ICT role in 21st century education and its challenges
Futures studies and social research for policy: an introduction.
1. Exploring
7 July 2009
Long-Term
Human
London
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Infinite Futures Futures
Futures studies and social research:
Visions for progress in policy and planning
Social Research Association
5. • From mechanism to organism
• Depression and revolution:
planning economies
• Post - WWII:
• Re-visioning Europe
• Re-defining national identity
and charting its course
• Operationalising the USA’s
golden age
• Developing the centrally
planned economies
History of
FS in Brief
6. • From mechanism to organism
• Depression and revolution:
planning economies
• Post - WWII:
• Re-visioning Europe
• Re-defining national identity
and charting its course
• Operationalising the USA’s
golden age
• Developing the centrally
planned economies
History of
FS in Brief
7. • From mechanism to organism
• Depression and revolution:
planning economies
• Post - WWII:
• Re-visioning Europe
• Re-defining national identity
and charting its course
• Operationalising the USA’s
golden age
• Developing the centrally
planned economies
History of
FS in Brief
8. • From mechanism to organism
• Depression and revolution:
planning economies
• Post - WWII:
• Re-visioning Europe
• Re-defining national identity
and charting its course
• Operationalising the USA’s
golden age
• Developing the centrally
planned economies
History of
FS in Brief
9. • From mechanism to organism
• Depression and revolution:
planning economies
• Post - WWII:
• Re-visioning Europe
• Re-defining national identity
and charting its course
• Operationalising the USA’s
golden age
• Developing the centrally
planned economies
History of
FS in Brief
10. • From mechanism to organism
• Depression and revolution:
planning economies
• Post - WWII:
• Re-visioning Europe
• Re-defining national identity
and charting its course
• Operationalising the USA’s
golden age
• Developing the centrally
planned economies
History of
FS in Brief
11. Early FS post-World War II:
Futures Primary
Region Focus Key Thinkers
approach Methods
Images & visioning, F. Polak, Pierre
Philosophical and
Europe Re-building planning, la Masse, B. de
visionary
prospective Jouvenel,
Resource Quantitative, Meadows, Kahn,
Systems modelling,
USA allocation and technical, Helmer, Gordon,
Delphi, scenarios
production method-based Glenn, de Geus
Planning the Quantitative; trend Malitza, Novaky,
Socialist Econometric
central extrapolation; goal- Sicinski, Zeman,
Economies forecasting
economy based forecasting Markovic
Visioning, Planning, trend
Developing El Mandjra, Ahamed,
Nation building econometrics, extrapolation,
world Sardar
post modernism critical analysis
12. Futures Studies Organizations.
Early:
Association Internationale Futuribles (www.futuribles.com);
Club of Rome (www.clubofrome.org);
World Futures Studies Federation (www.wfsf.org);
World Future Society (www.wfs.org).
More recent:
Association of Professional Futurists (www.profuturists.com);
Club of Amsterdam (www.clubofamsterdam.com);
Club of Budapest (www.clubo$udapest.org);
European Professional Futurists Conference Lucerne
(www.european-futurists.org);
The Kenos Circle (www.kenos.at).
13. Futures publications:
Classic texts:
- Dator’s “classics” bibliography at: http://www.infinitefutures.com/resources/bibliojad.shtml
- Inayatullah’s annotated futures bibliography at: http://www.metafuture.org/bio.htm
- Slaughter’s annotated bibliography at: http://foresightinternational.com.au/catalogue/
product_info.php?cPath=44&products_id=115
Journals and periodicals:
– Foresight: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/fs.htm
– Futures: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00163287
– Future Survey: http://www.wfs.org/fsurv.htm
– Futures Research Quarterly: http://www.wfs.org/frq.htm
– Journal of Futures Studies: http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw
– On The Horizon: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/oth.htm
– Technological Forecasting and Social Change: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/
journal/00401625
– World Futures: http://www.gbhap.com/journals/titles/02604027.asp
14. • University:
• 10 Graduate Programs Globally
• 90 Graduate Programs wth a
Futures Focus or Courses
• Endowments for Research Centers
• Growing Consulting Field
• Increasing Government Initiatives
Courtesy John Smart
http://www.accelerating.org/gradprograms.html
A robust variety.
