Professor Jonathan Bradshaw. Child poverty in the UK. Opening plenary. Scottish Assembly for Tackling Poverty, Glasgow, 17 February 2011.

1. Scottish Assembly for Tackling Poverty
Royal Concert Hall
Glasgow
17 February 2011

2. Moral arguments – religious duty
Justice arguments – it is not fair, children not
to blame
Poor investment – poor outcomes - waste of
talent
Poverty associated with many social problems
that harm us all
Costs a lot – losing 1% of GDP per year
Key indicator of government failure

3. No reduction in the UK since 2004/5 – 2010
will be target missed
UK child poverty still comparatively much too
high
Recession - children singled out for cuts
Consensus represented by the Child poverty
Act is being dissipated
Moves to change the targets and emasculate
the Child Poverty Commission
Not clear that children are at the heart of the
EU 2020 poverty targets

4. 40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1979
1981
1987
1988/89 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/95 1994/96 1995/97
Before housing costs
After housing costs

5. Prime Minister’s pledge 1999:
“Our historic aim, that ours is the first generation
to end child poverty forever….It’s a 20 year
mission but I believe it can be done”

6. Manage economy to ensure low
inflation and high employment
Welfare to work – modest dividends
Increases in in-work benefits
Increases in out-of-work
Big invest in services - health,
education childcare
Institutional transformation

7. (Before the recession) employment at record
levels
Child poverty rate fell until 2004/5 – nearly met
five year target
Child poverty gap reduced
UK one of only seven countries in OECD to
have reduction in child poverty 1995-2005
UK moved up the international league table
All party consensus in Child Poverty Act –
sensible targets new commitment to develop a
strategy
Here is some data

13. Little change in family composition lone
parents now 38% of child poverty
Big change in % workless down from 55%41% - majority of poor children working
poor
Poor families getting smaller – 3+ down 49%38%
Fewer in Scotland poverty rate down from 2921% BHC and 32-25% AHC.

14. Relative low income = Equivalised net household
income less than 60% median 2020 target: <10% of
children
Combined low income and material deprivation =
Material deprivation >20% and equivalised net
household income less than 70% median 2020 target:
<5% of children
‘Absolute’ low income= Equivalised net household
income falling below 60% of the ‘adjusted base
amount’ 2020 target: <5% of children
Persistent poverty= Equivalised net household income
less than 60% of median for 3 years prior to current
year 2020 target: not yet set

16. 400
Poverty threshold
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
Hours per week on minimum wage (£5.73 per hour)
Child benefit
Child tax credit
net earnings
Income support
Working tax credit
Housing benefit
Council tax benefit

17. Poverty was dire after the Tory years.
After a slow start much was being achieved.
Treatment right - dose inadequate
Minimum Wage and in-work benefit levels
still too low
Further big increases in out-of-work benefit
levels needed
Waiting for 2009/10 FRS
Labour policies in the pipe-line – might lift
600,000 more children lifted out of poverty

18. Two +tive measures on child poverty
Child tax credit uprated above inflation next two years
Increase in income tax threshold
Huge list of –tive measures + impact of general
cuts
Whole package regressive
Children have done much worse than pensioners
IFS say it will increase child poverty
Unemployment up – youth at record levels
Discourse has become behavioural
Field and Allen – early intervention
Expect to despair when the child poverty strategy
published in March!