Climate change--choose your future wisely.

futureproofed.com
CLIMATE CHANGE:
CHOOSE YOUR FUTURE
Serge de Gheldere

THE CLIMATE PROJECT
“Climate ambassador” for Al Gore

GROEPT Engineering College
Director

We deliver bold,
sustainable business solutions,
creating value today
and tomorrow.

Resolving
(Design)
Mapping
(Measure)
Launching
(Build)

Everything is oil
Production
Raw materials
Food
Logistics

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012
© BP 2012

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012
© BP 2012
Oil production/consumption by region

Market shortfall
consumption -
production
7 M
barrels/day

This increase would be mostly driven by higher demand
from non-OECD economies – in particular China and India.
The expected rise in the oil price is unlikely to be smooth.

Oil price
Oil import
Trade balanceItaly’s trade balance

1999 2011
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
0
25
50
75
100
Tradebalancebn$
Oilprice$/barrel
Oil price
Oil import

1999 2011
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
0
25
50
75
100
20 $/barrel
100 $/barrel
Tradebalancebn$
Oilprice$/barrel
Oil price
Oil import

1999 2011
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
0
25
50
75
100
20 $/barrel
100 $/barrel
-12 bn $ -55 bn $
Tradebalancebn$
Oilprice$/barrel
Oil price
Oil import

1999 2011
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
0
25
50
75
100
20 $/barrel
100 $/barrel
-12 bn $ -55 bn $
22 bn $
-36 bn $
Tradebalancebn$
Oilprice$/barrel
Oil price
Oil import

International Energy Agency
(feb 2013)
Southern Europe
=
same position as Italy
Oil import bill EU: $ 668 bln 2013

International Energy Agency:
“The existing ﬁelds are declining so sharply
that in order to stay where we are in terms
of production levels in the next 25 years,
we have to ﬁnd and develop
four new Saudi Arabias.”
(40 M barrels/day)
No cheap oil left

German army
“Sicherheitspolitische Implikationen knapper Ressourcen”
Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert
- Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit -
• Oil decline results in shrinking logistics
• Governments are not prepared to deal
with shortage of vital goods
• Impoverishment will lead to
extremism and domestic conﬂicts

German army
“Sicherheitspolitische Implikationen knapper Ressourcen”
Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21. Jahrhundert
- Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit -
Proposed solutions—focus on principles of:
• Resilience,
• Flexibility,
• Self-suﬃciency

If you’re 28 or younger,
you have never experienced
a colder than average month
in your life.

The next 10 years may be the
most important ones since the
beginning of mankind.

World Economic Forum
in collaboration with :
Marsh & McLennan Companies
Swiss Reinsurance Company
Wharton Center for Risk Management,
University of Pennsylvania
Zurich Financial Services
GlobalRisks
2011
SixthEdition
An initiative of the Risk Response Network
World Economic Forum
January 2011
Climate change
most important risk
of next 10 years
(January 2011)
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

Economicimpact(billion$)
Likelihood of occurring in the next 10 years

“World is more at
risk as persistent
economic weakness
saps our ability to
tackle environmental
challenges.”
World economic forum
2013
Global Risks 2013
Eighth Edition
An Initiative of the Risk Response Network
Insight Report

