Dr Stephen Hall, Director General of WorldFish, presents his keynote speech at the Seafood Summit 2012 in Hong Kong.

1. Evolving Solutions for
New Horizons
Hong Kong Seafood Summit (Sept, 2012)

2. Where are we heading?

3. Global consumption patterns

4. Aquaculture Production
120
120
Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)
Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)
Stagnant fisheries Pig
100
100 Stagnant fisheries
Production forecast (this study)
Production (million tonnes)
Production (million tonnes)
Production targets (national data)
• Global/consumption/rises/to/22.5/kg/y
80 • Global/consumption/rises/to/22.5/kg/y
80 Chicken • Global/consumption//remains/at
• Global/consumption//remains/at
1996/ levels/(15.6/kg/y)
1996/ levels/(15.6/kg/y)
60
60
Fish
Fish
Fish
40
40
•Technological/advances/in/aquaculture
•Technological/advances/in/aquaculture
20 •Baseline/scenario
•Baseline/scenario
20
•Ecological/collapse/of/fisheries
•Ecological/collapse/of/fisheries
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Year
Ye (1999)
IFPRI (2003) (1999)
Ye
FAO IFPRI (2003)
(2004)
FAO (2004)
Wijkstrom (2003)

5. Demand Drivers

6. Changes in developing country wealth
(1995 – 2005)
Source:
World
Bank
(2011)
The
changing
wealth
of
na<ons.

7. Growth in per capita wealth (1995 – 2005)
Source:
World
Bank
(2011)
The
changing
wealth
of
na<ons.

8. Urbanization
The new urban world Russia
The earth reaches a momentous Moscow
milestone: by next year, for the first time
in history, more than half its population
Norway
Sweden Finland
7.6
Estonia
Latvia
103.6 13.4
will be living in cities. Those 3.3 billion
people are expected to grow to 5 billion Canada
UK Lithuania
73% Shanghai
Belarus
54.0
Denmark
by 2030 — this unique map of the world
26.3 Ireland Netherlands 17.3
shows where those people live now
80%
13.3 Poland
90% 81% 23.9
Ukraine
Canton
62% 14.5
Belgium
10.2 Germany 30.9
London
US
97%
12.0 62.0 Czech
Republic Slovakia
7.4
68%
Mongolia
Beijing
12.7
75%
Moldova
China
France
246.2 Austria Hungary
Romania
11.6 Kazakh-
46.9 Istanbul
New York Slovenia 54% stan
N Korea
Urban population in millions 21.8
At the beginning of the 20th Switzer-
Croatia Serbia &
11.7
Tehran
8.6
century, the world's urban
77% land
Italy Mont Georgia
Uzbekistan 14.1
81%
population was only 220 Bulgaria Armenia
559.2
Bosnia Macedonia 12.1 62%
10.1
Japan
million, mainly in the west
39.6 Albania Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan 37%
LA Urban percentage 68%
Greece Turkey Tajikistan S Korea
17.9
Spain
51.1 Iran Afghan-
istan Urban population in millions 39.0 84.7
Portugal
33.6
48.4 7.8
66%
42%
68% 81%
77%
Cairo 68% Hong
Kong
15.9 Pakistan Urban percentage Seoul
Mexico
Lebanon Syria
Tunisia Iraq
23.2 Osaka
10.2
Cuba
Algeria Palestine 51%
20.3 59.3 Vietnam 16.6 Tokyo
84.392 8.5
Morocco 22.0 Libya Egypt Jordan
67%
Kuwait 36% 23.3 33.4
19.4 Israel
77%
Haiti Dominican Puerto
Republic Gambia 65% 33.1 27%
Jamaica Rico
Senegal 60% Burma
Guinea-Bissau Niger Saudi Arabia UAE Karachi
Sierra Leone
Mauritania Lagos 43% 20.9 14.8
Bhutan 16.5 Laos Cambodia
Mexico
Guate-
mala
Guinea 10.0
Chad
81% Oman
Nepal
32% Philippines Manila
Nigeria
Liberia Mali Burkina Eritrea
Bangladesh Thailand
City
Honduras Trinidad & Tobago
Ivory Sudan Ethiopia Yemen 21.5 55.0 15.4
India
El
22.1 Salvador
Nicaragua
Coast
8.6
Ghana
68.6 16.3 13.0 38.2 33% 64%
11.3 43% 16%
Venezuela 49% Somalia 26%
Costa Rica
26.0 50%
329.3
Uganda
Togo Kenya Malaysia
Panama
94% DR Congo 7.6 Dacca
20.2 Rwanda
By 2030, the towns and 18.1
Colombia Benin
CAR
cities of the developing
world will make up 80%
13.8 69%
33% Burundi
29%
Tanzania
34.3 Cameroon
9.5 Congo
Zambia
9.9
25%
of urban humanity
Singapore
Indonesia
73% Gabon Angola
Brazil 114.1
Ecuador Papua New Guinea
9.3 Malawi
8.7 Mozam- Mada- Mauritius Melanesia
Botswana bique gascar Bombay
Key 50%
Namibia
162.6
Zimbabwe
Peru 21.3
21.0
Sao Paulo
Predominantly urban 73% 20.4 S Africa Swaziland
85% 28.6 Sri Lanka E Timor
75% or over Lesotho
Delhi Jakarta
Bolivia
Rio de 60% 21.1 Calcutta 14.9 Australia
Predominantly urban Janeiro
50—74% Paraguay 15.5 18.3
Chile 12.2 89% New
Predominantly rural 14.6 Zealand
88% Urban growth, 2005—2010
25—49% urban Argentina Uruguay
35.6 3.2%
Predominantly rural Buenos 2.8%
3,307,950,000
0—24% urban 90% Aires 2.4%
13.5
Cities over 10 million people 1.7%
(greater urban area)
1.3% 1.3% 0.1% -0.4%
Latin America
Europe
Africa Arab States Asia & Caribbean Oceania North America Eastern Europe The world’s urban population — from a total of 6,615.9 million SOURCE: UNFPA GRAPHIC: PAUL SCRUTON
Source:
UNFPA

