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Towards An Exabyte Broadband World
1. Towards an Exabyte Broadband World Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy IIC 40 th Annual Meeting 26 October 2009
2. The History of Internet Projections, Part I Analyst projections in 1996 Actuals
3. The History of Internet Projections, Part II Analyst projections in 2001 Actuals
4. Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global IP Traffic Growth How often do you upload video you created to a public website? Analyzing Residential, Business and Mobile IP Networking Trends 46% CAGR 2007-2012 Based on Cisco’s methodology and independent analysts’ projections ( VNI Forecast ), WW consumer surveys and feedback ( VNI Pulse ), and global Service Provider network data ( VNI Usage ), Cisco is developing a unique and comprehensive view of IP networking growth and trends worldwide. 0 25,000 50,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PB/mo Mobility Business Internet Business IP WAN Consumer Internet Consumer IPTV/CATV
5. The Zettabyte Scale 5 Exabytes A transcript of all words ever spoken 20 Yottabytes A holographic snapshot of the earth’s surface 200 Terabytes A digital library of all books ever written in any language 175 Exabytes The amount of data that will cross the Internet in 2010 alone 150 Exabytes The amount of data that has traversed the Internet since its creation 100 Petabytes The amount of data produced in a single minute by the new particle collider at CERN 100 Exabytes A video recording of the all the meetings that took place last year across the world 66 Zettabytes The amount of visual information conveyed from the eyes to the brain of the entire human race in a single year Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index 1 Petabyte 1,000 Terabytes or 250,000 DVDs 1 Exabyte 1,000 Petabytes or 250 million DVDs 1 Zettabyte 1,000 Exabytes or 250 billion DVDs 1 Yottabyte 1,000 Zettabytes or 250 trillion DVDs
6. Global IP Traffic Growth IP traffic will increase 6X from 2007 to 2012 In 2012, half a zettabyte will cross the global network 46% CAGR 2007-2012 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012
7. Global Consumer Internet Traffic Mix Video will be nearly 50% of traffic by 2012 41% CAGR 2007-2012 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012
8. Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth Video will account for 64% of mobile traffic by 2013 131% CAGR 2008 - 2013 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2008-2013 64% 10% 19% 7%
9. Unpredictability of Traffic Growth: An Era of Minority Rule? Source: Cisco, 2008 4 million consumers downloading 2 HD movies per month 50 million consumers watching 50 YouTube videos per month
12. Matching Broadband to Applications “Fit for Purpose” Networks Bandwidth Low High High Low Telepresence Voice HD-IPTV Sensitive to Latency Streaming Audio Gaming (LD) Gaming (HD) Email Download Video Streaming Video
Within consumer Internet, the applications mix will shift from being dominated by browsing and Internet applications, to video streaming and downloads, to Internet video delivered directly to an IP set-top. Web browsing and email shrink from 31% of 2005 traffic to 23% of traffic in 2011. By 2011, Internet video will account for 28% of consumer Internet traffic. Starting in 2011, Internet-video-to-TV will generate more traffic than Internet-video-to-PC.
