deals with lack of quality in modern day research and the poor reliability of data generated

1. Research Quality and Data
Reliability
-B.V.Raghunandan, SVS College, Bantwal
Post-Graduate Department of Economics,
St.Aloysius College, Mangalore
August 2, 2012

2. Research
• Advancement of Discipline
• Relation between Variables
• Basis for Policy Framing
• Initially, divorced from market and
commercialisation
• Soundly entrenched in Philosophy
• Product of Thinking rather than a
product emerging from Laboratory

3. Trend-Changers
• Invention of a
Laboratory
• Structured Research
• Topical Research
• Too many Assumptions
• Marketable Research
• Irrelevant Study
• Vested Interests

4. Emergence of Statistics
• By the Turn of Twentieth Century
• Averages, Dispersion, Correlation and Regression and their
removal from Reality
• Correlation and Causation Differentiated Initially, but are
treated the Same Now
• Sample was regarded with suspicion initially, but now only
samples are used
• Convenience Sample

5. Exponential Growth of Statistics
• Every Discipline Adopted It
• Sample Surveys became the
Order of the Day
• Convenience Sample Became
Dominant
• Governments’ Information
Needs
• Usage of Computers increased
the Capacity of Data
Processing
• Research by Pharmaceutical
Companies
• More Precautions in
Healthcare and Clean
Surrounding

6. Forecasting & Risk Management
• Probability used for
Forecasting
• Standard Deviation and
Beta came to be used
to Measure the level of
Risk
• Usage of Derivatives for
Risk Management

7. Aftermath
• Human Judgement
Sidelined
• Holistic Approach became
Rare
• Creation of Unnecessary
Alarms
• Predictions Became
Meaningless
• Fear became Predominant
• Medicines became Complex
• Natural Immunity is lost
• Unnecessary and Unwanted
Information

8. Dangers
• People Started Dying out of Medicines and Treatment Rather Than
Due to The Ailment
• A Totally Artificial Life
• Unrealistic Benchmarks of Development
• Man became a Bigger Parasite
• Information Did not Lead to Knowledge
• Man has Become a Contradiction of Nature
• Research Aimed at Enslavement People
• Band Wagon Mentality

9. Contribution of Market
• Commodities Market lead to
Incurable Inflation
• Stock Market Caused Bankruptcy
of Individuals, Companies and
Governments
• Popularising Unnecessary Goods
and Services
• Introduction of Harmful Products
• Usage of Undesirable Process of
Production
• Highly Dangerous Preservatives
and Raw Materials
• Cost and Profit have Priority over
the Customers
• Hedonistic Culture

10. Perversions of Society
• People Living in a Reported World
• People Losing Sense of Right and Wrong
• Confusion due to Support for Contradictory Principles
• Universal Presence of Prejudiced Data
• Inability to Understand the Completeness of the Data
• Giving Research Tag to Statistical Surveys

11. Questioning the Theories
• In 1973, ‘A Random Walk
Down Wall Street’ by Burton
G. Malkiel
• “Developments in the
market are at random and
unpredictable”
• “It is impossible to
outperform the market
without assuming additional
risk”
• “past can not be a guide to
the future”

12. Black Swan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb
• error of comparing real-
world randomness with the
"structured randomness”
• Impossibility of possessing
all the information
• Small unknown variations
in data can have a major
impact
• Flawed theories based on
empirical data that is
insufficient

13. Reinventing Research & Data
• Question the Premises
• Comparison of Forecasting and Actuals
• Determining the Validity of Gregorian Calendar
• Questioning the Length of Period of Study
• Study Abandoned in Case of Availability of Insufficient Data
• Holistic Approach
• Reducing the Importance of Samples

14. Accountability of Research Institutes
• Publishing Failure in Prediction
• Maintaining a Track Record of Failures
• Determining the Percentage of Failure on which the
Model Has to be Changed
• Public Knowledge of Methodology Used
• Penalty for Vested Interest Findings
• Penalty for Avoidable Doomsday Prediction

15. Thank You