Bill Brooks: The US and Asia after the Presidential Elections & Leadership Changes in Asia

1. From Election Campaign to the Post-Election Prospects

2. How the Democratic and GOP presidential candidates treated
Asia and Asia policy in the 2012 election campaign

3. First, Let us examine how China
was treated in the 2012 campaign:

4. 2012: Political ire toward China

5.  In the 2012 election, both parties cranked up their
rhetoric against the world’s second-largest
economy
 China-bashing easy and cheap for US candidates
 China-bashing used to attract American voters
 There is a lot of talk about the polarization of
political parties in the U.S. these days. But party
candidates from the left or the right, liberal or
conservative, seem to unite on one issue –
bashing China
The China-bashing syndrome:
Demonizing China

6. For both US political parties, the
target was the same: China

7. The arguments sound familiar:
China stealing US jobs

8. Some companies accused of
treachery, another familiar theme

9. Political War on China
The Romney and Obama campaigns ran TV commercials about
who is softer on China, and who is more to blame for sending
American jobs there.
The Romney ad: “Under Obama we’ve lost over half a million
manufacturing jobs, and for the first time China is beating us.
Seven times Obama could have stopped China’s cheating. Seven
times he refused.” Then it cuts to Mr. Romney, who declares, “It’s
time to stand up to the cheaters and make sure we protect jobs
for the American people.”
The announcer concludes, “Barack Obama failing to stop cheating,
failing American workers.”
Obama ad opens on an incredulous note. “Mitt Romney tough on
China?” an announcer asks. “Romney’s companies were called
pioneers in shipping U.S. manufacturing jobs overseas. He
invested in firms that specialized in relocating jobs to low-wage
countries like China. Even today part of Romney’s fortune is
invested in China. Romney never stood up to China. All he’s done
is send them our jobs.”

10. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYKAbRK_wKA

11. Clever Propaganda, Bad Facts
 If you know anything about the Chinese economy, the
actual analytical content in the commercial is
hilariously wrong.
 The ad has the Chinese official saying that America
collapsed because, in the midst of a recession, it relied
on (a) government stimulus spending, (b) big changes
in its health care systems, and (c) public intervention
in major industries -- all of which of course have been
critical parts of China's (successful) anti-recession
policy.

12. The King-Kong-like investment
threat from China

13. The Economist spotted the trend

14. Campaign Memories

15. JAPAN’S 100 YEARS OF DECLINE
 Some tough words about Japan from Mitt Romney at his
New York City fundraiser on 8/9/12, per pool reporter Zeke
Miller:
 "I know when things are tough as they have been for the
last three-and-a-half, four years people begin to think it’s
always … [inaudible] … We are not Japan. We are not going
to be a nation that suffers in decline and distress for a
decade or a century. We’re on the cusp of a very different
economic future than the one people have seen over the
past three years."
 UPDATE: The line about declining for "a century" was a
surprise; others, including President Obama in 2009. have
spoken about the "long decade of decline" that Japan
suffered from. Romney’s statement was off the mark.

16. Reactions to Romney’s Remark
 Japan experts on both sides of the Pacific responded
that Romney’s assertion that Japan has been in
decline for “a century” shows ignorance of a nation
that emerged from the ashes of World War II to build
the world’s second- (now third-) largest economy on a
small island with few natural resources.
 Moreover, they worry that Romney is needlessly
insulting the face-conscious Japanese and giving them
the impression that is he wins in November, his
administration won’t appreciate the importance of
America’s top alliance in the East at a time when the
United States is attempting a diplomatic and military
“pivot” to Asia.

17. Silent on American allies
 Romney in his campaign seemed overly concerned
about protecting allied and friendly governments
against the least offense
 As a result, he rarely said much about U.S. allies one
way or the other. If one reviews his campaign website,
one finds that Japan is one of the very few treaty allies
that received any mention
 Even then, references to Japan and South Korea in
that part were perfunctory and told us almost nothing

18. Hardly any mention of Japan, let along Asia, in the long
campaign.
Yet, once upon a time, Japan would have been fair game in
the election campaigns on both U.S. political parties.