iftheriskweretooccur
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
5
4
3
2
4.1
4
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
Critical fragile states
Major systemic financial failure
Water supply crises
Chronic fiscal imbalances
Severe income disparity
Chronic labour market imbalances
Rising
religious
fanaticism
Mismanagement of population ageing
Terrorism
Persistent extreme weather
Cyber attacks
Mismanaged urbanization
Species overexploitation
Massive incident of data fraud/theft
Rising rates of
chronic disease
Entrenched organized crime
Massive digital misinformation
Unforeseen negative
consequences
of regulation
Militarization of space
Land and waterway
use mismanagement
Unmanageable inflation or deflation
Critical systems failure
Vulnerability
to pandemics
Unmanaged migration
Recurring
liquidity
crises
Irremediable pollution
Unsustainable population growth
Food shortage crises
Global governance failure
Rising greenhouse gas emission
Failure of climate change adaptation
Failure of diplomatic
conflict resolution
Extreme volatility in energy and agriculture prices
Diffusion of weapons of mass destruction
Unforeseen consequences of new life science technologies
Backlash against globalizationBacklash against globalization
Unprecedented geophysical destruction
Ineffective illicit drug policies
Unforeseen consequences
of nanotechnology
Widespread illicit trade
Proliferation of orbital debris
Failure of intellectual property regime
Antibiotic-
resistant
bacteria
Pervasive entrenched corruption
Hard landing of an emerging economy
Unilateral resource nationalization
Unforeseen
consequences
of climate
change mitigation
Prolonged
infrastructure
neglect
Vulnerability to
geomagnetic
storms
Mineral resource supply
vulnerability
Impactiftheriskweretooccur
Likelihood to occur in the next ten years
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Technological1 2 3 4 5
5
4
3
2
1
2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
Critical fragile states
Chronic labour market imbalances
Rising
religious
fanaticism
Mismanagement of population ageing
Terrorism
Persistent extreme weather
Cyber attacks
Mismanaged urbanization
Species overexploitation
Massive incident of data fraud/theft
Rising rates of
chronic disease
Entrenched organized crime
Massive digital misinformation
Unforeseen negative
consequences
of regulation
Militarization of space
Land and waterway
use mismanagement
Unmanageable inflation or deflation
Critical systems failure
Vulnerability
to pandemics
Unmanaged migration
Recurring
liquidity
crises
Irremediable pollution
Unsustainable population growth Failure of diplomatic
conflict resolution
Unforeseen consequences of new life science technologies
Backlash against globalizationBacklash against globalization
Unprecedented geophysical destruction
Ineffective illicit drug policies
Unforeseen consequences
of nanotechnology
Widespread illicit trade
Proliferation of orbital debris
Failure of intellectual property regime
Antibiotic-
resistant
bacteria
Pervasive entrenched corruption
Hard landing of an emerging economy
Unilateral resource nationalization
Unforeseen
consequences
of climate
change mitigation
Prolonged
infrastructure
neglect
Vulnerability to
geomagnetic
storms
Mineral resource supply
vulnerability
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Technological1 2 3 4 5
5
4
3
2
1

Haïti Dominican Republic
The climate project
Ecosystem services:
“interest” on
natural capital
Living systems (capital)
Ecosystem services (interest)
Ecosystem services
• Water puriﬁcation
• Flood management
• Pollination
• Buffering extreme weather
• Soil formation
• Photosynthesis:
CO2 to O2
Ecosystem services

Creative commons: Nicolas Guerin
• Pollination
• Soil formation
• Photosynthesis:
CO2 to O2
Ecosystem services

Hyland seeds
• Pollination
• Soil formation
• Photosynthesis:
CO2 to O2
Ecosystem services

TEEB - The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity
teebweb.org
T
h
e
E
c
o
n
o
m
ic
s
o
f
E
c
o
s
ys
te
m
s
&
B
io
d
iv
e
rs
ity
TEEB FOR POLICY MAKERS
SUMMARY: RESPONDING TO THE VALUE OF NATURE

MELTING PERMAFROST
COAL MINING
COAL PLANTS
CROP BURNING
OIL PRODUCTION
FOREST BURNING
LAND TRANSPORTATION
LANDFILLS
FERTILIZATION
INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
Where Do Greenhouse Gases Come From?

Tropospheric CO2
July 2003
363
CO2 Concentration PPMV
386
Source: NASA/JPL

Tropospheric CO2
July 2008
363
CO2 Concentration PPMV
386
Source: NASA/JPL

CO2Concentration
CO2(ppmv)
400
Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA
320
340
360
380
300
180
200
220
240
260
280
2012 CO2 Concentration: 400 ppm
Temp.inF°
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Age (years BP)

Jim Hansen
Director of NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
“The last time CO2 was
as high as today,
sea level was higher by
at least 15 meters”

2012 CO2 Concentration: 400 ppm
CO2Concentration
CO2(ppmv)
400
320
340
360
380
300
180
200
220
240
260
280
Temp.inF°
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Age (years BP)

After 35 more years at the current rate of increase
CO2Concentration
CO2(ppmv)
400
320
340
360
380
300
180
200
220
240
260
280
Temp.inF°
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Age (years BP)
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600

Photo courtesy of Paul Grabhorn/ACIA

Photo credit: Vladimir Lightovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Source: University of Alaska - Fairbanks/INE, 2007

1880 – 2010
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
AnomalyRelativeto1901–2000Mean(°C)
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010
Source: National Climatic Data Center; NOAA

Change in Annual Global Temperature
1880 – 2010
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
AnomalyRelativeto1901–2000Mean(°C)
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010
Source: National Climatic Data Center; NOAA

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: Alexander, L. V., et al., Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111,
D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006 © 2006 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced by permission of American Geophysical Union.
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Worldwide

