2. Background
• First civilian government completing it’s term
• Chief Election Commissioner appointed through
parliamentary consensus for the first time in the
country’s history
• Caretaker government to be decided in
consultation instead of being chosen by the
president
3. The Political Barometer Survey
• Covers a wide range of socio-political indicators
• Conducted across broad sections of the society
• Rapid assessment around 1,300 respondents in 52
districts, reflecting on issues like electoral reform,
governance, security, interprovincial relations, arts
and culture, civil rights, and foreign policy
• Strata take account of ethno-linguistic lines instead
of the traditional provincial demarcation
4. Sampling
• Demographic sample based on the population
census of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
• Stratified Sampling
▫ Ethno-linguistic
▫ Gender
▫ Urban/Rural
▫ Age
▫ Income
▫ Educational qualification
5. Questionnaire, interviews, and
challenges
• Both open-ended as well as close-ended questions to
minimize biases
• Conducted in 52 districts across Balochistan, FATA,
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Sindh
• Occasional reluctance and difficulty by respondents to
respond to a few questions
• The data was verified through randomly contacting
reluctant respondants
• Respondents’ understanding of technical terms like MFN
6. Issues
Electoral
Process
Civil
Military Corruption
Relations
Inter-
Foreign
provincial
Policy
relations
Political Internal
Economy Security
7. Electoral Process
Most transparent party while contesting
elections
Others PPP
25% 24%
PMLN
PTI 24%
27%
16. Relations with neighbors
Preference to vote for a party that...
Opposes
peaceful ties
with India
17%
Maintains a
neutral stance
38%
Pledges peaceful
ties with India
28%
A party's stance
on relations with
India will not
factor in my
decision making
17%
17. Should Pakistan promote a government
favourable to its own interests in
Afghanistan?
Maybe Yes
32% 33%
No
35%
18. Party that can best handle Pakistan's
foreign affairs
Others
20% PPP
30%
PTI
21%
PMLN
29%
19. Internal Security
Government's engagement with Taliban
should focus on...
Other
1%
Negotiation Negotiation
and military 36%
action
39%
Military
action
24%
20. Party that can best counter religious
violence
PPP
Others 24%
30%
PMLN
PTI 26%
20%
21. Party that can best counter sectarian
violence
PPP
22%
Others
32%
PMLN
24%
PTI
22%
22. Political Economy
Economic issues facing Pakistan
Unemploym
Others ent
23% 21%
Foreign debt
Energy
burden
shortage
12%
19%
Inflation Currency
12% devaluation
13%
23. Pressing issues based on education
levels
Higher Levels of Education Lower Levels of Education
• Extremism • Inflation
• Political instability • Gender
• Interprovincial discrimination
problems • Food shortages
29. Power: equitable
distribution between all
provinces?
Maybe Yes
19% 12%
Water: equitable distribution
No between all provinces?
69%
Maybe Yes
20% 17%
No
63%
39. Opinions on domestic violence
Sometimes No opinion
justified, som 5%
etimes
unjustified
16%
Acceptable
2%
Unacceptable
77%
40. Opinions on honour killings
No opinion
7%
Acceptable
Sometimes 11%
justified, som
etimes
unjustified
19%
Unacceptable
63%
41. Lifestyle and cultural issues influencing
voter’s preference
Its policy on
women
contesting
elections
Others 15%
33%
Its policy on
coeducation
14%
Its policy on
purdah
Its policy on
14%
performing
arts Its policy on
13% women
working
alongside men
11%
42. Minorities
Should non-Muslims have rights equal to
the rights of Muslims in Pakistan?
Maybe
15%
No
13%
Yes
72%
43. Should non-Muslims have freedom to
practice their religion in Pakistan?
Maybe
10%
No
8%
Yes
82%
44. Should there be a separate voters list for
minorities in Pakistan?
