low cotton production 2015 and way forward
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- Heavy rains and floods in 2015 damaged over 260,000 acres of cotton crops in Punjab province and an unreported area in Sindh province, leading to Pakistan's cotton production dropping from 13.56 million bales in 2014-15 to 9.47 million bales in 2015-16. - The abnormal rains affected pollination, created ideal conditions for pest proliferation, limited input application, and damaged crop growth, causing farmers to lose interest in the crop given its lowered profits. - Pakistan was not the only country affected - India, China, the US, and Brazil also saw declines in cotton production from 2014-15 to 2015-16, suggesting climate change may be a global issue impacting cotton crops
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low cotton production 2015 and way forward
- 1. Dr. Khalid Abdullah Cotton Commissioner, Ministry of Textile Industry / Vice President, PCCC July, 2016
- 2. Targets 2015-16 Province Area (Mil. ha) Production (Mil. bales) Production (2014-15) 14.871 Mil. bales Punjab 2.428 10.500 Sindh 0.650 4.400 KP 0.0005 0.00152 Baluchistan 0.043 0.588 Pakistan 3.1215 15.48952 Source: 4th meeting of the Federal Committee on Cotton (FCC) Feb 19, 2015
- 3. Province Sector 2014-15 (Qty in MT) 2015-16 (Qty in MT) Requirement Availability Requirement Availability Punjab Public 696.87 843.64 Private 18336 24249 Total 31,000 19033 31,000 25093 %age of TSR 61.39% 81% Sindh Public 0.27 118.59 Private 1178 3177.8 Total 8,300 1178.3 8,300 3296.4 %age of TSR 14% 40% KPK Public 0 0 Private 34 0 Total 50 34 50 0 %age of TSR 68% 0% Balochistan Public 0 0 Private 358 0 Total 620 358 620 0 %age of TSR 57.74% 0% Pakistan Public 697.14 962.23 Private 19906 27427 Total 40,000 20603 40,000 28389 %age of TSR 51.50% 71% SEED AVAILABILITY Source: Federal Seed Certification & Registration Department, Islamabad
- 4. Sowing 2015-16 Source: Crop Reporting Service Department of respective provinces Province Target 2015 Area Sown % age Over 2015-16 2014-15 Target Last Year Punjab 2.428 2.258 2.322 93.00 - 2.70 Sindh 0.650 0.643 0.596 98.92 + 7.88 KPK 0.0035 0.001 0.00097 28.57 +3.09 Baluchistan 0.050 0.044 0.041 88.00 +7.31 Total 3.1315 2.946 2.960 94.08 - 0.47 (Million Hectares)
- 5. Cotton Production Pattern Year Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Pakistan 2010 7904 (floods) 3794 0.430 68.91 11698 2011 12132 2681 (heavy rains) 0.660 108.49 13595 2012 9600 (Rains) 3600 0.670 103.58 13300 2013 8860 (Rains) 3362 (Rains) 0.750 99.41 12336 2014 9900 (Rains) 3480 0.150 107.0 13488 2015 7400 (heavy rains) 3400 0.295 57.0 10859 2016* 9500 4500 0.300 98.0 14101 (000 bales) Production Range = 13 to 13.5 million bales Severe damage due to heavy rains/floods = 11.698 (2010), 10.859 (2015)
- 6. Major Reasons of Shortfall • Abnormalities in Weather – Heavy Rains / Floods – Harsh Temperatures • Low Cotton Prices (leading to shifting of cotton area to other crops) • Pests & Disease (especially PBW) • Seed quality
- 8. Rainfall (mm) in Punjab Province Source: SUPARCO, Islamabad Station June July August Total Rainfall (June-August) 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 Bahawalnagar 14.1 26.1 34.1 7.1 154 34.3 57 37 61 5.1 117 35.1 229 65.5 208.2 79.2 Bahawalpur city 106 0.1 56.1 6.2 134 18.2 3.3 4 86.1 4.1 31.7 69.3 326 22.4 91.1 79.5 Bahawalpur a/p 190 0.1 32 2.2 105 191 25.1 5 89.9 5 116 23.1 385 196.1 173.2 30.3 Bhakkar 35 10.1 86.4 26 34.7 123 22.1 78 121 79 44 66 191 212.1 152.5 170 Chakwal 112 34.6 39.2 13.8 87.4 215 193 79.1 133 141 108 158 333 390.2 340.4 251 D.G.khan 50.9 0.3 1.2 20.3 111 50.3 24.2 34.2 106 17.2 152 7.4 268 67.8 177.5 61.9 Faisalabad 27.5 3 75 5.1 96.5 50.2 3.2 88.1 129 15.2 