15. Diversity.
Philosophical Futurists
Planners and Prospective
Quantitative Forecasting
Operational Analysis and Systems Dynamics
“21st Century Studies”
Macrohistories and Macrohistorians
Marxists, neo-Marxists, Critical Theorists
Boomers, Doomers, and Trans-hum-ers
19. • Complex Evolving Systems
• Analyse Images and Narratives
• Explore Alternative Futures
Convergence.
20. • Complex Evolving Systems
• Analyse Images and Narratives
• Explore Alternative Futures
• Strategic and Accountable
Convergence.
21. • Complex Evolving Systems
• Analyse Images and Narratives
• Explore Alternative Futures
• Strategic and Accountable
• Post-disciplinary
Convergence.
22. • Complex Evolving Systems
• Analyse Images and Narratives
• Explore Alternative Futures
• Strategic and Accountable
• Post-disciplinary
• A Global Dialogue:
Convergence.
23. • Complex Evolving Systems
• Analyse Images and Narratives
• Explore Alternative Futures
• Strategic and Accountable
• Post-disciplinary
• A Global Dialogue:
• Focus: long-range future for
humanity and the planet -- the
global problematique;
Convergence.
24. • Complex Evolving Systems
• Analyse Images and Narratives
• Explore Alternative Futures
• Strategic and Accountable
• Post-disciplinary
• A Global Dialogue:
• Focus: long-range future for
humanity and the planet -- the
global problematique;
• Participatory and inclusive;
Convergence.
25. • Complex Evolving Systems
• Analyse Images and Narratives
• Explore Alternative Futures
• Strategic and Accountable
• Post-disciplinary
• A Global Dialogue:
• Focus: long-range future for
humanity and the planet -- the
global problematique;
• Participatory and inclusive;
• Disturbs the present.
Convergence.
27. New paradigms
TIMELINES
SYSTEMS MAPS
HORIZON SCANNING
bracket uncertainty:
TREND FORECASTS
IMPACT MAPPING
USED & DISOWNED FUTURES
FUTURES TRIANGLE
SCENARIOS
INFLECTION POINTS
From the From whole DECISION HORIZONS
Newtonian systems analysis to
clockwork to complex adaptive
Heisenberg’s systems and chaos
Uncertainty theory: beyond IMAGES of the FUTURE
Principle: order and SYSTEMS THINKING
SOCIAL CHANGE THEORIES
the loss of randomness to TRANS-DISCIPLINARY
predictability. emergence.
CRITICAL
TRANSFORMATIONAL
PARTICIPATORY
LONG-RANGE
13
28. Alternative possible futures...
Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system,
and thus impossible to predict;
Possible futures emerge from the turbulent
interplay of emerging change with our complex
evolving selves and societies.
29. Alternative possible futures...
Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -- system,
and thus impossible to predict;
Possible futures emerge from the turbulent
interplay of emerging change with our complex
evolving selves and societies.
possibility one
trends possibility two
innovations …etc.
revolutions, etc.
possibility three
30. Alternative possible futures...
A basic assumption of futures studies: not
one future, but many possible futures;
of those possible futures, some are more
probable than others -- evaluate changing
probabilities by monitoring trend growth;
of those possible futures, some are more
preferable than others -- evaluate
preferability by dialogue within community.
