
  • 13. Exploration and Production To produce on average 4.0 million barrels of oil per day in the 20202030 period, under Petrobras’ ownership in Brazil and abroad, acquiring exploration rights to meet this objective 13
  • 14. Oil and NGL production scenarios in Brazil Petrobras and Estimators: 2013, 2020 to 2035 In 2035, according to estimators, Brazil’s oil production will range from 4.7 to 6.6 million barrels of oil per day. International Energy Agency places Brazil as the 6th largest oil producer in 2035. Million bpd Brazil’s Average Oil Production 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Vision* 1. 2. 3. 4. Estimator Brazil’s Oil Production 2020-2030 Average Brazil’s Oil Production 2035 1. Petrobras - Brazil* 2. DOE 3. WoodMackenzie 4. CERA 5. AIE 5.2 million bpd 5.0 million bpd 4.9 million bpd 4.4 million bpd 5.4 million bpd in 2025 Outside SP 2030 horizon 6,6 million bpd 5,4 million bpd 4,7 million bpd 6,0 million bpd 2020-2030 Average 2035 Source: Petrobras – Dec/2013 – E&P-CORP * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces Source: AIE 2013, DOE 2013, WoodMackenzie 2013, IHS - CERA 2013 (The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS. 14 for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). Any further use or redistribution of this content is strictly prohibited without a written permission by IHS. All rights reserved).
  • 15. Petrobras Big Choice for the E&P segment 4 million bpd average production: 2020 to 2030, Brazil and Abroad Million bpd Petrobras chooses to be a company with a potential production capacity of 4 million bpd in its activities in Brazil* and abroad, maximizing profitability. Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and Abroad 2013-2020: 3.0 million bpd 4,2 Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* and Abroad 2020-2030: 4.0 million bpd Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd Petrobras Average Production in Brazil* 2013-2020: 2.9 million bpd Average 2020-2030 * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). Source: Petrobras – Dec/2013 – E&P-CORP 15
  • 16. Strategies – E&P Segment E&P: 2013-2030 1 Discover and appropriate reserves in Brazil, keeping a reserve to production ratio above 12 years 2 Develop exploratory efforts in Brazil’s sedimentary basins, selectively and sharing risks 3 Develop exploratory efforts for natural gas in Brazil’s sedimentary land basins 4 Maximize, with profitability, oil and gas recovery in Brazil’s concessions under production 5 Develop Pre-salt’s Area production in Brazil 16
  • 17. Refining, Transportation, Marketing and Petrochemical (RTMP) To supply the Brazilian oil products market, reaching a refining capacity of 3.9 million bpd, to match domestic market demand 17
  • 18. Brazil: Oil and NGL production x Oil Products Demand From 2013 base, oil products market to grow 20% by 2020 (2.7% p.a.) and 47% by 2030 (2.3% p.a.). Million bpd Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd 3.7 Average Oil Products Demand in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). 18
  • 19. Brazil: Oil and NGL production x Oil Products Demand From 2013 base, oil products market to grow 20% by 2020 (2.7% p.a.) and 47% by 2030 (2.3% p.a.). Million bpd Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras + Third Parties + Government 2020-2030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2013-2020: 2.9 million bpd Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd 3.7 Average Oil Products Demand in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). 19
