When those who are given the mandate to govern, make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose.

1. Pakistan
A Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential among Emerging Markets
A presentation by Zahid Hussain Khalid for
ICMR 2013 International Conference on Growth in Emerging Markets
November 21-22, 2013

2. The Paper and the Presentations on Emerging Markets…
ICMR 2011: Emerging Market’s Future – Theoretical Perceptions and Ground Realities
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/emerging-markets-future
ICMR 2012: Emerging Markets – Outline of an original plan : Re-invention of education system for national and global good governance, social and
economic development
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/re-invention-of-education-systenpdf-presentation
ICMR 2013: Growth in Emerging Markets – Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets
http://slideshare.net/19540201/pakistan-a-leaderless-leader-in-economic-growth-potential-among-emerging-markets-paper

3. Slide Sequence
INTRODUCTION: Questioning Pakistan’s Economic Growth
Potential
Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic
Growth Map
Pakistan’s Real Economic Growth Potential
•
•
•
Global Perspective
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Share of CP Market Growth by Region
Timeline for takeover by China and India as Global Economic Leaders
Code of Professional Proficiency and Ten Future Work Skills
Six Drivers of Change
Seven Key Challenges and Actions
Global State of Talent projected to 2030
The Value Chain of Talent
Importance of Equitable Access and Good Quality Education to Private
Sector
A Major Concern: Employability
A much ignored irony of the Education System
Analyzing Potential Return to the Private Sector from Investment in
Education
Contextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Level s
and Evaluation
•
•
•
Four Cycles of Preparedness
Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Context
Three Levels of Capacity
How is Pakistan looked at? Country’s National Image
Causes and Consequences of the Negative National Image
Nine Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance
Three Immediate Challenges
•
•
The First Step: Put the House in Order
From Where to Begin: Reposition Pakistan
Five Territories on the National Activity Map
Why Five Territories on the National Activity Map
•
•
•
•
•
Social
Political
Economic
Diplomatic
Military
National Activity Plan from Civil Society’s Perspective
•
•
•
•
•
Social Activity: Action
Political Activity: Action
Economic Activity: Action
Diplomatic Activity: Action
Military Activity: Action
CONCLUSION

4. Introduction
Questioning Pakistan’s Economic Growth Potential

5. 25 Rapid Growth Markets
Pakistan is NOT among them! Does it mean that Pakistan Can’t be one of them?
SOURCE: “Growing Beyond: Rapid growth market, Winter Edition - January 2013,” Earnst & Young

6. Ten years of massive growth in Asian international
expansion
Pakistan is NOT among these too, because she is engaged on war fronts!
Asian companies have invested more than US$2.9 trillion in regional and global expansion in the last 10 year. Even 1% of that investment comes
to US$29 billion, instead Pakistan has spent more than US$100 billion on WAT with more than 75% negative return on investment.
SOURCE: “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” Accenture

7. All is not well! Rapid Growth Market Forecast 2013
HIGHEST RISK
Turkey, Argentina, India, Egypt,
Vietnam, Ghana, Indonesia and
South Africa
MEDIUM RISK
Poland, Brazil, Czech Republic, Colombia,
Chile, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia.
LOWEST RISK
Thailand, Russia, Korea, Nigeria,
China, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar
Here also Pakistan is NOT entitled to any color code because it has the potential to perform better than all of them! Yes, she can!
SOURCE: Earnst & Young Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast – October 2013

8. Sharp increase in optimism on the growth prospects
6 Renewing focus on
sales and marketing is
now the top strategic
focus overtaking
expansion to new
markets
1 Strengthened
confidence in company
performance
5
Attracting and
retaining qualified
employees continues to
be the top internal
concerns
4 Consumer demand
remains on top of the
list of external concerns
2
Sanguinity about
some company-level
risks
KEY FINDINGS
OF THE
BUSINESS
OUTLOOK
SURVEY
3 Willingness to invest
more on sales,
marketing and R&D
First Quarter 2013
Can Pakistan’s Corporate Leaders also endorse this optimism as theirs too? Yes, they can ONLY if they keep the country in mind
instead of petty personal interests and build national corporate assets instead of family business empires.
SOURCE: CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013

9. Heightened optimism in country of operation and at
company levels across Asia
Optimism at country of operation level
Optimism at company level
Do Pakistan’s people, their government and corporate leaders have any reason to be optimist? They don’t. But they have every reason to be optimist?
SOURCE: CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013

10. Pakistan’s Real Economic Growth Potential

11. More than one reason to be optimist…
What this slide reflects are Pakistan’s geographic advantage, demographic strength, highest regional GDP in Asia, and military restraint. Why
the question mark after the photographs of the top leaders? You can very well guess the answer because that is the title of this presentation.
So, what did Pakistan miss on the global front and why?