31. Foresight question & context
Demographics
Economy Lifestyles
Problem / question
Politics Organisation / community Art, play
Profession, field, market
Environment Technology
Science
32. TIMELINES
Foresight: SYSTEMS MAPS
4 Modes & 5 Key Activities
HORIZON SCANNING
TREND FORECASTS
IMPACT MAPPING
USED & DISOWNED FUTURES
FUTURES TRIANGLE
SCENARIOS
INFLECTION POINTS
DECISION HORIZONS
4 Thinking 5 Foresight Activities:
Modes: Identify and monitor change;
Logical Map and critique impacts;
Creative Imagine alternative outcomes; IMAGES of the FUTURE
SYSTEMS THINKING
Systemic Envision preferred futures; SOCIAL CHANGE THEORIES
TRANS-DISCIPLINARY
Intuitive Organise and act to create change. CRITICAL
TRANSFORMATIONAL
PARTICIPATORY
LONG-RANGE
17
33. Five Key Activities
of Integrated Foresight
Identify & Critique Imagine Envision Plan &
Monitor Change Change the Possible the Preferred Implement
Identify Examine Identify, Identify, Identify
patterns of primary, analyze, and analyze, stakeholders,
change: secondary, build and resources;
trends in tertiary alternative articulate clarify goals;
chosen impacts; images of images of design
variables, inequities in the future, preferred strategies;
changes in impacts; or futures, or organize
cycles, and differential ’scenarios.’ ’visions.’ action; create
emerging access, etc. change.
issues of
change.
Inte*grated* Foresight
34. Information sources
Information sources
Framework Forecasting
•• texts
texts Research
•• experts
experts
•• organizations Impacts
Impacts
organizations
•• periodicals
Baseline future
Baseline future Implications
periodicals Implications
•• websites Scanning
websites
S
Current conditions
Current conditions
•• social
social
T
A
K
Forces of change
Forces of change Response
Response
•• ongoing trends
•• technological
technological
E
H ongoing trends •• policy
policy
}
•• economic O •• potential events
potential events
economic
•• environmental
environmental
L
D
E
•• emerging issues
emerging issues •• plans
plans
•• new ideas
•• political
political R
S
new ideas •• actions
actions Courtesy
Uncertainty
Uncertainty Prof. Peter C. Bishop
History
History
•• previous eras
previous eras Leading
Leading
MS Program in Futures Studies
separated by events/
separated by events/ indicators
indicators
discontinuities
discontinuities University of Houston
•• the current “era” Impacts
Impacts
the current “era”
beginning with the Alternative futures
Alternative futures Implications
http://www.tech.uh.edu/futureweb
beginning with the
Effects Implications
most recent
most recent
discontinuities Information Dr. Peter Bishop, 2000
discontinuities Dr. Peter C. Bishop, Studies of the Future, UH-Clear Lake
A Futures Framework
35. Change: issue life-cycle.
Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an
emerging issue of change.
global; multiple dispersed cases;
trends and megatrends
WILDCARD!!
government
newspapers, institutions
number local; news magazines
of cases; few cases; layperson’s magazines,
degree emerging websites, documentaries
of issues specialists’
public journals and websites
awareness scientists; adapted from
artists; radicals; mystics Graham Molitor
TIME
36. Identifying Sources TIMELINES
SYSTEMS MAPS
HORIZON SCANNING
of Surprise: TREND FORECASTS
IMPACT MAPPING
USED & DISOWNED FUTURES
FUTURES TRIANGLE
SCENARIOS
Source acquisition: opinion leaders. INFLECTION POINTS
– Science, technology, innovation: sources in DECISION HORIZONS
which those communities themselves announce
news.
– Social and cultural change: sources expressing
values and ideas bubbling among artists, youth,
marginalised communities; often ‘fringe’
IMAGES of the FUTURE
publications or media. SYSTEMS THINKING
• Sources of surprise: SOCIAL CHANGE THEORIES
TRANS-DISCIPLINARY
– Look for challenges to scientific paradigms; CRITICAL
TRANSFORMATIONAL
– Look for challenges to the status quo. PARTICIPATORY
LONG-RANGE
21
37. Sources of Challenge
Government desire for Horizon scanning:
advanced warning. • Beginning of research, not end;
Political culture: need to • “N of 1”;
look responsible,
authoritative NOT • Unearths contradictions;
tentative; • Subjective, not objective;
Scientific culture: need to • “Unscientific” sources;
assemble credible,
objective, data-based • Systems-based;
arguments • Unfamiliar concepts.
