In this video, discover how to stay ahead of market trends and dynamics, particularly at a time of high uncertainty in food commodity markets. Explore a comprehensive view of the Mintec commodity prices covered, going beyond just reporting market events but also providing insights on what to look out for and prepare for the first half of 2021. Some of the key topics covered are: The weather has played a key role in global supply, particularly in those regions affected by droughts, floods and tropical storms. The La Nina weather pattern has caused droughts among Brazil's coffee heartlands, while also accelerating rainfall levels in Colombia. Speculation has been a key theme for the soft commodity markets, particularly in light of changing consumption patterns and supply gluts and/or shortages related to the global pandemic. Speculative forces are expected to remain a key driver going into 2021. This webinar will evaluate commodity markets that experienced significant price movements in the second half of 2020, including Arabica and cocoa, while highlighting key factors to look for over the next six months Despite the loss in foodservice demand, the food industry showed a relatively high level of resilience to the impact of COVID-19 disruptions, for the mere reason that food remains essential. Consequently, markets such as the fruit and vegetable market experienced a considerable spike in demand, as the health and wellness trend became more critical than ever. In this webinar, we will look into what's in store for the fruit and vegetable market category in 2021, amid other market drivers beyond COVID-19.

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M I N T E C G L O B A L . C O M
C o p y r i g h t © 2 0 2 1 M i n t e c L i m i t e d 1
H1 Global Food Commodity Review:
Market Update & Price Outlook
• January 2021

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Speakers
Jara Zicha
Senior Market Analyst
Jara is a Senior Market Analyst with over
ten years' experience analysing data and
providing market intelligence for nuts,
dried fruit and spice markets.
Jara is responsible for communicating
insights to Mintec's clients, to support
procurement decisions and works closely
with reputable media channels.
Tosin Jack
Commodity Intelligence Manager
Tosin has over twelve years experience in
analysing, interpreting and
communicating commodity and
agricultural market intelligence. She was
previously responsible for generating
insights across a range of markets food
and beverage markets.
She now leads the Mintec Intelligence
Team in analysing, evaluating and
forecasting the various price impacts of
specific events and drivers
Ramnikh Kular
Senior Market Analyst
Ramnikh is a Senior Market Analyst with
over eight years' experience working in
the energy and commodities sectors. At
Mintec, Ramnikh focuses on the fruit and
vegetables market.
He has a Bachelor's and Master's degree
in Economics, from Royal Holloway,
University of London.
Ibi Idoniboye
Senior Market Analyst
Ibi is a Senior Market Analyst, focused on
soft commodities and seafood markets.
He has over ten years' experience
analysing global commodities, with
expertise across the agribusiness
spectrum, including agricultural fertilisers.
Ibi has a BSc in economics from the
School of Oriental and African Studies,
University of London.

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01 03
02 04
Coffee Market Outlook
Orange Juice Market
Outlook
Soft Commodities
Fruit & Vegetables
Nuts and Dried Fruit Other core categories
Almond Market Outlook Grains, Oilseeds, Meat
and Dairy
Agenda - Market Updates & 6-Month Price Outlook

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Provides commodity price data
on over +14,000 price series
and history, along with
customisable dashboards, cost
models and market insight.
About Mintec

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C o p y r i g h t © 2 0 2 1 M i n t e c L i m i t e d
Soft Commodities Market
Coffee Price Outlook
Ibi Idoniboye
Senior Market Analyst

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• Strong rebound and rally during Q3 2020, driven by
firm coffee and cocoa prices
➢ Weather
➢ Low stocks
➢ USD weakens
• Price subside during September and October
➢ Geopolitics
➢ USD strengthening
➢ Weakening demand
➢ Stock recovery
• Late-Q4 rally
➢ Weather
➢ Geopolitics
➢ USD weakens
Market Update H2 2020
Source: Mintec Analytics
Soft Commodities Index
(Cocoa, Arabica, Robusta, Sugar)
80
85
90
95
100
105
1/1/20 1/4/20 1/7/20 1/10/20 1/1/21
Softs Price Index: January 2020 = 100