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Increase in Heavy Precipitation Days
Source: Alexander, L. V., et al., Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 111,
D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006 © 2006 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced by permission of American Geophysical Union.
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Worldwide

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, National Center for Computational Sciences
As temperatures increase, the oceans
evaporate more moisture into the sky

Photo: AP Photo/Lori Mehmen
Orchard, Iowa
June 10, 2008

“The only plausible explanation for the
rise in weather-related catastrophes is
climate change.”
Munich Re
One of the two largest reinsurance companies in the world
September 27, 2010

Source: Darren Seiler
Australia Drought

Upsala Gletsjer
1928
2004
Argentina
Photo: © Greenpeace/De Agostini/Beltra

Portage Gletsjer
1914 2004
Alaska
Photos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org

Rhone
Glacier
© Gesellschaft fuer oekologische Forschung

All of this is now,
and with ‘only’
0.8 °C

“Climate change has already
held back global development.
It is already a signiﬁcant cost to the
world economy, while inaction on climate
change can be considered one of the
leading global causes of death.”
ClimateVulnerableForum
CLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLANET2ND
EDITION
CLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORAGUIDETOTHECOLDCALCULUSOFAHOTPLANET

400.000
climate change
related deaths/year
ClimateVulnerableForum
CLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORA GUIDE TO THE COLD CALCULUS OF A HOT PLANET2ND
EDITION
CLIMATEVULNERABILITYMONITORAGUIDETOTHECOLDCALCULUSOFAHOTPLANET
1.200 bn $
climate and carbon
related losses/year
(2011)

Jim Hansen
Director of NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
“We are just now
experiencing
the full eﬀect of
CO2 emitted until 1980s”

Risk of coastal ﬂooding
Millions at risk in 2080s
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1,0°C 1,5°C 2,0°C 2,5°C 3,0°C
Hunger,malaria,ﬂooding(millionpeopleatrisk)
Risk of hunger
watershortage(millionpeopleatrisk)
Global temperature increase above pre-industrial (°C)
Risk of malaria

Risk of water shortage
Risk of coastal ﬂooding
Millions at risk in 2080s
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1,0°C 1,5°C 2,0°C 2,5°C 3,0°C
Hunger,malaria,ﬂooding(millionpeopleatrisk)
Risk of hunger
watershortage(millionpeopleatrisk)
Global temperature increase above pre-industrial (°C)
Risk of malaria

All water
on earth
All atmosphere
on earth

Unburnable Carbon –
Are the world’s ﬁnancial markets
carrying a carbon bubble?

