Introduction presentation to the UK NERC's Earth System Science Summer School (ES4) (from the UoB convenor, 2007)

1. Welcome to the
2007 QUEST
Earth System Science
Summer School
University of Bristol
10 - 21 September

2. QUEST ES4 people:
Sarah Cornell - ES4 convenor
Cat Downy - ES4 organiser
QUEST office:
Colin Prentice, Leader of QUEST
Pru Foster
Jo House
Julie Shackleford

3. Colin Prentice - An introduction to
Earth system science and QUEST
Sociable time - coffee break
Sarah Cornell - Thoughts on interdisciplinary
Earth system science
Karen Morgan, OBE - discussion
Sociable time - tipples and nibbles

4. Interdisciplinarity:
Learning by Doing
Physical/hydrological systems
Biogeochemistry
Ecosystems
Socio-ecological systems
… all dynamic

6. Risk of Change in Freshwater Supply
by 2100
ΔT<2°C 2°C<ΔT<3°C
ΔT>3°C

7. The already committed risk of climate-induced biome shifts

8. Interdisciplinarity:
Two frontiers to explore
Natural & Social Sciences
Science & Policy
theory practice

9. My worldview is not
subjective or arbitrary -
just partial
“Post-Normal science” -
carries an awareness of the
limitations of a single
viewpoint in understanding
complex systems

10. Previously men could be divided simply into the
learned and the ignorant… But your specialist cannot
be brought in under either of these two categories.
He is not learned, for he is formally ignorant of all that
does not enter into his specialty; but neither is he
ignorant, because he is “a scientist” and “knows” very
well his own tiny portion of the universe.
We shall have to say that he is a learned ignoramus,
which is a very serious matter, as it implies that he is a
person who is ignorant, not in the fashion of the
ignorant man, but with all the petulance of one who is
learned is his own special line.
(Ortega e Gassett, 1932)

11. Sustainability requires
…new tools
…new roles
…new discourse

12. Sustainability requires
…new tools
…new roles
…new discourse
Post-Normal Science - when:
• facts are uncertain,
• values are in dispute,
• stakes are high, and
• decisions are urgent
Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991, 1999

13. Providing arguments
View of role of expert
pure issue
scientist advocate
View of role of science
Linear
Stakeholder
science
arbiter honest
broker
Providing alternatives

14. Sustainability requires
…new tools
“Development that meets the needs
of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs".

15. Sustainability requires
ciria
…new tools
“Development that meets
the needs of the present
without compromising the
ability of future generations
to meet their own needs".
copeland district
council u mass

16. Socio-ecological
system or
socio-environmental
system
Image © Gordon Charlton 2004
Image © Shawn Miller 2004
…complex adaptive systems where social
and biophysical agents are interacting at
multiple temporal and spatial scales!
(Janssen and Ostrom, 2004)

17. How can we explore
Society
Nature
the interconnections
of nature and society?
{
Environmental impact assessment -
Unidirectional
frameworks,
Fixed scale
people cause damage to environment
Hazard/risk assessment -
Environmental processes cause damage
to individuals/communities

18. ?
Three Pillars

19. What’s missing?
Participation (legitimacy)
Precaution
Equity (not just efficiency & effectiveness)

20. Securing our Future - UK SD Strategy 2005

22. PSR (or DSR or DPSIR)
Framework -
Many configurations - OECD, EEA, Defra, academic
• Allows for conceptual links in both directions
• Can be applied to multiple scales
• Can deal with processes - not just snapshot
But it doesn’t point society along the
right or ‘good’ direction -
It is a framework for tackling problems

23. Pressure-State-Response Framework
D
P
S
I
Driving Forces State Change in Impacts on
Pressures
in Society
Environment
Society
Agriculture
Land and Environmental
Industry
Physical,
Resource Use
goods &
Energy
chemical and services
Emissions
ecological
Transport
state
Human
Technological
Services
risks
Society
Households
Sector Policy
Environmental Statement of Social
Policy
Objectives
Prioritisation
Response

24. Pressure-State-Response Framework
D
P
S
I
Human
Environment
Society
Human
Society
Environment
Response

25. Impacts
are often:
Displaced
Aggregated
Uncertain
Inequitable - somebody benefits, and
somebody loses out, but there is often no
link between these groups

26. The projects
browse
read web
present
it! discuss

27. Embedded themes
• Using science
• Communicating science
• Risks and hazards
• Decision-making processes
• Measures and indicators

28. some
definitions…

29. Adaptation -
Adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to or expected climatic stimuli… which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities
Anticipatory
Autonomous/spontaneous
Planned
Private
Public
Reactive
adaptive capacity, adaptability, coping…

30. Vulnerability -
The degree to which a system is susceptible to - or
unable to cope with - adverse effects of climate
change, including variability and extremes
Function of
magnitude of exposure,
sensitivity and
adaptability
risk, threat, danger…
risk = hazard x outrage

31. Resilience -
The amount of change a system can undergo
without changing state
robustness, transformability, stability…

32. e.g.: The price of fertilizer does
not include the cost of water
Externalities -
remediation
Costs (or benefits) that are external to the market
A consequence of the fact that nobody
owns the natural environment can be that it
is valued at zero…
… but environmental costs can
(Pearce, Markandya and Barbier)
be very significant
What might shape the value of
environmental ‘resources’?
Scarcity, Substitutability
…and Society itself

33. Indicators that may be useful -
Palmer Drought Severity Index
Crop Moisture Index
Climate Vulnerability Index
Quality of Life indicators