22
38. Research vs. scanning…
Research criteria: • Scanning:
Credible; – Questionable credibility;
Documented; – Difficult to document;
Authoritative; – Fringe sources;
Statistically – Case studies --
statistically insignificant.
significant;
23
39. Research vs. scanning…
Research criteria: • Scanning:
Coherent: data agree; – Incoherent -- data
varies widely;
Consensus: experts
– Experts disagree or
agree; attack outright;
Theoretically – Demands new
grounded; theories;
Mono-disciplinary. – Multi-disciplinary.
24
40. TIMELINES
Analytic Depth
SYSTEMS MAPS
HORIZON SCANNING
TREND FORECASTS
IMPACT MAPPING
USED & DISOWNED FUTURES
FUTURES TRIANGLE
Integral Futures (Slaughter, 1999) SCENARIOS
INFLECTION POINTS
DECISION HORIZONS
Melds FS with Wilbur’s integral philosophy
Four quadrants: individual exterior world;
collective exterior; collective internal; and
individual internal
IMAGES of the FUTURE
Causal Layered Analysis (Inayatullah, various) SYSTEMS THINKING
SOCIAL CHANGE THEORIES
TRANS-DISCIPLINARY
Four layers: litany/events; systems/ CRITICAL
structures; values/worldviews; and myths/ TRANSFORMATIONAL
metaphors. PARTICIPATORY
LONG-RANGE
25
41. TIMELINES
SYSTEMS MAPS
CLA HORIZON SCANNING
TREND FORECASTS
IMPACT MAPPING
USED & DISOWNED FUTURES
FUTURES TRIANGLE
“Litany” SCENARIOS
INFLECTION POINTS
events, trends, problems, “word on the street,” DECISION HORIZONS
media spin, official positions.
“Causes”
structures, inter-relationships, systems,
technical and policy explanations
“Worldview” IMAGES of the FUTURE
culture, values, how language frames/constrains SYSTEMS THINKING
the issue SOCIAL CHANGE THEORIES
TRANS-DISCIPLINARY
“Myth/Metaphor” CRITICAL
Collective archetypes, emotional responses, TRANSFORMATIONAL
visual images PARTICIPATORY
LONG-RANGE
26
42. Integral Futures | Causal Layers
INTENTIONAL BEHAVIORAL
Subjective Objective
i
m
“WORLDVIEWS, n
e
t “LITANIES”
MENTAL MODELS” e
a
s
r Individual
u
p
r Collective
r
a
e
“MYTHS, t
b
l
“CAUSES,
METAPHORS” e
d
e SYSTEMS”
Inter-Subjective Inter-Objective
CULTURAL Interior Exterior SOCIAL
43. Integral Futures | Causal Layers
INTENTIONAL BEHAVIORAL
Subjective Objective
i
m
“WORLDVIEWS, n
e
t “LITANIES” Evidence
MENTAL MODELS” e
a
s -based
r Individual
u Policy
p
r Collective Comfort
r
a
e Zone
“MYTHS, t
b
l
“CAUSES,
METAPHORS” e
d
e SYSTEMS”
Inter-Subjective Inter-Objective
CULTURAL Interior Exterior SOCIAL
44. ‘Science’ vs. FR/S:
design differences
theory formation vs. • predictive vs.
futures articulation exploratory
reductionist vs. systemic • reproducible results
& holistic vs. insights
experimental vs. • one hard ’truth’ vs.
multiple soft
descriptive
’alternatives’
linear systems vs. complex • value-neutral vs.
& chaotic systems value-loaded
28
45. ‘Scientists’ vs. Futurists:
researchers’ roles
objective vs. subjective • Futures studies
observer vs. facilitator/ assumes that the point
participant of exploring multiple
possible outcomes is to
knowledge revealer vs. help people create the
change agent futures they desire:
active, value-focussed
reporting vs.
research.
performing
29
48. Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Infinite Futures:
foresight research and training
Oxford, England
http:// www.infinitefutures.com
Thank you.