You want me to leave it down here?
May 4th 2013 | From the print edition
Energy firms and climate change
Unburnable fuel
Either governments are not serious about climate change or fossil-fuel firms are
overvalued
MARKETS can misprice risk, as investors
in subprime mortgages discovered in 2008.
Several recent reports suggest that
markets are now overlooking the risk of
“unburnable carbon”. The share prices of
oil, gas and coal companies depend in part
on their reserves. The more fossil fuels a
firm has underground, the more valuable its
shares. But what if some of those reserves
can never be dug up and burned?
If governments were determined to
implement their climate policies, a lot of
that carbon would have to be left in the
ground, says Carbon Tracker, a non-profit
organisation, and the Grantham Research
Institute on Climate Change, part of the
London School of Economics. Their
analysis starts by estimating the amount of
carbon dioxide that could be put into the
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You want me to leave it down here?
May 4th 2013 | From the print edition
Energy firms and climate change
Unburnable fuel
Either governments are not serious about climate change or fossil-fuel firms are
overvalued
MARKETS can misprice risk, as investors
in subprime mortgages discovered in 2008.
Several recent reports suggest that
markets are now overlooking the risk of
“unburnable carbon”. The share prices of
oil, gas and coal companies depend in part
on their reserves. The more fossil fuels a
firm has underground, the more valuable its
shares. But what if some of those reserves
can never be dug up and burned?
If governments were determined to
implement their climate policies, a lot of
that carbon would have to be left in the
ground, says Carbon Tracker, a non-profit
organisation, and the Grantham Research
Institute on Climate Change, part of the
London School of Economics. Their
analysis starts by estimating the amount of
carbon dioxide that could be put into the
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Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s ﬁnancial markets carrying a carbon bubble?
CHINA
Total GtCO2
67.46
Coal
58.69
Oil
8.46
Gas
0.31
RUSSIA
Total GtCO2
252.98
Coal
160.84
Oil
75.39
Gas
16.75
USA
Total GtCO2
156.49
Oil
111.68
Coal
33.83
Gas
10.98
UK
Total GtCO2
105.5
Oil
51.52
Coal
49.35
Gas
4.63
CANADA
Total GtCO2
27.88
Oil
19.95
Coal
6.74
Gas
1.19
AUSTRALIA
Total GtCO2
21.97
Coal
18.72
Oil
2.70
Gas
0.55
INDIA
Total GtCO2
12.63
Coal
12.28
Gas
0.19
Gas
0.53
ITALY
Total GtCO2
8.04
Oil
7.51
BRAZIL
Total GtCO2
14.63
Oil
11.45
Coal
3.01
Gas
0.17
FRANCE
Total GtCO2
18.24
Oil
17.07
Gas
1.17
JAPAN
Total GtCO2
11.03
Coal
8.42
Oil
2.44
Oil
0.16
Gas
0.17
SOUTH
AFRICA
Total GtCO2
17.96
Coal
17.96
10 |
Country Coal Oil Gas Total
INDONESIA 5.15 - - 5.15
GREECE 4.56 - - 4.56
SPAIN - 2.96 0.29 3.25
SINGAPORE 3.21 - - 3.21
THAILAND 2.55 0.33 0.12 3.0
NORWAY - 2.23 0.25 2.48
GERMANY 1.94 - 0.05 1.99
ARGENTINA - 1.68 0.12 1.8
KOREA - 1.56 - 1.56
AUSTRIA - 1.02 0.06 1.08
CZECH REPUBLIC 1.07 - - 1.07
NETHERLANDS 0.62 - - 0.62
SWEDEN - 0.47 0.00 0.47
COLOMBIA - 0.35 0.01 0.36
MEXICO 0.26 - - 0.26
HUNGARY - 0.19 0.01 0.2
CROATIA - 0.17 - 0.17
Distribution of fossil fuel reserves
between stock exchanges
Fig.4
CHINA
Total GtCO2
67.46
Coal
58.69
Oil
8.46
Gas
0.31
RUSSIA
Total GtCO2
252.98
Coal
160.84
Oil
75.39
Gas
16.75
USA
Total GtCO2
156.49
Oil
111.68
Coal
33.83
Gas
10.98
UK
Total GtCO2
105.5
Oil
51.52
Coal
49.35
Gas
4.63
CANADA
Total GtCO2
27.88
Oil
19.95
Coal
6.74
Gas
1.19
AUSTRALIA
Total GtCO2
21.97
Coal
18.72
Oil
2.70
Gas
0.55
INDIA
Total GtCO2
12.63
Coal
12.28
Gas
0.19
Gas
0.53
ITALY
Total GtCO2
8.04
Oil
7.51
BRAZIL
Total GtCO2
14.63
Oil
11.45
Coal
3.01
Gas
0.17
FRANCE
Total GtCO2
18.24
Oil
17.07
Gas
1.17
JAPAN
Total GtCO2
11.03
Coal
8.42
Oil
2.44
Oil
0.16
Gas
0.17
SOUTH
AFRICA
Total GtCO2
17.96
Coal
17.96
| 11

... there is an alternative: invest in our
future, in ways that help us to
address simultaneously the problems
of global warming, global inequality
and poverty, and the necessity of
structural change.
—Joseph Stiglitz

USA Russia Belgium E.U. China India Target
0
4
8
12
16
20
17.3
12.8
10.0
7.5 7.2
1.6 1.2
The global challenge is immense
tonCO2e/person*year
-90 % by 2050

FACTOR 10
IS
NECESSARY
POSSIBLE
ATTRACTIVE
PROFITABLE

Multi-actor business models
Government Companies
Consumer
Citizens

From Dan Esty “Green to Gold”
short term
(more certain)
long term
(less certain)
Boost
upside
Reduce
downside
Revenues Intangibles
Costs Risks

“European Heads of State (...)
commit at least 20% of the entire
EU budget from 2014-2020 to
climate-related spending.”
8 feb 2013
Connie Hedegaard,
European Commissioner for Climate Action

80% DECARBONIZATION OVERALL MEANS NEARLY FULL
DECARBONIZATION IN POWER, ROAD TRANSPORT AND BUILDINGS
2

“The purpose of the
corporation needs
to be redeﬁned as
creating shared value.
Creating economic
value in way
that also creates
value for society.”
Michael Porter
Harvard Business School

“In business, we have
spent years manufacturing
demand,
while missing the
most important demand
of all.”
Michael Porter
Harvard Business School

VISION
WITHOUT
EXECUTION
IS
HALLUCINATION
THOMAS EDISON

4 STRATEGIES
1.Radical natural resource eﬃcacy
2.Biomimetic production
3.Solutions economy
4.Reinvest in natural capital
www.natcap.org
Natural Capitalism