12. Global Perspective
Share of CP Market Growth by Region
Timeline of Takeover by China and India as Global Economic Leaders
Code of Professional Proficiency and Ten Future Work Skills
Six Drivers of Change
Seven Key Corporate Challenges and Actions
Global State of Talent Projected to 2030
The Value Chain of Talent
Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality Education to Private Sector
A Major Concern: Employability
The Much Ignored Irony of the System of Education
Analyzing Potential Returns to the Private Sector from Investment in Education

13. Share of world CP market growth, 2012 to 2017, by
region
“Between 2012 and 2017, the share of world CP market growth coming from emerging Asia will rise from 29% to 38%.” Pakistan has
the potential to contribute more than any other country in the region by drawing natural and human resource maps and seriously
working on them to make them appear on the world economic map.
SOURCE: EY analysis from Euromonitor data, June 2013., Brand New Order – “Profit or lose Balancing the growth-profit paradox for global consumer products companies and retailers in Asia’s emerging markets,” Earnst & Young, 2013

14. Timeline of takeover by China and India as global
economic leaders
China is moving ahead cautiously, India’s claim to third position in global economic leadership is doubted, though not impossible yet, and
Pakistan is striving for an “externally borrowed” breathing space. Will Pakistan be able to even join the race? Yes, Pakistan can by relying
on its own natural and human resources governed and managed by responsible political and corporate leaders.

15. Six Drivers of Change
1: Extreme Longevity
Increasing global life-spans change the nature of careers and learning
2: Rise of smart machines and systems
Workplace automation nudges human workers out of rote, repetitive tasks
3: Computational world
Massive increases in the sensors and processing power make the world a programmable system
4: New Media Ecology
New communication tools require new media literacies beyond text
5: Super-structured organizations
Social technologies drive new forms of production and value creation
6: Globally connected world
Increased global interconnectivity puts diversity and adaptability at the center of organizational
structures
70% young Pakistanis have to grow up; familiarize with smart machines and systems; connect with computational world; try to know the
architects and understand the reach and impact of new media ecology, found or become part of super-structured organizations and
prepare to become active citizens of globally connected world.
SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011

16. Code of professional proficiency in future
Proficiency depends on observation, probe, understanding, experimenting, concluding, testing, succeeding, packaging,
communicating, networking and collaborating.
SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011

17. Key Corporate Challenges and Actions
KEY
CHALLENGES
Decision-making processes and
authority are over-concentrated in
global headquarters
ACTIONS
Mentoring and coaching programs
focused on global leadership
Overseas offices' lack of respect for
the leadership authority of
headquarters
Personality and leadership
assessment for global leadership
Lack of clear structure in top
leadership roles and processes
Cultural sensitivity training
Leadership across functions and
geographies lacking alignment on
the common goals of the global
organization
Regular global videoconferencing or
other advanced communications
Governance structures are not
clearly understood by staff outside
of the home country
connecting talent across the global
company into teams or workshops
Lack of ability to hold overseas
offices accountable for not
complying with processes and
procedures
360-degree feedback for global
leadership team members
Weak cross-border collaboration
Offering international assignments
and global rotation programs
Pakistanis are capable of accepting the challenges and always found ready to come into action whenever they were assigned
the task to do so in the interest of their country. But, instead of country benefitting from their actions the rewards ended up
in foreign bank accounts of corrupt political leaders, criminal corporate mafias, bureaucrats and army generals.
PEOPLE WANT CHANGE! TO BEGIN WITH FOCUS ON COUNTRY’S HIGHLY TALENTED YOUTH…
SOURCE: “Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies,” Accenture

18. The present global state of talent with the right skills,
Projected to 2030
The greater availability and demand of talent in Pakistan underlines the need for the development of Pakistan’s Human Resource Development
Maps for educating and preparing them for national and global competencies.
SOURCE: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2006), 155./ “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center
for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013

19. The Value Chain of Talent
The Value Chain of Talent demands planning for a citizen’s “Seven Stages of Life” from early childhood to either entrepreneurship or employment and a
post-retirement concern-free life.
SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013

