theory of population ..

2. Malthusian Theory of
Population

3. Outline:
1.Principal of Population
2.The Malthusian Population Trap
3.Solution to Malthusian Trap
4.Limitations of the Malthusian Model
5.The Micro-economic Household Theory of Fertility

4. Outline:
6.Demand for Children Equation
7.The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries
8.Criticism on Malthus Theory
9.Implementation in Pakistan
10.Neo-Malthusian Theory

5. Principal of Population
"Population, when unchecked, increases at a
geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an
arithmetical ratio.
A slight acquaintance with numbers will show the
immensity of the first power in with the second."

6. Principal of Population(Contn’d)
Population must always be kept down to the
level of the means of subsistence.”
Malthus was the first to inquire into
“the means by which this level is effected.”

7. Principal of Population(Contn’d)
Man has no natural predators (save for other men).
"The passion between the sexes has appeared in
every age to be so nearly the same, that it may
always be considered, in algebraic language as a
given quantity."

8. Population, when unchecked, will double itself
every twenty-five years.
"...Supposing the present population equal to a
thousand million, the human species would increase
as the numbers 1, 2, 4, 8,16, 32,64,128,256, and
subsistence as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9...

9. The Malthusian Population Trap
The Malthusian Population Trap Suggests that the
population will be forced to live at the subsistence
level of income as population growth outstrips
growth in the supply of food. Population grows at
a geometric rate while food supplies expand only at
an arithmetic rate Per capita income would have
the tendency to fall so low as to lead to a stable
population existing barely at or slightly above the
subsistence level.

10. Solutions Preventive checks (birth control, moral
restraint) Positive checks (starvation, disease, wars)
Thomas Malthus argued that because of the
natural human urge to reproduce human
population increases geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16, 32,
64, 128, 256, etc.). However, food supply, at most,
can only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,
etc.).
Solution to Malthusian Trap

13. Limitations of the Malthusian Model
1. They do not take adequate account of te role and impact
of technological progess.
2. They are based on a hypothesis about a macro
relationship between population gowth and levels of per
capita income that does not stand up to imperical testing.
3. They focus on the wrong variable, per capita income, as
the pricipal determinant of population growth rates. A
much better and more valid approach to the question of
population and development centers on the micro
economics of family size decision making in which
individual, and not aggregate, levels of living become the
principal deteminant of a family’s decision to have more
or fewer children.

14. The Micro-economic Household
Theory of Fertility
The Micro-economic Household Theory of
Fertility People choose how many children to
"consume" as part of their utility maximization
problem. Children in LDCs can be thought of as
investment goods. Demand for children is
determined by Family preferences for a certain
number of surviving (usually male) children
Price or “opportunity cost” of rearing children
(mother’s time to earn, educational attainment of
children relative to earning potential) By levels of
family income.

15. The microeconomic theory of fertility is useful
here because it asks the question why a family
would decide to rear children in the first place.
The economics of the family asks what kinds of
incentives are involved. After all, the decisions
being made are often not based on society’s
natural capital, or local wage levels. Family
decisions are often made at the microeconomic
rather than the macroeconomic level.

16. Demand for Children Equation
Where
Cd is the demand for surviving children
Y is the level of household income
Pc is the “net” price of children
Px is price of all other goods
tx is the tastes for goods relative to children
nxtPPYfC xxcd ,...,1),,,,( 

17. Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:
0


Y
Cd
0


c
d
P
C
0


x
d
P
C
0


x
d
t
C
nxtPPYfC xxcd ,...,1),,,,( 

18. The Causes of High Fertility in
Developing Countries: The Household
Model
The microeconomic household theory of fertility
The demand for children in developing countries
Some empirical evidence
Implications for development and fertility

25. Criticism on Malthus Theory
In general, Malthus was criticized on the following
points:
(1) He placed undue emphasis on the limitation of
the supply of land.
(2) Malthus under-estimated the importance of
industrial development.
(3) His religious beliefs prevented him from
grasping the possibility of the widespread use of
contraceptives.

26. Implementation in Pakistan
If we concentrate on Malthusian theory we can
say that it is true at least for Pakistan. Pakistan’s
population is increasing rapidly and it is unable to
produce resources at the same rate of as of
population growth.
Pakistan is not able to produce sufficient food for
its people. People are starving, not able to
purchase things of basic necessities.

27. Neo-Malthusian Theory
Neo-Malthusianism generally refers to people
with the same basic concerns as Malthus, who
advocate for population control programs, to
ensure resources for current and future
populations.
Neo-Malthusians seem to differ from Malthus's
theories mainly in their enthusiasm for
contraceptive techniques