  • 20. Brazil: Oil and NGL Production x Oil Products Demand Refining Expansion Aligned with the Domestic Market Growth Petrobras’ processing capacity is expected to reach 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030. million bpd   Oil Products Self-sufficiency: Total throughput = Total demand Volumes Self-sufficiency: Oil production = oil products consumption Average Oil Production in Brazil* Petrobras+Third Parties+ Government 20202030: 5.2 million bpd Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.7 million bpd Petrobras Average Oil Production in Brazil 2013-2020: 2.9 million bpd Average Demand for Oil Products in Brazil 2020-2030: 3.4 million bpd * PROMEGA Increase in Capacity by 195 kbpd OBS: Additional throughput capacity from PROMEGA (by/2016): +165 kbpd (existing refineries) + 30 kbpd (RNEST). PROMEGA: Its goal is to increase diesel, jet fuel and gasoline production from the existing refineries, based on the increase in the capacity and efficiency of the processing units * Brazil’s production according to Petrobras’s view and reasoning, considering different paces for the bid rounds put forward by the Government (Petrobras’ view today, 2013, up to 2030). 20
  • 21. Distribution To maintain the leadership in the domestic market for fuels, increasing the value added and the preference for Petrobras’ brand 21
  • 22. Oil Products Distribution Markets and Petrobras Market Share Maintenance of Participation in a Growing Market Petrobras will grow organically its market share to 38% by 2030 with an investment program in Logistics. The Brazilian oil products market will grow 74% during this period. Brazil’s Oil Products Retail Market BR Distribuidora Share Regional Growth (2013-2030) (million m³/year and %) million m³ 400 37% 36% 37% 38% 38% 300 126 0 40% 30% 200 100 % 129 151 163 101 79 82 95 47 47 56 62 2013 2014 2018 2020 Others BR Distribuidora 191 119 73 20% North +3.4%a.a. Center-West +3.3%a.a. 10% 0% Average 20202030 Market-Share BR Distribuidora Northeast +4.0%a.a. Southeast +2.6%a.a. South +3.6%a.a. 22
  • 23. Natural Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical To add value to the businesses of the natural gas chain, ensuring the monetization of the gas from the Pre-salt and Brazil’s land basins. 23
  • 24. Natural Gas Supply and Demand Balance: 2013 - 2030 (million m³/day) The natural gas imports and transportation infrastructure already installed is enough to meet Petrobras’ demand until 2030*. Supply Demand Domestic Supply of NG¹ 47 2013 2014 89 86 75 2018 8 2020 Supply E&P Average 2020-2030 33 35 35 35 35 12 12 11 11 2013 Supply E&P New BIDs 47 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 30 6 30 6 30 6 30 6 24 24 24 24 24 2013 2014 2018 2020 7 7 7 41 14 Flexible To be contracted Flexible 41 39 52 49 57 Demand Inflexible Average 2020-2030 ** 7 4 Inflexible 2013 2014 LNG Regasification 41 14 2 NG Distributors Demand 30 6 27 50 47 Bolivia Imports 41 14 49 45 12 47 41 97 86 75 41 Thermoelectric Demand Petrobras + Third Parties 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 Petrobras Demand: Fertilizers + Refineries 41 14 27 TRBA 7 20 20 20 20 20 2013 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 ** 98 118 146 157 168 Pecém Baía de Guanabara 12 9 2013 Total ¹ Includes NG from Partners and Third Parties. ** Supply expects the renovation of the GSA with YPFB (Bolivia) and does not consider the need of a 4th LNG terminal. 96 16 3 13 3 21 1 5 28 1 5 22 35 3 5 27 Fertilizers under Evaluation Fertilizers Refining 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 105 124 129 143 * Excludes natural gas production outflow and processing infrastructure. Total 24
  • 25. Biofuels To keep the growth in biofuels, ethanol and biodiesel, alongside the domestic market for gasoline and diesel 25