19. In the 1980s and early 1980s,
Washington was awash in waves of
“Japan Bashing” that in some ways
resemble the “China Bashing” of
the 2012 Presidential Campaign

21. 1980s: Japan Bashing (Nihon-tataki)
1990s on: Japan Passing
2001-06: Japan Rising (under PM Koizumi)
2007-09: Japan Nothing
2009-: Japan Falling (apart)
Perceptions and Slogans

23. After SONY purchased Columbia
(Newsweek)

24. “Revisionist” Views of Japan
Assumptions:
-- Japan’s economy inherently closed, protected by non-
tariff barriers
-- Japanese capitalism is unique to it, with international
rules, signals not applicable
-- Japan’s economic system is adversarial and a threat,
designed to gain industrial dominance by
undermining competitors (predatory practices)
--Japan was an “outlier nation” that must be contained

25. Revisionist Views of Japan
Revisionist policy prescriptions:
-- US must recognize Japan as different, closed, and a
threat
-- US must meet the challenge by industrial policy
emulating Japan’s
-- US needs to pursue numerical market share targets in
order to gain access to the Japanese market: Make
Japan guarantee US a share of the market
-- Clinton administration tried in trade negotiations to
force Japan to accept numerical import targets

26. Rising Sun depicts
American paranoia
Michael Crichton wrote RISING SUN in
1992, when Japan was considered a big
economic threat to the United States.
Since then, Japan's economy has fallen
into a long-term recession, and it has sold
back many of the American properties it
purchased over a decade ago. Japan is still
a serious economic force, but it's no
longer the economic bogeyman it used to
be.
There's a decent murder mystery in
RISING SUN, but this novel is essentially
an excuse for Crichton to express his fear
of Japanese business practices. Much of
the dialogue in this novel is stilted, and is
merely a front for Crichton to express his
view that the American way of doing
business is outdated, and cannot compete
effectively against Japanese methods.
Many of the characters are nothing more
than caricatures designed to push this
message.
The novel was made into a movie starring
Sean Connery.

28. Detroit Workers Smash Japanese Car

29. What “anti-Japanese” incident
occurred in Detroit in June 1982?

30. Japan-bashing=Asian-bashing
Vincent Jen Chin was a Chinese-American beaten to death in June 1982, in
Detroit Michigan.
The perpetrators were Chrysler plant superintendent Ronald Ebens and his
stepson, Michael Nitz. The murder generated public outrage over the lenient
sentencing the two men originally received in a plea bargain, as the attack,
which included blows to the head from a baseball bat, possessed many
attributes consistent with hate crimes. Chin was killed because his attackers
believed he was Japanese.
Ebens never served a day in jail for killing Chin. Many of the layoffs in Detroit's
auto industry, including Nitz's in 1979, had been due to the increasing market
share of Japanese automakers, leading to allegations that Chinese American
Vincent Chin received racially charged comments before his death.
[ The case became a rallying point for the Asian-American community, and Ebens
and Nitz were put on trial for violating Chin's civil rights. Because the
subsequent Federal prosecution was a result of public pressure from a coalition
of many Asian ethnic organizations, Vincent Chin's murder is often considered
the beginning of a pan-ethnic Asian American movement

31. A similar incident occurred but this time in another country …..

32. In China, similar Japan-bashing
incident in 2012

33. Man beaten for driving Japanese
car in Xi’an China 2012
In September, Li Jianli was beaten almost to death by a
mob and a month later lay partially paralyzed on a
hospital bed with his skull smashed in and his
speaking ability reduced to a few simple phrases.
Mr. Li’s only offense, apparently, was driving a Japanese
car. A mob stopped his car on a wide boulevard in the
middle of Xi’an and beat him to a pulp.

34. Ushering in a long period of economic decline for
Japan: The “Lost Decade” that ultimately
stretched out to two decades of sluggish growth

35. As a result, Japan in the 1990s was seen as
irrelevant. The slogan “Japan Passing” was
picked up by the media
 According to the Economist, the phrase “Japan
Passing” has two meanings: (1) that world’s then
second largest economy was being passed by in a fast-
changing world, and (2) that Japan could no longer
even be taken seriously.
 It may have originated when then president Clinton
made a nine-day visit to China in 1998 but did not stop
off in Japan.

36. By the 2000s, Japan Nothing is the theme

37. Expectations of Japan and China in the year ahead

38. What kind of Asia policy would a President
Romney pursue?
What would be expected of Japan in the Alliance?
How would a Romney administration deal with
China?

39. Political instability, economic uncertainty, and a plethora of
diplomatic, security, trade, economic and energy issues.