9. Fresh food consumption growth 2009 - 2014
Source:
www.euromonitor.com

10. Global consumption patterns

11. Growth in demand for fish (2007 – 2015)
Source:
Cai
(2011)
Preliminary
notes
on
forecas<ng
the
country’s
future
demand
for
fish.

12. Year
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fig. 1 Stunting trends from 1990 to 2020 by UN region (1 – 1 – 1, Africa; 3 – 3 – 3, Asia; B – B – B, Latin America & the
Year
Growth to 2020 by UN region (1 and need– 3 – 3, Asia; B – B – B, Latin America & the
in demand – 1 – 1, Africa; 3
Caribbean; , – , – ,, developing countries; 2 – 2 – 2, developed countries)
unting trends from 1990
n; , – , – ,, developing countries; 2 – 2 – 2, developed countries)
Stunting in children < 5 yrs
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of any
opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country,
territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimination of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lines
on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.
© WHO 2010. All rights reserved
Fig. 2 Latest country estimates of stunting in children aged 0–5 years (
The boundaries and names shown and the designationsno data; map,do not imply the expression of any
, used on this ,20 %; , 20–29?9 %; ,
30–39?9 %; , $40 %) opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country,
territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimination of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lines
Source:
Onis
et
al.,
(2010)
on maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.

13. Well-being and security
Source:
New
England
Complex
Systems
Ins<tute

14. Well-being and security

15. Well-being and security

16. Our challenges

17. Multiple and inter-related
Environmental
Capture Fisheries
Supply Impacts
Aquaculture
Technical
Consumption Patterns
Barriers
Overfishing
Demand Trade Patterns Food security
Demand Drivers
Predicting
Fleets Trends
Sector Structure and Dynamics Farms
Profitability Value Chains
Fisheries
Governance Fishery
Aquaculture Reform
Policy and
Regulation