Maybe
28% Yes
34%
No
38%
45. Opinions on the fairness and justness of
blasphemy laws in Pakistan
Maybe
23%
Yes
38%
No
39%
46. Voting trends
Party support within each age bracket*
PPP PMLN PTI Others
18%
26% 27% 25%
8%
23% 19% 18%
46%
22% 28%
24%
27% 32% 28% 28%
18-35 36-50 51-70 70+
*Does not include respondents who selected no party
47. Party support across different ethnicities
PPP PML-N PTI ANP BNP-Mengal
44%
11%
55%
46% 44% 43% 47%
34%
Sindhi Seraiki Hindko Punjabi Pakhtun Baloch
48. Voting trends vis-à-vis voting history
• Vote bank for PML-N Stagnant
• Vote bank for PPP Declined
• Vote bank for PTI Stronger urban base
49. Parties' supporters by monthly family
income
PPP PMLN PTI MQM JI PMLQ
Above Rs. 100,000 1% 3% 6% 9% 5% 3%
Rs. 45,000-100,000 2% 5% 10% 16% 8% 13%
Rs. 10,000-45,000 53% 55% 59% 50% 57% 41%
Rs. 10,000 or less 44% 37% 26% 25% 30% 44%
50. • PPP
▫ Roughly one-third of the respondents earning
below Rs. 30,000 indicate a preference for PPP
▫ Reinforces the pro-poor image of the party
▫ Support from those earning over Rs. 30,000
dropped to 10.8%
• PML-N
▫ Support appears similar across all income groups
• PTI
▫ 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to
vote for the party
51. • MQM
▫ 33% of those earning over Rs. 250,000 intend to
vote for the party
▫ Only 4% of those earning between Rs. 100,000
and 250,000 expressed intention to vote for the
party
▫ Below 100K
• Support for smaller parties appears to weaken as
income level rises
• PTI eroding PPP votebank
53. Scenario 1
• IF:
▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and its current
allies, ANP, MQM, and PML-Q
▫ Anti-PPP alliance at the same time: PML-
N, JUI, JI, minus PTI
• THEN:
▫ PPP and alliance may capture 38.1% of the vote
▫ Anti-PPP alliance, minus PTI, may secure 29.5%
▫ Together with the PTI, the anti-PPP alliance may
give a tougher time to PPP
54. Scenario 2
• IF:
▫ PPP partners with current allies – ANP and PML-Q
▫ MQM opts for the anti-PPP alliance; PTI decides not to
be part of either
• THEN:
▫ PPP and allies secure 33.9% of the votes
▫ Opposition alliance secures 33.7% of the votes
▫ Weaker government against a stronger opposition
• Option 1:
▫ PML-N led govt.: PPP and PTI form opposition
• Option 2:
▫ PPP led govt.: PML-N and PTI form opposition
55. Scenario 3
• IF:
▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and current allies –
ANP, MQM, and PML-Q
▫ Opposing alliance between PML-N and PTI
• THEN:
▫ PML-N and PTI jointly sweep through, capturing
45.0% of the votes relatively stable govt. at the
centre
▫ Anti-PPP parties may also join in
56. Scenario 4
• IF:
▫ Electoral alliance between PPP and PTI
▫ PML-N led strong opposing alliance
• THEN:
▫ PPP and PTI secure 49.3% of the votes stable
govt. at the centre
57. Scenario 5
• IF:
▫ PPP-led coalition with current allies
▫ PTI and JI partner for an alliance
▫ PML-N led alliance with JUI and other anti-PPP
parties
• THEN:
▫ PPP and allies secure 38.1% of the votes
▫ PTI and JI alliance secures 23.9%
▫ PML-N led alliance secures 25.9%
58. What is expected…
• Scenarios 3 and 4 unlikely
• Elections unlikely to be dominated by a single
political party
• PPP may have to continue with its current alliance
• An emerging PTI
• Likelihood of a strong opposition high
• Electorate divided over ‘crucial’ issues