Notes de l'éditeur
This presentation was prepared for the Social Research Association’s seminar on futures studies and social research, London, 7 July 2009.
Quoted from Patrick O’Brian’s The Wine-Dark Sea, p. 147, exchange between Stephen Maturin and his guide.
These two characters offer the thought to each other as a blessing, an expression encapsulating stability and thus safety, security. Yet stability is also stagnation, and new things -- while disrupting -- offer opportunities for further creativity, growth, transformation, even transcendence. How poor would London have been if no new things had arisen around Westminster and the city?
This slide emphasizes the point that the interrelationships between the linear and non-linear systems which compose reality generate uncertainty. Trends and their impacts are crashing into each other all the time. This creates turbulence and change, but also generates never before seen combinations of social impacts, of technologies, of ideas; the collision of trends generates bisociation or intersection: the perfect environment for creativity, for challenge AND opportunity.
The collision of trends creates new possibilities, opening the door for alternative future contexts for any product, service, or brand.
Assessing the probability that any given image of the future might actually occur must necessarily be an ongoing process: as trends and emerging issues of change grow, transform, plateau, or collapse over time, the probability of a possible outcome, or possible future, may vary. Hence the need for ongoing identification and monitoring of indicators of change.
Secondly, organizations must also continually evaluate alternative possible futures to identify those that offer conditions most conducive to meeting goals to achieve the organizational vision, or preferred future. Note, however, that evaluating a possible future as offering conditions to achieve a vision is NOT THE SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a vision of a preferred future.
Change arrives bumpily. Tipping points and discontinuities arise when changes converge and amplify each other’s impacts. Discontinuities then challenge working assumptions, worldviews, and deeply rooted value sets,
Futures studies as an academic field emerged as scholars around the world found themselves asking the same kinds of questions about the long-term future. The paradigms and methods used in the field reflect this diversity of input from other, older academic disciplines.
All living systems are non-linear. The dynamics of living systems, and the interrelationships between the linear and non-linear systems which compose reality, generate uncertainty. Trends of change and their impacts are continually colliding. This creates turbulence and change, but also generates never before seen combinations of social impacts, of technologies, of ideas; the collision of trends generates bisociation or intersection: the perfect environment for creativity.
The collision of trends creates new possibilities, opening the door for alternative future contexts for any product, service, or brand.
Assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process: as trends and emerging issues of change grow, transform, plateau, or collapse over time, the probability of a possible outcome, or possible future, may vary. Hence the need for ongoing identification and monitoring of indicators of change.
Secondly, organizations must also continually evaluate alternative possible futures to identify those that offer conditions most conducive to meeting goals to achieve the organizational vision, or preferred future. Note, however, that evaluating a possible future as offering conditions to achieve a vision is NOT THE SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a vision of a preferred future.
When we think about the future, it is often in relation to a specific issue, a question or plan or hope or worry that we have. That question, plan, hope, worry is mediated by -- informed, influenced, affected by -- the concerns and worldview of the organization in which we are involved: family, company, agency, non-profit, volunteer assocation, etc.
In turn, the worldview, issues, concerns, operational terms of any organization are influenced by the worldview and culture of the environment within which the organization operates.
What does that mean? If you are Exxon, you work within a culture distinct from that of, say, Shell, or BP; but you share the underlying concerns and concepts of the petroleum and energy markets. All of those cultures contribute to identifying and defining problems, like how we might manage future energy demand (in this instance, the inner, green circle).
In strategic planning, when you engage in “SWOT” analyses – strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, challenges – you are assessing both your organization’s internal environment (the middle, dark blue circle) and, usually, the organization’s immediate operating context (the third, pale blue circle).
It is the macro environment where the futurist offers help (the outermost white circle), by identifying emerging issues of change – so-called “weak signals” – and monitoring their escalation or subsidence, as well as the growth of established trends of change. The futurist’s systems perspective assumes the interrelationship of all the systems: change echoes back and forth among them all, and up and down through various subsystems, via information flows, behaviors (actions and reactions), and other forms of feedback.