  • 26. Participation in the Biofuels Market: 2013 - 2030 Increase of Ethanol and Biofuel production, following the growth of the gasoline and diesel domestic market. Gasoline Type A and Ethanol Market ¹ (thous. bpd) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 934 395 986 422 1,175 559 1,275 642 Gasoline Type A and Ethanol 1,501 Market Diesel and Biodiesel ² (thous. bpd) 2,000 1,618 1,500 1,054 2014 2018 2020 ¹ Consists of Gasoline Type A, anhydrous ethanol and hydrous ethanol. Participation of PBIO in Ethanol Production 120 (thous. bpd) 80 Ethanol Market 61 43 40 18 8 0 2013 22 Average 2020-2030 26 0 2013 2020 100 107 152 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 Participation of PBIO in Biodiesel Production PBIO Ethanol + Partners (thous. bpd) 40 30 PBIO Ethanol 20 10 2018 54 ² Domestic market only 119 9 2014 Diesel and Biodiesel Market Biodiesel Market 500 60 92 1,380 1,000 822 50 0 2013 1,083 1,289 Average 2020-2030 25 18 10 8 0 2013 11 23 PBIO Biodiesel 36 + Partners 32 PBIO Biodiesel 16 9 2014 2018 2020 Average 2020-2030 26
  • 27. International Area Perform E&P activities, focusing on oil and gas exploration in Latin America, Africa and USA 27
  • 28. International Oil and Gas Production: 2013 - 2030 Investment through participation in exploratory opportunities in Latin America, Africa and the U.S., especially from 2019 onwards. Act on the conservation of the natural gas supply from Bolivia to Brazil and on non-conventionals in Argentina and USA. thousand boed Petrobras Average International Oil and Natural Gas Production 2020-2030: 479 kboe Petrobras’ Average International Oil and Natural Gas Production 2013-2020: 229 kboe Petrobras’ Average International Oil Production 2020-2030: 267 kbpd Petrobras’ Average International Oil Production 2013-2020: 123 kbpd Average 2020-2030 28
  • 29. Challenges of the Corporate Segments Human Resources (HR) Social Responsibility (SR) Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency (HSEE) Technology 29
  • 30. Challenges of the Corporate Segments Human Resources Challenges (HR) To have an innovative and flexible human resource program, taking as a base the appreciation of the employees and their contribution to the sustainability of Petrobras Social Responsibility Challenges (SR) To ensure the alignment and integration of social responsibility in the decision making processes and in the management of the business Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency Challenges (HSEE) To consolidate HSEE issues as a principle of the Company’s operations and permanent commitment from the workforce Technolgy Challenges To keep the technological system recognized for providing technologies for the sustainable growth of the Company 30
  • 31. Mission, Vision 2030 and Corporate Drivers Mission Vision 2030 To perform in the oil and gas industry in an ethic, safe and profitable way, with social and environmental responsibility, providing products suited to the needs of its clients and contributing to the development of Brazil and the countries where it operates. To be one of the five largest integrated energy companies in the world¹ and the preferred one by its stakeholders. Corporate Drivers Integrated Growth Profitability Social and Environmental Responsibility ¹ Metric: one of the five largest oil producers among all companies, with or without shares in stock exchanges. (Source for calculation: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly – PIW - Annual Report ) 31
