1. Utah Economic Report
The Governor’s Utah Economic Summit
April 11, 2013
Natalie Gochnour
Associate Dean
David Eccles School of Business
University of Utah

2. Outline
 Utah’s race to the top
 U.S. economy “bumbling” along
 What should keep us awake at night?
 City/state reborn

3. Utah’s race to the top
A tribute to economic leadership

4. Utah Job Growth Rate
4.0% 3.3% 3.5%
3.0% 2.3%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
-2.0% -0.6%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0% -5.1%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber

5. Utah Job Creation
60,000
43,700
39,031
40,000
27,030
20,000
-
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
(20,000)
(7,217)
(40,000)
(60,000)
(63,837)
(80,000)
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber

6. Utah Number of Unemployed
120,000
105,645 109,041
100,000 90,062
80,000 76,998 73,000
51,100
60,000
40,000 36,766
20,000
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber

7. Utah Unemployment Rate
9.0% 8.0%
8.0% 7.6%
7.0% 6.7%
6.0% 5.7%
5.2%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber

8. Utah Net Migration
25,000
19,600
20,000
15,000
10,400
10,000
4,500
5,000
5,000
2,300
-
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

9. Utah Personal Income Growth Rate
6.0%
5.0%
4.6%
3.0% 4.2%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
-2.0%
-4.0%
-4.5%
-6.0%
Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

10. Utah Exports
25 (in billions)
$21.0
20 $19.0 $19.1
$13.8
15
$10.3
10
5
-
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
Source: World Trade Center Utah

11. Utah Dwelling Unit Permits
18 (in thousands)
16.0
16
14 12.7
12 10.5 9.3
10 8.8
8
6
4
2
-
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, Revenue Assumptions Working Group

12. Utah Retail Sales Growth Rate
8.0% 6.7% 6.9%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0% -8.8% -7.3%
Source: Utah State Tax Commission and Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

13. Top Seven Job Growth States
January 2012 – January 2013
U.S. average = 1.5%
North Dakota 5.4%
Utah 3.1%
Texas 2.9%
Utah has the 2nd
fastest growing
Nevada 2.5% economy
Colorado 2.5%
Washington 2.3%
North Carolina 2.2%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Year-Over Percent Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. Utah Job Growth by Industry
February 2013
Total 4.0
Natural Resources 0.0
Construction 6.7
Manufacturing 3.5
Trade, Trans, Utilities 4.5 11.5
Information
Financial Activities 6.2
Prof. and Business 4.4
Education and Health 3.2
Leisure and Hospitality 7.8
Other Services 2.6
Government 0.3
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Year-Over Percent Change
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

15. U.S. economy
bumbling along…
A criticism of economic leadership

16. The difference between the
right word and the almost
right word is the difference
between lightning and
lightning bug.
-- Mark Twain

17. Job Losses in Recent Recessions
Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. U.S. New Monthly Payroll Jobs
Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. U.S. Unemployment Rate by Duration
Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. What should keep us
awake at night?
Besides North Korea

21. Risks
 Fiscal insanity
 Utah education warning signs
 Certain uncertainty

22. Fiscal Insanity

23. Fiscal Crises Naming Conventions
• Debt ceiling stand off (August 2011) ANDREA
• Super Committee deadline (December 2011) BARRY
• Fiscal cliff negotiations (Fall 2012) CHANTEL
• Fiscal cliff (January 2013) DORIAN
• Start of sequestration (March 2013) ERIN
• Debt ceiling revisited (May 2013) FERNAD
• Next crisis GABRIELLE

24. Utah Fiscal Checklist
Balanced
AAA Bond
Budget Line Item Veto
Rating
Requirement
Rainy Day Appropriation Bond
Fund Limitation Limitation

25. U.S. Fiscal Checklist
Balanced
AAA Bond
Budget Line Item Veto
Rating
Requirement
Rainy Day Appropriation Bond
Fund Limitation Limitation

26. Utah Education
Warning Signs

27. Utah College Completion Rates are Falling
Percent Utahns with Bachelor’s Degree of Higher
By Age Cohort: 2011
34.0%
32.0% 31.5%
30.5% 30.4%
30.0% 29.3%
28.0%
26.4%
26.0%
24.0%
22.0%
20.0%
25-34 35-44 45-64 65 plus TOTAL
Source: American Community Survey, 2011

28. Utah’s Math Test Score Rankings
are Headed in Wrong Direction
35
Utah’s rank among states
30
30 29
28 28
27
26
25
25 24
20 19 19
18 18
15
12 12 12
10
10
5
0
1992 1996 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
4th Grade 8th Grade
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation’s Report Card

29. Utah Ranks Last Among Peer States
4th Grade Reading Test Scores: 2009
235
230
225
220
215
210 National
Rank
205 2 3 5 20 23 25 31
200
Source: Utah Foundation and National Assessment of Educational Progress

30. Certain Uncertainty

31. Unchartered waters

32. A City/State Reborn
The future is bright