20. The Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality
Education to the Private Sector
PROBLEM: “Despite increasing demand for talent and rising pool of available workers, ‘employability’ will appear as a major concern.”
SOLUTION:
“Enhance size and quality of talent pool
Reduce talent acquisition and retention cost
Reduce learning and development costs.”
SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013

21. The ignored irony of the system of education
MONTHLY HHOUSEHOLD BUDGET ALLOCATIONS ON EDUCATION
“I CANNOTAFFORD EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES WHERE I LIVE.”
The present system of education across the globe is evidently producing classes of different levels of employees who rarely move from lower managerial level to
higher managerial level and this will be noticed not in the distant but the near future.
The most aspect of this ironic situation is the need for understanding the seriousness of the psychological and social dimensions of this issue before it’s too late.
SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013
SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013

22. Analyzing Potential Returns to the Private Sector from
Investment in Education
Does this yardstick to measure “profitability of investment in education: concepts and methods,” have a module to evaluate the return on
investment to Pakistan or to that matter any other country?
Note: This approach employs the “full discounting method” referred to by as opposed to the Mincerian earnings function commonly used by labor economists. “The Profitability Of Investment In Education: Concepts and Methods.”
SOURCE: “Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business,” Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013

23. Contextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Level
and Evaluation
Four Cycles of Preparedness
Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Context
Three Levels of Capacity

24. Framework for institutional performance evaluations
Do our systems of governance and education meet any of the criteria such as motivation, environment, capacity and performance?
SOURCE: Universalia 1985; IDRC 1991; Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011.

25. Process Custodianship and Governance in Different
Contexts
Does the government of Pakistan have an Integrated “Contextual National Agenda,” and a “Set of Natural and Human Resource Maps?”
SOURCE: Mohammad A. Jaljouli, “Evaluation Systems as Strategy Management Tools: Building Dubai’s Institutional Learning Capacity,” - “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011.

26. The Three Levels of Capacity
Does the existing system of overall national, provincial and district level political and corporate governance reflect any
one of the three levels of capacity except the capacity of individuals to the extent of their personal interest and benefit?
NOW, LET US POSITION PAKISTAN ON THE WORLD ECONOMIC MAP OF RAPID-GROWTH ECONOMIES…
SOURCE: Caroline Heider, A Conceptual Framework for Developing Evaluation Capacities: Building on Good Practice, “Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance,” The World Bank 2011.

27. Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Map
How is Pakistan Looked At?
Pakistan’s National Image
Causes and Consequences of the Negative National Image
Who is Responsible: Nine Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance
Three Immediate Challenges
The First Step: Put the House in Order
From Where to Begin? …Reposition Pakistan

28. Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Map
How is Pakistan looked at?

29. How is Pakistan looked at?
Crime Mafias
and Terrorist
Groups
Lack of
National
Consensus
Communication
Lock
National Image

30. What are the causes and the consequences?
ILLITERACY
AND
IGNORANCE
SECTARIANISM
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
TERRORISM
RELIGIOUS, ETHNIC
AND
POLITICAL
PREJUDICES
INJUSTICE AND
VIOLATION OF
HUMAN RIGHTS
With no plan in hand
and no funds available
to break this
Cycle of Nine Social
and Economic Evils
POVERTY
DEPRIVATION
CRIME
AND
CORRUPTION
PSYCHOLOGICAL
STRESS
What you see here is an Unbreakable Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils

31. Who is responsible?
CARELESS RULERS
PERPETUAL STATE
OF UNCERTAINTY
ECONOMIC
STRANGULATION
AND SOVEREIGNTY
IN DOUBT
EXTERNAL
RELIANCE FOR
BUDGET TARGETS
SELF-SERVING
PUBLIC SERVANTS
The Dilemma of the
world’s most
powerful human and
natural resource rich
country of the
Muslim world
INEFFECTIVE DEBT
MANAGEMENT
SOCIALLY
IRRESPONSIBLE
CORPORATE
CONGLOMERATES
PARALYZED LAW
ENFORCING
AGENCIES
INCOMPETENT
MONETARY AND
FISCAL MANAGERS
Nine Ignored and Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance by the voters in Pakistan

32. Three Immediate Challenges
The First Step: Put the House in Order
From Where to Begin Reposition Pakistan

33. Three immediate challenges
Dis-configured System of Governance
Lack of Consensus and
The Way Out

34. The first step: put the house in order
STATE OF
NATIONAL
EMERGENCY
PREPAREDNESS
Political

35. From where to begin? Reposition Pakistan
An integrated district, provincial and federal Governance Plan based on a set of natural and human resource maps in line with country’s
tangible and intangible elements of national power and Strategic National Economic Vision and its alignment with the demands of
Globalization for safeguarding national interest and benefitting from resulting gains of keeping pace with Global Economic Growth.