  • 33. Exploratory Success and Reserves Increase 46 discoveries in the last 14 months (Jan/13 – Feb/14), of which 24 were offshore (15 in Pre-salt). TANGO(CES-161) PITU(RNS-158) PAD FARFAN-1(SES-176D PAD MURIÚ-1(SES-175D) PAD MOITA BONITA(SES-178) PAD TAMBUATÁ SANTONIANO(GLF-35) SÃO BERNARDO(ESS-216) ARJUNA(ESS-211) RIO PURUS(CXR-1DA) EXT DE FORNO(AB-125) EXT DE BRAVA (VD-19) MANDARIM(MLS-105) BENEDITO(BP-8) FLORIM(RJS-704) PAD IARA EXT-4(RJS-706) SAGITÁRIO(SPS-98) FRANCO NORDESTE(RJS-724) FRANCO LESTE(RJS-723) FRANCO SUL(RJS-700) ENTORNO DE IARA-1(RJS-711) IARA ALTO ÂNGULO(RJS-715) JÚPITER BRACUHI(RJS-713) NE TUPI-2(RJS-721) SUL DE TUPI(RJS-698)) State Limit Sedimentary Basin 100% Petrobras Petrobras and Partners Brazil  Discoveries: 46 • Offshore: 24 • Onshore: 22  Exploratory Success Ratio: 75%  Reserves: 16.0 Billion boe  RRR¹: 131% > 100% for the 21st consecutive year  R/P²: 20.0 years Pre-Salt  Discoveries: 14, of which 5 were pioneers wells  Exploratory Success Ratio: 100%  Reserves: 300 km of SE region, 55% of GDP ¹ RRR: Reserves Replacement Ratio ² R/P: Reserve / Production 33 33
  • 34. 2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil and NGL Production Curve in Brazil 2014 Growth: 7.5% ± 1p.a. Oil and NGL production operate by Petrobras in 2020 will be 4.9 million of bpd. Versão 20/02 22:00 34
  • 35. 2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil, NGL and Natural Gas Production Curve in Brazil 2014 Growth: 7.5% ± 1p.a. Versão 20/02 22:00 35
  • 36. 2014-2018 BMP: Petrobras Oil and NGL Production Curve in Brazil Oi and NGL production (million bpd) 1st Oil Forecast 2014 - 2015 9 Production Units Concluded  Sapinhoá Pilot (Cid. São Paulo)  Baúna (Cid. Itajaí) • Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) 1st Quarter • Roncador IV (P-62) 2º Quarter  Lula NE Pilot (Cid. Paraty) • Papa-Terra (P-61 + TAD )  Papa-Terra (P-63)  Roncador III (P-55) • Norte Pq. Baleias (P-58) • Roncador IV (P-62) 2nd Quarter • Sapinhoá Norte (Cid. Ilhabela) 3rd Quarter • Iracema Sul (Cid. Mangaratiba) 4th Quarter • Papa-Terra (P-61) 1st Oil Forecast 2016 - 2020 • Lula Alto • Iracema Norte (Cid. Itaguaí) 3rd Quarter • Lula Central • Lula Ext. Sul e ToR Sul de Lula (P-68) • Lula Sul (P-66) • Lula Oeste (P-69) • Búzios I (P-74) • Búzios III (P-76) • Lapa • Iara Horst (P-70) • Lula Norte (P-67) • Búzios II (P-75) •Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça • Búzios IV (P-77) • NE de Tupi (P-72) • Deep Water ES • Iara NW (P-71) • Marlim I •Revitalization • Júpiter • Búzios V • Espadarte III • Deep Water II SE • Marlim II Revitalization • Libra • Florim • Deep Water I SE • Sul Pq. Baleias • Maromba I • Carcará • Entorno de Iara (P-73) • Papa-Terra (TAD) 2014 Growth: 7.5% ± 1p.a.  Production Units in operation • Production Units Delivered in 2013 --- Production Units not bid as of Feb/2014 36
  • 37. Production Units Delivered, under Construction and under Bidding 1,000 kbpd Additional Installed Capacity Operated by Petrobras 300 kbpd 150 kbpd P-67 1,000 kbpd 900 kbpd 1,050 kbpd P-73 TAD P-75 Cid. Mangaratiba P-77 P-67 Cid. Itaguaí P-71 P-62 Cid. Caraguatatuba P-61 P-70 P-72 Cid. Ilhabela P-58 P-76 Under Bidding Process: P-55 P-63 Cid. Paraty • • • • • • • Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça Deep Water ES Marlim I Revitalization Deep Water I SE Maromba I Sul do Pq. das Baleias Carcará P-74 PU to be bid: P-66 P-69 P-68 Cid. Saquarema Cid. Itajaí •Tartaruga Verde and Mestiça Cid. Maricá Cid. São Paulo 2013 PU under bidding: 2014 2015 2016 • • • • • • Deep Water ES Marlim I Revitalization Deep Water I SE Maromba I Sul do Pq. das Baleias Carcará + 600 kbpd + 150 kbpd 2017 2018 37
  • 38. 19 New PLSVs to support the Oil Curve PLSVs under Operation and Construction Current Fleet = 11 PLSVs + 8 throughout 2014 +9 +2 3 PLSVs of 550t (The Netherlands) 1 PLSVs of 300t (The Netherlands) Sunrise 270t Deep Constructor 125t Kommandor 3000 135t Normand7 340t North Ocean 102 210t Lay Vessel 105 300t 1 PLSVs of 300t (Suape) 1 PLSVs of 550t (The Netherlands) Sapura Diamante 550t Sapura Topázio 550t 2 PLSVs of 550t (The Netherlands) P-58 Skandi Vitória 300t Seven Mar 340t Polar Onyx 275t Seven Waves 550t Skandi Niterói 270t Seven Seas 430t Coral do Atlântico 550t Estrela do Mar 550t 2 PLSVs of 650t (The Netherlands) McDermott Agile 200t Seven Condor 230t 1 PLSVs of 300t (Suape) Seven Phoenix 340t PLSV: Pipe Laying Support Vessel 2014 2014 2016 2017 38