159 19.3 253 68.4 237.4 112.5 Jhang 37.2 65 43.1 14 122 47.1 67 131 91.9 19 55 4 251 131.1 165.1 149 Jhelum 51.6 25.7 67.3 8.1 181 123 296 216 175 161 231 267 407 309.5 594.7 490.8 Khanpur 0.8 11 2 2.1 308 0.1 61 34 2.6 2 1.4 43 311 13.1 64.4 79.1 Lahore a/p 98.4 71.5 145 4.6 297 59.2 222 53.5 195 58.6 513 175 590 189.3 880.1 233.5 Lahore pbo 45.9 50.1 118 13.4 329 42.7 242 39.6 93.8 54.6 354 198 469 147.4 714.3 250.6 Mandi-Bahau-din 60.2 41.6 26.4 20.2 204 178 339 111 66.1 189 139 404 331 408.9 504.7 535.5 Mianwali 0 8.1 63.1 26.3 38 61.4 169 43.3 340 105 150 175 378 174.5 382.4 244.2 Multan 51.4 0.2 47 0 139 71.3 58 52 80.6 26.1 38 12.4 271 97.6 143 64.4 Okara 32.5 9 27.2 2.4 118 67.3 13.1 57 33.8 15 218 48 185 91.3 258.4 107.4 Rahim Yar Khan 3.5 0 0.1 0.1 118 0.2 16.1 20.1 0.2 2 0.5 19.3 122 2.2 16.7 39.5 Gujranwala cantt 62.2 35.2 60.2 19.4 196 122 315 157 63.4 144 468 239 322 301.4 843.5 415.1 Sahiwal 21.2 15.2 59.1 1.3 163 76.1 5.4 98.1 49 0.2 156 135 233 91.5 220.6 234.4 Sargodha 45.2 39 31 12.6 55.2 116 79.3 160 124 96 42.3 13.1 224 251.1 152.6 185.9 Shorkot 6 1.2 54 6.3 16.2 21.1 22 35.2 159 4 7.3 71.1 181 26.3 83.3 112.6 Sialkot cantt 42.9 87.4 17.2 8.5 299 262 314 254 118 185 670 192 460 534 1001.9 454.2 Sialkot a/p 35.7 47.3 69.3 50.3 147 182 284 157 111 188 368 259 294 417.9 721.4 467 T.T.Singh 40.9 19 74.4 5.5 88.2 61.4 8.2 147 115 28.2 23.4 20.2 244 108.6 106 172.7 Average Rainfall (mm) 358 233.2 414.14 249.4 PRODUCTION (000 bales) 7400 9900 8860 9600
- 9. Rainfall (mm) in Sindh Province Source: SUPARCO, Islamabad Station June July August Total Rainfall (June-August) 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 Badin 1.3 0 17 0 207 3.4 9.1 0.1 0.2 32.2 70.2 31.1 209 35.6 96.3 31.2 495 Chhor 19 0 49 1 131 0.1 19.1 23 8 10 127 29.1 158 10.1 195.1 53.1 367 Hyderabad 8.2 0 0 0 101 16 1.1 0 0 1 27 1.1 109 17 28.1 1.1 215 Jacobabad 11 0 52.1 0 55.1 0 0.1 3.1 0 4 295 0.1 66.1 4 347.2 3.2 144 Karachi 0 0.2 0.3 1 47.1 1.7 6.6 1 1.9 9.2 107 8.3 49 11.1 113.5 10.3 140 Larkana 6.1 0 6 0 17.7 0 0.1 0 0.1 4 91 0.3 23.9 4 97.1 0.3 125 Mithi 23 0 40 28 389 33 30 10 1 107 20 25 413 140 90 63 878 Shaheed Benazirabad 37.2 0 19 0 69 0 7.2 0 0 11.2 15 14.1 106 11.2 41.2 14.1 497 Padidan 36.6 0 96.1 0 104 0.2 14.1 0 0 0 37.1 0.1 141 0.2 147.3 0.1 367 Rohri 7.2 0 29 0 63.2 0 10 0 0 3.1 85.1 0.1 70.4 3.1 124.1 0.1 97 Sukkur 50 0 28 0 105 0 4 0 0 8 60.1 2 155 8 92.1 2 93 Mohen-jo-Daro 12.5 0 36.1 0 61 0 0.1 0 0 0 66 4 73.5 0 102.2 4 99 Thatta 4.7 0 0 0 93 7 5 0 0 10 104 34 97.7 17 109 34 145 Dadu 55 0 18 7 111 0 12 0 0 0 9 0 166 0 39 7 195 Mirpurkhas 2 0 4 0 80.1 5 24 0 0 9 52 20 82.1 14 80 20 392 Average Rainfall (mm) 128 18.35 113.48 16.23 284 PRODUCTION (000 bales) 3400 3488 3362 3600 2681
- 11. Rain Damages 2015 Courtesy: SUPARCO, Islamabad
- 12. Rain Damages 2015 Courtesy: SUPARCO, Islamabad
- 13. Comparison of Number of Rainy days in Core Cotton Areas Source: Director General, AARI, Faisalabad) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 July August September October 2014 2015 MULTAN 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 July August September October 2014 2015 RAHIM YAR KHAN
- 14. Rainfall Vs Cotton Production in Punjab Province 11417 6523 7103 6817 11147 7904 9900 7400 115.6 567.8 234 609.8 255.2 412 149 373 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1991-92 1993-94 1996-97 1997-98 2004-05 2010-11 2014-15 2015-16 Production (000 bales) Rain (mm)
- 15. Abnormalities in Weather Cotton Area damaged due to Floods / Rains (acres) Source: Agriculture Departments of the Respective Provinces Province Punjab Sindh 2010 860,356 487,125 2011 59,050 11,66,466 2012 142,547 92435 +62857 partially damaged 2013 246,110 5-10% Katcha area 2014 211,677 N.A. 2015 260,037 N.A.
