“State of socio-economic research on climate change and policy implications in the Philippines” presented by Mercedita A. Sombilla, SEARCA at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.

1. STATE OF THE ART ON THE
SOCIO-ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE PHILIPPINES
Dr. Asa Jose U. Sajise
Associate Professor
Department of Economics, CEM, UPLB
Dr. Mercedita A. Sombilla
Manager, Research and Development Department
SEARCA
Philippine Council for Agriculture,
Forestry and Natural resources
Research and Development (PCARRD)
Department of Science and Technology (DOST)
Technical Workshop and Conference on Knowledge Tools and Lessons for
Informing the Design and Implementation of Food Security Strategies in Asia
13-16 November 2011, Kathmandu, Nepal

2. OUTLINE
• What the literature is saying
– What are Climate Change risks the country is facing
– Impacts of these risks on selected AFNR sectors
– What is being done: Mitigation Literature
– What is being done: Adaptation Literature
• Analysis of the Literature: Trends and Other
Observations
• Recommendations for Future Research Areas

3. WHAT THE
LITERATURE IS SAYING
Evidences of Increasing Climate
Change Related Risks

4. EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE PHILIPPINES
Documented/Observed
● Temperature Increase (observed increase in mean, minimum, and
maximum temperatures; increased frequency of hot and cold days)
● Increased precipitation and rainfall since 1960 with pronounced
geographical differences in precipitation: Luzon and Mindanao is
getting drier while Eastern and Western Visayas is getting wetter
● Extreme weather events particularly typhoons are also increasing in
frequency (?) and strength.
● Sea level rise observed in certain areas such as Manila Bay, Northern
Luzon (La Union), and Cebu
Hazards are hydrometeorological in nature

5. Simulated Studies
•Simulated Studies mostly on temperature, precipitation
and sea level rise: Patterned from IPCC simulations and
scenarios
•Most studies done during the mid and late 1990’s by
PAGASA (Atmospheric and Geological Center in
thePhilippines) researchers: Results/predictions usually at
the national and region levels
•A lot of cross referencing and citation of these studies in
later years
EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IN THE PHILIPPINES

6. WHAT THE
LITERATURE IS SAYING
Impacts of Climate Risks on
Selected AFNR Sectors

7. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON MAJOR CC
LITERATURE IN THE PHILIPPINES
• 1990-2000
– Evidence (Science) of Changing Climate as environmental awareness
was heightened due to issues on the country’s accelerated natural
resource degradation
– Impacts and Adaptation Options as they relate to farming practices,
natural resource protection (mostly centered on rice)
– Mostly done by PAG-ASA scientists
– Physical Vulnerability (hazard/ risk identification)
• Early to mid-2000
– Impact and Adaptation Option Studies: in the form of simulations and
modeling; economic valuation studies; vulnerability and risk
assessments; adaptation studies, etc
– Mitigation studies (Forestry and Carbon Stocks)
• Late 2000
– Impact, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Options
– Economic Vulnerability (Physical Vulnerability + Adaptive Capacity)
– Adaptation Behavior (Autonomous Adaptation) Studies (Micro level)

8. Summary of Literature Review
• Literature reviewed categorized into the
following NRE sectors (adapted from the ADB
study):
– Water stress
– Decline in agricultural production
– Effects on forests
– Effects on Coastal and Marine Areas
● Studies are either observed or simulated

9. WATER STRESS: IMPACTS
Observed
•Observed or documented impacts are related to extreme events like
typhoons, massive flooding, and El Niño.
•Studies have little by way of physical quantification of impacts but often
end with some estimate of total damages
“... from 1975 to 2002, intensified tropical cyclones caused an annual
average of 593 deaths and annual damage to property worth $83 million,
including damage to agriculture of around $55 million” (Amadore, 2005)
“... Historical data for Ormoc flash flood showed that the estimated damage
cost was about PhP620 million plus other non-quantified damages” (Predo,
2010)
Simulated
• Increased precipitation results to more impacts than temperature
– Decreased run-off from modest increase in temperature and decrease in
precipitation
– Increased run-off from modest increase in temperature and increase in
precipitation
• Unlike observed impacts, simulation studies end in physical
quantification of impacts and no monetary valuation of these impacts

10. DECLINE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION:
IMPACTS
Observed impacts: on agriculture in general but could be
linked to particular crop based on location.
•Decline in agricultural production is associated with extreme
events in particular typhoons and El Niño
•Impacts in terms of quantity and value.
Simulation studies: uses a combination of IPCC story lines
linked with crop yield model (ORYZA, CERES models)
• Impacts mostly on yield decilnes in rice and corn at the
national level. One study (Lansigan and Salvacion, 2007)
contextualized simulations for some provinces (e.g. Ilagan,
Isabela; Los Baños, Laguna; and Malaybalay, Bukidnon)
• No monetary valuation of impacts

11. EFFECTS ON FOREST AREAS
• Impacts mostly observed
• Linked to typhoons: flashfloods, landslides, loss of forest
covers;
• Linked with El Niño events: forest fires
• Casual mention of changing species composition, e.g.
endemic trees like the Philippine teak (Tectona
philippinensis), has been threatened by increasing
temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns (ADB,
2008)
• Very little information on quantification both in physical and
monetary terms