  • 39. Brazil: Oil and NGL Production x Oil Products Demand Refining Expansion Aligned with Domestic Market Growth Million bpd Petrobras’ refining capacity should reach 3.3 million bpd in 2020, aligned with domestic market growth. PROMEGA Capacity Expansion of 195 kbpd RNEST 1st Phase 4th Quarter RNEST 2nd Phase 2nd Quarter Comperj 1st Phase Premium I 1st Phase Premium II PROMEGA additional refining capacity (by Dec/2016): +165 kbpd (current refineries) + 30 kbpd (RNEST). PROMEGA targets are to increase diesel, jet fuel and gasoline production of our refineries, based on capacity and efficiency increase of processing units. 39
  • 40. RNEST and COMPERJ Refineries Physical and Financial Monitoring IMPLEMENTION MILESTONES 1 - Start-up - ETA (Mar/2014) 2 - Start-up - ETDI (Sep/2014) 3 - Start-up UDA 11 (Oct/2014) 4 - Start-up UCR 21 (Nov/2014) 5 - Start-up HDT Diesel 31 (Nov/2014) 100 90 80 (%) 70 60 20000 50 40 18000 PNG 13-17 BMP 13-17 2014 2014 Projetado Planned 2014 2014 BMP 13-17: 87% Accomplished: 84% 14000 Projetado: US$ Planned 18.579 MM US$ 18.579 MM 12000 10000 8000 4000 10 2000 0 0 PNG 12-16 BMP 12-16 PNG 13-17 BMP 13-17 Accomplished Realizado Projetado Planned PNG 13-17 BMP 13-17 100 90 80 (%) 70 60 IMPLEMENTATION MILESTONES 1 - Start-up – ETA (Jun/2015) 2 - Start-up - ETDI (Jun/2015) 3 - Start-up - UDAV (Ago/2016) 4 - Start-up - UCR (Ago/2016) 5 - Start-up - HCC (Ago/2016) 14.000 BMP 13-17 PNG 13-17 2016 2016 Planned Projetado 2016 2016 BMP 13-17: 67% Accomplished: 66% 50 40 30 PNG 13-17: US$ BMP 13-17 13.457 MM US$ 13.457 MM Projetado: US$ Planned MM 13.596 US$ 13.596 MM 12.000 10.000 8.000 BMP 13-17: 7,882 Million Accomplished: 7,573 Million 6.000 4.000 20 2.000 mai-04 nov-04 mai-05 nov-05 mai-06 nov-06 mai-07 nov-07 mai-08 nov-08 mai-09 nov-09 mai-10 nov-10 mai-11 nov-11 mai-12 nov-12 mai-13 nov-13 mai-14 nov-14 mai-15 nov-15 mai-16 nov-16 mai-17 nov-17 mai-18 nov-18 mai-19 nov-19 mai-20 nov-20 mai-21 nov-21 10 0 Projetado Planned 16.000 US$ MM 110 Accomplished Realizado Financial Monitoring – S-Curve Physical Monitoring – S-Curve COMPERJ BMP 13-17: 15,246 Million Accomplished: 14,841 Million BMP 12-16 PNG 12-16 BMP 13-17 PNG 13-17 Accomplished Realizado Planned Projetado 0 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 jan-13 jul-13 jan-14 jul-14 jan-15 jul-15 jan-16 jul-16 jan-17 jul-17 jan-18 jul-18 jan-19 jul-19 jan-20 jul-20 jan-21 jul-21 feb/14 abr-05 out-05 abr-06 out-06 abr-07 out-07 abr-08 out-08 abr-09 out-09 abr-10 out-10 abr-11 out-11 abr-12 out-12 abr-13 out-13 abr-14 out-14 abr-15 out-15 abr-16 out-16 abr-17 out-17 abr-18 out-18 abr-19 out-19 abr-20 out-20 6000 20 feb/14 PNG 13-17: BMP 13-17 US$ 18.515 MM US$ 18.515 MM 16000 30 Start-up: 2016 Financial Monitoring – S-Curve abr-05 out-05 abr-06 out-06 abr-07 out-07 abr-08 out-08 abr-09 out-09 abr-10 out-10 abr-11 out-11 abr-12 out-12 abr-13 out-13 abr-14 out-14 abr-15 out-15 abr-16 out-16 abr-17 out-17 abr-18 out-18 abr-19 out-19 abr-20 out-20 Start-up: 4th Quarter Physical Monitoring – S-Curve 110 US$ MM RNEST PNG 13-17 BMP 13-17 Accomplished Realizado Projetado Planned 40