36. Five Territories on the National Activity Map
Social Territory
Political Territory
Economic Territory
Diplomatic Territory
Military Territory

37. Five territories on the National Activity Map
Geographic
Military
Location
Military
Demographic
Strength
Mix
CIVIL
SOCIETY?
Political
Economic
Leadership
Growth
STATE OF
NATIONAL
EMERGENCY
PREPAREDNESS

38. Social territory on the national activity map…
Social territory is a nucleus around which the other four territories on the national
activity map revolve. A family, therefore, is a focal point with reference to social and
civil rights and responsibilities. In order to understand its role in national politics
national planning needs to focus on an individuals seven stages of life.
Each transition of an individual’s life from one stage to the other till his death reflects a
change in his role, his rights and his responsibilities as member of his family, society and
the state.

39. Political territory on the national activity map…
PARTY
MANIFESTO
PRESSURES OF
GLOBALIZATION
HOW TO
REMAIN
FOCUSED?
EXPECTATIONS OF
VOTERS
COALITION CONCERNS
AND DAY-TO-DAY
DEMANDS AND
PRESSURES
Politics has become subservient to an “adjustable” party agenda on “day-to-day basis” instead of “manifesto focused” governance to
represent the voters in democratic as well as non-democratic political systems across the globe.
It appears that heads of different pillars of the state in Pakistan have decided neither to play nor let the others play. Interestingly, all the
parties neither playing nor letting others play have nothing personal at stake. Their future is secured socially, politically and economically.
They are not bothered about the future of the country or its more than 180 million unfortunate people.

40. Economic territory on the national activity map…
EASE OF DOING
BUSINESS
NO OR NOMINAL
TAX REGIMES
CAPITAL
FLIGHT
AVAILABILITY OF
CHEAP LABOR
NO OR MINIMUM
REGULATORY
INTERVENTION
Pakistan is one of the top listed emerging market’s economies with higher Regional GDP than the most preferred emerging economies in
different continents of the world ( http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/potential-of-investment-in-pakistan-12752206 ).
Why Pakistan has failed to take any small or significant advantage of its globally acknowledged pro-investment inflow position on Global
Investment Flows Map of the World? The answer is carefully engineered disconfiguration of Pakistan’s elements of national power with
the connivance of the pawns of enemies of Pakistan placed at different management levels in almost every pillar of the state. These
allegedly known and unknown pawns in every pillar of the state have perpetuated a state of permanent uncertainty in such a way that
nothing in any area of economy can be planned and implemented with foreseeable, dependable or predictable timeline.
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistans-independence-day-message-to-government-and-people-of-pakistan

41. Diplomatic territory on the national activity map…
GEOGRAPHICAL
LOCATION
AFGHANISTAN
CHINA AND SOUTH
ASIA
PAKISTAN
IRAN
MIDDLE
EAST
DEFENCE
CAPABILITY
POLITICAL & CIVIL
SOCIETY
LEADERSHIP?
NATURAL &
HUMAN
RESOURCES
ECONOMIC &
INVESTMENT
POTENTIAL
In today’s globally and economically interconnected world diplomacy is an art that keeps a country on the safe side economically and militarily in a highly
unpredictable world of today. Diplomatic activity, therefore, is the most sensitive of all other activities on the National Activity Map.
Diplomacy is not a day-to-day affair. It is considered as the backbone of a country’s National Strategic Vision and Goals. Governments come and go but
the National Strategic Vision and Goals do not change with the changes in and around a country. A country’s vigilant leaders always remain fully
cognizant of developments in and around borders of their countries.
It would not be surprising at all if a student of international affairs described the diplomatic consequences of a war other than military and military
actions across the Muslim world in one sentence: “The end of the political Muslim world will be prevented only by an unthinkable, unimaginable and
unbelievable
miracle.”
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/america-the-great-game-and-the-greater-middle-east-an-undiscussed-perspectiveunveiling-the-birth-of-conspiracy-theories