From the Drivepower Technology Atlas.
Tunneling through the cost barrier
FACTOR 10 improvement at lower initial cost
Pipes Larger diameter; straight layoutLarger diameter; straight layoutLarger diameter; straight layout
Pump specs. Smaller pumps and motorsSmaller pumps and motorsSmaller pumps and motors
Capital investment Lower than original designLower than original designLower than original design
Pumping power (hp) before: 95 after: 7 saving: 93%
-90 %

Tunneling through the cost barrier
kWh/m2*jaarEnergieverbruik. kWh/m2*jaar
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Energieverbruik
Meerinvestering
Totale kost = energieverbruik + meerinvestering
Speciﬁc space heating demand [kWh/m2 * year]
Totalcost,amortizedover30year[€/m2*year]
Total cost = energy cost + construction cost
Peak heating load < 10 W/m2 --> ventilation system can be used for
space heating. Investing in a heating system is no longer required, and
construction cost goes down.
construction costs rise (better insulation,
windows, equipement, workmanship, etc.) in
order to reduce heating demand
energy costs rise with
heating demand

Parans lighting system
Optical ﬁbres transporting energy instead of data

Exterior insulation for existing buildings
UV / rain / graﬃti / impact resistant breathable building “skin”

ENERGY RETROFIT OF 144 HOUSES (KERKRADE, NL)
120 kWh/m2*j 25 kWh/m2*j• Modular prefab elements
• 8 days/house
• Inhabitants stay in house

Kingspan - integrated roof elements
Interior ﬁnish, insulation, airtightness, structure, weatherprooﬁng, PV

Tony Malkin, ceo Empire State Building

© Futureproofed factor 10 project • April 2011
30
ive'new'equipment'or'controls.
ology
s
source: Empire State Building esbsuistanability.org
30.000 ft

source: Empire State Building esbsuistanability.org
Project Incremental cost Annual energy savings
Daylighting, lighting, plugs
Radiative barrier
Windows
Chiller plant retroﬁt
Air handling units
Power generation
Demand control ventilation
Tenant energy management
Direct digital controls
8400 941
2700 190
4000 410
-17300 675
2400 702
7000 320
(included above) 117
365 396
5600 741
Totals 13165 4172

© Futureproofed factor 10 project • April 2011A landmark sustainability program for the Empire State Building 1
A landmark sustainability program
for the Empire State Building
A model for optimizing energy efficiency, sustainable practices,
operating expenses and long-term value in existing buildings
Efforts to make buildings more environmentally sustainable have
produced hundreds of millions of square feet of greener office
space. But tens of billions of square feet remain in office buildings
worldwide for which owners have made little or no progress in the
areas of energy efficiency and sustainability.
Owners of multi-tenant buildings, which comprise the bulk of
office space, are primarily motivated by return on investment. To
justify the costs associated with energy efficiency retrofits, owners
must be convinced that the investment will be repaid by some
combination of reduced operating expenses, higher rental rates
and greater occupancy levels. The percentage of tenants willing
to pay higher overall occupancy costs for green space is not large,
and tenants that greatly value sustainability gravitate towards
newer buildings that have been designed and built to higher
energy and environmental standards. In general, the incremental
cost of retrofitting older buildings to achieve improved energy
perfromance is more expensive than the incremental cost of
achieving the same performance in a new building.
This context underscores the extraordinary nature of the
commitment that Anthony E. Malkin of Empire State Building
Company has made to establish the Empire State Building as
one of the most energy efficient buildings in New York City,
and arguably the world’s most environmentally conscious
office tower built before World War II. Just as extraordinary as
Malkin’s commitment to retrofitting the Empire State Building
was his decision to make the process transparent so that other
building owners–particularly those with pre-WWII or landmark
properties–would have an example to follow in pursuing their own
green projects.
Partner
companies
5
Energy-
efficiency
ideas vetted
60+
Final projects
recommended
8
Iterative
design process
8mos.
Annual energy
savings
$4.4M
Energy
reduction
38%
A landmark sustainability program
for the Empire State Building
30.000 ft

0
25
50
75
100
Before Financing After
Energy performance contracting
Energy cost Retroﬁt cost
30.000 ft

© Futureproofed factor 10 project • April 2011source: Empire State Building esbsuistanability.org
30.000 ft

example- Storytelling Nuage Vert Helsinki
Continuous process of visualising, inspiring with
gamiﬁcation element. Allowing for broader media-support.