Prof. Slaughter champions ‘integral futures’ -- I would argue that in addition we should practice integrated foresight. Too often people choose just one foresight activity as a stand-alone project: horizon scanning OR scenario building OR visioning. This creates weak and ineffective foresight projects.
If you are starting foresight for the first time, you must begin by sensitizing yourself to change, and identifying the change emerging around you; you can then consider and map out potential impacts of change; combinations of impacts create scenarios of alternative possible futures. Once you understand the expanded opportunities created by emerging change, you can articulate a truly creative, transformational vision of a preferred future, and plan strategies to achieve it.
While an applied futures project may be structured in a variety of ways, and its activities scheduled in different order, this basic conceptual framework for foresight and futures studies is depicted assuming that you are starting from a blank slate.
Today we are going to focus on the creative dynamic generated as we move from identifying change through critiquing its impacts to the imagination of alternative possible futures, and the creation of scenarios.
This classic diagram depicts the life cycle of a change, from emerging issue to full-blown trend, both in terms of number of observable cases, and in terms of public awareness.
Note that perceiving weak signals of change requires monitoring publications and activities on the far lower left end of the curve: specialist and fringe publications, blogs, conferences, media output. In epidemiological terms, we are looking for “patient zero.” A robust scanning strategy will monitor change all along this curve, and discriminate between the uses and usefulness of data emerging from different points of the curve. As a change matures, more and more data points are available with which to analyse it: we can speak of the change as a variable which is displaying a trend in some direction. When a change is just emerging, and only a few data points exist with which to characterise it, we can only analyse it via a case study approach.
Mark Justman’s set of on-line essays, “Emerging Issues Scanning Taxonomy | Getting a Handle on the Fringe,” speaks to the difficulties of researching down the curve, and offers some strategies for scanning practice. Available online at http://www.fortunecity.com/victorian/barchester/1341/emerging.htm.
How do we choose and document scan sources to ensure we spot weak signals of potentially disruptive or surprising change?
• In science and technology, we look for sources that those communities themselves use to announce news.
• For changes on the social and cultural fringe, we look for voices that express values and ideas bubbling among artists and youth (as an example).
Unfortunately, intuitive recognition of a source as useful is not a transferable decision rule. So, in the best tradition of expert systems analyses, we need to ask ourselves what we are actually doing when we choose sources. To which the shortest possible answer is probably, “identifying opinion leaders.” Because our current social construction grants credibility to adventuring within formal structures, such as science, we label those opinion leaders “experts.” As innovative social and cultural ideas and behaviors challenge the status quo with the potential for transformation, they are generally marginalized – hence the usual scanning label of “fringe” for sources on emerging issues among youth, artists, social movements, the underclass, etc. Also, bear in mind that dissenting scientific opinion – which can potentially lead to revolutionary shifts in scientific paradigm, a la Thomas Kuhn – is often treated harshly; scientific dissenters are often stigmatized as “cranks.” Their work also needs tracking, if cautiously.
The left-hand list specifies criteria used to establish the credibility of facts and patterns of present observations that are cited as evidence in policy formulation and decision-making. A cultural contradiction arises because useful environmental scan “hits” often register on the opposite end of the continua these criteria represent.
Any emerging issue unusual enough to be useful will probably lack apparent credibility;
it will be difficult to document, as only one or two cases of the change may yet exist;
it will emerge from marginalized populations, and be noticed initially by fringe sources;
as emerging issues are by definition only one or two cases, they are also by definition statistically insignificant; (continued on next slide…)
the data will vary widely, converging over time only if the emerging issue matures into a trend;
not only will consensus be lacking, but experts will often violently attack reports of emerging issues of change, as they represent challenges to current paradigms and structures of expertise, power, and entitlement;
emerging issues of change often challenge previous theoretical structures and necessitate the construction of new theories;
and the most interesting new change emerges where disciplines converge and clash. As the impacts ripple out across all the systems of reality, emerging changes and their impacts require a multi-disciplinary analytic perspective.