  • 41. Natural Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical Monetization of Natural Gas reserves by increasing the capacity of thermoelectric generation and of nitrogenous fertilizers, as well as the NG distributor demand. +20% 7.5 6.8 6.0 6,3 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2013 Installed Capacity of 5.0 Thermoelectric Generation 2.5 (GW) Thermoelectric Power Plant projects: 7,2 2014 2018 2020 49 52 0.3 1.2 0.8 New TP Current Capacity TP Baixada Fluminense TP Azulão TP Bahia II TP Sudeste VI Feb/2014 2017 2020 2020 0.0 +33% 60 NG Distributor Demand (million m³/d) 40 41 39 Infrastructure projects of NG: Delivery gates along GASBOL and NE and SE Network 20 0 2013 2014 2018 2020 3.5 0.8 3.5 0.7 2.7 2.8 2018 2020 +169% 4.5 Ammonia and Urea Market Supply (million ton/year) 3.0 1.5 0.0 1.3 1.1 2013 1.8 0.2 1.6 2014 0.2 Ammonia Fertilizers projects: Urea Ammonium Sulfate UNF III (MS) UNF V (MG) Feb/2014 4th Quarter - 2014 2017 41
  • 42. International: Oil and Natural Gas Production Production growth by participation in exploratory opportunities in Latin America, Africa and the USA. Maintenance of Bolivian gas supply to Brazil and minority operation in non-conventional in Argentina and the USA. kboed 294 253 177 152 140 92 2014-2020 Growth rate: 8.9 % p.a. 2014-2020 Growth rate: 8.7 % p.a. 2014 2015 2016 2017 Petrobras International Oil and Natural Gas Production 2018 2019 2020 Petrobras International Oil Production 42
  • 43. 2014-18 Business and Management Plan Fundamentals PERFORMANCE CAPITAL DISCIPLINE PRIORITY Financiability Assumptions • Investment Grade rating maintenance • No new equity issuance • Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products) • Partnerships and Business Models Restructuring 2014 • Management focused on reaching physical and financial targets of each project • Guarantee the expansion of the business with solid financial indicators • Priority for oil and natural gas exploration & production projects in Brazil 2018 43
  • 44. 2014-2018 BMP Investments Approved by the Board of Directors of Petrobras on 02/25/2014 BMP 2014-2018 US$ 220.6 billion Financiability Assumptions 38.7 (18%) • 10.1 (5%) 9.7 (4%) − Return of the debt ratios and leverage to their limits within 24 months2 − Leverage lower than 35% − 2,3 (1.0%) 2.7 (1.2%) 2.2 (1%) 153.9 (70%) Investment Grade Rating maintenance: Net Debt/Ebitda lower than 2.5x E&P Downstream Distribution Gas and Energy No new equity issuance Convergence with International Prices (Oil Products) • Partnerships and Business Models Restructuring Engineering, Technology and Materials International 1) 2) Biofuels • • 1.0 (0.4%) Other Areas 1 Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services Material Fact of 11/29/2013 44
  • 45. 2014-2018 BMP Investments: US$ 220.6 Billion Portfolio of Projects Under Implementation, Bidding Process and Evaluation Portfolio of Projects Under Implementation + Under Bidding Process Portfolio of Projects Under Evaluation US$ 206.8 Billion Total Investments US$ 13.8 Billion US$ 220.6 Billion Under Implementation 38.7 (18%) 10,1 (5%) 2,3 9,7 (4%) (1,0%) 153.9 (70%) 1,0 (0,4%) 2,2 (1%) = 2,7 (1,2%) • Projects being executed (construction) • Projects already bid Under Bidding Process •E&P projects in Brazil •Premium I Refinery •Premium II Refinery + • Projects under Studies in Phase I, II or III (except E&P in Brazil) • Resources required for studies of Projects Under Evaluation Oil Production 2020: 4.2 million bpd E&P Biofuels Downstream Distribution Gas and Energy Engineering, Technology and Materials International No impact in Oil Production 2020 Other Areas 1 1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services ¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil that must pass through bidding process of their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries that bidding process will be done in 2014. 45
  • 46. Petrobras Investments in Exploration and Production: US$ 153.9 billion Total E&P US$ 153.9 bilhões 18,0 (12%) Production Development + Exploration US$ 135.9 billion 23,4 (15%) 53,9 (40%) 82,0 (60%) 112,5 (73%) Pre-Salt (Concession) Exploration Production Development Infrastructure and Support Post-Salt Pre-Salt Transfer of Rights PSA (Libra) E&P Petrobras US$ 153.9 Billion (77%) + E&P Partners US$ 44.8 Billion (23%) = Total with Partners US$ 198.7 Billion (100%) 46
