More Related Content Similar to Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs (20) Commodities - Futures Curves and Implied Volatility Surfaces - Futures and ETFs1. 24.09.2012
Option Implied Volatility Skew Parameters by Terms:
At The Money Implied Volatilities by Terms
IVt = atx + btx2 + ct
Convenienc Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew
ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol -
Ticker Name ATM Ref e Yield (% (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) -
30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M
p.a.) 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M
RSA Comdty CANOLA FUTR (WCE) Nov12 608.90 16.05 16.13 15.71 16.24 16.93 0.116 -0.041 0.157 0.076 0.021 -0.004 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000
CCA Comdty COCOA FUTURE Dec12 2469.00 29.34 30.19 30.01 28.93 28.91 0.086 0.035 0.037 0.036 0.072 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
KCA Comdty COFFEE 'C' FUTURE Dec12 169.30 31.67 31.18 30.11 29.38 28.91 28.42 0.046 0.093 0.096 0.064 0.010 -0.028 -0.003 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
C A Comdty CORN FUTURE Dec12 744.50 26.02 26.02 26.06 26.06 24.67 22.75 22.24 0.160 0.160 0.162 0.136 0.035 0.011 0.021 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
CTA Comdty COTTON NO.2 FUTR Dec12 72.92 28.21 27.92 27.57 26.09 23.27 21.86 20.34 -0.045 -0.033 -0.025 -0.009 -0.026 -0.048 -0.050 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Agriculture
JOA Comdty FCOJ-A FUTURE Nov12 120.55 48.07 39.70 42.17 40.27 36.54 32.19 29.14 0.090 0.034 -0.068 -0.011 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
LBA Comdty LUMBER FUTURE Nov12 278.00 27.97 23.87 19.89 16.08 -0.047 -0.047 -0.011 -0.005 -0.005 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002
O A Comdty OAT FUTURE Dec12 370.25 26.44 26.44 25.54 23.40 23.40 0.159 0.159 0.165 0.180 0.180 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
RRA Comdty ROUGH RICE (CBOT) Nov12 15.24 17.55 16.89 16.11 17.69 0.209 0.183 0.150 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 0.000
S A Comdty SOYBEAN FUTURE Nov12 1604.00 24.38 23.96 23.45 23.26 22.63 0.125 0.153 0.188 0.176 0.078 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.000
SMA Comdty SOYBEAN MEAL FUTR Dec12 483.20 26.02 26.03 24.29 23.91 22.88 0.188 0.187 0.150 0.133 0.073 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
BOA Comdty SOYBEAN OIL FUTR Dec12 53.75 20.36 19.96 19.48 20.34 19.02 0.194 0.171 0.144 0.135 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000
SBA Comdty SUGAR #11 (WORLD) Mar13 20.28 25.21 25.52 25.37 24.95 22.11 21.28 20.74 0.071 0.051 0.045 0.007 0.006 0.000 -0.013 -0.003 -0.003 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
W A Comdty WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) Dec12 891.00 30.63 29.57 29.25 28.32 26.77 0.188 0.194 0.184 0.135 0.042 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
KWA Comdty WHEAT FUTURE(KCB) Dec12 918.00 23.89 29.22 29.50 28.00 -0.931 0.032 0.115 0.012 -0.007 -0.001 0.000 0.000
FCA Comdty CATTLE FEEDER FUT Nov12 148.70 8.68 10.32 10.70 -0.158 -0.180 -0.173 -0.007 -0.005 -0.003
stock
Live
LHA Comdty LEAN HOGS FUTURE Dec12 74.98 18.41 19.15 19.85 19.11 16.38 0.010 -0.032 -0.070 -0.076 -0.107 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000
LCA Comdty LIVE CATTLE FUTR Dec12 128.48 11.14 11.58 11.55 11.13 11.04 -0.152 -0.215 -0.214 -0.178 -0.122 -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
CLA Comdty WTI CRUDE FUTURE Nov12 91.83 29.71 31.59 32.07 32.00 29.47 27.01 24.99 -0.183 -0.150 -0.148 -0.134 -0.003 -0.081 -0.074 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