42. Military territory on the national activity map…
THEORY OF
PREEMPTION
NEED FOR
LEGISLATIVE
COVER
PSY-OPS
AND
MILITARY
WEB
CONFUSING
MILITARY AND
POLITICAL TACTICS
MILITARY
OPERATION
OTHER THAN
WAR
9/11 is a turning point in the history of diplomacy and military in a sense that the unilateral and multilateral application of the
theory of preemptive strike and the concept of military operation other than war in war theaters in almost all continents of the
world have exposed the political and military leaders to new challenges. The political leaders have to justify the social, economic
and diplomatic consequences of involvement in externally advised or internally planned military action within and outside a
country. Similarly, military leaders have to seek parliamentary cover prior to involvement in war against terror in and around a
country. Consequently, not only the political and military leaders are under tremendous pressures to justify their actions and the
impact of those actions on five territories of National Activity Map.
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/malala-mishap-and-global-media-scenario-in-retrospect-taliban-and-pakistan and
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/the-weaknesses-of-the-muslims

43. National Action Plan from Civil Society’s Perspective
Social Territory: Action
Political Territory: Action
Economic Territory: Action
Diplomatic Territory: Action
Military Territory: Action

44. Highlights of the National Action Plan from civil
society’s perspective
SOCIAL ACTIVITY: ACTION
In order to make its voice heard, the civil society needs to get organized, create public pressure groups, personal
security and social response platforms and pick up their politically uninfluenced and unbiased civil society leaders.
POLITICAL ACTIVITY: ACTION
Civil society needs to come up with its own selection process and create platforms for the nomination of candidates
for national and provincial assemblies and the senate. The right of selecting a candidate must be taken back from
the political party leaders.
Civil Society has to develop a mechanism for the investigation of public complaints against the office holders of the
four pillars of the state and take the culprits to courts and judicial council no matter how highly placed and
important they are and see that the justice is done.
Presently ongoing superior court proceedings in NRO and other cases have established beyond any doubt that the
constitution of Pakistan is seriously flawed and evidently provides shameful cover to criminals once they are
elected. These flaws need to be pointed out by the civil society for immediate review and appropriate correction.
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: ACTION
The government of Pakistan does not have a National Economic Vision, Natural and Human Resource Potential and
Performance Map and rationalized Public Administration Expenditure Manuel. The bureaucracy does not have a
“Public Service Code of Conduct” that binds it to remain open and available to ideas and projects of national
importance. Presidential immunity is used by section officers and federal secretaries for hiding incompetence,
negligence, indifference and corruption at every level of state management operation. Civil Society has to create
platforms for addressing the highlighted state management loopholes.

45. Highlights of the National Action Plan from civil
society’s perspective
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY: ACTION
Pakistan’s ideal geographical location makes it one of the most fortunate countries in the world but the
situation in and around Pakistan has made it the most unfortunate and rightly or wrongly the most ridiculed
piece of land. How to reverse this situation to Pakistan’s advantage.
The key for that is the proper evaluation of Pakistan’s tangible and intangible elements of national power and
their reconfiguration for proper positioning and utilization of country’s ideal geographical location, its rich
natural and human resources, its incomparably unique economic and investment potential, its one of the
finest armed forces in the world.
MILITARY ACTIVITY: ACTION
It will not be inappropriate and out of place to blame Pakistan’s military commanders for the overall mess
Pakistan is in. So far Pakistan’s military commanders have repeatedly jumped in to put the country’s
democracy back on track but always gifted Pakistanis a much bigger mess before they left. Now instead of
trying another way out in an old manner it will be advisable to use the civil society giving them military cover
in getting their right to self-govern back to them in its true sense. How that can be done? That can be done
only by mobilizing “Influence Groups” in every walk of life through “Specific Self-Governance Tasks” within a
given timeline.

46. The Way Out…
SOCIAL
MILITARY
POLITICAL
NATIONAL
ACTIVITY
PUZZLE
DIPLOMATIC
ECONOMIC
NATIONAL
EMERGENCY
PLAN
Creation and integration of territories on National Activity Map
When those who are given the mandate to govern make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to
show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right
to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose.

47. Growth in Emerging Markets: Pakistan, a leaderless leader in
economic growth potential among emerging markets
http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistan-a-leaderless-leader-in-economic-growth-potential-among-emerging-markets-paper
THE PAPER
READING LIST

48. Some more reading material…

49. Some more reading material…