Scanning specifically – and foresight generally – can contribute to risk, threat, and vulnerability assessment as well as opportunity management, but will face resistance in an evidence-based policy environment for these reasons. Clearly articulated strategies to validate both scan sources and scan data can increase its acceptance.
Andy Hines has presented a useful overview of the work of Slaughter, Inayatullah, and Voros in his review of their articles and monographs in On the Horizon: Hines, Andy. “Integral futures: breadth plus depth equals foresight with insight.” Source: On The Horizon - The Strategic Planning Resource for Education Professionals, Volume 12, Number 3, 2004 , pp. 123-127(5). Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited
For articles on these approaches, see the following:
Slaughter, Richard. “A New Framework for Environmental Scanning,” Foresight, Vol. 1 No. 5, October 1999; available online as a monograph in the Reading Room at Integral World: go to http://www.integralworld.net/, click on “Reflection and Debate” in the left-hand navbar, then choose “Reading Room”. Click on “Slaughter” in the alphabetical list of authors to access three of Richard Slaughter’s essays on integral futures and applied foresight and scanning.
Inayatullah, Sohail. "Causal Layered Analysis: poststructuralism as method,” available online at http://www.metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm, or
… “Causal Layered Analysis: Unveiling and Transforming the Future,” in J.C. Glenn and T.J. Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology, version 2.0. Washington, D.C.: AC/UNU Millennium Project.
You can also order a book describing CLA and offering case studies: http://www.metafuture.org/Books/causal_layered_analysis_reader.htm.
A description of the methodology can be found at http://www.scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/cla.html
Voros, Joseph, ed. Reframing Environmental Scanning: A Reader on the Art of Scanning the Environment. Australian Foresight Institute Monograph Series 2003, No. 4. Available online at: http://www.swin.edu.au/afi/research/integral_futures.htm .
As I mentioned previously, these slides were produced in response to a request that I create a presentation introducing various futures tools and commenting on their weaknesses, for a post-graduate seminar on futures studies. The students participating were NOT graduate students in futures studies; they were graduate students from a variety of fields who wished to use futures research tools during their dissertation research projects.
The required reading for the seminar the day I was present included three chapters from the Handbook of Qualitative Research (second edition), Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln, eds., Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications, Inc., copyright 2000. Those chapters were: 1. ”Introduction: The Discipline and Practice of Qualitative Research” (Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln); 19. ”Grounded Theory: Objectivist and Constructivist Methods ” (Kathy Charmaz); 22. ”Participatory Action Research” (Stephen Kemmis and Robin McTaggart); and 29. ”Data Management and Analysis Methods” (Gery W. Ryan and H. Russell Bernard).
Reading those chapters, especially the first, was a bit like visiting an alien culture – or, more accurately, like a culture I had once known in the distant past, but from which I had become alienated by years living in a very different culture: applied futures research. It wasn’t until I read Kemmis and McTaggart on participatory action research that I thought, ”Aha! Of course, this is why I use futures tools in interacting with communities.”
This slide, and the next, represent my attempt to express the differences I perceive between much of traditional, positivist academic research, and the core concepts and approaches of applied futures research. QUALIFIER: in order to highlight those differences, I have exaggerated them and expressed them as polar opposites. I fully understand that in the real world, academic research is not wholly positivist, nor is futures studies as a field wholly lacking – or disinterested in – positivist research.
While futures researchers do engage in theory formation, an underlying goal of the field is the identification or articulation of images of the future. As the past, the present, and any possible futures consist of interlocking
[Continued on succeeding notes page…]
[continued from previous notes page…]
systems and their interrelationships, the field is necessarily systemic and holistic in perspective. Because of the difficulties of gathering data in the future, futures researchers tend to gather descriptive data about change in the present, and people’s attitudes towards it, and images of the future, rather than design experimental protocols.