Smart Metropolia 2014, AmberExpo Gdańsk

1. SMART CITIES CONGRESS
Gdansk, 22-23 October, 2014
Gunnar Heinsohn
CAN WE SURVIVE WITHOUT IMMIGRATION?

2. 34 Countries (blue) in OECD (Poland member since 1996) will, in 2020, be short of 18 million
high-skilled workers but must pay welfare vor 35 million unemployable people.
2

3. Polish Immigration and Emigration 1960-2006
http://focus-migration.hwwi.de/typo3_upload/groups/3/focus_Migration_Publikationen/Laenderprofile/bilder/Country-profiles/cp-03-poland/grafic2_gr.gif

4. 2011: 56 AGING – “DYING” – NATIONS (TOTAL FERTILITY
RATE [=CHILDREN IN AWOMAN’S LIFETIME] BELOW 1.8
(NON-EUROPEANS IN RED; NET REPRODUCTION REQUIRES 2.1)
USA 2.06
UK 1.92
Trinidad
1.72
Cuba
1.61
Portuga
l 1.50
Estonia
1.43
Armenia
1.36
Moldova
1.28
Japan
1.20
Australia
1.78
Tunisia
1.71
Canada
1.58
Albania
1.47
Bulgaria
1.41
Germany
1.36
Romania
1.27
Taiwan
1.15
Luxembg.
1.78
Sweden
1.67
Macedon
. 1.58
Spain
1.47
Russia
1.41
Slovakia
1.36
Ukraine
1.27
Singapore
1.10
Lebanon
1.78
Netherl.
1.66
China
1.54
Switzer.
1.46
Austria
1.39
Italy
1.32
Bosnia+H.
1.26
HongKong
1.04
Norway
1.77
Belgium
1.65
Liechten.
1.53
Cyprus
1.45
Serbia
1.39
Latvia
1.31
Czech R.
1.25
Macau
0.91
Denmark
1.74
Thailand
1.65
Malta
1.52
Georgia
1.44
Hungary
1.39
Poland
1.29
Lithuania
1.24
Finland
1.73
PuertoR.
1.62
Monaco
1.50
Croatia
1.43
Greece
1.37
Slovenia
1.29
Korea, S.
1.22

5. Communism‘s last decade (1980-1989) has cost
Poland 1.2 million of the best and the brightest
(http://focus-migration.hwwi.de/Poland.2810.0.html?&L=1)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Between 1980 and 1989, an estimated 1.1 to 1.3
million Poles have left Poland for good.
24,000 fewer inhabitants to make TRICITY
(ca. 2% of Polands population) smarter!
------------------------------------------------------------

6. POLES IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poles_in_the_United_Kingdom#mediaviewer/File:Polish-born_people_in_employment_in_the_UK_2003-2010_-_chart_2369a_at_statistics_gov_uk.gif).
POLES IN THE UNITED
KINGDOM
>60,711 Polish-born (2001 Census)
>579,000 Polish-born (2011 Census)
>850,000 resident Poles (May 2012)
>637,000 Polish citizens residing in the
UK for more than 2 months (2013)

7. POLES IN GERMANY
Poles with Polish citizenship living 2013 in
Germany:
609.855
(“Ausländische Bevölkerung 2007-2013“;
destatis.)
People with ethnic Polish background 2009 in
Germany:
1.5 million
(Sebastian Nagel, Zwischen zwei Welten:
Kulturelle Strukturen der polnischsprachigen
Bevölkerung in Deutschland. Analyse und
Empfehlungen, Stuttgart: Institut für
Auslandsbeziehungen, 2009, p. 9.)

8. Just in 2012 Germany welcomed 184,325 Poles
(173,000 in 2011).[http://www.derwesten.de/wirtschaft/zuwanderung-nach-deutschland-auf-rekordhoehe-id7927281.html]

9. HOLDERS OF POLISH PASSPORTS LIVING ABROAD (IN MILLION)
[Polish Ministry of Finance; http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47717194-4b80-11e2-88b5-00144feab49a.html#axzz3C3oBv7fI]
• 2011: 2.1 million
[=45,000 fewer
inhabitants
for making
TRICITY
smarter!]

10. If Germany is a reliable indicator for the ratio between
Polish passport holders living abroad and ethnic Poles living
abroad (1:2.5) there are some 5.5 million ethnic Poles abroad.
That is a total loss of ca.
110,000 smart inhabitants
that would have made TRICITY smarter.

11. Qualifications of emigrants from Eastern Europe (Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Chech R., Hungary) 2008 and 2011
Dark blue: high; light blue: middle; red: low.
[http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article131844972/Kluge-Koepfe-machen-um-Deutschland-lieber-einen-Bogen.html]

12. Emigrants of the 1980s left two siblings behind to secure netto-reproduction.
Emigrants from 2010 ff. left less than one sibling behind,
thereby ending netto-reproduction.
• Poles of the cohorts 1950-
1960, who have been
emigrating in the 1980s,
were born at a time when
Poland‘s total fertility
(children in a woman‘s
lifetime) stood at ca.
• 3.5
• Poles of the cohorts 1990-
1994, who have been
emigrating 2010-2014,
were born at a time when
Poland‘s total fertility
(children in a woman‘s
lifetime) stood at ca.
• 1.7

13. There Are More Difficult Cases Than Poland

14. Just Look at Bulgaria and the Baltic States!

15. Poland’s and Eastern Europe’s Mortal Dangers
1 Low total fertility (1.2. to 1.4
children in a woman’s life time).
2 High elite emigration.
3 Low attraction for skilled immigrants.
4 Low innovation (few patents).
5 No technological leadership to set
prices.
6 Low competitiveness
7 Low quality of aging

16. GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS 2014 [POLAND: No. 36]
(http://www.imd.org/news/2014-World-Competitiveness.cfm)

17. Quality of Aging: Global Ranking 2014 (POLAND: No. 62)
[http://www.helpage.org/global-agewatch/data/global-rankings-table/]