1. Looking Beyond the Numbers
Association Executives of North Carolina
February 8, 2013

2. Understanding a Public Opinion Survey
 Public Opinion Surveys are highly accurate – the real
question is how reflective is the size of your data sets to the
population you are trying to understand.
 A survey is not a predictor of behavior. A survey is a reflection
of opinions and attitudes based upon the information that is
presented.
 All surveys contain a mathematical margin of error as well as
human error.
 Public Opinion Surveys should be used as a roadmap for your
messaging strategy, not the answers to your questions.
 Learn to look beyond the numbers to gain a better
understanding of how to communicate best with your target
audience.

3. North Carolina is a Conservative State
If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in your political
beliefs?
N=600
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
Liberal
25.0% Moderate
20.0% Conservative
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Liberal Moderate Conservative
The Ideological Center of North Carolina Voters is 22.9 points to the right
(43.2-20.3 = 22.9)

4. North Carolina is Moderate to Conservative
If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative in your political
beliefs?
35% 32.2%
30%
23.7% Very Somewhat Somewhat Very
25% N= Moderate
Liberal Liberal Conservative Conservative
19.5% Republican 201 1.0% 0.5% 17.4% 33.3% 43.8%
20% Democrat 267 16.9% 20.6% 38.2% 11.2% 7.5%
11.2% Unaffiliated 125 7.2% 8.8% 41.6% 16.0% 24.8%
15% 9.3% Tea Party 66 1.5% 3.0% 10.6% 21.2% 63.6%
White 459 8.0% 8.0% 31.3% 21.6% 27.1%
10% Black 115 9.6% 25.2% 36.5% 10.4% 13.0%
Male 288 7.6% 8.7% 30.2% 21.9% 27.1%
4.2%
5% Female 312 10.9% 13.5% 34.0% 17.3% 20.5%
0%
N=600

5. Where You Stand in Your Universe
Looking at the political ideology of voters who have a favorable opinion of Barrack
Obama and those who have a favorable opinion of Pat McCrory, we can learn:
Favorable Obama Favorable McCrory
45.0% 60.0%
40.0% 50.0%
35.0% 40.0%
30.0%
25.0% 30.0% Liberal
20.0% Liberal 20.0%
15.0% 10.0% Moderate
10.0% Moderate
0.0% Conservative
5.0% Conservative
0.0%
The Ideological Center for President Obama is -22 to the left of 0, which means he
is 44.9 points to the left of North Carolina voters. Governor McCrory is 41.2 points
to the right of 0, which means he is 18.3 points to the right of North Carolina
Voters.

6. Now Here How You Need to Look at North Carolina
 Republicans are 76.6 points to the right of 0 so they are 53.7 points to the right of center
of NC Voters.
 Democrats are -18.8 points to the left of 0, so they are 41.7 points to the left of center of
NC Voters.
 Unaffiliated Voters are 24.8 points to the right of 0, so they are 1.9 points to the right of
center of NC Voters.
 President Obama is 98.6 points away from Republicans, so now you see why they view
him as a liberal.
 Governor McCrory is 60 points to the right of Democrats, so now you see why they view
him as a conservative.
 Republicans and Democrats are 95.4 points apart, so now you see why the two Parties
are polarized.
 Unaffiliated Voters are 41.7 points to the right of Democrats and they are 53.7 points to
the left of Republicans, so now you see why they feel like they have few choices in
candidates.
 And yes, Unaffiliated Voters are closer to Democrats than they are to Republicans, which
is why North Carolina is a purple state trending blue.