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Time Series Analysis Ravi

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RAVINDRA KUMAR KUMAWAT
FormationTechnologieÉconomie & finance
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TIME SERIES ANALYSIS PRESENTED BY:- CHANDRA PRAKASH GOYAL RAVINDRA KUMAR KUMAWAT PRESENTATION ON -
DEFINITION AND MEANING ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ROLE OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Seasonal Variation Secular trend
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Preliminary Adjustments before Analyzing Time Series ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
STRAIGHT LINE TREND-METHODS OF MEASUREMENT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],NON LINEAR TREND
CONVERSION OF ANNUAL TREND VALUES TO MONTHLY TREND VALUES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SHIFTING THE TREND ORIGIN
Measurement of Seasonal Variations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Example:-consumption of monthly electric power in million of Kw hours for street lighting in one of the states in India during 2004-2008 is given below: Find out seasonal variation by the method of monthly averages. Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2004 318 281 278 250 231 216 223 245 269 302 325 347 2005 342 309 299 268 249 236 242 262 288 321 342 364 2006 367 328 320 287 269 251 259 284 309 345 367 394 2007 392 349 342 311 290 273 282 305 328 364 389 417 2008 420 378 370 334 314 296 305 330 356 396 422 452
Solution: COMPUTATION OF SEASONAL INDICES BY THE METHOD OF MONTHLY AVERAGES Month Consumption of monthly electric power Monthly total for 5 years Five yearly Average Percent- age 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan. 318 342 367 392 420 1839 367.8 116.1 Feb. 281 309 328 349 378 1645 329 103.9 March 278 299 320 342 370 1609 321.8 101.6 April 250 268 287 311 334 1450 290 91.6 May 231 249 269 290 314 1353 270.6 85.4 June 216 236 251 273 296 1272 254.4 80.3 July 323 242 259 282 305 1311 262.2 82.8 Aug. 245 262 284 305 330 1426 285.2 90.1 Sept. 269 288 309 328 356 1550 310 97.9 Oct. 302 321 345 364 396 1728 345.6 109.1 Nov. 325 342 367 389 422 1845 369 116.5 Dec. 347 364 394 417 452 1974 394.8 124.7 Total 19002 3800.4 1200 Average 1.5835 316.7 100
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measurements of Cyclical Variations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Measurement of Irregular Variations ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
[object Object]

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Time Series Analysis Ravi

  • 1. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS PRESENTED BY:- CHANDRA PRAKASH GOYAL RAVINDRA KUMAR KUMAWAT PRESENTATION ON -
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
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  • 13. Example:-consumption of monthly electric power in million of Kw hours for street lighting in one of the states in India during 2004-2008 is given below: Find out seasonal variation by the method of monthly averages. Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2004 318 281 278 250 231 216 223 245 269 302 325 347 2005 342 309 299 268 249 236 242 262 288 321 342 364 2006 367 328 320 287 269 251 259 284 309 345 367 394 2007 392 349 342 311 290 273 282 305 328 364 389 417 2008 420 378 370 334 314 296 305 330 356 396 422 452
  • 14. Solution: COMPUTATION OF SEASONAL INDICES BY THE METHOD OF MONTHLY AVERAGES Month Consumption of monthly electric power Monthly total for 5 years Five yearly Average Percent- age 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan. 318 342 367 392 420 1839 367.8 116.1 Feb. 281 309 328 349 378 1645 329 103.9 March 278 299 320 342 370 1609 321.8 101.6 April 250 268 287 311 334 1450 290 91.6 May 231 249 269 290 314 1353 270.6 85.4 June 216 236 251 273 296 1272 254.4 80.3 July 323 242 259 282 305 1311 262.2 82.8 Aug. 245 262 284 305 330 1426 285.2 90.1 Sept. 269 288 309 328 356 1550 310 97.9 Oct. 302 321 345 364 396 1728 345.6 109.1 Nov. 325 342 367 389 422 1845 369 116.5 Dec. 347 364 394 417 452 1974 394.8 124.7 Total 19002 3800.4 1200 Average 1.5835 316.7 100
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