High-deﬁnition, low-latency telepresence

From globalized analog production to direct digital local production
Superior properties with dramatically reduced time, costs, carbon and resource use.
MELOTTE

Production process Melotte - green mix
129
0.051
0.127
0.178
0.02 0.016
0.037
0.005
Alloy Supplies Electricity
Fu
Classical production process (Pt)
Production process Melotte - gray electricity (Pt)
Production process Melotte - green mix (Pt)
factor
7

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
Curitiba, Brazil + 83 cities world wide
Metro-like eﬃciency. Bus-like investment.

Protected shelter, easy acces,
with sale and validation of tickets

Rapid, easy access to and from busses

Reserved bus-lanes.
High frequency in peak hours.

BRT Curitiba
• 2.2 m inhabitants
• 70% use BRT
• 28 % car drivers
• Fuel/person 30% lower

“Who killed the electric car”

Tesla Roadster
more than 20 million real world kms

45 g CO2/km, well to wheel, grey electricity
350 km radius
0 - 100 km/h: 3.7 s
0 g CO2/km, well to wheel, green electricity
Tesla Roadster
more than 20 million real world kms

515 km
radius
4.4 s
0-100 km/h
45 g
CO2/km
grey
5 + 2
adults kids
Pure electric vehicles with superior performance & increased convenience
Accelerating transition to increasingly affordable electric mobility.
TESLA
0 g
CO2/km
green
Model S

4 STRATEGIES
2.Biomimetic, closed loop
production
3.Solutions economy
www.natcap.org
Natural Capitalism

-
-
f"
-
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-
-
-
image&18& closing&the&circle

!"!!!!!!!!! #$%&'()*$+!$,!-!*./+'()$0*
+($%$)%++/$&.*&"2)%#)&-")3.*4-$)*50'"6)$-07$)&-*&)!"#$$%&'()#%*+,-$+.*+/%
):4/.;-*$")01)"+";&.%;%&()%#)20)#0&-%#3)$;"#*.%0<=
>
!"#$%&'(& !"#$%&'()*+,(!'$-)./#)+'&",#0
!"#$%&')& !"#$%&'()*1($)2(./'$-0
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!"#$%&'(& !"#$%&'()*+,(!'$-)./#)+'&",#0
!"#$%&')& !"#$%&'()*1($)2(./'$-0
!2! carbon!footprint
29
7,1!Mton
3,4!Mton Materials
CH4
3,2!Mton
12,9!Mton
16,1!Mton
CH4
3,2!Mton
7,1!Mton
3,4!Mton
2,4!Mton
16,1!Mton
WtE
Materials
3,2!Mton 16,1!Mton
scenario:!Do!Nothing
scenario:!Closing!the!Circle
=!
natural!!
resources
output!
scenario!CtC
output!
scenario!DN
+!!!input!
market
image&16& balance!between!scenarion!do&nothing!and!closing&the&circle!

P+CIRCULAIREECONOMIE
4
Zesgeda
1
Resten tapijt,van nylon.
2
Het vezel uit tapijt (fluff),losgemaakt van de
bitumen ondergrond.
3
Herwonnen nylon teruggebracht tot de
oervorm:caprolactam.
daanteve
4
Gerecycled nylon als nieuw garen Econyl
voor tapijtindustrie.

Zesgeda
3
Herwonnen nylon teruggebracht tot de
oervorm:caprolactam.
5
VAN GRONDSTOF TOT GRONDSTOF
daanteverwisselingen
4
Gerecycled nylon als nieuw garen Econyl
voor tapijtindustrie.
5
Garen tot een superdunne mat geweven,
met een minimum aan materiaal.
6
Nieuw product:Biosfera van InterfaceFLOR,
op dit moment de duurzaamste vloertegel.

CO2 as a Monomer for Polymer Synthesis
(http://bioplastique.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/bayer_logo.jpg)
(http://bioplastique.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/logo_main.jpg)
(http://bioplastique.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/banner-cworld-
logo.png)
The low cost and low toxicity of CO2 make it an attractive industrial chemical reagent, and the
utility of CO2 is dramatically illustrated by the fact that millions of tons of CO2 are consumed per
year in the industrial production of urea. Other methods for using CO2 as a practical carbon
feedstock are being aggressively investigated, and one of the most intensely studied processes
involves the use of CO2 in the synthesis of polymers, especially polycarbonates and
polyurethanes. The current industrial synthesis of those materials is primarily based on the
condensation of highly toxic phosgene and aromatic or aliphatic diols. Because CO2 would
provide a less expensive, less toxic alternative to phosgene, considerable effort has gone into
developing those CO2-based synthesis .