18. Polarities everywhere

19. Polarities everywhere

20. New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price
formation!
Results:
1. At least for the price formation in Germany, there is no statistical
relation between increasing volumes of frozen pangasius fillets
and landing prices for cod.
2. Regarding landing prices of plaice a statistical relation with in-
creasing volumes of imported frozen pangasius fillets can be
stated.
Seminar on price formation and
marketing of fisheries and
aquaculture products
„New supply chains for seafood:
Implications for competition and price
formation“
10. December 2009, Brussels
22
Dr. Matthias Keller, AIPCE/CEP
1
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/news_and_events/events/price_seminar/keller_en.pdf

21. Marine and freshwater fisheries
11-­‐13
mT
10-­‐13
Mt
19-­‐20
Mt
Freshwater
fisheries
are
especially
important
for
many
of
those
that
need
fish.
Source: Mills et al (2010)

22. Large and small-scale fisheries
Small
Scale
fit
11-­‐13
mT
10-­‐13
M
sheries
are
19-­‐20
Mt
especially
important
for
many
of
those
that
need
fish.
Source: Mills et al (2010)

23. Demand and need
What fish farmers want to produce
… and what poor consumers want to eat

24. Are we joining the dots?

25. Are we joining the dots?
Fish supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia
and perspectives on the future role of aquaculture
MAIN MESSAGES:
Aquaculture is essential for Cambodia’s future fish supply.

26. the next 20 years to 19 million people which would likely inter-linked steps; i) future scenario development, ii) mod-
require substantial increased supplies of fish. elling projected fish demand and supply for 2030 using the
‘AsiaFish Model’ iii) aquaculture system characterization
The supply of ‘free’ wild fish is under threat from over- and, iv) analysis of aquaculture pathway and investment
Fish supply and demand scenarios for Cambodia
fishing, climate change, habitat modification and hydro
power development which could mean less fish supplied
options (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Schematic to show key steps, activities and outputs to determine future investment options for aqua-
culture in Lower Mekong Basin
SCENARIOS FOR FISH SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN high uncertainty were used to create scenario logic, the
2030 framework to develop four scenario narratives for fisheries

27. Cambodia scenarios to 2030
Good conservation Cornucopia
Winner Takes All and habitat
• No hydro power preservation • Little IUU
• High fishing • No hydro power
• Habitats preserved • Aq limited
Environment & Habitat
Empowerment of
Anarchy in fisheries Governance Policy & community fisheries,
& Law Compliance legal compliance
Aquaculture plus Following the rules
• Fisheries decline • Rice-fish fisheries
• Aquaculture investment enhanced
• Hydro power grows Degradation of fish • Hydro power grows
habitat
• Fisheries stable

28. Theory of change
A forward looking and
Multi-stakeholder
informed stakeholder
process
constituency
Improved policy Increased
A balance of
framework that aligns contribution
perspectives.
action. to food
security and
Structured engagement Coherent engagement
economic
with a clear objective with existing policy
and guidance. processes. development
An improved
Sustained effort - more
investment and risk
than ‘one-off’ inputs.
climate

29. o make this happen
A global equivalent?
dialogue needed by the fish sector, we propose to establish a partnership among several key international institutions to
esign a global multi-stakeholder process. Over the course of 18 months a combined top-down and bottom-up approach
e industry challenges ahead and use this as the foundation for a coherent and effective global policy framework, developed
rk of participating organizations including governments, industry players, research organizations, NGO’s and civil society.
low summarizes the proposed process, the objectives for each stage and how they combine to achieve the desired outcomes.
1 2 3 4 5
Global Regional Regional Regional Global
Workshop Workshops Workstreams Workshops Workshop
Policy
Relevance of
Global
Global Scenarios Innovation Global Policy
Scenarios Regional Policy
to Regions & Framework &
2030 & Policy Research Draft
Regional Initiatives
Gaps
Policy Gaps
Funding
To bring To broaden the To develop To consolidate To elaborate
stakeholders into stakeholder solution sets for and review a global policy
a constructive constituency key constraints to solution sets agenda and
problem solving engaged in achieving desired and develop identify initiatives
conversations dialogue. futures for the fish regionally to build on
To suspend power To validate and food system. contextualized progress.
relations and refine global policy solutions.
foster authentic perspectives.

30. Thank you