COA Comdty BRENT CRUDE FUTR Nov12 109.93 28.88 29.92 30.75 30.99 29.40 27.28 25.33 -0.130 -0.129 -0.171 -0.149 -0.184 -0.099 -0.078 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000 0.000
Energy
XBA Comdty G A S O L I N E R B O B F U T O c t 1 2 292.66 29.90 31.73 30.87 28.29 28.02 28.02 28.02 -0.028 -0.015 -0.003 -0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
HOA Comdty HEATING OIL FUTR Oct12 310.01 24.91 26.03 26.40 26.28 26.39 26.39 26.39 -0.027 -0.022 -0.026 -0.010 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
QSA Comdty GAS OIL FUT (ICE) Nov12 964.50 24.63 24.54 25.71 26.43 25.35 22.89 21.14 -0.247 -0.189 -0.141 -0.072 -0.023 -0.050 -0.028 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
NGA Comdty NATURAL GAS FUTR Oct12 2.83 43.99 39.63 36.70 33.75 32.59 26.68 25.24 -0.178 -0.063 -0.025 -0.029 -0.028 0.000 0.001 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Precious
GCA Comdty GOLD 100 OZ FUTR Dec12 1764.20 15.76 16.48 17.15 18.86 21.31 22.31 22.82 0.034 0.033 0.013 0.005 0.003 0.006 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Metals
SIA Comdty SILVER FUTURE Dec12 34.02 28.56 29.39 30.00 30.98 32.69 33.16 33.51 -0.113 -0.027 -0.010 -0.054 -0.023 -0.004 -0.003 -0.004 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
PLA Comdty PLATINUM FUTURE Oct12 1615.10 23.67 23.57 23.76 24.07 0.020 0.006 0.039 0.024 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000
PAA Comdty PALLADIUM FUTURE Dec12 639.50 23.03 23.65 24.06 24.91 0.102 0.010 0.005 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000
LAA Comdty LME PRI ALUM FUTR Oct12 2099.50 19.35 19.35 19.35 19.35 19.35 19.35 19.35 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Industrial
Metals
LPA Comdty LME COPPER FUTURE Oct12 8282.00 23.19 24.25 24.94 24.94 24.94 24.94 24.94 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
LLA Comdty LME LEAD FUTURE Oct12 2285.75 27.40 27.40 27.40 27.40 27.40 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 -0.011 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
LNA Comdty LME NICKEL FUTURE Oct12 18149.00 26.19 27.58 28.16 29.91 31.40 31.40 31.40 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
LXA Comdty LME ZINC FUTURE Oct12 2096.75 27.33 27.33 27.33 27.09 28.01 28.01 28.01 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
2. 24.09.2012
Option Implied Volatility Skew Parameters by Terms:
At The Money Implied Volatilities by Terms 2
IVt = atx + btx + ct
Convenienc Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew Skew
ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol - ATM Vol -
Ticker Name ATM Ref e Yield (% (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (a) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) - (b) -
30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M
p.a.) 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M 30D 60D 90D 6M 12M 18M 24M
UNG US Equity US NATURAL GAS FUND LP 19.48 42.32 41.79 41.70 42.00 40.91 40.90 41.85 -0.043 -0.045 -0.043 -0.034 0.017 0.019 -0.026 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
HNU CN Equity HORIZONS BETA NYMEX NAT BULL 13.24 97.88 92.26 100.43 -1.216 -0.472 -1.015 0.013 0.004 0.010
SLV US Equity ISHARES SILVER TRUST 32.80 29.82 30.45 30.78 31.74 33.77 34.69 35.31 -0.109 -0.056 -0.040 -0.066 -0.062 -0.068 -0.072 -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
HND CN Equity HORIZONS BETA NYMEX NAT BEAR 4.53 106.74 96.10 105.18 0.733 0.087 0.383 0.000 -0.001 0.001