12. EFFECTS ON COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS:
IMPACTS
Observed and simulation studies focused on impacts of:
•temperature increase that have resulted to coral
bleaching;
• sea level rise (for simulated studies) that is projected
to affect vast areas in the Philippines
– By 2045, 2,000 ha and about 500,000 people along
the coast of Manila Bay ( 30 cm rise under B2-mid
and A1-mid scenarios)
– By 2080, inundate over 5,000 ha of the Manila Bay
coastal area and will affect over 2.5 million people
(A2-high scenario, which shows a 100-cm)
– Coast of Manila Bay could succumb to a 1 m sea level
rise by 2100
• Note again physical quantification and very little
monetary estimates with studies based on simulation

13. WHAT IS BEING DONE
TO ADDRESS CC AND
IT’S IMPACTS
Adaptation Literature

14. ADAPTATION
• Adaptation has been classified either as:
– “Autonomous” adaptation - autonomous reaction to actual or
expected climate change (without policy interventions)
– “Planned” or “policy-driven” adaptation - result of deliberate
policy decisions/have local public good characteristics provided
by the state
– Adaptation can also be “reactive” or “proactive”, the former in
response to actual climate change impact and the latter to
anticipated climate change

15. ADAPTATION STUDIES: WHAT WE FOUND OUT
• The type of shocks matter. Households may adapt/react
differently to different shocks (e.g. permanent temperature
increases versus temporary extreme weather events).
• Household heterogeneity matters and adaptation
behavior is a product of constrained choice. Different
adaptation strategies are employed by different income and
occupational groups.
• Households tend to cope more rather than adapt to
extreme weather - thus the need for efficient social, economic
institutions and strong rural organizations.
• Household Maladaptation can have social (and economic)
consequences.

16. RECOMMENDED ADAPTATION MEASURES:
A SUMMARY
• Sustainable development/ natural resource conservation
and management policies
• Economic Policies: mostly related to correct pricing of natural
resources and insurance
• Public Investment in Infrastructure: mostly related to
engineering solutions
• Production of Knowledge and Information

17. ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION FOR
RESEARCH AREAS IN CC & THE AFNR SECTOR
A Proposed Platform for
Socio-Economic Research in the
Philippines

18. TWO KEY WORDS
• Downscaling
– Many important and significant studies on CC
are mostly global or regional in nature
– May not be useful for local level CC planning
– Action in CC would most likely be at the local
level
• Mainstreaming
– need to integrate policies and measures that
address climate change into development
planning and ongoing sectoral decision
making, so as to ensure the long term
sustainability of investments

19. SECTOR SPECIFIC STUDIES: FORESTRY
• Carbon Sequestration Studies
– Finding biomass equations to project tree growth; more accurate
carbon sequestration projections, etc.
• Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems
– Assessing Vulnerability of different forest types and different
forest species to CC related threats
– Valuation of CC impacts/ damage on forest types and different
forest species from CC related threats
• Improving and Expanding Mitigation Options in
Forestry
– Exploring potential for participation in REDD programs through
PES schemes
– Valuation of Forest Ecosystem Services under CC
– Analysis/ Identification of effective provisions/ rules in CDM/
REDD contracts that would address leakage in forestry related
mitigation activities

20. SECTOR SPECIFIC STUDIES: AGRICULTURE
• Vulnerability Assessment of Agriculture
– Agricultural Vulnerability (Economic) Mapping
• Exploring Mitigation Options for Agriculture
– Assessing the mitigation potential of agricultural projects
and explore/identify “CDMable” agricultural projects
– Evaluating the net impact of agriculture or assessing the
carbon footprint of agriculture
– Explore PES for agricultural sequestration of carbon.
– Identifying negative tradeoffs bio-fuels
• Implementing Adaptation Options in Agriculture
– Use of weather indexed insurance for agriculture.

21. SECTOR SPECIFIC STUDIES: COASTAL
With CC, the problem or view is “seaward in” or from the
coast towards inland (as with typhoons and sea level rise).
Coastal areas are “sandwiched” by hazards but very little
information on impacts of CC related risks to coastal
fisheries, inland fishery, and aquaculture.
• Vulnerability Assessment
– Impact of Climate Change on Coastal and Inland
Fisheries Productivity.
• Implementing Adaptation Options for Coastal and
Inland Fisheries
– Evaluating and valuing the protective functions of
mangroves against sea level rise and storm surges
and creating a PES type scheme to encourage
mangrove conservation
• Exploring Mitigation Options for Coastal Areas
– Opportunities for Mangrove Conservation in REDD
program

22. CROSS CUTTING STUDIES
• Vulnerability Assessment
– Identify and develop community based vulnerability
assessment methodologies. Includes coming up with
Economic vulnerability measures/ indicators for the
different sectors
• Implementing Adaptation Options in the AFNR
– BCA of Adaptation Strategies/ Options in Agriculture,
Fisheries, and Forestry.
– Analyzing adaptation behavior (i.e. choice of adaptation
strategies) and adaptive capacity of natural resource
dependent households/ communities
– Analysis of coping mechanisms of natural resource
dependent households/ agrarian reform communities
– Increasing adaptive capacity through diversified and
sustainable livelihoods
– Assessing levels of adaptation deficit for AFNR at the
household and local government unit level.

23. CONCLUDING REMARKS
• In sum, the goal of any research initiative
related to climate change is to be
relevant. Relevance entails that these
studies either lead, aid, or permit local
level action that can contribute to solving
the global problem of Climate Change...

24. Thank you!
Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and
Natural resources Research and Development
(PCARRD)
Department of Science and Technology (DOST)