Surface Cleaning Solutions
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SAFE-TAINER™ System.
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4 STRATEGIES
2.Biomimetic, closed loop production
3.Solutions economy
www.natcap.org
Natural Capitalism

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Full Package

Intensief groen 17.000 helft van d
Extensief groen 45.500 21.000
7.467
17.000
bos
wadi en ta
helft ext. tu
13.033
17.500
45.500
17.000
7.000
Verharde rijweg
Intensief beheerd groen
Extensief beheerd groen
Bebouwde oppervlakte
Onverharde rijweg
Verharde rijweg
Onverharde rijweg
afbeelding 5
Verdeling van de oppervlaktes in een Ecovil-
lage, in m2
Verharde rijw
Intensief beh
Extensief be
Bebouwde o
Onverharde
Verharde rijw
Intensief beh
Extensief be
Bebouwde o
Onverharde
Ecovillages levenscyclus analyse:
Vergelijking landgebruik
Ecovillages12
17.500
69.950
22.050
Verharde rijweg
Onverharde rijweg
afbeelding 5
lage, in m2
afbeelding 6
Verdeling van de oppervlaktes in een traditio-
nele verkaveling, in m2
Verharde rijweg
Onverharde rijweg
Verharde rijweg
Onverharde rijweg
Traditionele wijk Ecovillage
Verdeling
oppervlaktes
(m2)
Ecovillage-Levenscyclusanalyse
woonwijk, inclusief con-
an de totale oppervlakte
de helft van de tuinen in
os): onder extensief be-
eld in bosreservaten) als
amenstelling en humus-
ordert de biodiversiteit
ieve invloed op ecosys-
van extensief beheer zijn
den van exoten. Maaien,
rmen van intensief be-
n houdt rekening met de
er natuur en aan het her-
gekozen voor planten die
ndigheden. De voorkeur
ast is er ook plaats voor
vestigen)
n ecologi-
smiddelen
minimum
.
afbeelding 3
Bovenaanzicht van een traditionele verkave-
ling
incidentele ingrepen die de vegetatiestructuur en -samenstelling en humus-
Extensief beheer bevordert de biodiversiteit
in een natuurlandschap en heeft zodoende een positieve invloed op ecosys-
temen en de diensten die zij leveren. Voorbeelden van extensief beheer zijn
het verwijderen van opslag uit een heide of het bestrijden van exoten. Maaien,
chopperen, plaggen, dunnen en groepenkap zijn vormen van intensief be-
heer.
» extensieve tuinen: een ecologische siertuin houdt rekening met de
menselijke wensen en behoeften; draagt bij aan meer natuur en aan het her-
stel van het landschap. In een ecologische tuin wordt gekozen voor planten die
zijn aangepast aan de grondsoort en aan de omstandigheden. De voorkeur
gaat uit naar streekeigen bomen en struiken. Daarnaast is er ook plaats voor
spontane natuur (plantensoorten die zich spontaan vestigen)
en voor insecten, vogels en kleine zoogdieren. In een ecologi-
sche tuin gebruikt men geen chemische bestrijdingsmiddelen
of kunstmest. Er wordt bovendien gestreefd naar een minimum
aan tuinafval en een zuinig energie- en waterverbruik.
afbeelding 4
Bovenaanzicht van de Ecovillage in Meche-
len
afbeelding 3
Bovenaanzicht van een traditionele verkave-
ling
Extensief groen 45.500 21.000
7.467
17.000
bos
wadi en talud
helft ext. tuinen
0 geen
Verharde rijweg
Onverharde rijweg
Verharde rijweg
Onverharde rijweg
afbeelding 5
lage, in m2
Verharde rijweg
Onverharde rijweg
Verharde rijweg

jks afgelegd in Ecovillage < 5 km 1.747.138
1.747.138 km
2.278.582 km
Geredenautokilometers/jaar
-23%
Vergelijking personenvervoer
• Autodelen: Cambio + Autopia
• Groene infrastructuur

Diensten transport: 62% minder km’s
n Ecovillage - km Traditionele wijk - km
chtwagen (vuilnis, 2 x 83 218
telwagen (post, 2 x 83 218
oter (post, 4 x week) 166 437
egd 332 873
afbeelding 9
In een traditionele wijk leggen de diensten
(post en vuilnis) per ophaling 2.100m af, in
een Ecovillage is dat 800m
332 km
873 km
geredendienstenkilometers/jaar
-62%
afbeelding 10
In een Ecovillage leggen de diensten 62%
minder kilometers af dan in een traditionele
wijk
12 Assumptie Futureproofed 2011, op basis van het grondplan van de Ecovillage
Traditionele afvalophaling & postbedeling
2111 m
Afvalophaling & postbedeling in Ecovillage
778 m
1/3e
a
I
(
e
geredendienstenkilom