GLD US Equity SPDR GOLD TRUST 170.66 15.93 17.14 17.62 19.08 21.48 -0.013 0.046 0.048 0.025 0.022 -0.006 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
USO US Equity UNITED STATES OIL FUND LP 33.98 29.83 31.75 32.14 32.78 33.00 32.72 32.43 -0.180 -0.153 -0.144 -0.135 -0.121 -0.108 -0.099 -0.005 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
HOU CN Equity HORIZONS BETA NYMEX CRUDE BU 4.80 60.60 65.53 66.71 0.299 -0.305 -0.226 -0.010 -0.002 -0.001
IAU US Equity ISHARES GOLD TRUST 17.13 15.51 16.72 17.45 19.10 21.70 22.93 23.50 0.091 0.079 0.064 0.024 0.031 0.019 -0.010 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000
HOD CN Equity HORIZONS BETA NYMEX CRUDE BE 5.66 62.40 60.75 64.85 -0.241 -0.017 0.010 -0.003 -0.002 0.000
ZSL US Equity PROSHARES ULTRASHORT SILVER 41.85 36.36 88.83 238.38 64.08 63.38 0.549 -0.585 -2.440 -0.130 -0.432 -0.004 0.000 0.002 0.000 -0.001
UCO US Equity PROSHRE ULT DJ-UBS CRUDE OIL 30.99 55.03 49.16 50.16 60.00 59.36 58.16 59.25 -0.237 -0.001 0.028 -0.103 -0.116 -0.098 -0.103 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.001 0.000
DBA US Equity POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE F 29.46 14.02 14.68 15.26 16.85 18.52 19.57 20.55 -0.260 -0.132 -0.085 -0.026 -0.008 -0.013 -0.018 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.001
DBC US Equity POWERSHARES DB COMMODITY IND 28.29 15.20 16.86 17.55 18.68 19.73 19.98 19.92 -0.282 -0.278 -0.273 -0.252 -0.139 -0.144 -0.217 -0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
SCO US Equity PROSHRE U/S DJ-UBS CRUDE OIL 41.18 57.41 61.70 62.75 62.71 63.34 64.82 66.62 0.094 0.097 0.096 0.088 0.080 0.054 0.009 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
AGQ US Equity PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER 56.21 58.87 60.04 60.74 63.30 66.28 -0.061 -0.009 -0.005 -0.058 -0.044 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000
GSG US Equity ISHARES S&P GSCI COMMODITY I 33.43 18.01 19.79 20.35 20.96 -0.380 -0.299 -0.260 -0.186 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
Main Commodity ETFs
GAS CN Equity ISHARES NATURAL GAS COMMODIT 10.97 54.23 50.11 50.57 49.42 49.26 49.10 -0.232 -0.066 -0.115 -0.092 -0.016 0.060 -0.006 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002
OIL US Equity IPATH GOLDMAN SACHS CRUDE 22.21 30.14 32.44 33.06 -0.176 -0.123 -0.106 -0.005 -0.003 -0.002
RJA US Equity ELEMENTS ROGERS AGRI TOT RET 9.63 20.47 20.48 20.49 -0.169 -0.170 -0.170 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
DJP US Equity IPATH DOW JONES-UBS COMMDTY 43.50 17.17 17.37 17.58 18.44 -0.251 -0.265 -0.277 -0.273 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001
DBB US Equity POWERSHARES DB BASE METALS F 19.64 21.19 21.81 22.33 23.79 0.130 -0.031 -0.073 -0.084 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.001
SIVR US Equity ETFS PHYSICAL SILVER SHARES 33.51 29.58 30.27 30.64 -0.049 -0.037 -0.038 -0.005 -0.002 -0.002
RJI US Equity ELEMENTS ROGERS TOTAL RETURN 8.83 16.75 16.75 16.75 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
GAZ US Equity IPATH DJ-UBS NAT GAS SUBINDX 3.04 38.20 41.78 44.10 -0.004 -0.024 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
JJC US Equity IPATH DJ-UBS COPPER SUBINDX 47.33 23.09 23.47 24.18 -0.207 -0.162 -0.184 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002
GLL US Equity PROSHARES ULTRASHORT GOLD 14.35 32.85 33.36 34.38 37.57 0.122 0.002 -0.032 -0.043 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
DBO US Equity POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND 25.90 26.10 27.13 27.54 28.16 -0.033 -0.143 -0.166 -0.127 -0.008 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001