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• Price volatility
➢ Weather-impacts
➢ COVID-19
➢ Weak USD
➢ Certified stocks remain historically weak
• Robusta benchmark rallied through H2 2020
➢ Remains historically weak
➢ Vietnamese drought followed by wet harvest
➢ Brazilian output offsets Vietnamese losses
Market Update H2 2020
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1/1/17 1/7/17 1/1/18 1/7/18 1/1/19 1/7/19 1/1/20 1/7/20 1/1/21
USc/Ib
COFN – Coffee Arabica ICE NY
COFN - Coffee Arabica ICE NY Jul-Dec average Jan-Jun average
Source: Mintec Analytics
Benchmark Coffee Prices
1,140
1,340
1,540
1,740
1,940
2,140
2,340
1/1/17 1/7/17 1/1/18 1/7/18 1/1/19 1/7/19 1/1/20 1/7/20 1/1/21
USD/MT
COFL – Coffee Robusta ICE London
COFL - Coffee Robusta ICE London Jul-Dec average Jan-Jun average

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• Total global coffee output expected to increase by
418,920 tonnes 4.1% (y-o-y) to 10.5 million tonnes in
2020/21
• Weather-related supply issues
➢ Colombian Arabica – high harvest rainfall
➢ Honduran Arabica – hurricanes
➢ Vietnamese Robusta – drought
➢ Brazil’s 2021/22 Arabica – drought
• USDA forecasts global coffee demand to grow by 1.6%
y-o-y in 2021, Rabobank forecasts similar (less than 2%
y-o-y growth)
S&D Fundamentals
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Brazil Colombia Ethiopia Honduras
000
tonnes
Arabica Supply Estimates for Main
Producers
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20e 2020/21f
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Vietnam Brazil Indonesia Uganda
000
tonnes
Robusta Supply Estimates for Main
Producers
2017/18 2018/19 2019/20e 2020/21f
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
EU US Brazil Japan Philippines Russia
000
tonnes
Aggregate Coffee Demand in Main Consuming Markets
2018/19 2019/20e 2020/21f
Source: USDA
Coffee S&D Drivers

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Coffee Market Outlook
Source: Mintec Analytics
Source: Mintec Analytics
Main Bullish Drivers for H1 2021
• Speculation on tight supply
• Weaker USD
• Demand recovery to start beyond Q1 2021
Main Bearish Drivers for H1 2021
• Global stock replenishment
• Surging COVID-19 cases
H1 2021 Price Outlook
PRICE RANGE
Arabica 116 – 122 USc/Ib
Robusta 1,352 – 1,419 USD/MT
0-5%
/H1 2021 Price Outlook
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
1/1/18 1/7/18 1/1/19 1/7/19 1/1/20 1/7/20 1/1/21
USD/Ib
Forecast COFN - Coffee Arabica ICE NY Jan-Jun average Jul-Dec average
COFN - Coffee Arabica ICE NY
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
1/1/18 1/7/18 1/1/19 1/7/19 1/1/20 1/7/20 1/1/21
USD/MT
Forecast COFL - Coffee Robusta ICE London Jan-Jun average Jul-Dec average
COCN - Coffee Robusta ICE London

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C o p y r i g h t © 2 0 2 1 M i n t e c L i m i t e d
Nuts & Dried Fruit Market
Almond Price Outlook
Jara Zicha
Senior Market Analyst

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Coronavirus Impact Analysis – Maize
Source: Mintec Analytics
• Subdued market prices
• Decline in the foodservice and tourism
• Lower demand from the ‘snacking-on-the-go’ segment
• Strong retail sales
• Trade tensions
• Currency effects (USD, TRY)
• High shipping rates
Market Update H2 2020
Nuts Index
(Almonds, Hazelnuts, Peanuts, Walnuts, Cashews, Pecans, Brazil
Nuts)
85.0
87.0
89.0
91.0
93.0
95.0
97.0
99.0
101.0
103.0
105.0
1/1/20 1/4/20 1/7/20 1/10/20 1/1/21
Nuts Price Index: January 2020 = 100

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1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
1/1/17 1/7/17 1/1/18 1/7/18 1/1/19 1/7/19 1/1/20 1/7/20 1/1/21
USD/lb
NAL1 - MBP Almond std shel run fas US
Coronavirus Impact Analysis – Maize
Source: Mintec Analytics
• Prices bottom in August 2020 at a decade low of USD
1.75/lbs
• California anticipates record 2020/21 production at 3bn
pounds
• Market firms in September over bushfire concerns
• Shipments continue at record levels
Market Update H2 2020
NAL1 – MBP Almonds Standard Sheller Run FAS US
US Almond Price

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Supply & Demand Drivers
Source: Almond Board of California
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 E 2020/21 F
Million
Ibs
Californian Almond Production Californian Almond Shipments
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Million
Ibs
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