Geen infrastructuur nodig om
regenwater op te vangen
afbeelding 13
In een Ecovillage verdwijnt de impact van kunstmatige regenwateropvang
volledig
36.429 m3
Regenwatermetinfrastructuur/jaar
0 m3
- 100%
Door dit natuurlijk opvangsysteem wordt de impact van infrastructuur om regenwater
te bufferen gereduceerd tot nul.
afbeelding 13
In een Ecovillage verdwijnt de impact van kunstmatige regenwateropvang
volledig
afbeelding 14
Regenwatermetinfrastructuur/jaar
0 m3
- 100%
• Vermindering hoeveelheid
• Hergebruik
• Buffering

- 60%
- 92%
Energieverbruik factor 10 beter

gebruik, materialen en bouw)
iet zichtbaar door cut-off):0,7%
chtbaar door cut-off): 0,02%
ditionele woonwijk bedraagt
unten over 35 jaar.
a
Analyse van een traditionele wijk (cut-of
Weging impacten
traditionele wijk

An
(cu
(extensief openbaar groen en tuinen).
Weging impacten
Ecovillage

Een LCA die de milieu-impact van een Ecovillage en een traditionele wijk meet, stelt ons
in staat om een vergelijking te maken tussen de twee types wijken. We stellen vast dat de
reductie van de impact van een Ecovillage zich in 90% van de gevallen situeert tussen
41% en 75%, met een gemiddelde en mediaan van 58%. Dat is een verbetering met
meer dan een factor twee.
- 30%
- 58%
Twee keer beter dan traditionele wijk
- 58%

De gemiddelde leeftijd is 48, het gemiddelde jaarlijks inkomen per huishouden be-
draagt 3.550 ¤, 51% van de bevolking is vrouwelijk en 6% van de huishoudens heeft
een lidmaatschap bij een natuurvereniging.
De natuurwaardeverkenner neemt voor deze gegevens, deze oppervlakte en dit
natuurtype de volgende regulerende ecosysteemdiensten in rekening:
Waarde
Nitraatverwijdering via biolo- 19 kg N / jaar 1.437 ¤ / jaar
C opslag in bodem, strooi-
sellaag en biomassa
5 ton / jaar 987 ¤ / jaar
N opslag in bodem 136 ton / jaar 10.065 ¤ / jaar
P opslag in biomassa 1 ton / jaar 878 ¤ / jaar
stof)
50 kg PM / jaar 1.487 ¤ / jaar
Geluidsreductie door bossen 54 dBA met bos 19.488 ¤ / jaar15
TOTAAL 34.342 ¤ / jaar
Ecovillages: natuurwaardeverkenner
Openbaar groen levert voor 34.000 € / jaar
aan ecosysteem diensten

source: Al Gore — “Our choice”

0
80
160
240
320
400
2007 2010
400
342
(bn$)
400 bn$
Worldwide fossil fuel ‘subsidy’
2
0
1
1
WORLD
ENERGY
OUTLOOK
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

0
2
3
5
6
Renewable Fossil
5.6
1.5
bn€
the Netherlands:
4 times more ‘subsidy’ for
fossil than for renewable energy
(Ecofys, 2011)

100 GW Wind EU
• 39 nuclear powerplants
• 57 million europeans
27 Sep 2012

Source: Massive Change
New sources of solar income

BENEFITS OF NORTH AFRICAN SOLAR
Both the EU-27 and
North Africa will
benefit from their
introduction into the
European Energy grid.
40.000 ft

High Voltage DC connects it all

Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon EuropeRoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMO
Compared to current
transmission
infrastructure,
the requirements
for transmission
capacity between
the regions defined
in the technical
report are
significant.
INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS

Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMORoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
EU GRID ICONOGRAPHY

Roadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe OMA/AMORoadmap 2050: A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe

John Doerr
Venture Capitalist (Kleiner Perkins)

Managing the innovator’s dilemma
0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Proﬁt
CO2
€
NEW RECTICEL
€
AS IS

Kodak: world’s ﬁrst digital camera (1975)

You,
as professionals,
voters,
consumers
can rise to the occasion
and help shape
the next industrial revolution.

Climate change--choose your future wisely.

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