- 16. Impact of Rains on Cotton Crop • Continuous rains affected pollination (100mm to 373mm). • 128 mm for 28 days during 3rd week of July upto 3rd week of August 2015 as compared to only 13 mm during same period last year. • Heavy rains resulted in high humidity which favored flare up of Whitefly, Jassid and other pests. • Resulted in limited application of inputs, growth of crop deteriorated and pest complex established. • Damages due to rains coupled with prevailing lower cotton prices & high rates of inputs, farmers lost interest in spending more on already damaged crop.
- 17. Has climate change only affected the Pakistani cotton??
- 18. Cotton Production in million bales 2014-15 2015-16 India 38.28 36.18 China 38.12 30.41 USA 20.90 16.59 Pakistan 13.56 9.47 Brazil 9.12 5.06 Uzbekistan 5.21 5.06 world 153.71 132.12
- 19. National Seminar “Resilient Cotton Production under Changing Climate Phenomenon” (Nov 4, 2015)
- 20. Irrigation Water Requirement for Cotton Vs Rain Forecast in Next 10 Years 0 10 20 30 40 50 April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Water Requirement Rain Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad mm
- 21. Decreasing Plant Population Source: Crop Reporting Service Department, Punjab Recommended Plant Population (Production Plan 2013 – Punjab) Early (March) (12 to 15 inch) 14 - 17.5 Thousands Mid (April) (9 to 12 inch) 17.5 - 23 Thousands Late (1st to 15 May) (6 to 9 inch) 23 - 35 Thousands PlantPopulation/acre 16680 15405 14024 14396 13174 13439 13864 12111 12388 16595 15162 14138 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (est) Average
- 22. Cotton Insect Pests & Diseases Situation
- 24. Armyworm 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT %HOTSPOTS 2014 2015 Source: Pest Warning & Quality Control of Pesticides, Punjab
- 25. Pink Bollworm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT %HOTSPOTS 2014 2015 Source: Pest Warning & Quality Control of Pesticides, Punjab
- 26. Damaged Bolls
- 27. District-wise Pink Bollworm 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 %HOTSPOTS Source: Pest Warning & Quality Control of Pesticides, Punjab
- 28. Future Management Plan For Pink Bollworm 1. National Seminar 2. Technical Workshop i) Engaging Entomologists to develop Long & Short management strategies for PBW 3. Training sessions with PCCC’s scientists & Extension staff 4. Farmer’s awareness campaign at different locations at Punjab & Sindh provinces
- 29. Farmers Training Programs Pink bollworm Management by the PCCC
- 30. National Seminar on PBW Management
- 31. Cotton Price Trend 2015 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 11.05.2015 18.05.2015 22.05.2015 01.06.2015 05.06.2015 11.06.2015 18.06.2015 24.06.2015 02.07.2015 08.07.2015 14.07.2015 24.07.2015 30.07.2015 05.08.2015 12.08.2015 19.08.2015 26.08.2015 03.09.2015 10.09.2015 16.09.2015 28.09.2015 02.10.2015 08.10.2015 14.10.2015 23.10.2015 02.11.2015 06.11.2015 13.11.2015 19.11.2015 25.11.2015 02.12.2015 10.12.2015 17.12.2015 29.12.2015 Cotlook A Index Indian Cotton Index Karachi Cotton Association
- 34. Targets 2016 Area (Mil. Hectares) Production (Mil. Bales) Punjab 2.310 9.500 Sindh 0.650 4.500 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.001 0.003 Balochistan 0.038 0.098 PAKISTAN 2.999 14.101
- 35. Weather Forecasts • Pakistan Met Department (PMD) predicts slightly (20-25%) above normal rainfall • 1°C rise in temperature (March-May) • The warmer temperatures and rainfall will enhance the melting of snow and ice, which will improve the water availability for crops. • However, IRSA predicts 5% shortfall in irrigation water availability • Weather Alerts by PMD at toll free number / farmers helpline (051-111-638638, 051-9250364) to inquire about district wise 5-days weather forecasts
- 36. Seed Availability • FSC&RD stated that upto 23rd February, 14048 metric tons (Punjab = 11728 tons, Sindh = 2320 tons) of seed were tested and certified and by the 2nd week of March, around 25,000 metric tons (60% of total requirement) of certified seed would be available. • Companies involved in fake seed business will be de-registered • PCCC will partner FSC&RD in developing Seed Technology and provision of quality cotton seed to the farmers.