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Coronavirus Impact Analysis – Maize
Source: Mintec Analytics
• Ample global supplies
• Robust global demand
• Weak USD
• Slowing pace of new sales
• Upcoming bloom in February
H1 2021 Price Outlook
Almond Market Outlook
NAL1 – MBP Almonds Standard Sheller Run FAS US
3-8%
PRICE RANGE
1.90 – 1.99 USD/Ib
/H1 2021 Price Outlook
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
1/1/17 1/1/18 1/1/19 1/1/20 1/1/21
USD/lb
Forecast NAL1 - MBP Almond std shel run fas US Jul-Dec average Jan-Jun average

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C o p y r i g h t © 2 0 2 1 M i n t e c L i m i t e d
Fruit & Vegetables Market
Orange Juice Price Outlook
Ramnikh Kular
Senior Market Analyst

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• COVID-19 induced higher retail demand
• Tighter supply fundamentals – orange juice, onions
• Storage stocks - potatoes
• Higher production costs related to COVID-19
• Government intervention
• Brexit uncertainty
Market Update H2 2020
Source: Mintec Analytics
Fruit and Vegetables Index
(Orange Juice, Potatoes, Onions, Apples)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1/1/20 1/4/20 1/7/20 1/10/20 1/1/21
Fruit and Vegetables Price Index: January 2020 = 100

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• Tighter supply fundamentals
• COVID-19 induced higher retail demand
• Lower global production for the 2019/20 MY
• Brazilian production (2019/20 MY)
• US production (2019/20 MY)
• Lower food service sector demand
Market Update H2 2020
US Orange Juice Price
Source: Mintec Analytics
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
1/1/17 1/7/17 1/1/18 1/7/18 1/1/19 1/7/19 1/1/20 1/7/20 1/1/21
USD/Ib
ORJU - Orange Conc fzn ICE NY US
ORJU - Orange conc fzn ICE NY Jan-Jun average Jul-Dec average

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Orange Juice Market Outlook
Main drivers for H1 2021:
• Lower US production (2020/21 MY)
• Lower Brazilian production (2020/21 MY)
• Higher Mexican production (2020/21 MY)
• Uptick in demand from foodservice sector
• Lower storage stocks
H1 2021 Price Outlook
Source: Mintec Analytics
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
1/1/17 1/7/17 1/1/18 1/7/18 1/1/19 1/7/19 1/1/20 1/7/20 1/1/21
USD/Ib
ORJU - Orange conc fzn ICE NY US
Forecast ORJU - Orange conc fzn ICE NY Jan-Jun average Jul-Dec average
3-6%
PRICE RANGE
1.23– 1.26 USD/Ib
/H1 2021 Price Outlook

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C o p y r i g h t © 2 0 2 1 M i n t e c L i m i t e d
Key H1 2021 Price Drivers:
Grains, Oilseeds, Meat & Dairy Markets
Tosin Jack
Commodity Intelligence
Manager

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H1 2021 PRICE
OUTLOOK
COMMODITIES GROUP KEY BULLISH DRIVERS KEY BEARISH DRIVERS
Grains
(Wheat and Maize)
• La Nina (South American maize supply)
• Firm maize imports by China
• COVID-19 (lockdowns increasing home baking demand; vaccine
developments)
• COVID-19 (weak ethanol fuel demand)
• Russian wheat export quota
• Ample global grains supply forecast
Oilseeds and Oils
(Soyabean, Sunflower,
Rapeseed and Palm oil)
• La Nina (South American soyabean supply and global palm oil
supply)
• Firm demand and strong imports by China (soyabean, rapeseed)
• Tight sunflower seed supply (EU & Ukraine)
• India tariff cuts (high palm oil imports by India)
• COVID-19 vaccine developments
• COVID-19 (weaker biodiesel demand; weaker out-of-
home consumption)
• Price premiums weighing on Chinese sunflower oil
demand
Meat and Eggs
(Beef, Lamb, Pork and
Chicken)
• High poultry feed prices
• COVID-19 (high poultry demand; home baking egg demand;
vaccine developments)
• Avian Influenza (mass bird cullings, tighter supply)
• Lower import demand expected (China’s strong herd
rebuilding)
• COVID-19 (weak foodservice demand)
Dairy
• Firm import demand from China and the Middle East (butter,
cheese)
• High feed costs (high cost-driven butter and cheese prices)
• COVID-19 (high retail demand for milk and butter; vaccine
developments)
• La Nina (above average rainfall, firm NZ milk supply)
• COVID-19 (weak foodservice demand)
• High US cheese stocks
• Loss of government support measures – US cheese

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Key Takeaway
1. COVID-19 2. Extreme weather events
3. Currency
fluctuations

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