  • 47. Petrobras Investments: US$ 58.5 billion Downstream – Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical – International Downstream US$ 38.7 billion Refining Capacity Expansion Operational Improvement Quality and Conversion Logistics for Oil 0,3 0,3 1% 1% 0,4 1% 1,4 3% Projects Under Implementation 1,4 4% 3,3 9% 16,8 43% 5,5 14%  RNEST (Pernambuco) Premium I – 1st phase (Maranhão)  COMPERJ 1st phase (Rio de Janeiro) Premium II (Ceará)  PROMEF – 45 Vessels to transport Oil and Oil Products Fleet Expansion Petrochemical Logistics for Ethanol 9,4 24% Distribution Corporate 0,1 1% Gas, Energy and Gas-Chemical Network Projects Under Implementation 1,3 13% US$ 10.1 billion Energy Projects Under Bidding Process 2,6 25% 6,1 61%     UNF III (Mato Grosso do Sul) UNF V (Minas Gerais) Rote 2: Gas pipeline and NGPU Rote 3: Gas pipeline and NGPU Regas - LNG Gas-Chemical Operational Units (Nitrogenous) International US$ 9.7 billion Exploration & Production Refining & Marketing Distribution Gas & Energy Corporate Petrochemical 0,05 0,5% 0,6 6% 9,0 92% 0,01 0,1% 0,05 0,5% 0,1 0,7% Projects Under Implementation       E&P USA – Saint Malo E&P USA – Cascade and Chinook E&P USA – Lucius E&P Argentina – Medanito and Entre Lomas E&P Bolivia – San Alberto and San Antonio E&P Nigeria – Egina Projects under implementation, under evaluation and under bidding were included. . 47
  • 48. 2014-2018 BMP: Investment and Operating Costs Management 2014-2018 BMP US$ 220.6 Billion PRC-Poço PROEF Program to Increase Operational Efficiency UO-BC UO-RIO PROCOP Operating Costs Optimization Program Program to Reduce Well Costs PRC-Sub Program to Reduce Subsea Facilities Costs INFRALOG – Logistic Infrastructure Optimization Program Local Content Management– Take advantage of the industry´s capacity to maximize gains to Petrobras Health, Safety, Environment and Energy Efficiency PROCOP: Focus on OPEX, operating costs of the Company activities – Manageable Operating Costs.. PRC-Poço: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to Wells construction – Investments in Drilling and Completion. PRC Sub: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to subsea systems construction. 48
  • 49. 2014-2018 BMP Incorporates operational efficiency gains from PROCOP Costs reduction between 2013 and 2016 with potential savings of R$ 37.5 billion in nominal values Refining Cost (R$ thous./UEDC *): Logistic Cost in Downstream (R$/bbl): Lifting Cost (R$/boe): 34,8 32,7 Gains from PROCOP reduce Lifting Cost: -5.9% p.a. -7.2% p.a. 27,3 Without PROCOP 24,2 With PROCOP 2014 10,50 10,83 Without PROCOP  Excellence level in the management of materials and spares.  Adequacy of overhead. 10,11 With PROCOP 10,06 2014 Gains from PROCOP reduce Logistic Cost:  Reduction in shipping costs: simplification of customs procedures; optimization of fuel consumption; and implementation of new management tools. +0.12% p.a.  Optimization of inventory levels of oil and oil products.  Reduction of stored water in the logistics system. 2018 +1.32% p.a. 1,177 Gains from PROCOP reduce Refining Cost: 1,240 Without PROCOP With PROCOP -0.40% p.a. 1,013 2014 gas. 2018 +0.78% p.a. 1,029  Optimization of routine processes and resources used in the production of oil & 2018  Integrating common and interdependent activities among refineries.  Optimized use of support resources.  Optimization in the consumption of energy, catalyzers and chemicals. * UEDC = Utilized Equivalent Distillation Capacity 2014-18 period: projected with nominal values. 49