40. Came into office with a promise of strong leadership,
decisiveness, and cohesiveness in policy process, but facing
major policy challenges that ultimately he may not overcome

41. Noda’s Relationship with Obama
has been much better than his
predecessors’

42. Accomplishments and Challenges
 Noda has continued to strengthen the alliance
 Joint training between the SDF and USFJ for remote-
island contingencies
 But Okinawa basing issues remain unresolved and
some might argue getting worse:
 Futenma relocation is on hold
 Osprey deployment to Futenma opposed by Okinawa
 Another serious crime by U.S. servicemen, followed by a
crime by another servicemen after curfew
 Okinawa governor in between a rock and a hard place

43. Okinawa Governor Nakaima

44. Noda’s Security Policy Agenda
 PKO to Sudan
 Beefed up anti-piracy operation in waters off Somalia
 Accepted U.S. offer to engage the SDF in full-scaled
training with U.S. forces in Guam and Tinian, positing
the defense of Japan’s remote islands
 Emerging strategic view (with Defense Chief Satoshi
Morimoto) toward China
 Morimoto has requested US for updated Defense
Cooperation Guidelines (reflecting current security
environment)

45. Noda’s Security Agenda
(continued)
 Noda in Dec. 2011 cleared the way for easing
restrictions on arms export to make it possible for
Japan to participate in development and production of
military equipment with other countries
 The decision especially affects development of the F-
35, Japan’s next-generation fighter
 Japan’s defense industry gets a boost, too

46. New Set of Defense Cooperation
Guidelines
 If the DPJ stays in power, expect to see the U.S. and
Japan revise the current set of bilateral defense
cooperation guidelines that provide for joint steps
during a contingency
 The last revision in 1997 was based on a Korean
Peninsula contingency
 The next one will update the focus based on security
changes involving China and the E. and S. China seas

47. Ballistic Missile Defense
 During Secretary Panetta's visit to Japan, it was
announced that the US and Japan have agreed to set
up a second missile defense system on Japanese soil in
an effort to counter the ballistic missile threat from
North Korea
 China does not agree it is solely intended for the North
Korean threat

48. Noda Administration in Crisis

49. Can Noda Survive?

50. Noda May Call Snap Election
 With his third cabinet shuffle in a year, and pressured
to dissolve the Diet in November for an early Lower
House election once two critical bills are passed, Noda
seems unable to avoid making good on his promise to
the opposition LDP-Komeito
 But his party will run with only a fraction of its original
strength (next slide), and it is likely that the DPJ will
lose.
 TPP may be entangled in the election campaign,
further splitting his party.

51. Party Strength in Lower House

52. DPJ vs. LDP in the Polls

53. Future of the DPJ seems bleak
 Likelihood of the DPJ returning to the opposition
camp
 Possibility of the LDP not winning a majority of seats
in the Lower House
 This would require parties to scramble to form a ruling
coalition
 This could return the LDP to power as a member of a
coalition that could include several small or splinter
parties

54. The Territorial Issues
 Noda’s biggest challenge has been the territorial rows
with China and South Korea. First, the ROK:
 The feud over the Takeshima-Dokdo isles with the
ROK stemmed from a political stunt by outgoing
President Lee Myung-bak
 The issue is likely to be quietly back-burnered after the
ROK elections, as cooler heads prevail
 But deep wounds have been inflicted in the bilateral
relationship that will take time to heal
 Security ties (including GSOMIA and ACSA) hurt

55. China Extends Boundary

56. China’s Shore-Sea Air Battle Concept

57. Senkaku Islands (Dyaoyu-dao)

58. The GOJ purchase of the Senkakus set off a huge wave
of violence against Japan all over China

59. Asahi Poll of Japan-China Relations
in 2012

60. Translation of Asahi
Poll
Japan: Current state of Japan-China
relations?
Going well: 5%; Not going well: 90%
Previous poll in 2010:
Going well: 45%; Not going well: 45%
China: Current state of China-Japan
relations?
Going well: 14%; Not going well: 83%
Previous poll in 2010:
Going well: 22%; Not going well 50%
Current poll: Top three issues in order
Japan: Territorial, History, Econ.
friction
China: History, Territorial, Military
buildup

61. Rioters smash cars, burn buildings

62. Demonstrators at Japanese Dept.
Store

63. The sign above the
entrance reads:
"JAPANESE GUESTS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY BEING
ACCOMMODATED BY OUR
HOTEL"

64. The irony is this is
at an Audi
dealership!
Employees at a dealership
hold up a sign that says WE
WILL KILL EVERY JAPANESE
PERSON EVEN IF IT MEANS
DEATHS FOR OUR OWN;
EVEN POVERTY WILL NOT
DETER US FROM
RECLAIMING THE DIAOYU
ISLANDS

65. Japanese brand cars
are overturned by
rioters
This happened all over China

66. Riots like these
occurred in over
100 cities
The sign in the foreground
reads DEFEND DIAOYU
ISLANDS TILL OUR
DEATHS and FUCK JAPAN

67. There was no end
to the insulting
images
The pig has a Japanese flag
symbol on its head

68. New Leaders in China: Change in
Posture toward Japan?