- 37. Inputs Availability • Agriculture Credit Target of Rs.600 billion, ZTBL disburse Rs.15 billion for cotton farmers. • Initiation of Cotton Crop Insurance policy by the banks. • 10% higher pests-specific pesticide availability • Satisfactory availability of Fertilizer
- 38. Research Programs • “Cotton Biotechnology Centers” under China-Pak Economic Corridor Agreements (CPEC). PCCC has proposed two centers i.e., one at CCRI Multan CCRI Sakrand. • MoU with M/s BioCentury Pvt Ltd for development of varieties resistant to cotton pests especially Pink bollworm. • Pak-US Cotton Productivity Enhancement Project for development of CLCuV Resistant Varieties • Maintained 5765 germplasm species of cotton. Storage capacity of seed for more than 25 years at CCRI Multan. • Development of long and extra long staple cotton varieties in the coastal belt of Sindh and Balochistan provinces.
- 39. Varieties under Pipeline Variety Lint %age Staple length (mm) Micronaire (µg inch-1) Strength (tppsi) Bt. CIM-600 40.0 28.6 4.6 96.8 Bt.Cyto-177 40.3 28.6 4.4 92.4 Cyto-124 42.7 30.5 4.3 98.6 Bt.CIM-616 40.5 28.5 4.7 100.7 Bt.CIM-622 40.2 28.5 4.5 93.8 Bt.CIM-623 40.3 28.2 4.3 104.6 Bt.Cyto-178 39.4 28.7 4.7 103.6 Bt.Cyto-179 41.4 28.2 4.7 105.2 CIM-610 41.0 28.2 4.6 101.7 CIM-618 40.5 29.0 4.2 93.7 CIM-620 40.4 29.1 4.6 93.3
- 41. Colored Cotton
- 42. Cotton Promotional & Development Programs • Establishment of Cotton Research Station at Lasbella • Strengthen Cotton Research Stations of D.I. Khan (Khyber Pakthunkhwa) and Cotton Research Station, Sibbi (Balochistan). • Laying out Demonstration plots and participate in Agriculture Exhibitions organized by District & Provincial Governments. • Weather Alerts through print and electronic media for the guidance of farmers. • PCCC will partner FSC&RD along with seed companies for provision of quality seed to the farmers. • Use of print and electronic media for advocacy and awareness campaign for farmers in effective cotton crop management. • Participate in training programs by the Agriculture Extension Department of the Punjab
- 44. Capacity Building • MoU with Muhammad Nawaz Sharif University of Agriculture, Multan for initiating Student Internship Programs, Degree Awarding Programs and Collaborating Cotton Research Programs. • Short and long term training programs for scientists in advanced technologies. • Fill essential vacant posts lying at various research institutes/stations.
- 45. 75th ICAC Plenary Meeting (Oct 30 ~ Nov 4, 2016)
- 46. Fortnightly Meetings of CCMG
- 47. Media Campaign
- 48. SMS Services • PCCC initiating SMS alerts for cotton growers throughout the country. • At least 4 weekly messages will be sent to cotton growers.
- 49. Other • Cotton Import through Wahga boarder • Pink boll worm monitoring program • Growers Awareness programs
- 50. Intervention Price • Request from Minister for Agriculture Punjab to PM for procurement of 2 million bales (05-05-2016) • API has determined Rs. 3000/ 40kg of phutti • Summery moved for comment to NFSR, MoF and MoC (10-06-2016)