  • 50. 2014-2018 BMP: Financiability Analysis– US$ 206.8 billion Total Investment Projects Under Implementation + Projects Under Bidding Process Projects Under Evaluation US$ 220.6 billion US$ 206.8 billion US$ 13.8 billion Under Implementation 38.7 (18%) 10.1 (5%) 9.7 (4%) 153.9 (70%) 1,0 (0.4%) 2,3 (1.0%) 2.2 (1%) = 2.7 (1.2%) • Projects being executed (construction) • Projects already bid • Resources required for studies of Projects Under Evaluation •E&P projects in Brazil •Premium I Refinery •Premium II Refinery Oil Production 2020: 4.2 million bpd E&P Distribution Engineering, Technology and Materials Other Areas 1 + No impact in Oil Production 2020 Biofuels Downstream • Projects under Studies in Phase I, II or III (except E&P in Brazil) Under Bidding Process Gas and Energy International 1) Financial Area, Strategy and Corporate-Services 2) As occurred in 2012 (2012-2016 BMP ) and in 2013 (2013-2017 BMP). Financiability US$ 206.8 billion ¹ Includes E&P projects in Brazil that must pass through bidding process of their units, as well as Premium I and Premium II refineries that bidding process will be done in 2014. Low maturity of projects: not considered in the financiability analysis2 50
  • 51. E&P and Dowstream Share Evolution in the Business and Management Plan Portfolio of Projects for Financiability Evaluation E&P share in Petrobras investments has been increasing in the last five Business and Management Plan Investment US$ 224.0 Billion US$ 224.7 Billion US$ 236.5 Billion US$ 236.7 Billion US$ 220.6 Billion Portfolio of Projects for Financiability Evaluation 70% 62% E&P 48% 35% 52% 33% Downstream Other Areas* 17% 2010-2014 BMP 15% 2011-2015 BMP * Gas and Energy, International, BR Distribuidora, PBio , Engineering Technology and Materials (ETM) and Corporate and Services Area 56% 30% 14% 2012-2016 BMP Total Capex 27% 18% 11% 2013-2017 BMP Total Capex 12% 2014-2018 BMP Total Capex 51
  • 52. 2014-2018 BMP: Financial Planning Assumptions Financing analysis only incorporates projects under Implementation + Bidding = US$ 206.8 Billion No equity issuance Investment grade maintenance Main Assumptions for Cash Flow Generation and Investment Levels 2014-2018 BMP is based on constant currencies from 2014. Brent Prices (US$/bbl) US$ 105 in 2014, declining to US$ 100 by 2017 and to US$ 95 in the long term Average Exchange Rate (R$/US$) R$ 2.23 in 2014, strengthening to R$ 1.92 in the long term Leverage Limit: < 35% │ Declining leverage (although limit surpassed in 2014) Net Debt/ EBITDA Limit: < 2.5x │ Limit will be surpassed in 2014 and will fall below 2.5x from 2015 and below 2.0x in the end of period Oil Product Prices in Brazil Convergence of prices in Brazil to international benchmarks, according to diesel and gasoline price policy appreciated by the Board of Directors on November 29th, 2013. 52
  • 53. 2014-2018 BMP: Operating Cash Flow and Funding Needs 261.7 9.1 261.7 39,8 9.9 61,3 60.5 54.9  Additional funding needs will be funded exclusively through new debt. No equity issuance is envisaged US$ bilhão US$ Billion  Free cash flow, before dividends, from 2015 on. 165,0 182.2 Annual borrowing needs 2014-2018 207,1 206.8 Gross – US$ 12.1 billion │Net – US$ 1.1 billion  Net borrowing needs below previous BMP due to: Sources Fontes Uses Usos Business Model Restructuring Cash Utilization Third-party resources (Debt) Operating Cash Flow (After Dividends) and Divestments • Higher oil production. • Expansion of refining capacity, reducing oil products imports. • Business model restructuring, which decreases cash needs throughout the BMP. Amortization Investments 53
  • 54. 2014-2018 BMP: Leverage and Net Debt/EBITDA Leverage Net Debt/EBITDA  Declining leverage, within maximum limit of 35% from 2015 on  Net Debt/EBITDA comply with the limit from 2015 on 54
  • 55. 2014 – 2018 Business and Management Plan The End 55