UGL US Equity PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD 95.51 32.32 33.61 34.69 37.47 0.039 0.023 0.019 0.017 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0.000
USL US Equity UNITED STATES 12 MONTH OIL 40.04 27.30 28.00 28.42 29.60 29.22 0.078 -0.074 -0.117 -0.142 -0.113 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 0.000
CGL CN Equity ISHARES GOLD BULLION FUND 15.88 19.96 18.21 20.17 -0.252 -0.183 -0.200 -0.038 -0.021 -0.009
SGOL US Equity ETFS GOLD TRUST 173.90 15.94 16.84 17.43 0.070 0.058 0.044 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002
DBE US Equity POWERSHARES DB ENERGY FUND 27.85 24.67 24.78 24.87 25.57 -0.363 -0.230 -0.190 -0.148 0.001 0.000 -0.001 -0.001
BAL US Equity IPATH DJ-UBS COTTON SUBINDX 47.93 25.17 25.18 25.66 -0.072 -0.001 0.014 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001
DBP US Equity POWERSHARES DB PREC METALS F 61.06 16.37 16.25 16.84 19.00 -0.042 -0.071 -0.049 0.039 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001
RJN US Equity ELEMENTS ROGERS ENERGY TR 6.52 29.27 29.22 29.18 -0.063 -0.062 -0.061 0.000 0.000 0.000
DBS US Equity POWERSHARES DB SILVER FUND 59.76 30.03 30.27 30.76 32.37 -0.101 -0.062 -0.050 -0.039 -0.006 -0.003 -0.002 -0.001
CORN US Equity TEUCRIUM CORN FUND 48.09 24.18 25.44 25.77 0.186 0.110 0.072 -0.004 -0.001 0.000
UGA US Equity UNITED STATES GAS FUND LP 58.14 26.72 26.85 27.07 27.75 -0.213 -0.208 -0.194 -0.140 -0.004 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
DGL US Equity POWERSHARES DB GOLD FUND 60.60 16.21 17.07 17.62 19.03 0.163 0.076 0.050 0.029 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000
COW US Equity IPATH DJ-UBS LIVESTOCK SUB 28.02 17.09 17.11 17.13 18.21 0.038 0.045 0.053 0.014 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.000
UNL US Equity UNITED STATES 12 MONTH NATUR 17.38 24.87 24.65 24.65 -0.098 -0.035 -0.025 0.000 -0.001 0.000
DNO US Equity UNITED STATES SHORT OIL FUND 38.05 29.73 31.31 31.96 0.248 0.150 0.139 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
3. 24.09.2012
WTI Crude Futures Term Structures & Implied Volatilities
WTI Crude Oil - Forward Curve (Fair Value) WTI Crude Oil - Historical 12-Months Implied Volatilities
96 3.0% 60% 115
2.0% 110
94 50%
105
1.0%
92
40% 100
0.0%
90 95
-1.0% 30%
88 90
-2.0% 20% 85
86
-3.0% 80
84 10%
-4.0% 75
82 -5.0% 0% 70
May-12
May-12
May-12
Mar-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Dec-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
Feb-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Apr-12
Nov-11
Nov-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Oct-11
80 -6.0%
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
Aug-13
Aug-14
Aug-15
Aug-16
Aug-17
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
6MTH_IMPVOL_90.0%MNY_DF 6MTH_IMPVOL_100.0%MNY_DF
Term Structure - Slope (% p.a.) GOLD 100 OZ FUTR Dec12 6MTH_IMPVOL_110.0%MNY_DF PX_LAST
WTI Crude Oil - 30 Days Implied VS Historical Volatility WTI Crude Oil - Implied Volatility Surface
60%
34%
50%
32%
40% 30%
28%
30% 26%
24%
20%
22%
10% 20%
0.320-0.340
24MTH
IV 110%
0.300-0.320
IV 102.5%
12MTH
0%
IV 97.5%
0.280-0.300
3MTH
May-12
May-12
May-12
Mar-12
Mar-12
IV 90%
Sep-11
Dec-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Sep-12
Feb-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Apr-12
Nov-11
Nov-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Oct-11
0.260-0.280
30DAY
0.240-0.260
0.220-0.240
Historical Volatility (30 Days) 30DAY_IMPVOL_100.0%MNY_DF 0.200-0.220
Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |